Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

There is a thing called Sunk Cost Fallacy, I think the Brexiteers are there now.

First Up

Lackadaisical wrote:

In a crisis, it's quite possible European competition law would be waived temporarily in that specific area. The state will likely be able to directly intervene in the market if it has to keep goods moving until things are normalised.

Not really. Greece doesn't get subsidies because their goods have to go through the Balkans to get to the rest of the EU.

There are numerous sea (and even more air) routes between Ireland and the other 26. If there was a short term logjam as part of the UK's chaotic departure, it is possible the EU would intervene but it would be very temporary and I can't think of what it could be.

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

Not really. Greece doesn't get subsidies because their goods have to go through the Balkans to get to the rest of the EU.

There are numerous sea (and even more air) routes between Ireland and the other 26. If there was a short term logjam as part of the UK's chaotic departure, it is possible the EU would intervene but it would be very temporary and I can't think of what it could be.

Let's be honest. Ireland is seen as a better EU member state.

We legalised abortion and gay marriage by referendum. We largely reject xenophobic populism. The country is a tonic when you look at the likes of Poland and Hungary, electing right wing authoritarian governments.

Greece regularly brings up the alleged war reparations owed to it by Germany.

We're more liked. The EU sees more value in actively ensuring we prosper.

First Up

murphaph wrote:

Let's be honest. Ireland is seen as a better EU member state.

Irrelevant. If Ireland or Irish companies got any preferential help, Greece would be in like a shot and EU Competition rules would support them.

Capt'n Midnight

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The question then turned to the £1.8bn Johnson is pledging to upgrade 20 hospitals and where the money was coming from. "It's coming from economic growth," Cleverly replied. But growth is only at 2009 levels, the interviewer pointed out. No problem, Cleverly countered. With Crossrail, freeports and other big projects, these would spur economic growth and provide more tax receipts for the exchequer. So you're talking about future growth, the interviewer shot back, which means the money now will have to be borrowed? Upon which Cleverly instantly launched into a rant against Labour and all the billions of unfunded pledges it was throwing out. At which point my irony-ometer self-combusted and i had to change the channel to rescue something for the day ahead!

economic growth ?

The BoE are saying there's a one in three chance of a recession , and that's based on them getting a deal.


There's also HS2 which, based on every other similar project ever, is due to go over budget by £50Bn

And Heathrow runway three.

And the £10Bn tax cut Boris handed out to win the leadership.

And the £80Bn a year the economy has lagged behind the rest of the OECD because of Brexit.

No costings yet on the "Free Ports" but expect that they will cannibalise existing tax revenues.



And to offset all of that they'll save £8.9Bn a year,
or rather they will after the divorce bill has been paid.

BluePlanet

brickster69 wrote: »

What part of " the withdrawal agreement and backstop are dead. The UK are leaving with or without a deal on 31st of October" do you not understand.

The EU have said there will be no more negotiations, if that is the case then surely it is good to prepare and inform people what will happen in that case.

There seems to be a belief in the UK, in it's media and from politicians that there are or could be more negotiations.
This is not the case.
The UK is only a member of the EU right now is because the UK government, along with EU27 signed the "Agreement to Extend Brexit".
Are you familiar with the text of that agreement?
You should be.

Please review. The only negotiation possible is the Political Declaration toward a future relationship.

Expecting the EU to rip up the agreement is non-sense.
That's just not the way international relations work.

Now maybe the UK could ask the EU to remove it's signature from that document; that might be something to discuss.
It would immediately drop their membership of the EU.
But since the Agreement to Extend Brexit has a timelimt defined - Oct 31, we may as well just let it bear out.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

UK election - DUP no longer needed - customs border in the Irish Sea.

That is the only timeline that offers a credible solution.

The only other alternative is for Ireland to leave the customs union and align with the British state (which will never happen).

otnomart

marno21 wrote: »

Paul Ryan was the one doing the most pushing behind the bill. He was highly supportive of it.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) was the one who blocked it.

Just seen this:
"Tom Cotton and 44 other Republican senators have signed a letter pledging to support Britain in the event of no-deal and irrespective of how Brexit occurs advocate for a future trade deal with the U.K."


https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1158082435965489152

Enzokk

otnomart wrote: »

Just seen this:
"Tom Cotton and 44 other Republican senators have signed a letter pledging to support Britain in the event of no-deal and irrespective of how Brexit occurs advocate for a future trade deal with the U.K."

That is interesting, but the problem here for the UK is that the Senate has no say over trade deals. That falls to the Ways and Means Committee in the House holds that power so it seems to be a little meaningless.

UK hopes for quick US trade deal are pie in Brexit sky

This week the issue of Brexit made it across the Atlantic as members of US Congress voiced their concern about its impact on Northern Ireland.

As the new British government veers closer to a no-deal scenario, concern is growing among the politically influential Irish-American lobby about the implications for the Belfast Agreement.

And later in the article you have this quote from the chair of the committee,

“There should be no compromise,” on the backstop he told The Irish Times on the eve of Johnson’s visit to Belfast. “The Good Friday Agreement [or Belfast Agreement] has worked as well as anybody could have imagined. It brought to rest the longest-standing political conflict in the history of the western world, and I don’t think there’s any reason for the Irish Government to back away.”

His intervention follows comments by House speaker Nancy Pelosi in which she said that Congress will not endorse a trade agreement between the United States and the UK if the Belfast Agreement is jeopardised.

In any case you would think there are more pressing things for senators to worry about right now than a trade deal they have little influence over. The rise of white supremacist terrorist should be at the front of their thinking if you ask me.

lawred2

Enzokk wrote: »

That is interesting, but the problem here for the UK is that the Senate has no say over trade deals. That falls to the Ways and Means Committee in the House holds that power so it seems to be a little meaningless.

UK hopes for quick US trade deal are pie in Brexit sky



And later in the article you have this quote from the chair of the committee,



In any case you would think there are more pressing things for senators to worry about right now than a trade deal they have little influence over. The rise of white supremacist terrorist should be at the front of their thinking if you ask me.

It should but remember this is the era of "very fine people on both sides"

Imreoir2

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

UK election - DUP no longer needed - customs border in the Irish Sea.

That is the only timeline that offers a credible solution.

The only other alternative is for Ireland to leave the customs union and align with the British state (which will never happen).

Or, hard crash in November with much wailing and gnashing of teeth (in the UK), probably followed in the medium term with a chastened UK returning to the table and agreeing to whatever terms the EU imposes at that point while the UK itself faces the threat of disintegration. That could also happen easily enough.

Dont be at yourself

I think we’re likely to see the WA pushed through parliament against the government’s wishes, with a general election triggered as a result. Without mass deselections of dissenting MPs, it will be just another can-kicking exercise, of course.

eire4

Enzokk wrote: »

That is interesting, but the problem here for the UK is that the Senate has no say over trade deals. That falls to the Ways and Means Committee in the House holds that power so it seems to be a little meaningless.

UK hopes for quick US trade deal are pie in Brexit sky



And later in the article you have this quote from the chair of the committee,



In any case you would think there are more pressing things for senators to worry about right now than a trade deal they have little influence over. The rise of white supremacist terrorist should be at the front of their thinking if you ask me.

If you took a group photo of the 45 Republican senators they would look very very white and very very male. White supremacist's are part of their voter base so the only work they will be doing in regard to the rise of white supremacists killings will be to offer "thoughts and prayers".

Strazdas

eire4 wrote: »

If you took a group photo of the 45 Republican senators they would look very very white and very very male. White supremacist's are part of their voter base so the only work they will be doing in regard to the rise of white supremacists killings will be to offer "thoughts and prayers".

Those guys are a bunch of right wing / hard right Trump flunkies. The UK would want to think long and hard about having anything to do with them.

eire4

otnomart wrote: »

Just seen this:
"Tom Cotton and 44 other Republican senators have signed a letter pledging to support Britain in the event of no-deal and irrespective of how Brexit occurs advocate for a future trade deal with the U.K."


https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1158082435965489152

Tom Cotton must really have some ax to grind with Ireland as it was he who earlier this year all by himself blocked a bill passing the senate that would have allocated some visas not used by Australians to Irish people. Not sure why but to pass it had to be unanimous. The first vote was 93-7 in favour with all 7 no's being Republicans including Cotton. A second vote was held and was 99-1 with Cotton being the only no and he refused to budge.

GalwayMark

Probably someone that idolises Churchill and comes from the Bible Belt which despises social liberalism so there’s that plus he’s a bat**** neocon so that will keep Harris very pleased.

Strazdas

eire4 wrote: »

Tom Cotton must really have some ax to grind with Ireland as it was he who earlier this year all by himself blocked a bill passing the senate that would have allocated some visas not used by Australians to Irish people. Not sure why but to pass it had to be unanimous. The first vote was 93-7 in favour with all 7 no's being Republicans including Cotton. A second vote was held and was 99-1 with Cotton being the only no and he refused to budge.

He has form for writing letters too. He wrote one to Iran with his same bunch of Republican colleagues in 2015 telling them not to sign the nuclear deal with Obama.

The New York Daily News responded by calling Cotton and his pals "traitors".

GalwayMark

Trumps interactions with the NY Irish can help but it’s a wake up call to engage with Irish Americans beyond the usual shakedown fundraising and start implementing the birthright program more speedily. Cotton is Scotch Irish so there’s ancestral hatred from that period of history.

FrancieBrady

eire4 wrote: »

Tom Cotton must really have some ax to grind with Ireland as it was he who earlier this year all by himself blocked a bill passing the senate that would have allocated some visas not used by Australians to Irish people. Not sure why but to pass it had to be unanimous. The first vote was 93-7 in favour with all 7 no's being Republicans including Cotton. A second vote was held and was 99-1 with Cotton being the only no and he refused to budge.

Bizarre that he refused to take a phone call from Coveney and sent an aide in his place to a meeting in the Irish Embassy about the issue.
Seems to have an already well established dislike.

reslfj

volchitsa wrote: »

Yeah but French people pay those too, so there's no possible conflict with the rules of free movement.

Freedom of movement for people has nothing to do with movement in mi/hour or km/hour.
It in not at all about people flying, walking, sailing, driving, going by train or whatever.


FoM for people is about the right to move your main/permanent address to another EU/EEA country with an obligation to have a paid job no later than 90 days after you started staying at your new address.

FoM is also about rights to seek and take a paid job in any EU/EEA country independently of which member state you live in.

If you say: "I move from London to Bristol next week" you are not going to tell about driving on the A4, but about you new job and new house in Bristol.

The house is likely not actually new, only new to you.

Free in the EU FoM has nothing to do with not costing money. It will cost you to move from e.g. Dublin to Paris. You will just be charged the the same as a French or any other EU citizen will be charged.

Lars

PS! FoM for goods will normally include some actual 'km/hour movement', while FoM for services very often, nowadays, are just delivered via computer or telecommunication fibres. Likewise is FoM for capital.

PSS! FoM for people has other rules too - for rich people, pensioners and for students.

GalwayMark

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Bizarre that he refused to take a phone call from Coveney and sent an aide in his place to a meeting in the Irish Embassy about the issue.
Seems to have an already well established dislike.

Summat to do with the Clintons perhaps the guys from Arkansas so there’s enough motive to go around or could’ve been influenced by Loyalist propaganda by someone like Larry Pratt president of GOA which is more hardline than the NRA

jm08

First Up wrote: »

Cork/Roscoff is mostly for holiday runs but Cork/Santander is very much a trucker route (and vessel.)

Not sure how "we" are supposed to ensure that. Commercial demand will decide the routes, although I wouldn't rule out some EU intervention to encourage ferry operators to try a new service or two.

I would presume that the Santander route is for fresh fruit and veg coming from Spain. Sailing time is 26.5 hours.

jm08

declanflynn wrote: »

The uk should have had Jonathan Powell leading their negotiating team if he would have agreed to do it, he seems to have all the traits of a good negotiator and has a certain charm as well

He stuck the GFA for 10 years. Some stamina! He is very much a straight talker who knows his detail. Similar type to Sabine.

Bit cynical

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

I think we’re likely to see the WA pushed through parliament against the government’s wishes, with a general election triggered as a result. Without mass deselections of dissenting MPs, it will be just another can-kicking exercise, of course.

This is unlikely I'm afraid. Parliament were the ones against the WA when the Tory government under May were trying to get it through. Johnson actually voted for it the last time is was put to parliament and rejected. It is not just the ERG; Labour are the biggest bloc. voting against the WA in favour of their own solution which is also unacceptable to the EU.

ThePanjandrum

eire4 wrote: »

If you took a group photo of the 45 Republican senators they would look very very white and very very male. White supremacist's are part of their voter base so the only work they will be doing in regard to the rise of white supremacists killings will be to offer "thoughts and prayers".

Just wondering how many MEPs Ireland has from minority ethnic backgrounds, could someone tell me? I'm sure that it must be a fair number because otherwise you'd be white supremacists.

tuxy

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Just wondering how many MEPs Ireland has from minority ethnic backgrounds, could someone tell me? I'm sure that it must be a fair number because otherwise you'd be white supremacists.

Over 50% of our MEPs are female so I think we are safe from being classified as white supremacists.

sameoldname

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Just wondering how many MEPs Ireland has from minority ethnic backgrounds, could someone tell me? I'm sure that it must be a fair number because otherwise you'd be white supremacists.

The Taoiseach is half Indian and gay. Is that why you specifically asked about MEP's I wonder?

Stop moaning ffs

There’s a video going around everyone’s raving about it or ranting about it.
an interview with Tony Blair. And he’s talking about the good Friday agreement and how we can’t stand by and let it be undone by brexit etc etc

6 beer rant I’m sorry, but it pisses me off no end you never ever see Mo Mowlam mentioned or given the respect and credit due for her vast efforts in the GFA. She had the toughest job of any of them by a long way and navigated it all so naturally without any prejudice or judgement.
And she’s been totally forgotten. Over there and here.

I’d donate firstborn to give either side even one person of her caliber and political savvy and humanity. Either side.

She doesn’t even get mentioned.
When was the last time any of us heard her name even?
They should be ashamed of themselves for that as well as everything else.
Sorry. Rant over.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I wonder has anyone modelled how much Brexit will be worth to the Irish exchequer.

It will be severely detrimental both to the national finances and to the government finances.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It seems to be assumed that there will be goods flooding across from NI into the south. But if the economy in Britain tanks the very real likelihood is goods will be flooding north, as things get more expensive and scarce there surely?

There will be smuggling both ways, in different goods. The preferrred direction of smuggling will alter from time to time in response to exchange rate movements and changes in UK and Irish tax policy. The smuggling market is extremely responsive.

I doubt if there will, initially, be a deluge of goods moving northwards. Sterling will tank, which will reduce the capacity of people in sterling-land to buy goods from euro-land. This will apply to smuggled and legit goods alike. Plus, significant shrinking of employment in NI, with consquent downward pressure on wages, will tend to reduce purchasing capacity anyway.

Stop moaning ffs

Peregrinus wrote: »

It will be severely detrimental both to the national finances and to the government finances.


There will be smuggling both ways, in different goods. The preferrred direction of smuggling will alter from time to time in response to exchange rate movements and changes in UK and Irish tax policy. The smuggling market is extremely responsive.

I doubt if there will, initially, be a deluge of goods moving northwards. Sterling will tank, which will reduce the capacity of people in sterling-land to buy goods from euro-land. This will apply to smuggled and legit goods alike. Plus, significant shrinking of employment in NI, with consquent downward pressure on wages, will tend to reduce purchasing capacity anyway.

In relation to the smuggling aspect, the top three things that are currently ‘smuggled’ (meaning people crossing the border right now innocently and otherwise) are Fuel(diesel petrol) tobacco/ cigarettes


And...

Washing up powder.

Seriously. There’s a substantial difference in cost on the last one between here and up there. So imagine the post brexit scenario.
The difference in price in the two regions will affect thousands of products. All of them.

Posting this again cos it’s fascinating. Brilliant sadly short podcast on what happens in NI post brexit from two experts.

‘University College London professor Ronan McCrea reflects on going viral in a media interview, and tells us why giving the straight facts is no longer working in public debate. Northern Ireland Retail Consortium director Aodhán Connolly explains what the impact will be on ordinary families the day after Brexit. We also hear from Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok on why checks on goods cannot be avoided.’

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-irish-passport/id1246162545?i=1000444975590