Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

NI registered cars never needed a sticker in the ROI, only GB registered ones.

We're in the height of the holiday season, lots of GB cars on the roads here now (usually Irish emigrants visiting "home"), just look at how few have either a GB sticker or EU blue plates.

reslfj

reslfj wrote: »

Oil is a dead commodity in the longer time frame needed to asses the viability of a state.

By 2050 Europe should be 'fossil free' and others will follow. Demand for oil will be lower and the expensive to produce oil from offshore sources will likely be of little value.

Lars

Most oil companies will abandon the lower performing North Sea fields simply due to the costs involved in running an offshore rig with low output.
Offshore wind generation will almost certainly replace oil as a source of income.

Nody

reslfj wrote: »

Oil is a dead commodity in the longer time frame needed to asses the viability of a state.

By 2050 Europe should be 'fossil free' and others will follow. Demand for oil will be lower and the expensive to produce oil from offshore sources will likely be of little value.

Lars

You do know that oil is used in plastics; right? Fossil free only refer to cars etc. but good luck of oil not remaining a commodity for decades to come. From chemicals, to non European countries use in cars, buildings etc. Oil is not going away any time soon even if we magically manage to stop using it in all the cars in Europe (not bloody likely).

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

I see that the GBP is still sliding and is now testing 92p = €1.

That is quite a psychological number.

Why is that in particular a psychological number?

I'm not sure if directly related to Brexit but

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49165896
The Harland and Wolff shipyard in Belfast is expected to be placed into administration later.
It puts 130 jobs at risk and could spell the end of the iconic business.
Its best known vessel is the Titanic, which was built at the yard between 1909 and 1911. At its height, Harland and Wolff employed more than 30,000 people.

Shipbuilding in Europe has been in terminal decline for decades, so this could have been inevitable, regardless of Brexit.

brickster69

InTheShadows wrote: »

He's off his rocker. The UK will rightfully do what's best for the UK.

There is a desperation slowly setting in now and it's only going to get worse.

Yep, Varadkar thought he was playing a big game of poker. Now he understands he is the chips.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not sure if directly related to Brexit but





Shipbuilding in Europe has been in terminal decline for decades, so this could have been inevitable, regardless of Brexit.

Was shocked to discover recently that it only employs 130 people. Some decline.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not sure if directly related to Brexit but





Shipbuilding in Europe has been in terminal decline for decades, so this could have been inevitable, regardless of Brexit.

Not particularly Brexit related as the owner is in trouble and trying to reorganize it. Can't tell whether Brexit is putting off potential buyers or customers.
Brexit came into it as of course the workers wanted the new PM to back the industry.

Capt'n Midnight

reslfj wrote: »

Oil is a dead commodity in the longer time frame needed to asses the viability of a state.

By 2050 Europe should be 'fossil free' and others will follow. Demand for oil will be lower and the expensive to produce oil from offshore sources will likely be of little value.

Lars

Scotland is well suited for wave and wind and they've a good bit of hydro. They could sell carbon credits to England.


Very rough rule of thumb CCGT gas power plants are twice as efficient as older coal power stations , because you can use the gas turbine exhaust to power a steam turbine too.

Also gas only emits half the CO2 as coal. So while gas is a fossil fuel you can save 75% on emissions when you replace the last of the coal plants. It's a huge step in the right direction once you use it to buy time to get more renewables online.

Like us Scotland has a lot of bogs. These could be used for carbon capture.


Or look at Norway for an example of how to plan for a future without fossil fuel, you set some of the money aside , and invest in alternatives too.

PeadarCo

InTheShadows wrote:

He's off his rocker. The UK will rightfully do what's best for the UK.

What's best for the UK is to stay in the EU. And if not stay in the EU accept the Withdrawal agreement. The EU will give the UK a better deal than it will get from anyone else. One of the big issues/lies of leave campaign was that laws were being enforced without the UKs consent(ignoring MEPs, European Council etc). That could well end up being the reality outside the EU. Change your laws or else in any trade negotiations with the US, China, India etc. Even when bargaining with the EU the UK has been left to trying to use a no deal as leverage.

Sam Russell

lawred2 wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

I see that the GBP is still sliding and is now testing 92p = €1.

That is quite a psychological number.

Why is that in particular a psychological number?

Well, it was at that figure about two years ago (temporally) and before that about five years ago (temporally), and before that about ten years ago (temporally), but other than those few times, it has been much better.

92p is close to an all time low for the GBP, but likely to go lower. That is significantly less than the IRP was worth. (€1= IRP0.787568) Sterling was always (nearly always) worth as much (until we diverged) then much more than the IRP.

How times have changed.

Water John

The UK has only 4 coal plants operating now. RWE plant closing March 2020, SSE plant March 2020, EDF Sept 2020.

BonnieSituation

Deleted User wrote: »

We're in the height of the holiday season, lots of GB cars on the roads here now (usually Irish emigrants visiting "home"), just look at how few have either a GB sticker or EU blue plates.

Funny that, I normally look out for reg's on car anyway as I'm a bit of a car nut. But just as I read this an Scottish reg Qashqai went by me and had a GB sticker on the boot.

It always struck me as an inelegant solution stuck in the past. Just get the Euro-style plates like EVERY other European country. Even Belarus has a European style plate with flag and abbreviation to the left of the plate.

The Brits just always have to be special.

BonnieSituation

brickster69 wrote: »

Yep, Varadkar thought he was playing a big game of poker. Now he understands he is the chips.

Point to me where he "understands this" please?

Strazdas

beggars_bush wrote: »

Where would Scotland get revenue to function as an independent state?

If countries like Lithuania, Finland and Slovenia can function as independent states, it would be no problem for a nation of 5m+ like Scotland at all.

Ultimate Seduction

Strazdas wrote: »

If countries like Lithuania, Finland and Slovenia can function as independent states, it would be no problem for a nation of 5m+ like Scotland at all.

The same can be said for Britain outside the EU.

Strazdas

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

The same can be said for Britain outside the EU.

One would assume that the plan is for Scotland to have some sort of preferential access to the Single Market or to be a full member of it.

The UK is talking about ripping up its trade deals and treaties of 50 years, withdrawing from the Single Market and Customs Union and with nothing to replace any of this with.

Ultimate Seduction

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

The same can be said for Britain outside the EU.

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

road_high

brickster69 wrote: »

Yep, Varadkar thought he was playing a big game of poker. Now he understands he is the chips.

Seems to be doing alright from what I can see. Not folding when the inane Uk pressure has been coming on. Nothing’s changed and if they want “no deal” then we are ready for that

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Seems to be doing alright from what I can see. Not folding when the inane Uk pressure has been coming on. Nothing’s changed and if they want “no deal” then we are ready for that

The 'campaign' of pressure really hasn't amounted to anything. If anything Martin cuffing Dooley's ear has demonstrated very clearly that the Irish government is a national government on the issue.

murphaph

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Funny that, I normally look out for reg's on car anyway as I'm a bit of a car nut. But just as I read this an Scottish reg Qashqai went by me and had a GB sticker on the boot.

It always struck me as an inelegant solution stuck in the past. Just get the Euro-style plates like EVERY other European country. Even Belarus has a European style plate with flag and abbreviation to the left of the plate.

The Brits just always have to be special.

The Danes do it as well. Rare enough to see a Europlate Danish car.

Seth Brundle

joe40 wrote: »

The British press and even Eoghan Harris in the independent are very critical of the Irish government stance on the backstop, with Varadker coming in for particular scorn.
But is the backstop purely an Irish concern.

I mean if the Irish government were to say ok abolish the backstop, would the rest of the EU say ok that will be fine amend the WA and trust the British promise of no need for a border.

Surely border integrity and single market standars are vital for all EU countries.

The backstop is designed to keep the existing legal status of NI (that the UK agreed to) in place. Removal of the backstop allows for the removal of that status and means that the people who identify as Irish in NI will legally lose that identity.
Also removal of the backstop along with the GFA requirement of having no border would effectively mean that the EU border would then be between ireland and mainland eurooe which is unacceptable

pixelburp

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

If politics is presentation, then Westminster is presenting an image of chaotic and slipshod governance, coupled with an eagerness to tear up existing trade deals (the existing exit agreement, and, more critically, the GFA). Hardly a smart move when approaching other nations to organise trade. It effectively says "we can't be trusted to honour a deal".

Their relative population is immaterial when the heads of state are showing themselves as out of touch and incapable of dealing with the realities of being "a 3rd country". There's a presumption at play that may cost their economy dearly.

road_high

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

That didn’t stop Russia imploding in on itself post USSR. Some would argue that it’s never really recovered from the fallout. Was the worlds second biggest economy st the time

MarinersBlues

joe40 wrote: »

The British press and even Eoghan Harris in the independent are very critical of the Irish government stance on the backstop, with Varadker coming in for particular scorn.
But is the backstop purely an Irish concern.

I mean if the Irish government were to say ok abolish the backstop, would the rest of the EU say ok that will be fine amend the WA and trust the British promise of no need for a border.

Surely border integrity and single market standars are vital for all EU countries.

Harris refers to "Vardakers backstop" as if Leo is unliaterly imposing this agreement on the UK on his own.
Both Harris and large elements of the British press are delibertly diverting debate away from the fact that the backstop was negotiated by both the UK and the EU.

It is part of a broad pro Brexit campaign strategy that builds most of their arguements on a false premise.
For example:
the "undemocratic backstop" was negotiated and agreed to by a democratically elected British gevernment.
There has never been a border - There was
No-one will implement a border - It will have to be implemented if there is no deal


The premise for many of the Brexit campaign arguements rarley get challenged on current affairs programs in Britain, which means most debates become a farce not remotley grounded in the real world.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, a country of some 60 million is not exactly a minnow in the global trading environment.

Of course it is. Look at the world's powers - the US, India and China along with the development of large regional trading blocs in Latin America and Africa. Post Brexit Britain won't have much to offer when you consider the devastation that's about to be wrought on its citizens so the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg can make another million or two.

Leroy42

But the argument is not whether Brexit Britain will continue to trade, but what level and on what basis it does so.

It comes down to ones understanding of whether being in the EU has actually benefited the UK in terms of trade. From everything that I have looked at it would appear that it certainly has gained significantly from its membership of the EU.

That is tacitly accepted by Brexiteers since they want a FTA with the EU, thus acknowledging that having a FT relationship with the EU is something even they accept as beneficial.

So will leaving the EU be detrimental to the economy of the UK? Yes, I have still yet to head a reasonable argument that says that Brexit will be beneficial to the UK economy.

On the while narrative around No Deal, and the attached we must respect the 'will of the people'. IT is very much saying that the politicians have failed to actually achieve anything but rather than accept failure they will simply give up and let the country pay the price. It is a very odd situation to be in.

Enzokk

Just a few tweets I found interesting this morning. The first one has been posted by ancapailldorcha already about Crispin Odey being a donor to Boris Johnson but he has also bet against UK firms in a no-deal Brexit. He made a lot of money betting against the GBP during the referendum as well.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1157967925925597184?s=20

To continue on the theme on Boris Johnson, here we have his promise of Brexit money to the NHS being nothing more than the NHS was promised before but held back. Apparently the NHS was promised £1.1b if they cut costs to spend on infrastructure but then when it was time to pay the money was withheld. So now Johnson has released this money again and it is the bulk of the extra money he has promised to the NHS. Some sneaky politicking going on here from the Tories. This is a thread if you want to open and read it.

https://twitter.com/sallygainsbury/status/1158041665736761344?s=20

And a final tweet to just get frustrated by,

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1158277729223159809?s=20

So Matt Hancock was of the opinion that parliament could stop no-deal. Seems that he has received new information and now he has changed his mind and is of the opinion that it cannot be stopped by parliament any longer.

Funny that, receiving new information and being allowed to change your mind. I bet he doesn't even see the irony of him using this as justification.

McGiver

murphaph wrote:

The Danes do it as well. Rare enough to see a Europlate Danish car.

They are "English lite" in fact. Many similarities to the English - former colonial empire, maritime nation as well, almost all their colonies gone, somewhat nationalist and exceptionalist as the English. Not a coincidence that they have an opt-out from the Euro (albeit it's only a show in reality)

But unlike England, they are much smaller, they are totally tied to the Single Market, thelargest EU economy at their doorstep, they have solid manufacturing base actually and hence they understand that the EU is a necessity. Key differences.

Not sure if the lack of EU plates is linked to this or not, but I'd say it is follows some of the Danish patterns I've observed.

BonnieSituation

murphaph wrote: »

The Danes do it as well. Rare enough to see a Europlate Danish car.

Fair. I don't see a lot of Danish cars. But still, it's not quite on the level of British exceptionalism.