Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet

brickster69 wrote: »

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

Wow are you not reading?
Google this: Text of Agreement to Extend Brexit.

Strazdas

brickster69 wrote: »

So they have ended negotiations. Have they are mandate to do that ?

The reason the negotiations ended was the EU saying "This is as far as we are prepared to budge on the rules of the Single Market. Anything beyond this is too much for us to concede".

The UK negotiators would have been fully aware of this at the time and still are. But it's the British political class who weren't even involved in the talks who are now kicking off and demanding yet more concessions (Johnson, Gove, Cummings etc)

brickster69

BluePlanet wrote: »

Wow are you not reading?
Google this: Text of Agreement to Extend Brexit.

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think the crash will be as sharp a day one shock as some people expect. Lets take a timeline of No-Deal happening at the end of October, withe an election taking place two weeks later. The election campaign itself would be talking place in the first weeks of no-deal, before the worst effects are felt. For Brexiteers this will probably be a time of joy. They got what they wanted and it will be months before the full consequences of the severe economic impact is felt with job losses etc. Food/medicine shortages wont really have begun to bite becasue of the prep already done to stockpile the essentials. The EU has already said that it will take unilateral steps to soften the blow on the EU side in the first instance. These measures wont last for too long in most cases but in the first few weeks would soften the initial blow.

Did you see this slide that Sam Coates obtained?

Imreoir2 wrote: »

As for the EU, I am not going to pretend to know the legalities, but I don't think it would be impossible to give a transititon period to the UK, which is legally no longer a member, a month after Brexit happens given that this is exactly what they were planning to do on the eve of Brexit under the WA.

Well it's in Article 50: "All treaties cease to apply". Can't get around that really without an agreement reached under that same Article 50. Which is confined to EU member states that have said they are leaving.

BluePlanet

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

It's clear.
Negotiations are over, Withdrawal Agreement is the only game in town.
Political Declarations on future relationship can be fleshed out more.

What part are you having trouble with?

Call me Al

First Up wrote: »

Perhaps but the point is that Brexit has no affect on immigration from the UK's former colonies.

I tend to disagree. They will still need immigration to fill jobs in an expanding economy. Where will these come from if not the EU?
I think an unpalatable fact (for many over there) is that this will mean more immigration from former comparatively poor colonies to fill this space.

lawred2

Call me Al wrote: »

I tend to disagree. They will still need immigration to fill jobs in an expanding economy. Where will these come from if not the EU?
I think an unpalatable fact (for many over there) is that this will mean more immigration from former comparatively poor colonies to fill this space.

Extra visas will without doubt be a precondition of any trade talks that the UK would engage in with any prospective partners..

First Up

Call me Al wrote:

I tend to disagree. They will still need immigration to fill jobs in an expanding economy. Where will these come from if not the EU? I think an unpalatable fact (for many over there) is that this will mean more immigration from former comparatively poor colonies to fill this space.

Of course they will and immigration from former colonies in Asia, Africa and the West Indies is likely to increase.

But I think you misunderstand my point; there are those who voted for Brexit under the mistaken inpression that the EU is somehow to blame for immigration in general and their geographic ignorance added to their confusion.

sparkling sea

Time is of the essence and Boris may not have everything his own way yet. If a majority of MPs of what ever persuasion, won a vote of no confidence and agreed a No deal Brexit situation was an unprecedented national emergency, they maybe able pass an act of parliament revoking article 50, but this is likely to happen only with the help of The Speaker.

Conservative MPs may consider this the best option, as they won't be specifically 'blamed' and they will have 14 days to form a new government. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act , an election will be held if a vote of no confidence in the Government is passed and 14 days elapses without a further motion being passed expressing confidence in the Government. If a governing arrangement of any sort cannot win the confidence of the house, parliment is automatically dissolved 17 days before the date of an election, but Boris still advises the Queen on the date of the election. This is why only a government of unity, who can command confidence from the majority of MPS, can take the bull by the horns and stop a No Deal Brexit.

The other option, as Fintan O Toole has suggested, Sinn Fein could put the country before party by stepping down and allowing 7 remainers to topple Boris. Sinn Fein could hold an EGM of members and request a temporary change to its absentionist mandate but only in relation to the Brexit issue.

brickster69

sparkling sea wrote: »

Time is of the essence and Boris may not have everything his own way yet. If a majority of MPs of what ever persuasion, won a vote of no confidence and agreed a No deal Brexit situation was an unprecedented national emergency, they maybe able pass an act of parliament revoking article 50, but this is likely to happen only with the help of The Speaker.

Conservative MPs may consider this the best option, as they won't be specifically 'blamed' and they will have 14 days to form a new government. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act , an election will be held if a vote of no confidence in the Government is passed and 14 days elapses without a further motion being passed expressing confidence in the Government. If a governing arrangement of any sort cannot win the confidence of the house, parliment is automatically dissolved 17 days before the date of an election, but Boris still advises the Queen on the date of the election. This is why only a government of unity, who can command confidence from the majority of MPS, can take the bull by the horns and stop a No Deal Brexit.

The other option, as Fintan O Toole has suggested, Sinn Fein could put the country before party by stepping down and allowing 7 remainers to topple Boris. Sinn Fein could hold an EGM of members and request a temporary change to its absentionist mandate but only in relation to the Brexit issue.

Have you considered how many Labour Mp's will be watching all of this going and vote for the Government. I reckon Labour has more or less destroyed itself.

trellheim

prawnsambo wrote: »

A) If you're forced into an extension due to an election brought about by the HoC, you can campaign on the basis that a majority will give you a free hand to sideline the remainers (who having forced the election will also have forced the extension) and promise to deliver brexit when you've got that majority.

I don't think Johnson wants no deal. The WA with a NI only backstop would suit him fine.

But why bother ? no deal from the tory ERG point of view is simple and delivers Brexit on time as delivered. Like I said if you assume nothing but Tory self-interest - and that's been a recurring theme all along - Hard Brexit is the obvious choice

BonnieSituation

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

Please stop. This is infuriating.

BonnieSituation

sparkling sea wrote: »

The other option, as Fintan O Toole has suggested, Sinn Fein could put the country before party by stepping down and allowing 7 remainers to topple Boris. Sinn Fein could hold an EGM of members and request a temporary change to its absentionist mandate but only in relation to the Brexit issue.

The other option?

This is not an option. It's pure madness from O'Toole. It's barely credible. And the sort of thing that if you had read it on here you'd dismiss it out of hand. Nonsense.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

Have you considered how many Labour Mp's will be watching all of this going and vote for the Government. I reckon Labour has more or less destroyed itself.

Labour MPs who will vote against their whip to keep a very right wing Tory party in power so that the Tories can destroy the economy by doing exactly what the vast majority of Labour party members do not want? I'd be interested in names and numbers.

FrancieBrady

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The other option?

This is not an option. It's pure madness from O'Toole. It's barely credible. And the sort of thing that if you had read it on here you'd dismiss it out of hand. Nonsense.

O'Toole is running out of things to say about Brexit. I think he may have thought this would get some of viral traction. But he didn't model what would happen if his Baldrickian cunning plan looked like working. There would be even more mayhem in the UK parliament.

trellheim

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

That is true. All freely entered and signed up to by the Her Majesty's Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in the current parliament, only a few weeks back, if you needed a memory jog

First Up

FrancieBrady wrote:

O'Toole is running out of things to say about Brexit. I think he may have thought this would get some of viral traction. But he didn't model what would happen if his Baldrickian cunning plan looked like working. There would be even more mayhem in the UK parliament.

I wouldn't waste energy on trying to figure out what is going to happen in the UK. Nobody in the EU is.

The UK has created an almighty mess and everyone can see they are in serious trouble. But its a mess of their own making and for them to clean up.

Ireland and the rest of the EU is putting its energy into building the future without them. The UK is a sideshow.

brickster69

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour MPs who will vote against their whip to keep a very right wing Tory party in power so that the Tories can destroy the economy by doing exactly what the vast majority of Labour party members do not want? I'd be interested in names and numbers.

I would love to have a bet that more Labour MP's would vote against Labour than Conservatives would in a VONC if Labour commited to stopping Brexit. They know fine well they would have a better chance of being elected again even as an independent.

ambro25

brickster69 wrote: »

Lot's of conditions attached to that eh ?

eeeh none, actually: 7 months were granted to the UK in good faith, for sorting themselves out and getting the WA signed, rather than end up out on their a55 without any degree of preparations overnight.

It was a massive favour the EU did the UK. And the UK still got around 3 months' worth of it running now.

Now, for a next extension starting on Halloween, yes: now you're talking. Expect a boatload of strings attached.

Nobody will be forcing the UK's hand, mind. No more so than the last time. And the UK may well not get it anyway, even if it accepts all the conditions.

BluePlanet

ambro25 wrote: »

eeeh none, actually: 7 months were granted to the UK in good faith, for sorting themselves out and getting the WA signed, rather than end up out on their a55 without any degree of preparations overnight.

It was a massive favour the EU did the UK. And the UK still got around 3 months' worth of it running now.

Now, for a next extension starting on Halloween, yes: now you're talking. Expect a boatload of strings attached.

Nobody will be forcing the UK's hand, mind. No more so than the last time. And the UK may well not get it anyway, even if it accepts all the conditions.

The media are really not doing a good job here.
The Tory's are basically pissing all over the 'Agreement to Extend Brexit ' by wasting everybody's time trying to re-open it.
Nobody is calling them out on this, why?

They have certainly scuppered any goodwill the EU would have for them.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

I would love to have a bet that more Labour MP's would vote against Labour than Conservatives would in a VONC if Labour commited to stopping Brexit. They know fine well they would have a better chance of being elected again even as an independent.

Which Labour MPs will vote against their party and its members' wishes and vote for a very right wing Tory government and for a No Deal Brexit - thus keeping that very right wing Tory party in government?

Popeleo

brickster69 wrote: »

You have been played mate, in lots of ways. Eu know how but no one on here.

Such a high standard of post. Do keep it up, dear boy!

ambro25

brickster69 wrote: »

You have been played mate, in lots of ways. Eu know how but no one on here.

Can I have that in plain English, or are we already on the other side of peak handwavery here?

ancapailldorcha

Brickster69 will be taking a short break from this forum.

Strazdas

BluePlanet wrote: »

The media are really not doing a good job here.
The Tory's are basically pissing all over the 'Agreement to Extend Brexit ' by wasting everybody's time trying to re-open it.
Nobody is calling them out on this, why?

They have certainly scuppered any goodwill the EU would have for them.

Even if the EU reopened negotiations, the British side would start kicking off again. Within a few days of a new deal being signed, you'd have hard Brexiteers coming out with "None of this is legally binding" or "We can revoke this at any moment of our choosing" and the right wing press accusing the new deal of being as bad as the old one.

If they're seriously considering No Deal as a strong option, they cannot be trusted with anything.

BluePlanet

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Brickster69 will be taking a short break from this forum.

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

LuckyLloyd

There are no pro Brexit posters here consistently because they can’t hang when the conversation is detail oriented and based on citations / references. Emotion doesn’t cut it, as Britain will soon find out.

L1011

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which Labour MPs will vote against their party and its members' wishes and vote for a very right wing Tory government and for a No Deal Brexit - thus keeping that very right wing Tory party in government?

Kate Hoey!

Labour in name only at this stage, of course.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Did you see this slide that Sam Coates obtained?


Well it's in Article 50: "All treaties cease to apply". Can't get around that really without an agreement reached under that same Article 50. Which is confined to EU member states that have said they are leaving.

Yes, I have seen that slide. But tell me, how much of the stuff in the first fortnight will effect the lives of the average brexiteer? I seriously doubt the beginnings of dificulty in the UK economey will interupt their party in the first two weeks of Brexit. Do you really think your average conservative party voter / brexiteer will have gone on the journey from supporting no-deal to a backlash against Boris within two weeks? I don't. I think they will back Borris in a landslide for delivering a true Brexit. A year later and the same people might want his head on a pike if no-deal continues, but after two weeks, he will still be a hero.

As for what the EU can do, again I won't pretend to be an expert. While the treaties shall cease to apply once Brexit occures, I am not certain that it is impossible, if the UK gives the EU everything it wants re the backstop etc, that an agreemeent can't be reached which would see the treaties reapplied for a given duration while the future relationship is worked out.

Silent Running

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

I think that this is typical of Brexit supporters. They seem to find it hard to find valid pro-Brexit arguments and resort to taunts and trolling. Terms like "i love democracy" aren't intended to do anything other than to frustrate other posters.