Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Given the speculation about NI staying in the CU & SM, what will the ERG have to say?
As this will effectively shaft their DUP friends, will they back that proposal?

"Friends", the ERG would drop them in it tomorrow if it got them what they wanted.

To answer the question though no I don't think they would as they smell a no deal so now that's all they will settle for.

ambro25

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Yeah, figured. My background is biological sciences research which is unfortunately not terribly sought after or lucrative.

There's a bit of bio R&D ongoing here, but it's still only slowly building (syndrome of young universities in the chicken-&-egg situation, trying to lure high-profile academics).

More bioinformatics than biological as such, esp. secure medical analysis/devices (crossover with finance/banking security).

ancapailldorcha

Bigus wrote: »

Could you retrain for one of the many new bilion euro bio pharma plants just after been built here in Ireland , they’re crying out for high end people, according to my friend who’s been putting together the infrastructure. Bristol Meyer Squib, etc

Thanks Bigus. I might look into that.

Anyway, I think I've reached the point where I'm derailing the thread so I'd better stop.

Nody

Bit cynical wrote: »

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

Except of course when they want to go and create 10 free trade zones; then it's perfectly fine :P

Bit cynical

Nody wrote: »

Except of course when they want to go and create 10 free trade zones; then it's perfectly fine :P

True but these are normally very confined areas, not an entire province.

Bit cynical

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Heh the EU should scrap backstop and bring it back under different name, Northern Ireland Democratic Free Trade Area

The subject to EU rules and regulations trade area.
The Brussels Trading Exclave.

briany

Bit cynical wrote: »

The subject to EU rules and regulations trade area.
The Brussels Trading Exclave.

Could probably get that one past the general public, but not the ERG. they've positioned themselves as the vanguard of the revolution.

Professor Moriarty

briany wrote: »

Could probably get that one past the general public, but not the ERG. they've positioned themselves as the vanguard of the revolution.

In reality, the ERG don't give a damn about NI. England first, second and third.

ilovesmybrick

Joe_ Public wrote:

Talking of public transport, i read an article about Vienna recently in which it was mentioned that residents pay E1 per day for their travel pass, or E365 for an annual pass. The prices for tourists or other day trippers are fairly steep, which helps subsidize it. As far as i know their public transport systems dont run huge deficits like those here or across the pond. Go figure.

365 for the year and for zone's into other states its another couple of hundred a year, though the government heavily subsidises it,about 700 million a year. The idea is that public transport is a public service, not a profit making enterprise. Its actually not bad for tourists, you're looking at around 16 quid for a week pass, though if you're caught without a valid ticket they can be pretty unforgiving.

swampgas

Bit cynical wrote: »

Plus he's still got to get the overall WA through parliament and with Labour against it and a significant minority in his own party against it, that is very unlikely. And although he voted for it in the last vote, I think he did so knowing it would lose. I don't think he's a big fan of the WA either. What he's doing is making a virtue out of something he's more or less forced into.

Therefore if it is not a hard brexit, it will be something that no one is expecting.

On top of that I strongly suspect that Jeremy Corbyn is doing all he can (by doing nothing at all as opposition leader) to enable a hard or no-deal Brexit. He has always been against the EU, has always opposed membership, and has always stuck to his principles. He was the first party leader to call for Article 50 to be invoked, the day after the referendum result. He won't come out and actually admit that he's in favour of crashing out, but everything he does seems to confirm it.

Between Jeremy Corbyn, the DUP, the ERG, and a reckless Johnson as PM, I think a No Deal Brexit is the most likely outcome.

Sam Russell

swampgas wrote: »

Between Jeremy Corbyn, the DUP, the ERG, and a reckless Johnson as PM, I think a No Deal Brexit is the most likely outcome.

Well, they still have exactly the same three options, plus asking for a delay to get a second ref.

I think a second referendum is a dead duck because however it goes, it does not kill Brexit off. Say it goes 52:48 to remain, how can that be 'democratic', or the 'will of the people' ? (would say the Breiteers). It cannot be allowed to continue to devour UK politics, so no. The time for that has passed.

The WA is a bad deal, in that it gives little benefit to the UK, but takes a lot away. Many of the current trade deals will not roll over, but new ones require EU standards, so no chlorinated chicken. So they are worse off.

I think, if the HoC want to stop a No Deal, they have to vote NC in Gov, then create a Gov on National Unity, revoke Art 50, then pass legislation to make a second Brexit process impossible by requiring a two thirds majority for Art 50 to be invoked. Now a future HoC can overturn such a law, but it would require a majority in the HoL which might be a little tricky.

Will the HoC be able to do it?

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, they still have exactly the same three options, plus asking for a delay to get a second ref.

I think a second referendum is a dead duck because however it goes, it does not kill Brexit off. Say it goes 52:48 to remain, how can that be 'democratic', or the 'will of the people' ? (would say the Breiteers). It cannot be allowed to continue to devour UK politics, so no. The time for that has passed.

The WA is a bad deal, in that it gives little benefit to the UK, but takes a lot away. Many of the current trade deals will not roll over, but new ones require EU standards, so no chlorinated chicken. So they are worse off.

I think, if the HoC want to stop a No Deal, they have to vote NC in Gov, then create a Gov on National Unity, revoke Art 50, then pass legislation to make a second Brexit process impossible by requiring a two thirds majority for Art 50 to be invoked. Now a future HoC can overturn such a law, but it would require a majority in the HoL which might be a little tricky.

Will the HoC be able to do it?

I think that would bring arch Leave voters out on to the streets. Those without zimmer frames would be quite truculent. Their democratic entitlement to vote themselves out of a job must be respected.

20silkcut

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, they still have exactly the same three options, plus asking for a delay to get a second ref.

I think a second referendum is a dead duck because however it goes, it does not kill Brexit off. Say it goes 52:48 to remain, how can that be 'democratic', or the 'will of the people' ? (would say the Breiteers). It cannot be allowed to continue to devour UK politics, so no. The time for that has passed.

The WA is a bad deal, in that it gives little benefit to the UK, but takes a lot away. Many of the current trade deals will not roll over, but new ones require EU standards, so no chlorinated chicken. So they are worse off.

I think, if the HoC want to stop a No Deal, they have to vote NC in Gov, then create a Gov on National Unity, revoke Art 50, then pass legislation to make a second Brexit process impossible by requiring a two thirds majority for Art 50 to be invoked. Now a future HoC can overturn such a law, but it would require a majority in the HoL which might be a little tricky.

Will the HoC be able to do it?

A referendum on the type of Brexit with remain not an option might work.
Such a drastic action as a no deal brexit should be put to a public vote.
If the mandate is there for a no deal brexit it should be confirmed by a referendum.

One simple question, should the Uk leave the EU without a deal in place?
Yes/no
If that mandate fails to materialize then all sorts of can kicking can ensue.

Joe_ Public

I think it's unfair to suggest of Corbyn that he is a hard brexiteer who secretly wants a no deal crash-out. I know quite a few people hold this view, and i've seen it written by at least one serious commentator, but i dont believe it and i dont believe i've seen a scintilla of evidence in support of it in the 3 years since the referendum. I think corbyn can be criticised for many things, he has been weak on all the main issues no question, but the criticism can be overdone and the media, right and left, certainly does him no favours. On Sky earlier, i saw a presenter actually shoehorn Corbyn into a discussion about the mass shootings in texas. Nice work, i thought. Job securely done there!

Joe_ Public

20silkcut wrote: »

A referendum on the type of Brexit with remain not an option might work.
Such a drastic action as a no deal brexit should be put to a public vote.
If the mandate is there for a no deal brexit it should be confirmed by a referendum.

If that mandate fails to materialize then all sorts of can kicking can ensue.

Bottom line for me is that a second referendum remains the most democratic option available to them, and we all know how they love to prattle on about "democracy" over there at the moment. It only works with a remain option, though, otherwise you are effectively disenfranchising probably more than half of the electorate. It's not straightforward, but there's no straightforward option available anyway. Absolutely agree that in no way should a no deal outcome just be let happen because they could come up with nothing else. That is simply ludicrous and represents only the start of their problems. The ball remains in their court. The sane people have to rescue the situation before the erg fanatics really start to wreak havoc.

20silkcut

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Bottom line for me is that a second referendum remains the most democratic option available to them, and we all know how they love to prattle on about "democracy" over there at the moment. It only works with a remain option, though, otherwise you are effectively disenfranchising probably more than half of the electorate. It's not straightforward, but there's no straightforward option available anyway. Absolutely agree that in no way should a no deal outcome just be let happen because they could come up with nothing else. That is simply ludicrous and represents only the start of their problems. The ball remains in their court. The sane people have to rescue the situation before the erg fanatics really start to wreak havoc.

I agree remain should be on the ballot paper. However I feel it is a beaten docket at this stage. It was defeated in 2016. Since then Remain has failed to capture any sort of public imagination over there.
Bar the march in London. No charismatic leaders have emerged to champion its cause. Remainers have not got their house in order and have allowed the nutters to steal all the limelight.
A soft brexit/ long transition is the only hope at this stage. Getting any kind of referendum would be a huge achievement at this stage. And brexit type is the only plausible one in my opinion.
Killing off no deal in a public vote is nearly as good as remaining at this stage. The EU could offer an unlimited extension.
Then they could have a sane debate about their future relationship with the EU without a ticking time bomb to disaster in the background.

briany

A referendum with a hard or soft exit choice would be the best compromise. The UK is politically paralysed until it can find some sort of workable consensus on this thing, and a soft, sensible exit would be that compromise, IMO. Neither side gets all of what they want, but they each get some of what they want.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

A referendum with a hard or soft exit choice would be the best compromise. The UK is politically paralysed until it can find some sort of workable consensus on this thing, and a soft, sensible exit would be that compromise, IMO. Neither side gets all of what they want, but they each get some of what they want.

I cannot see No Deal on a ballot paper. It would involve the UK taking a sledgehammer to all its agreements with the EU and being nearly in a hostile stand off with them....a quite bizarre thing to vote on in a referendum.

Kermit.de.frog

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

Hope somebody forwards that to the EU commission. Important to remind them what they are dealing with.

boggerman1

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

Was listening to Eamon dunphy's podcast earlier.he had that great oirish man Brendan O'Neill from spiked on .god he can't disguise his ill feelings towards Leo.Leo,the EU,remoaners the usual suspects to blame for the cock-up that brexit was /is

BobbyBobberson

boggerman1 wrote: »

Was listening to Eamon dunphy's podcast earlier.he had that great oirish man Brendan O'Neill from spiked on .god he can't disguise his ill feelings towards Leo.Leo,the EU,remoaners the usual suspects to blame for the cock-up that brexit was /is

Dunphy is a poor when it comes to leavers. He had Liam Halligan on before and just let him talk gibberish without challenging him. I never listen to his podcast after that actually.

Enzokk

Bit cynical wrote: »

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

But the ERG has already stated even if you take out the backstop they will not vote for it and Labour's position seems to be that any Tory deal is off the table so they will not vote for it. So we are in a position where the current deal will not be accepted in part because Labour is doing what an opposition does, it opposes, but also because the ERG has painted themselves into a corner completely and cannot get out of it.

I struggle to see how this ends if Johnson remains in charge. I am sure if there is a government of national unity then the outcome will change, but while the current actors remain at the top there will be a no-deal Brexit.

Lackadaisical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In reality, the ERG don't give a damn about NI. England first, second and third.

In reality the DUP are useful stooges for the ERG. They do not have the same objectives at all. The DUP's clinging to the notion of their British identity, which they see as under threat and the ERG simply sees them as annoying peasants with some weird accent who are temporarily useful to further their objectives of English nationalism and sink or swim economics.

Northern Ireland would be in a really precarious position if some of the absolute economic libertarians of the right wing of the Tories were to get into power in a serious way. You'd be looking at the end of subsidisation.

The only reason NI is important is down to a fluke of parliamentary arithmetic. Once that goes away, in the English nationalist brain, they're just that odd group of Irish people who insist they're British for some reason and march up and down in bowler hats. That's the reality of it.

It's unfortunate that the DUP are about to sell Northern Ireland out because they are too blind to recognise false flattery and a few magic beans.

I can't see the broader Northern Ireland community, other than a minority of very hardcore loyalists (and even they may not even be all that their livelihoods may be undermined through trading/regularly changes, declining spending power, politically inspired cuts and lack of interest) being too chuffed with the outcome of this.

A united Ireland may not be a viable solution either - that can only ever come about through positive engagement and absolutely clear consent from the NI population, but a maintaining the status quo compromise that gives Northern Ireland a special status, which to be realistic, is something that it has always had in a whole range of areas, is probably the only practical solution. If that doesn't happen, it's entirely the DUP's fault. Everything has come down to 'blood red lines' and hardcore identity politics and paranoia about 'Dublin'.

If the DUP had any real care for Northern Ireland they would collapse the UK government and let politics take its course and this Brexit disaster be ironed out properly. The lure of flattery and notions of power is quite obviously too much and the big vision leadership that's desperately needed in Northern Ireland to bring it together is nonexistent.

I don't see history being kind somehow.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Nothing like a bit of the old racism from the leave side.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1158760843779149824

They seem to be becoming increasingly obsessed with Varadkar. This is not surprising as a) he is pretty much the only one articulating the EU position in public at the moment and b) some of the other actors/targets like Juncker, Tusk...are leaving the stage.

This is part of the reason he is taking so much abuse from UK tory media and leave voters.

They're obsessed with Varadkar being a "puppet" of the EU. They create their own false narrative and then run with it.

briany

Strazdas wrote: »

I cannot see No Deal on a ballot paper. It would involve the UK taking a sledgehammer to all its agreements with the EU and being nearly in a hostile stand off with them....a quite bizarre thing to vote on in a referendum.

The bizarre cherry on the bizarre cake that has been the last 3 years of Brexit.
I think that No Deal would have to appear on the ballot because the best way to show that vocal minority shouting for it that their opinion is rejected by the British public is to let the British public do just that.

Lackadaisical

boggerman1 wrote: »

Was listening to Eamon dunphy's podcast earlier.he had that great oirish man Brendan O'Neill from spiked on .god he can't disguise his ill feelings towards Leo.Leo,the EU,remoaners the usual suspects to blame for the cock-up that brexit was /is

It's absolutely pathetic the way they are incapable of arguing facts, but instead just turn into school yard bullying tactics and calling people names. You see it quite regularly with the attacks on Nichola Sturgeon using terms that I won't even repeat here, but in reference to her stature or her accent and so on.

My view of it is report racist or xenophobic tweets. Twitter has fairly strong T&Cs and other than that ignore it and don't rise to it. It's utterly deplorable gutter politics but it's also a clear indication that they have no points to make.

serfboard

Strazdas wrote: »

They're obsessed with Varadkar being a "puppet" of the EU. They create their own false narrative and then run with it.

Yeah, sure do you remember a while back they ignorantly said that if Enda Kenny had remained as Taoiseach they'd have got a better deal from him, but since Leo is a closet Sinn Féiner ... :rolleyes:

BluePlanet

It does seem that the Brexit side revert to insults and threats more than the other sides.

They are getting more and more shrill as they are not getting the Deal they want.

briany

BluePlanet wrote: »

It does seem that the Brexit side revert to insults and threats more than the other sides.

They are getting more and more shrill as they are not getting the Deal they want.

I don't think either side is totally free of the name-calling guilt. There aren't really metrics, though, which is useful for the Brexit side to say, if pushed, that "Well, you're just as bad!".