Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

PropJoe10

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hope somebody forwards that to the EU commission. Important to remind them what they are dealing with.

Watch the Brexit: Behind Closed Doors programme/documentary and you'll see that they're quite aware of what they're dealing with. It's a good watch!

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hope somebody forwards that to the EU commission. Important to remind them what they are dealing with.

If there is one single thing that has been constant through this whole fell endeavour of the British establishment, it's that the EU, its organs and its members have known all along what to expect and have planned and acted accordingly.

Sam Russell

20silkcut wrote: »

A referendum on the type of Brexit with remain not an option might work.
Such a drastic action as a no deal brexit should be put to a public vote.
If the mandate is there for a no deal brexit it should be confirmed by a referendum.

One simple question, should the Uk leave the EU without a deal in place?
Yes/no
If that mandate fails to materialize then all sorts of can kicking can ensue.

Any referendum, whatever the question, runs the risk of a 52:48 result in favour of remain. It then looks undemocratic to those that cried 'will of the people' when the result was the other way.

The only way for this to end - forever - is for a National Government, led by the likes of Ken Clarke (old but Tory) or Caroline Lucas (young but Green). Neither are likely to continue as PM following a GE, so no threat to any party.

They cannot call a referendum because there is no time, and anyway, the result would not be accepted, no matter what the result.

So - they revoke art 50, giving the full reason that nobody voted for how they were to leave and no single preferred option has passed the HoC. Also, the Leave campaign broke the law, and told many egregious lies. The PM should announce a Royal Tribunal into the matter, and instruct the Met Police to redouble their enquiries into the criminal aspects of funding of the Leave campaign - particularly A Banks part in it, and the link to Russian money.

They then sandbag their action by passing legislation to make invocation of Art 50 only possible with a two thirds HoC majority (as in the FTPA). That would put future Brexit out of range for the foreseeable future.

If they get a National Gov, they should not waste it. They could also get rid of FPTP while they are at it.

Time is getting too close and so desperate measures and panic is needed.

Sam Russell

GBP now over 92p = €1 for most of the day, testing its worst value for a decade, and possibly ever.

Against the US$ it is GB£1 = US$1.21 today - a decade ago it was US$1.70.

Much more and there will be a run on it.

briany

Sam Russell wrote: »

Any referendum, whatever the question, runs the risk of a 52:48 result in favour of remain. It then looks undemocratic to those that cried 'will of the people' when the result was the other way.

The only way for this to end - forever - is for a National Government, led by the likes of Ken Clarke (old but Tory) or Caroline Lucas (young but Green). Neither are likely to continue as PM following a GE, so no threat to any party.

They cannot call a referendum because there is no time, and anyway, the result would not be accepted, no matter what the result.

So - they revoke art 50, giving the full reason that nobody voted for how they were to leave and no single preferred option has passed the HoC. Also, the Leave campaign broke the law, and told many egregious lies. The PM should announce a Royal Tribunal into the matter, and instruct the Met Police to redouble their enquiries into the criminal aspects of funding of the Leave campaign - particularly A Banks part in it, and the link to Russian money.

They then sandbag their action by passing legislation to make invocation of Art 50 only possible with a two thirds HoC majority (as in the FTPA). That would put future Brexit out of range for the foreseeable future.

If they get a National Gov, they should not waste it. They could also get rid of FPTP while they are at it.

Time is getting too close and so desperate measures and panic is needed.

I just can't help but see this course of action being painted as a veritable Establishment coup d'etat by every single populist right-wing media outlet and commentator. It would, at least, be a decisive political action in a sea of dithering and a demonstration that politicians can put their party alliances aside. I suppose that much would be heartening. On the other hand, I see a flat revocation of A50 as doing absolutely nothing to salve the public anger and discontent which led to Brexit, and festering it further, and if this anger is not addressed, then you get something even worse down the road. What I would expect at the least is that the Brexit Party would be in a coalition government at the next GE.

FrancieBrady

briany wrote: »

I just can't help but see this course of action being painted as a veritable Establishment coup d'etat by every single populist right-wing media outlet and commentator. It would, at least, be a decisive political action in a sea of dithering and a demonstration that politicians can put their party alliances aside. I suppose that much would be heartening. On the other hand, I see a flat revocation of A50 as doing absolutely nothing to salve the public anger and discontent which led to Brexit, and festering it further, and if this anger is not addressed, then you get something even worse down the road. What I would expect at the least is that the Brexit Party would be in a coalition government at the next GE.

Agree. It could spark off serious long term unrest. If that does happen for any reason over Brexit, like any conflict, it will be very hard to get back in a box.

joeysoap

Was listening to Miriam on the Sean O’Rourke this morning. Gregory Campbell was interviewed about no deal Brexit. Your going to lose 40,000 jobs chirps Miriam, your going to lose 80,000 replies Gregory. And so it went.

Next guest was a lecturer in some Belfast college, her first question to Miriam - why didn’t you ask him why the DUP are voting to lose 40,000 jobs. Miriam had no answer.

A Dub in Glasgo

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

KildareP

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

Must be a change of tact - I suppose Johnson refusing to negotiate with the EU unless the backstop is dropped doesn't allow him to shift blame onto the EU.

Sand

briany wrote: »

On the other hand, I see a flat revocation of A50 as doing absolutely nothing to salve the public anger and discontent which led to Brexit, and festering it further, and if this anger is not addressed, then you get something even worse down the road. What I would expect at the least is that the Brexit Party would be in a coalition government at the next GE.

The establishment view in the UK prior to Brexit was that they could continue on 'centrist' politics while ignoring about a third of the electorate - locking them out of power indefinitely. The only thing that broke the system was Cameron making a massive miscalculation and holding a referendum.

Were the centrists to regain power, you can be absolutely certain there will never be another referendum held. If anything, they'll work to make UK democratic system even less representative. Just carefully managed elections between two centrist parties offering essentially the same solutions to any given problem.

briany

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

If the Earth were to be invaded by a vastly superior and hostile race of aliens, intent on vaporising the entire human race within hours, I really think Labour would propose a General Election to deal with the problem. It is they who are the party of human molecular integrity. The Conservatives want to let the aliens vaporise the poor, and they want to cut the benefits for in-work single mothers!

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please do not just paste links here. A post has been deleted.

Sam Russell

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

I despair.

What I proposed would have Royal Commission that would have BJ Gove and Farage in jail, or at least terminally disgraced.

Enzokk

This is the link that was posted,

Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

I will highlight one quote from the article,

The moment that was admitted, the backstop could not possibly remain. The whole logic of it broke down. Now, suddenly, it was the Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar who was under pressure. Is the EU going to demand sacrifices from its member countries to push an illogical plan that only one of its tiniest countries wants? Actually, does Ireland want the backstop? Does it want to risk cutting off its second-largest export market? Estimates are that a no-deal Brexit would cost the Irish three points of GDP. In a poll for Dublin’s Sunday Independent, fewer than half of Irish people were ‘satisfied’ with Varadkar’s strategy on Brexit.

Varadkar warned that a no-deal Brexit would make Irish unification more likely. On the same principle you could just as easily argue it would lead to British unification. The common thread of everything Ireland has done in the past ten years has been to leave behind its paired obsessions of national unity and national culture. Clearly Ireland now wishes to be brought under the moral tutelage of more modern, more secular, more capitalistic powers. London is a more logical and convenient choice for that role than Brussels. This would require forgetting a lot of history, but of course forgetting history is what ‘European values’ are all about.

So according to this because of Johnson leading the way everything has changed on the continent. They realize that the backstop is a humiliation that cannot possibly to thrust upon a nation. May's deal was actually exactly what remainers wanted, even if they didn't know it according to Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times. Apparently that would have been a close relationship with the EU and a possibility of going back.

I think Ian Dunt put it best for this line of thinking,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1158756738482548736?s=20

The May deal was hard Brexit, no-deal is something totally different and worse than a hard Brexit.

PropJoe10

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

I've been saying it for a while, half the problem at the moment is that Labour are totally out of touch and stand for nothing. They need to get rid of Corbyn, get someone in that has an actual conviction about what they should be campaigning for and move forward and try and create an actual viable alternative to the Tories for voters.

Borderhopper

After several pages of trolling, I just want to say a big thanks to the mods for the job they do in keeping this thread on the straight and narrow. It’s a thankless task, and maybe they should get a bit more appreciation.

On another note, if your skill set is what I think it is, ancapaill, you would have no trouble finding highly paid work in Ireland, probably at a convenient location. Biotech and pharma are one of the jewels of the Irish economy, and anyone with significant lab based qualifications and experience would be highly sought after

Leroy42

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Labour, again, demonstrating how inept they are

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1158767410909986821

The cheek of Gove on the News saying the EU are blocking a deal

It was a terrible interview. Johnson has firmly nailed his colours to the mast whilst Labour will be discussing their possible position in the coming weeks.

She even said at one stage that Corbyn wanted to represent everyone rather than actually have a position.

3 years after the vote, 2 extensions in and No Deal in 90 days and Labour are going to have a discussion!

It is exactly this that is letting the Tory and ERG have complete control. I doubt it has ever happened that a government with such a small majority has been given such little resistance from the opposition.

Mancomb Seepgood

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I've been saying it for a while, half the problem at the moment is that Labour are totally out of touch and stand for nothing. They need to get rid of Corbyn, get someone in that has an actual conviction about what they should be campaigning for and move forward and try and create an actual viable alternative to the Tories for voters.

The Labour Party campaigned on a distinctive, traditionally social democratic platform in 2017 which in many ways offered a real alternative to the Tories.

The problem is that on the issue of Brexit they have been incompetent and/or indifferent to a looking disaster which will completely undermine their ability to meet their objectives in the economy,education,health,renationalisation of railways and the rest of it.Even if they win an election,they will inherit a ruined economy and will have played a part in making it that way.

PropJoe10

Mancomb Seepgood wrote: »

The Labour Party campaigned on a distinctive, traditionally social democratic platform in 2017 which in many ways offered a real alternative to the Tories.

The problem is that on the issue of Brexit they have been incompetent and/or indifferent to a looking disaster which will completely undermine their ability to meet their objectives in the economy,education,health,renationalisation of railways and the rest of it.Even if they win an election,they will inherit a ruined economy and will have played a part in making it that way.

Yep, which is why they did much better than expected in 2017, but since then the wheels have totally fallen off. They've fudged pretty much every major decision they've been faced with since then. Total lack of leadership on Brexit from Corbyn will cost them big-time.

WomanSkirtFan8

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the link that was posted,

Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

I will highlight one quote from the article,



So according to this because of Johnson leading the way everything has changed on the continent. They realize that the backstop is a humiliation that cannot possibly to thrust upon a nation. May's deal was actually exactly what remainers wanted, even if they didn't know it according to Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times. Apparently that would have been a close relationship with the EU and a possibility of going back.

I think Ian Dunt put it best for this line of thinking,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1158756738482548736?s=20

The May deal was hard Brexit, no-deal is something totally different and worse than a hard Brexit.

Forget that crap. That's a Pro-Brexit and Anti-EU publication and tbh would probably be of most use on a fire. :rolleyes:

BonnieSituation

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

^^^
I want to move to Berlin!!

I am a very exposed to this, I have a job interview next week for a pretty good job in Dublin but any savings I had hoped to use is getting decimated by the Sterling loss

Best of luck with it.

You'll have to change your username to "A Wegie in Dublin" though!

BonnieSituation

Bit cynical wrote: »

Possibly. I think Johnson would be better than May at getting such a deal through. The ERG would still be against it but as you say, with enough Labour MPs, it might get through.

On the other hand, he's also said that the WA is dead and putting a piece of territory into a special zone is still problematic for any country even without the complexities of the North.

I've still got a feeling it will be something else entirely if it is not going to be a hard brexit. I could be wrong but we'll see. Hard brexit still most likely outcome imo.

The UK is full of special zones and areas and has jurisdictional anomalies all over the shop. If anything an NI only backstop is right up their alley.

Enzokk

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

Forget that crap. That's a Pro-Brexit and Anti-EU publication and tbh would probably be of most use on a fire. :rolleyes:

I know, but it was linked on the thread and I wanted to highlight some of the points the piece raises about Brexit. It is good to hear the opposing side, we have been accused of being an echo chamber here so seeing what is an opinion on the other side is at the very least interesting.

I look at it this way, if the argument put forward has some merit and is not veiled behind clever language or dubious use of statistics then we are bound to listen to it. The argument in that piece was not in any of the categories that made me sit up and reevaluate if there is merit in the policy being followed by the UK right now. So I agree there isn't a lot of value in it and seeing as it is from the 3rd August and has not attracted attention it seems that most have ignored it or others has not seen it fit to share it around.

Capt'n Midnight

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So we go on WTO terms, the same way as the USA and China deal with the EU. It's not ideal but if it comes to tariffs then the UK Government will receive a lot more revenue than the EU and can use it to shield its businesses.

Most UK cars are exported and so will face 10% tariffs.
For generic volume cars the profit margin is about 4%.
You've just made previously profitable industries completely uneconomic.


So you'd need to subsidise an industry for perhaps seven years until there's a trade deal. And there's been very little investment in the industry over the last three years too so it's likely to end up a technological generation behind unless the govt is handing over billions year after year to catch up and keep up.


Even then if/when you eventually get a trade deal it might not apply.

Because it would only apply to cars with more than 50-55% local content.
UK cars are only about 41% local content. And that's not counting the % of parts the UK suppliers import and resell and under Rules Of Origin you can't ignore those imports.

And there's extra paperwork which will add further costs.



In a Hard Brexit the UK car industry is almost completely reliant on the EU allowing the UK to count parts made in the EU as "local content" for the purposes of a trade deal. 60% of exports are to the Common Market. Exports to China fell by half last year.

Meanwhile UK politicians are burning through any remaining goodwill, oblivious to the fact that closing UK car plants and transferring production means more jobs for the EU/Japan/Korea/Turkey.


Rinse and repeat for many other UK industries. Well not so many these days as there used to be.

Water John

Bailey is very poor, just says what ever Crobyn tells her to say, on any given day.
Lb will go for a National Govn't if it's limited to a specific, one job, asking for an Ext of Art 50 and calling a GE. That way Corbyn gets what he wants, but it's in the giving of some Tory MPs.

Johnson's plan is simply to do nothing. The exact same plan he has used all his life.

J Mysterio

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Agree. It could spark off serious long term unrest. If that does happen for any reason over Brexit, like any conflict, it will be very hard to get back in a box.

Pandoras box is already well and truly open. Everyone has an opinion and Brexit, and many have a very strong opinion indeed.

J Mysterio

Enzokk wrote: »

This is the link that was posted,

Europeans have started to change their minds on Brexit

I will highlight one quote from the article,

So according to this because of Johnson leading the way everything has changed on the continent. They realize that the backstop is a humiliation that cannot possibly to thrust upon a nation. May's deal was actually exactly what remainers wanted, even if they didn't know it according to Wolfgang Münchau of the Financial Times. Apparently that would have been a close relationship with the EU and a possibility of going back.

I think Ian Dunt put it best for this line of thinking,

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1158756738482548736?s=20

The May deal was hard Brexit, no-deal is something totally different and worse than a hard Brexit.

This is UK propoganda. The Spectator is a facourite of the Brexit types.

dresden8

Leo sat beside Mary Lou. That's huge.

Koloman

Paschal Donohoe on Newsnight BBC2 now.

briany

J Mysterio wrote: »

Pandoras box is already well and truly open. Everyone has an opinion and Brexit, and many have a very strong opinion indeed.

How might Pandora's Box be closed? It seems to me like revocation is the preferred aim of Remain supporters, but the thing that's not being addressed is how they would "de-Brexify" the country in the wake of that. I don't think there are any plans in place for that at all. I don't think anyone has a conception on how to do it. I think the 'plan' is to put the lid back on and sit on it, while something more terrible coalesces underneath, and then act with shock and horror when it bursts forth once again.