Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Any talk of disruption of the land bridge or blockading Irish traffic transiting the UK would be like Canada trying to blockade intra-US traffic between the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The consequences would be at the very least trade sanctions.

They wouldn’t be blocking Irish trade but intra EU trade.

Not only that but they would be disrupting a large number of multinational companies who would undoubtedly take legal action and also start to see the UK as an unreliable, rogue state willing to damage business for the sake of jingoism and extreme nationalism. So basically it would be the UK writing its own economic epitaph and joining the fringe of rogue states like Russia, that are seen as unstable and high risk to invest in or transact through.

David McWilliams makes that point in the article linked to further back in the thread. If they go down the No Deal and pariah state route, their international reputation will take an absolute hammering.

jm08

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They can't.

That is illegal under WTO.

As well as that, Irish trucks have to pay a tax to use England's roads. So much per trip or about £1200 per annum (as far as I can remember).

declanflynn

How did the holyhead area vote in the referendum

volchitsa

jm08 wrote: »

As well as that, Irish trucks have to pay a tax to use England's roads. So much per trip or about £1200 per annum (as far as I can remember).

Really?? Would that be legal under EU free movement rules?

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is illegal under WTO rules to obstruct the trade of a neighbor through your territory like that.

It would be a very dumb thing to try and do.

Forget WTO.

The UK signed up to TIR in 1949.

They need it stuff that goes though the EU eg. Switzerland. There's only about one ferry a week to Norway and there are weekly trains these days from China.

Air is expensive and ships are slow so there's trucks and rail from North Africa, Ex Soviet republics, Middle East

Strazdas

declanflynn wrote: »

How did the holyhead area vote in the referendum

For Leave. We don't have any precise figures for the town but we know Anglesey voted Leave and the suspicion is that Holyhead would have been strongly pro-Leave given the town's demographics.

BluePlanet

On Mariane Finucane there was somebody saying 'we should capitulate on the backstop!'; literally said that.
I didn't catch his name.
Why are they giving these ppl airtime?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Off topic posts deleted.

Leroy42

The main problem is that Brexit cannot, and isn't designed to, fix the very real issues that resulted in 17.4m people voting for it.

In fact the last 3 years have shown that it will continue to get worse rather than better.

Look at Johnson handing out extra spending promises. This is money that has been held back from these services, like NHS and police, with serious effects on real people just so Tories can hand it out when it suits them to.

Whilst Brexit will likely make the economy worse, more serious is the effects it is having on politics and society.

Mancomb Seepgood

BluePlanet wrote: »

On Mariane Finucane there was somebody saying 'we should capitulate on the backstop!'; literally said that.
I didn't catch his name.
Why are they giving these ppl airtime?

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".


The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

jm08

volchitsa wrote: »

Really?? Would that be legal under EU free movement rules?

As far as I know it is. Its just like a road tax for foreign trucks. In France there are tolls.

PeadarCo

Mancomb Seepgood wrote:

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Why is this line being entertained any more. German car manufacturers won't put pressure on the German government and haven't. We are 3 years on from the Brexit vote and when is this pressure coming? From memory the German automotive industry have come out with statements to the effect that they value the integrity of the EU single market and customs union above a brexit deal.

jm08

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Yes, it was Ray Bassett.

Jonathan Powell (who was the UK's Chief Negotiator for the GFA, reckons that Boris will dump the DUP.

Summary here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/johnson-will-abandon-dup-for-free-trade-deal-jonathan-powell-predicts-1.3976861

There was a woman on from one of the universities and who does a lot of work around the border area, and she was saying that the real big worry is Preti Patel and her abolishing of Human Rights agenda.

Strazdas

PeadarCo wrote: »

Why is this line being entertained any more. German car manufacturers won't put pressure on the German government and haven't. We are 3 years on from the Brexit vote and when is this pressure coming? From memory the German automotive industry have come out with statements to the effect that they value the integrity of the EU single market and customs union above a brexit deal.

It goes back to the deeply mistaken idea that the EU is a mere trading bloc and nothing else, concerned solely with balancing the books.

Lackadaisical

First Up wrote: »

I gave a comparison between the landbridge and direct ferry on the same route. Of course it depends where you are starting from and where you are going but a lot of Irish exporters have been using the landbridge.

Everyone in that business is re-calibrating to prepare for Brexit fall-out, including the chaos at UK ports. Thats why we now have ferries serving Cork/Santander, Dublin/Cherbourg and Dublin/Antwerp.

TBH, I don't think the Brittany Ferries services are aimed at the freight market. They may be proving the route works, but it's firmly aimed at family holidays to Northern Spain and the Pont Aven is probably far too luxurious to be a freight ferry. It's very much about relatively cruise-inspired holiday travel. It's actually always been a really nice way of getting to France.

We should be ensuring that suitable vessels are available for Cork or Rosslare to France. I would hope they've at least ear marked ferries we could bring in should the demand suddenly go way up.

First Up

jm08 wrote:

As far as I know it is. Its just like a road tax for foreign trucks. In France there are tolls.

The tolls apply to everyone.

volchitsa

jm08 wrote: »

As far as I know it is. Its just like a road tax for foreign trucks. In France there are tolls.

Yeah but French people pay those too, so there's no possible conflict with the rules of free movement.

First Up

Lackadaisical wrote:

TBH, I don't think the Brittany Ferries services are aimed at the freight market. They may be proving the route works, but it's firmly aimed at family holidays to Northern Spain and the Pont Aven is probably far too luxurious to be a freight ferry. It's very much about relatively cruise-inspired holiday travel. It's actually always been a really nice way of getting to France.

Cork/Roscoff is mostly for holiday runs but Cork/Santander is very much a trucker route (and vessel.)

Lackadaisical wrote:

We should be ensuring that suitable vessels are available for Cork or Rosslare to France. I would hope they've at least ear marked ferries we could bring in should the demand suddenly go way up.

Not sure how "we" are supposed to ensure that. Commercial demand will decide the routes, although I wouldn't rule out some EU intervention to encourage ferry operators to try a new service or two.

Lackadaisical

First Up wrote: »

Not sure how "we" are supposed to ensure that. Commercial demand will decide the routes, although I wouldn't rule out some EU intervention to encourage ferry operators to try a new service or two.

By ensuring that the contingencies are in place, even if that means hiring ships that are ultimately not used. The EU and the state need to be prepared.

There probably isn't much spare capacity hanging around doing nothing, but I'm sure something could be pulled off at relatively short notice to add a few extra ferries to the route, even if it meant temporarily subsidising them and paying a premium for short notice leases / short term leases until something more permanent could be put in place.

The economic costs of disrupted trade would far outweigh any potentially wasted public spend on this.

Leaving it to commercial companies to just react to demand could result in a serious mess as they may not react quickly enough or may be over cautious about putting capacity in place with a prospect of Brexit not than happening.

fly_agaric

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".


The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

I understand giving alternative views an airing occasionally but thought it was odd when 2 - 3 of them on that panel were coming out with very servile stuff (pretty much "drop the backstop" [somehow] & hope + pray the Brexiters forgive us for the insolence).
Had to turn it off.

declanflynn

Strazdas wrote: »

declanflynn wrote: »

How did the holyhead area vote in the referendum

For Leave. We don't have any precise figures for the town but we know Anglesey voted Leave and the suspicion is that Holyhead would have been strongly pro-Leave given the town's demographics.

A hard brexit will really help them, all they had going for them was Irish people leaving a few pound in the town while passing tru, it's a while since I went tru it, if memory serves me right it was a right poo hole, let them have their brexit

First Up

The ferry operators have a good handle on demand and customer preferences. They talk to them all the time.

Subsidies have very limited scope; they can be used creatively to encourage companies to try a new service but not to interfere with competition.

declanflynn

PeadarCo wrote: »

Mancomb Seepgood wrote:

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Why is this line being entertained any more. German car manufacturers won't put pressure on the German government and haven't. We are 3 years on from the Brexit vote and when is this pressure coming? From memory the German automotive industry have come out with statements to the effect that they value the integrity of the EU single market and customs union above a brexit deal.

Plus the Brits wont be able to afford a German car after brexit, actually some of them wont need a car to get to work anyway

declanflynn

jm08 wrote: »

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

I didn't hear all of it but it was probably Ray Bassett who has been a backer of "Irexit".

The economist Jim Power (remember him?) was also on the panel and stated that the German car manufacturers would likely put pressure on the German government to row back on the backstop. Hopefully this is about as likely to be true as his predictions of a soft landing for the Celtic Tiger in 2007.

Yes, it was Ray Bassett.

Jonathan Powell (who was the UK's Chief Negotiator for the GFA, reckons that Boris will dump the DUP.

Summary here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/johnson-will-abandon-dup-for-free-trade-deal-jonathan-powell-predicts-1.3976861

There was a woman on from one of the universities and who does a lot of work around the border area, and she was saying that the real big worry is Preti Patel and her abolishing of Human Rights agenda.

The uk should have had Jonathan Powell leading their negotiating team if he would have agreed to do it, he seems to have all the traits of a good negotiator and has a certain charm as well

FrancieBrady

I wonder has anyone modelled how much Brexit will be worth to the Irish exchequer.
It seems to be assumed that there will be goods flooding across from NI into the south. But if the economy in Britain tanks the very real likelihood is goods will be flooding north, as things get more expensive and scarce there surely?

Capt'n Midnight

volchitsa wrote: »

Yeah but French people pay those too, so there's no possible conflict with the rules of free movement.

From what I gather the French put more tolls on the routes from Germany to Spain ( / direction ) but less on those from Paris to the Med ( \ direction )

In Switzerland the trick was to have an annual vignette for €90 odd euro for motorway travel. Cheap for locals who use it daily. But very expensive for German tourists using it on a holiday round trip.

Europeans can be sneaky.

Mancomb Seepgood

fly_agaric wrote: »

I understand giving alternative views an airing occasionally but thought it was odd when 2 - 3 of them on that panel were coming out with very servile stuff (pretty much "drop the backstop" [somehow] & hope + pray the Brexiters forgive us for the insolence).
Had to turn it off.

Agreed.It was painful stuff to listen to.Jonathan Powell was making a lot of sense though.

Capt'n Midnight

First Up wrote: »

The ferry operators have a good handle on demand and customer preferences. They talk to them all the time.

Subsidies have very limited scope; they can be used creatively to encourage companies to try a new service but not to interfere with competition.

Oh, the UK know all about Ferry subsidies.

They are handing out millions to the French and Danish ferry companies because the contracts were dated at the original leave date and not from when Brexit starts.

They have paid millions to a company that they banned from using ferries in a no-contest because they agreed to pay millions to a company that didn't even have any ferries.

Joe_ Public

Incredible waffle, if not downright evasion, from James (not so) Cleverly on sky news earlier this morning. I know we expect as much from these people now but i really had to bite down hard at what was spewing forth from his mouth. He started off with the usual checklist of great recent conservative achievements while in office - more people in work, lowest unemployment since 1970s, wages growing, businesses looking to invest in UK etc - while, naturally, ignoring the obvious caveats of more and more people forced into low grade, zero contract hour jobs with continuing rises in in-work poverty and working families accessing food banks as a result. Not to mention the fact that foreign companies are mostly looking to the UK as an investment opportunity as the pound spirals and some juicy cheap bargains suddenly loom on the horizon.

The question then turned to the £1.8bn Johnson is pledging to upgrade 20 hospitals and where the money was coming from. "It's coming from economic growth," Cleverly replied. But growth is only at 2009 levels, the interviewer pointed out. No problem, Cleverly countered. With Crossrail, freeports and other big projects, these would spur economic growth and provide more tax receipts for the exchequer. So you're talking about future growth, the interviewer shot back, which means the money now will have to be borrowed? Upon which Cleverly instantly launched into a rant against Labour and all the billions of unfunded pledges it was throwing out. At which point my irony-ometer self-combusted and i had to change the channel to rescue something for the day ahead!

Lackadaisical

First Up wrote: »

The ferry operators have a good handle on demand and customer preferences. They talk to them all the time.

Subsidies have very limited scope; they can be used creatively to encourage companies to try a new service but not to interfere with competition.

In a crisis, it's quite possible European and domestic competition law would be waived or at least made flexible temporarily in that specific area. The state will likely be able to directly intervene in the market if it has to keep goods moving until things are normalised.

As long as the measures are proportionate, limited and justifiable there are ways of doing that. A crisis is a crisis.

Also just because the UK managed to completely botch their recent efforts at ferry subsidisation, doesn't mean that Ireland will.