Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

Even if the EU reopened negotiations, the British side would start kicking off again. Within a few days of a new deal being signed, you'd have hard Brexiteers coming out with "None of this is legally binding" or "We can revoke this at any moment of our choosing" and the right wing press accusing the new deal of being as bad as the old one.

If they're seriously considering No Deal as a strong option, they cannot be trusted with anything.

This will take generations to resolve. Quite a few British politicians have behaved in a shameful way and have whipped up a false division for largely selfish reasons. Traitorous in many ways.

Professor Moriarty

L1011 wrote: »

Kate Hoey!

Labour in name only at this stage, of course.

And she's retiring. Wouldn't be re-elected anyway as her constituency is strongly Remain. Walking before she is pushed.

trellheim

As a reminder of sectoral impact of Brexit , here's Aviation , specifically EASA/CAA - i.e. regulation. The authors are unable to write "this is a bad fking idea" for no-deal but you have to admire the wordsmithing

https://www.aerosociety.com/media/6797/raes_civil_aviation_regulation_-_what_future_after_brexit.pdf

Today, the UK is inextricably linked with EU Member
States [and some non-Member States] on aerospace
and aviation regulation. If continued UK membership
of EASA cannot be agreed, those negotiating Brexit
on both sides need to fully understand the implications
and likely impact. The process of reconstituting the UK
CAA so that it has the competence to carry out, and be
seen to carry out, those aspects of a National Aviation
Agency’s [NAA] role currently delegated to EASA will
be a mammoth challenge.

(nothings been done)

nc6000

Lux23 wrote: »

Complete silence and then he said thanks for your time. I googled his name and it came up as 'Sales Representative for the UK and Ireland' how on earth does someone dealing with Irish customers everyday not know that most of the island is Independent.

It has to be a result of Ireland or the difference between the north and the rest not being covered by history in school over there.

I've had UK colleagues due to visit Dublin ask me if there was a time difference. I've also had people over from London who were shocked that they couldn't pay for their lunch in the canteen using Sterling.

Strazdas

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

I don't mind them myself and don't mind getting into a debate with them, but they can be rather combative (I suppose it's because they are having to defend a position that is coming in for a huge amount of criticism).

The Brexit debate in Britain is fascinating for this reason. There is a bit of a siege like / bunker thing going on.....they know Brexit is hated but won't back down on the ideology for a moment.

Water John

Should have just said the Euro is tied to Sterling at parity.

fash

Strazdas wrote: »

I don't mind them myself and don't mind getting into a debate with them, but they can be rather combative (I suppose it's because they are having to defend a position that is coming in for a huge amount of criticism).

The Brexit debate in Britain is fascinating for this reason. There is a bit of a siege like / bunker thing going on.....they know Brexit is hated but won't back down on the ideology for a moment.

That's genuinely very magnanimous - what is annoying is the dishonesty, the delusion as well as the ongoing (and fairly successful) attempts at destroying the structures of civil society.

Nody

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

We've gone through quite a few over the years; the one common connector to date has been that none of them have ever been able to make a coherent argument for Brexit. It's been:

• "EU are bullies" (because they refuse to give UK everything they want)
• "EU is a dictatorship you can't leave" (but never able to answer why they did not leave directly after handing in A50)
• "EU integration is a threat to our sovereignty" (but never able to show how and how it differs from other trade groups etc.)
• "EU allows unlimited immigration that needs to stop" (never able to explain why UK did not do this earlier)
• "EU rules hinder trade" (never able to actually quote a law)
• "EU took away our fishing rights" (never able to explain why they were sold)
• "UK will prosper outside of EU" (never explain were they are suppose to sell their goods or why they would get a better trade deal)
• "UK will be Singapore on the Thames" (ignoring that they are not part of EU and hence their relevance compared to Amsterdam is very small)
• Etc.

In short to be a Brexiteer means you basically need to ignore reality or be some form of extreme libertarian or similar that want a no support style economy and burn the house down to get it. And that's were the problem for every Brexiteer here to date; they simply can't make a coherent argument for Brexit because quite frankly there is not one. Instead they start to insinuate things or start evoking emotions as reason (Sovereignty, taking back control etc.) but without actually being able to put a fact behind them. Or they simply go google up some Brexiteer blog and copy and paste the reasons why Brexit is good (without actually understanding them or able to argument about the reasons listed once challenged on them). This is were we've now ended up with the whole "Ireland should know it's place etc." because they simply run out of anything else to use as a reason.

Strazdas

fash wrote: »

That's genuinely very magnanimous - what is annoying is the dishonesty, the delusion as well as the ongoing (and fairly successful) attempts at destroying the structures of civil society.

Well the actual leaders of Brexit are all liars, spivs and / or idiots, that goes without saying.

I suspect a lot of the Brexit disciples are just deluded though, clinging on for dear life to an ideology that has long since been discredited.

First Up

Strazdas wrote:

The Brexit debate in Britain is fascinating for this reason. There is a bit of a siege like / bunker thing going on.....they know Brexit is hated but won't back down on the ideology for a moment.

But there is a huge and ever- widening gulf between the politicians we see spouting ideology in the media and the wealth creators and employers who are trying to manage their businesses while the floor is shifting beneath them.

Industrialists, manufacturers, agri-food producers, financial services providers, transport operators and retailers are screaming at Whitehall to think about the consequences of what they are doing.

They've been screaming about it since the Brexit vote and they get a sympathetic hearing (and support) from much of the UK civil service. Unfortunately the message has tended to get drowned out by the self-serving din coming from the political classes.

There will eventually be a price to be paid for this madness.

sparkling sea

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The other option?

This is not an option. It's pure madness from O'Toole. It's barely credible. And the sort of thing that if you had read it on here you'd dismiss it out of hand. Nonsense.

I wouldn't dismiss it or any other option without good reason ? Can you explain why you think it's not an option ?

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

And she's retiring. Wouldn't be re-elected anyway as her constituency is strongly Remain. Walking before she is pushed.

And the irony is that people like Hoey are demanding that the will of the people be delivered while she ignores the will of her constituents.

sparkling sea

brickster69 wrote: »

Have you considered how many Labour Mp's will be watching all of this going and vote for the Government. I reckon Labour has more or less destroyed itself.

I would consider a total of 1 Labour MP Sarah Champion would vote with the Government on a No Deal Brexit.

There are at least 42 Tory rebels prepared to vote against the government in a No Deal Brexit scenario and its seems they're beginning to realise the threat of it happening means they need a VONC soon.

Tell me how

sparkling sea wrote: »

I would consider a total of 1 Labour MP Sarah Champion would vote with the Government on a No Deal Brexit.

There are at least 42 Tory rebels prepared to vote against the government, in a No Deal Brexit scenario and its seems they're beginning to realise the threat of it happening means they need a VONC soon.

As above, Hoey is a dead cert No deal advocate.

sparkling sea

FrancieBrady wrote: »

O'Toole is running out of things to say about Brexit. I think he may have thought this would get some of viral traction. But he didn't model what would happen if his Baldrickian cunning plan looked like working. There would be even more mayhem in the UK parliament.

Or it might bring more clarity to the situation. Labour and the SNP forming a pact which would allow for a 2nd Scottish referendum is far more likely to cause mayhem, than 7 Remainers who only engage on a Brexit vote.

Beechwoodspark

My fear on no deal is by end of the year we could have multiple attacks carried out by an invigorated dissident force

FrancieBrady

sparkling sea wrote: »

Or it might bring more clarity to the situation. Labour and the SNP forming a pact which would allow for a 2nd Scottish referendum is far more likely to cause mayhem, than 7 Remainers who only engage on a Brexit vote.

If it is coming from a 'cunning SF plan' it will turn many MP's dithering on the remain-leave line totally 'leave'. It's lunacy too, because if it fails, SF would then pay a price for doing it.

Strazdas

First Up wrote: »

But there is a huge and ever- widening gulf between the politicians we see spouting ideology in the media and the wealth creators and employers who are trying to manage their businesses while the floor is shifting beneath them.

Industrialists, manufacturers, agri-food producers, financial services providers, transport operators and retailers are screaming at Whitehall to think about the consequences of what they are doing.

They've been screaming about it since the Brexit vote and they get a sympathetic hearing (and support) from much of the UK civil service. Unfortunately the message has tended to get drowned out by the self-serving din coming from the political classes.

There will eventually be a price to be paid for this madness.

The culprits are the politicians and the media. Most of them don't seem to have a clue about economics or international trade and are driven purely by ideology.

Professor Moriarty

Strazdas wrote: »

The culprits are the politicians and the media. Most of them don't seem to have a clue about economics or international trade and are driven purely by ideology.

It's almost as if they were saying "F*ck business".

Foghladh

Tell me how wrote: »

And the irony is that people like Hoey are demanding that the will of the people be delivered while she ignores the will of her constituents.

If you enforce that logic then yes she should be pushing the remain line. However 148 of her Labour parliamentary colleagues should be jumping to the other side. It's not that simple

Professor Moriarty

Foghladh wrote: »

If you enforce that logic then yes she should be pushing the remain line. However 148 of her Labour parliamentary colleagues should be jumping to the other side. It's not that simple

But these Leave constituencies didn't vote for No Deal.

BonnieSituation

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's somewhat unfortunate because there's a total lack of pro-Brexit posters here.
But then again on most forums where i've sought them out, they do tend to deviate into unsportsmanlike behavior.

We don't need "balance" we just need knowledge and facts.

And given how this has all gone the last while even the best of us are probably pro-Brexit now!

Robert McGrath

sparkling sea wrote: »

I wouldn't dismiss it or any other option without good reason ? Can you explain why you think it's not an option ?

Primarily because it assumes that there is anything predictable about parliamentary arithmetic in the HOC at the moment. There clearly isn’t and there hasn’t been for about a year. I’m all for having another stick to beat SF with, but this would be an extraordinary risk for SF to take with no guarantee that it would actually achieve anything

Strazdas

Foghladh wrote: »

If you enforce that logic then yes she should be pushing the remain line. However 148 of her Labour parliamentary colleagues should be jumping to the other side. It's not that simple

Someone who has studied the rules of the HoC says there is no requirement on MPs to represent the wishes of their constituents. They are merely supposed to represent the general interests of all people who live in the constituency - a referendum result is supposedly to be completely irrelevant.

This point of course has been hijacked by the Brexiteers to suit their own narrative.

BonnieSituation

sparkling sea wrote: »

I wouldn't dismiss it or any other option without good reason ? Can you explain why you think it's not an option ?

Because the president of SF said she would not entertain it.

And even if they were to entertain it it assumes it would happen in some sort of vacuum.

It's just nonsense.

Capt'n Midnight

Only 741 companies in the UK applied for part of an £8m training fund for companies and trade intermediaries such as freight forwarders.

£8m to cover training for 240,000 companies ?


Meanwhile here back in October
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1050774444740882432

sparkling sea

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If it is coming from a 'cunning SF plan' it will turn many MP's dithering on the remain-leave line totally 'leave'. It's lunacy too, because if it fails, SF would then pay a price for doing it.

It's hardly a cunning plan, it just makes sense if they are to put the interests of the Irish people before party. SF could gain a lot of support among non traditional supporters especially here.
It's more likely they'll calculate, they may achieve their goal of a United Ireland more speedily if the outcome is No Deal Brexit.

declanflynn

brickster69 wrote: »

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Labour MPs who will vote against their whip to keep a very right wing Tory party in power so that the Tories can destroy the economy by doing exactly what the vast majority of Labour party members do not want? I'd be interested in names and numbers.

I would love to have a bet that more Labour MP's would vote against Labour than Conservatives would in a VONC if Labour commited to stopping Brexit. They know fine well they would have a better chance of being elected again even as an independent.

That's easy paddy power 1800 238 888 mate, it's a different number if ur in britian

FrancieBrady

sparkling sea wrote: »

It's hardly a cunning plan, it just makes sense if they are to put the interests of the Irish people before party. SF could gain a lot of support among non traditional supporters especially here.
It's more likely they'll calculate, they may achieve their goal of a United Ireland more speedily if the outcome is No Deal Brexit.

The point is, that is how it will be seen. SF trying to influence parliament. There would be MP's who would commit Hari Kari rather than let them win. Anyway, it's a dead duck, I think Fintan took the huff and wrote an article today portraying SF as a cult or something. Didn't read it yet.

bilston

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

My fear on no deal is by end of the year we could have multiple attacks carried out by an invigorated dissident force

Do they have the capability? If they did have the capability they wouldn't require a hard Brexit or No Deal as an excuse to carry out attacks.

That's not to say they won't attempt some kind of "spectacular" to mark Brexit.

The economic consequences and the likely resulting civil disobedience would be more significant than any dissident campaign IMO. Once you bring people onto the streets you run the risk of losing control of the situation and then anything could happen.