Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet

I don't think it's possible to put the lid on it.
They need to out in the cold for a good spell.

Loads of the Brexiteers will blame the EU for their resultant misery, but there are also sane voices among their countrymen that will remember it is they that brought this down upon themselves.

strawdog

Koloman wrote: »

Paschal Donohoe on Newsnight BBC2 now.

Didn't think he was great, held the line but not as sure footed as Coveney, gave some of her sillier questions too much shrift

J Mysterio

briany wrote: »

How might Pandora's Box be closed? It seems to me like revocation is the preferred aim of Remain supporters, but the thing that's not being addressed is how they would "de-Brexify" the country in the wake of that. I don't think there are any plans in place for that at all. I don't think anyone has a conception on how to do it. I think the 'plan' is to put the lid back on and sit on it, while something more terrible coalesces underneath, and then act with shock and horror when it bursts forth once again.

I think the only way the wind can be taken out of the sails of these maniacs/ fanatics (and their deluded followers) is for them to have their hard Brexit. Once they stand in the ruins, they will know they were wrong.

Should they feel 'cheated' out of it, we'll never hear the end of this sh1te.

This doesnt mean those of right mind should bow down to Brexiteers or give over to them, but im not sure there is actually enough determined, concerted resistance to avoid what is seeming like the inevitable now. People are just worn down and fed up of it. Anything to make it 'end' (of course we all know this will be ongoing).

A referendum at this stage is a non runner I think, not before a GE anyway. A GE might be the only alternative to a crashout Brexit.

It is literally unbelievable how the UK government are behaving right now, they are every bit as bad as Trump, and in some ways worse. Trump is a bit 'off', but people like Gove are clever. Sneaky and deceitful, but clever.

The UK have gone full in on Cummings method now - manipulating people with populist 'us against them', nationalist rhetoric. It was very disturbing to see when Johnson, Raab, Javid and Gove all kept repeating the new mantra: 'the undemocratic backstop'. They will keep repeating it untill it is the first thing anyone (particularly Brexiteers) think when they hear the word 'backstop' (undemocratic). It's Goebbels stuff.

Gove also trying to frame the UK bluff as the EU refusing to negotiate is utterly contemptible, but that seems to be official UK policy now - play the biggest game of chicken there ever was - look how big our massive British balls are. Well, they are risking the livelihoods and welfare of millions of UK and EU citizens, and for what? Nonsense. Very few adults in the room and no saving them from themselves. The longer this goes on and the worse the rhetoric gets, the less you actually want to save them from themselves /rant

Irish Praetorian

briany wrote: »

How might Pandora's Box be closed? It seems to me like revocation is the preferred aim of Remain supporters, but the thing that's not being addressed is how they would "de-Brexify" the country in the wake of that. I don't think there are any plans in place for that at all. I don't think anyone has a conception on how to do it. I think the 'plan' is to put the lid back on and sit on it, while something more terrible coalesces underneath, and then act with shock and horror when it bursts forth once again.

Yeah I don't see this particular issue going 'back in its box' unless a duality of issues can be dealt with. Firstly the question of immigration which seems to serve as perhaps the entire animus behind this Brexit debate regardless of what the practical implications will be. Secondly there is the problem of the widening gap between rich and poor which appears to be a problem that has been lingering since the 1970s.

Now the irony seems to be that the voters are left with a choice between a Tory party that might make some minor reductions in migration (bear in mind this is still the party of big business and cheap labour) but couldn't really care about inequality, and a Labour party who might do more to reduce the inequality but would continue migration at a rate which would continually countermand those efforts.

So faced with the problem of not being able to put either one of those issues to bed (if even they could in theory be 'put to bed') the net result is a lot of increasing anger building up and resulting in periodic flare-ups and lashing out. I don't think it's a surprise that the far-right and far-left had more to say about leaving the EU than the parties of the centre and I don't think either Brexit or Remain will resolve much about these issues in the medium term.

Leroy42

Should the UK come looking fircan extension, highly unlikely, Macron will be in a very strong position to turn it down on the basis of 'I told you so'.

Also, seems everyone has forgotten that certain Tory MPs were delighted to tell us last year that countries like Poland were eager to stand with the UK.

BobbyBobberson

J Mysterio wrote: »

Gove also trying to frame the UK bluff as the EU refusing to negotiate is utterly contemptible, but that seems to be official UK policy now - play the biggest game of chicken there ever was - look how big our massive British balls are. Well, they are risking the livelihoods and welfare of millions of UK and EU citizens, and for what? Nonsense. Very few adults in the room and no saving them from themselves. The longer this goes on and the worse the rhetoric gets, the less you actually want to save them from themselves/rant

Completely agree on this part. And before anyone jumps in, I know how much a hard brexit will damage Ireland. But I find myself wishing the hardest of Brexit on some of them at times.

FrancieBrady

strawdog wrote: »

Didn't think he was great, held the line but not as sure footed as Coveney, gave some of her sillier questions too much shrift

Pascal should be kept at home tbh. Not near strong enough and came across as hesitant and sweaty. She asked him to look her in the eye and he looked everywhere but. Out of his depth.

briany

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

Yeah I don't see this particular issue going 'back in its box' unless a duality of issues can be dealt with. Firstly the question of immigration which seems to serve as perhaps the entire animus behind this Brexit debate regardless of what the practical implications will be. Secondly there is the problem of the widening gap between rich and poor which appears to be a problem that has been lingering since the 1970s.

Now the irony seems to be that the voters are left with a choice between a Tory party that might make some minor reductions in migration (bear in mind this is still the party of big business and cheap labour) but couldn't really care about inequality, and a Labour party who might do more to reduce the inequality but would continue migration at a rate which would continually countermand those efforts.

So faced with the problem of not being able to put either one of those issues to bed (if even they could in theory be 'put to bed') the net result is a lot of increasing anger building up and resulting in periodic flare-ups and lashing out. I don't think it's a surprise that the far-right and far-left had more to say about leaving the EU than the parties of the centre and I don't think either Brexit or Remain will resolve much about these issues in the medium term.

I'd be interested to know how concerns on immigration break down. For example, a concern over Romanians coming to pick strawberries for a wage that undercuts the locals could be a concern that would be addressed somewhat by leaving the EU. If the concern is more a clash of cultures, then it would mean that they don't really want any more immigrants from places like Bangladesh or Nigeria, regardless of what skills they bring, and this latter concern won't really be solved by Brexit. The UK would always need immigrants unless it became totally self sufficient in the skills that are in demand.

BobbyBobberson

briany wrote: »

I'd be interested to know how concerns on immigration break down. For example, a concern over Romanians coming to pick strawberries for a wage that undercuts the locals could be a concern that would be addressed somewhat by leaving the EU. If the concern is more a clash of cultures, then it would mean that they don't really want any more immigrants from places like Bangladesh or Nigeria, regardless of what skills they bring, and this latter concern won't really be solved by Brexit. The UK would always need immigrants unless it became totally self sufficient in the skills that are in demand.

Yeah the immigration issue is definitely more complex. One lad I know voted leave because of too many Somalians. Another complained about too many bangladeshi, others complained about Burqas in the street and tied that to their decision to vote leave.

Farage chose his breaking point image for a reason.

martingriff

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Completely agree on this part. And before anyone jumps in, I know how much a hard brexit will damage Ireland. But I find myself wishing the hardest of Brexit on some of them at times.

The only good thing I see from a hard Brexit. Unfortunately it will be bad for Ireland for a while and I hope there is some help from the EU but I think we have been too reliant on the UK for our imports/exports with so much going that it will be good to spread it around and who knows might be the best in the medium to long term

Water John

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

InTheShadows

Water John wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

Fair point tbh

amacca

His counter part debating him on the question of scottish indy ref did well and she seems sane and reasonable in comparison.....

O'Neill didn't come off well unless of course you wanted to hear his message and don't want to hear an adult viewpoint

boggerman1

Water John wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

It's all they have left.its everyone else fault.nobody is stopping them walking away with no deal right now.UK please f::: Off now

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Brendan O'Neill on Sky calling the EU, an oligarchy!!!

The guy is a lunatic. Anyone listening to him would think the Soviet Union circa 1957 has been reinvented. He genuinely believes they are bullies, tyrants, dictators etc.

briany

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Yeah the immigration issue is definitely more complex. One lad I know voted leave because of too many Somalians. Another complained about too many bangladeshi, others complained about Burqas in the street and tied that to their decision to vote leave.

If there were too many burqas in the street, pre-Brexit, there will still be too many in the street, post-Brexit. It would be 'interesting' to see where the xenophobic part of Brexit goes when the number of brown faces and veiled faces doesn't really diminish after Oct. 31st.

A Dub in Glasgo

InTheShadows wrote: »

Fair point tbh

What? 27 countries governing in the EU are an oliarchy? What does that make the UK with Cummings / Johnson / Gove tripartite?

Irish Praetorian

briany wrote: »

I'd be interested to know how concerns on immigration break down. For example, a concern over Romanians coming to pick strawberries for a wage that undercuts the locals could be a concern that would be addressed somewhat by leaving the EU. If the concern is more a clash of cultures, then it would mean that they don't really want any more immigrants from places like Bangladesh or Nigeria, regardless of what skills they bring, and this latter concern won't really be solved by Brexit. The UK would always need immigrants unless it became totally self sufficient in the skills that are in demand.

That is very much the rub, and I suspect a lot of people who spoke about how Brexit was going to do a lot to reduce immigration were lying through their teeth to people who believed them. Instead, as we've seen from even tentative trade talks, this new 'global' Britain is going to be a lot more open than EU membership entailed.

Strazdas

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What? 27 countries governing in the EU are an oliarchy? What does that make the UK with Cummings / Johnson / Gove tripartite?

This is nuts...is he talking about the European Commission or the EU Council? Given that the Council has 28 members, it's impossible to see how it could be an oligarchy.....that's far bigger than the UK cabinet

BobbyBobberson

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Watch the Brexit: Behind Closed Doors programme/documentary and you'll see that they're quite aware of what they're dealing with. It's a good watch!

It is a brilliant watched, I loved it.

briany

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

That is very much the rub, and I suspect a lot of people who spoke about how Brexit was going to do a lot to reduce immigration were lying through their teeth to people who believed them. Instead, as we've seen from even tentative trade talks, this new 'global' Britain is going to be a lot more open than EU membership entailed.

That's would be extremely disappointing for the people who not only want immigration to stop, but also severely reduce the number of immigrants already present.

Irish Praetorian

briany wrote: »

That's would be extremely disappointing for the people who not only want immigration to stop, but also severely reduce the number of immigrants already present.

I would be a little more worried about the effects at a more fundamental level. Think of it - you've spent decades being on the political margins and now are apparently the centre of attention; Brexit is 'the will of the people' and is apparently all things to all people. Somehow, it's going to manage to reconcile the white working class with more traditional views and the migrant communities looking for easier family reunification; to lower house prices whilst ensuring pensioners still have a stable nest egg to retire on; to bring back industries lost to the vagaries of the new global economy whilst at the same time breaking the 'protectionist shackles' of the EU.

But of course it can't - and so whether Brexit goes through or Remain reasserts itself, eventually you're going to have a significant body of disaffected and disappointed people for whom the political system offers no resource. Where they might turn next is what frightens me and whether a new period is coming, new 'Years of Lead' or even just revived struggle in 'frozen conflicts' like Northern Ireland, all of these things should concern us.

J Mysterio

It should be pointed out that frustration is ultimately directed at the UK political elite i.e. those who are driving this disaster (I could retain some empathy with the average person). It is the privileged Eton/ Oxbridge/ whatever gang who have constructed and conducted this circus, and it is they who have let down and lied to the population for so many years now, and with no accountability.

NHS lies on a bus - no accountability
Immigration lies on billboards - no accountability
Illegal funding - no accountability
Electioneering malpractice - no accountability
Foreign interference - no accountability
Windrush etc.

These guys themselves tolerate, and are up to, all sorts. They are fancy free. A number of the cabinet have made huge blunders and embarassed themselves massively over the last few years, yet they just plough on nonetheless. Not so long ago, people would quietly resign from public life for these things. Many of the top Tories have no shame whatsoever - consider David Davis.

People need to be held accountable for their failures/ mistakes, and the UK needs to ensure proper order in government and its institutions. They are pointing the finger at others, but assumed high standards in the UK have been seemingly lost, or are slipping, and the integrity of their system is under question regardless of Brexit.

Labour are of course deserving of their share of ire too in that they have let the Tories away with all of this and have not held the government to account. So much so that good MPs actually left them for that reason. Labour have failed to ensure proper order and have failed to engage with the public in a meaningful way. I presume this is largely due to Corbyn's vapid and dithering leadership.

reslfj

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Most UK cars are exported and so will face 10% tariffs.
For generic volume cars the profit margin is about 4%.
You've just made previously profitable industries completely uneconomic.

So you'd need to subsidise an industry for perhaps seven years

The UK can't subsidise car production to overcome tariffs and expect to get away with it.
The car companies will side with the WTO and EU27 and not the UK or their own UK assembly lines.

Besides subsidising would also be extremely costly to the UK and feed the subsidies directly into the EU's budget. This is a non option, I should think.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

....
UK cars are only about 41% local content. [/URL] And that's not counting the % of parts the UK suppliers import and resell and under Rules Of Origin you can't ignore those imports.

The UK auto industry was earlier this year saying that some standard cars had down to a mere 25% UK value added - huge gab up to the 55% needed.

But total production reduction/stop may not happen on Brexit day nor e.g on day+30. These large companies will accept a loss for a shorter period until production has been moved.

Honda will in 2021 close in Swindon, but they may not reduce production earlier if the pound is low enough, the new FTA with Japan hasn't reached the lower tariff for cars yet or they may produce simply because they are in need of fossil powered cars (the old model range).

Don't expect big companies to act in panic - they have the money to do things in a controlled way.

Lars

J Mysterio

One of the most significant problems is a majority of the aforementioned political elite are and have been cynically manipulating their countrymen with what they know to be false for their own ends, for some time.

Some of these are surely idelogues, but others who have spurred things on must have a vested interest in Brexit - disaster capitalists/ followers of the Shock Doctrine. The problem is that this transference soon becomes a cancer and there are now a lot of people in the UK with extreme (and illogical) views.

The unholy bonds twixt UK politics and their suspect tabloid media have assuredly allowed a succession of lies over many years to soak into the national consciousness/ lexicon and this has been exacerbated and accelerated by irresponsible politicians. This can/ did/ is becoming a thing which they no longer control - they have wrecked the UK.

They will need to be held accountable. If not now, then in the Brexit Shambles Mad Max Wasteland post mortem report.

reslfj

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

What? 27 countries governing in the EU are an oliarchy? What does that make the UK with Cummings / Johnson / Gove tripartite?

Or with the Barclay brothers, Rupert Murdoch and Richard Desmond ?


Lars

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

One of the most significant problems is a majority of the aforementioned political elite are and have been cynically manipulating their countrymen with what they know to be false for their own ends, for some time.

Some of these are surely idelogues, but others who have spurred things on must have a vested interest in Brexit - disaster capitalists/ followers of the Shock Doctrine. The problem is that this transference soon becomes a cancer and there are now a lot of people in the UK with extreme (and illogical) views.

The unholy bonds twixt UK politics and their suspect tabloid media have assuredly allowed a succession of lies over many years to soak into the national consciousness/ lexicon and this has been exacerbated and accelerated by irresponsible politicians. This can/ did/ is becoming a thing which they no longer control - they have wrecked the UK.

They will need to be held accountable. If not now, then in the Brexit Shambles Mad Max Wasteland post mortem report.

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing papers. This disaster has been coming down the tracks for a long time, probably for decades. The public have been brainwashed by their media into believing all sorts of falsehoods. Maybe there was a touch of inevitability about the whole thing blowing up now.

BluePlanet

Varadkar and Johnson ‘planning to meet’, says Minister
Paschal Donohoe confirms Taoiseach’s and PM’s offices in contact during BBC interview
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/varadkar-and-johnson-planning-to-meet-says-minister-1.3978991

Watch now as Guido Fawkes, SNIP. Use the correct names please. and other pro Brexit media run with this as the Irish are blinking.

Mr.Wemmick

J Mysterio wrote: »

One of the most significant problems is a majority of the aforementioned political elite are and have been cynically manipulating their countrymen with what they know to be false for their own ends, for some time.

Some of these are surely idelogues, but others who have spurred things on must have a vested interest in Brexit - disaster capitalists/ followers of the Shock Doctrine. The problem is that this transference soon becomes a cancer and there are now a lot of people in the UK with extreme (and illogical) views.

The unholy bonds twixt UK politics and their suspect tabloid media have assuredly allowed a succession of lies over many years to soak into the national consciousness/ lexicon and this has been exacerbated and accelerated by irresponsible politicians. This can/ did/ is becoming a thing which they no longer control - they have wrecked the UK.

They will need to be held accountable. If not now, then in the Brexit Shambles Mad Max Wasteland post mortem report.

Strazdas wrote: »

80% of newspaper sales in the UK are of right wing papers. This disaster has been coming down the tracks for a long time, probably for decades. The public have been brainwashed by their media into believing all sorts of falsehoods. Maybe there was a touch of inevitability about the whole thing blowing up now.

You both nailed it. This exactly.

Interesting the way we've all fallen for the idea that the country will be spilt with public outrage if brexit is not delivered, etc. But when have the political class ever given a toss about the public. The country's beloved NHS has been torn to shreds and the public just sit and take it, like sheep. Why? Because the papers tell them to. The right wing press and political class use the excuse of public outrage only to give themselves the elbow room to deal with the immediate damage inflicted on the party by the ERG and Farage. If they had a clear road, and no serious underlying threat within the tories, brexit would've been kicked so far down the road, it would've been forgotten about within a couple of years. With a grumble and a moan, it would be been seen off.

This is a tory sh!t show through and through. And the real crime for the public is that they do not have real political choices. The balance is simply not there.

Inevitability, indeed.

L1011

Reach - the former Trinity Mirror - retaining the Express line to protect sales is the most sickening part of it all really