Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

cml387

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She wasn't on to give an opinion, she was on to make speeches. SO'R let her off too many times.

I think he does that to lull the guest into a false sense of security. No point going in all guns blazing, guest just gets defensive.
In fact despite not wanting to talk about the gay cure, he still managed to make Widdicombe look a hypocrite by her claiming a right to free speech and then refusing the opportunity.

On Katya Adler, I note that her tweets are praised here when she says something we agree with, then she becomes a Brit propagandist when she reports things we don't agree with.

Hurrache

Adler is never praised here, she had always been called out.

Capt'n Midnight

robinph wrote: »

There are a million ways to spin the results to make it look like one side won, or not.

The turnout was down 18% though and the previous election Labour only won by 607 votes, this time they won by 683, which is a bigger margin than they had before both in number of votes and percentage of the vote.

TBH I'm tired of hearing the Tories come out with "but Labour lost votes too" as if they didn't loose 10 times as many councillors as Labour did.


If Corby resigned or even took up a position on Brexit then Labour could easily take power even if it meant a coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems. Giving the people a referendum would be cheap at the price.

Spanish Eyes

The question I have is, will the UK be better off out or in the EU.

I think it is hubris and patriotism that is driving this get out frenzy . There is no evidence that it will be for the benefit of the country (but maybe for the Tory party, and Labour seems to have lost its voice).

It is just coming across as totally bizarre to me anyway.

Enzokk

cml387 wrote: »

On Katya Adler, I note that her tweets are praised here when she says something we agree with, then she becomes a Brit propagandist when she reports things we don't agree with.

It could be, but it depends as well what she is tweeting about. I am sure my perception is wrong, but when she tweets about the events happening in Europe at the time she is praised for getting the information across. She is still the BBC reporter in the EU so will have cultivated her contacts.

Where she and the rest of the BBC falls down is once there is a downtime and they start game planning themselves on what will happen. She shouldn't be there to try and anticipate what will happen but to report what is happening and what could happen. Let me try and explain, if the EU comes out with a statement that the backstop is a problem and they are looking at possibly softening it with Ireland then she is free to speculate what it may mean. If the EU has said from the start that the border is non-negotiable and Ireland needs to be happy with the arrangements, she shouldn't be reporting about possible softening of the border.

Basically, her latest argument is against what the EU has been saying all along. While no-deal would be terrible, having the UK get a deal that will lead to the break-up of the EU will be 100 times worse. She seems to be implying that no-deal is scaring a lot of powerful countries and thus pressure can be brought against Ireland and the UK can get movement on the WA which has been ruled out countless times already.

farmerval

I was in Birmingham yesterday in the airport. Where we were sitting for a few minutes there were passport control desks in front of us, that is we were on the side where people had already passed through passport control but on the back of each of the passport control desks were a sign saying

"Please do not disturb our officers while they are busy protecting our borders"

Thought it was a really pointed statement, I mean they weren't on the cliffs of Dover with pitchforks keeping out the invading horde.

Spanish Eyes

I doubt any country in the EU (apart from ourselves and maybe Netherlands) give a fig about the UK's Brexit Blx right now.

Would that be right or wrong?

EU for sure do NOT want the UK to leave, but I doubt they will pursue this at any price. Hopefully.

If they do give concessions to UK ie the Border issue they will have broken an International Agreement for starters, and will ensure that smaller countries have no future stability or backup within the EU. Well that's what I think anyway.

Stop moaning ffs

I’m not sure how many times it has to be said. There will be no negotiations. No concessions. The backstop stays as it is. The WA stays at it is.

Spanish Eyes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’m not sure how many times it has to be said. There will be no negotiations. No concessions. The backstop stays as it is. The WA stays at it is.

Where are the guarantees for this? Hopefully you are right.

listermint

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Where are the guarantees for this? Hopefully you are right.

Stop spinning.

The WA was written down it's that or October out.

They can general election or second referendum that is the options open.

Nothing more . So enough.

Spanish Eyes

listermint wrote: »

Stop spinning.

The WA was written down it's that or October out.

They can general election or second referendum that is the options open.

Nothing more . So enough.

OK, thanks and hope you settle down now

Nothing is guaranteed though is it. It can all change on a hapenny really. That is the issue now. We do not know.

Stop moaning ffs

You should step away from whatever british media you’re ingesting

Look st the utter chaos and lack of leadership in the UK. On any front in any party.

You really honestly think the EU is going to reopen negotiations on a massively complex and finalised finished deal, with a UK government that has no PM, can’t even agree with itself what it wants or how to go forward and all vying to be PM are still spinning unicorns and rainbows and no actual grasp of the reality that the deal is done? No grasp on reality at all, any of them.

You’re smarter than to believe this i hope.

An Ciarraioch

cml387 wrote: »

I think he does that to lull the guest into a false sense of security. No point going in all guns blazing, guest just gets defensive.
In fact despite not wanting to talk about the gay cure, he still managed to make Widdicombe look a hypocrite by her claiming a right to free speech and then refusing the opportunity.

On Katya Adler, I note that her tweets are praised here when she says something we agree with, then she becomes a Brit propagandist when she reports things we don't agree with.

Strangely enough, the only British commentator with the slightest degree of credibility works for the Daily Telegraph - namely, Peter Foster.

listermint

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK, thanks and hope you settle down now

Nothing is guaranteed though is it. It can all change on a hapenny really. That is the issue now. We do not know.

No , we do know.

Sorry but stop.

Joe_ Public

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I doubt any country in the EU (apart from ourselves and maybe Netherlands) give a fig about the UK's Brexit Blx right now.

Would that be right or wrong?

EU for sure do NOT want the UK to leave, but I doubt they will pursue this at any price. Hopefully.

If they do give concessions to UK ie the Border issue they will have broken an International Agreement for starters, and will ensure that smaller countries have no future stability or backup within the EU. Well that's what I think anyway.

A couple of months back, while the whole voting debacle in the HOC was at its zenith, I remember the BBC had a German reporter on as a guest on one of their political shows and she explained how much the German public were enjoying the show, to them it was just pure theatre, a circus with Bercow cast in the role somewhere between clown/ringmaster.

As regards leaving, i think it's hard to be certain, but I very much doubt there will be any unanimity in the eu to grant a further extension without the guarantee of a second referendum or something like that. Can see Macron putting his foot down this time and not sure he'll be without support on it.

Thought this was an excellent contribution from Rafael Behr on the politics show today. Like he says, they should really be worried about how they are seen around the world in their current state.

https://twitter.com/murrayf00te/status/1136967634795282432

Spanish Eyes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

You should step away from whatever british media you’re ingesting

Look st the utter chaos and lack of leadership in the UK. On any front in any party.

You really honestly think the EU is going to reopen negotiations on a massively complex and finalised finished deal, with a UK government that has no PM, can’t even agree with itself what it wants or how to go forward and all vying to be PM are still spinning unicorns and rainbows and no actual grasp of the reality that the deal is done? No grasp on reality at all, any of them.

You’re smarter than to believe this i hope.

I hope I have my brains intact yes!

Live in hope that the UK will be put to pin of its collar on this one.

The impact of UK leaving with no deal will be difficult for us and other EU countries. That is a big issue for sure.

But I don't think it will happen, notwithstanding the Farage bump.

Stop moaning ffs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I hope I have my brains intact yes!

Live in hope that the UK will be put to pin of its collar on this one.

The impact of UK leaving with no deal will be difficult for us and other EU countries. That is a big issue for sure.

But I don't think it will happen, notwithstanding the Farage bump.

What Farage hump? The brexit party just lost a seat to labour in a constituency that had voted 65% to leave.
People are waking up (hopefully).
Problem is Tory’s aren’t. Especially those seeking to be PM.

I say let them go. Cut them off on October 31st.
What will probably happen is a request for another extension. They will be granted one on the basis that another referendum is held.
And this will roll on and on for years to come.

Unless they do install one of the more lunatic contenders like Raab and he just takes them out no deal.
I’d love to see this just because they deserve it at this point. And all that will come after. None of which is good.

But let’s see.

Spanish Eyes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What Farage hump? The brexit party just lost a seat to labour in a constituency that had voted 65% to leave.
People are waking up (hopefully).
Problem is Tory’s aren’t. Especially those seeking to be PM.

I say let them go. Cut them off on October 31st.
What will probably happen is a request for another extension. They will be granted one on the basis that another referendum is held.
And this will roll on and on for years to come.

Unless they do install one of the more lunatic contenders like Raab and he just takes them out no deal.
I’d love to see this just because they deserve it at this point. And all that will come after. None of which is good.

But let’s see.

The ultimate aim of the future PM contenders is the Tory party membership votes.

But firstly they have to get backing from the incumbent Tory MPs and I really hope most of them have half a brain right now, but you never know really.

What an awful vista. I have to say that whilst I would like to see UK experiencing the truth of a no deal, hopefully it won't happen now. But you never know.

Capt'n Midnight

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The question I have is, will the UK be better off out or in the EU.

Official UK Govt figures say No-Deal will result in a 9.3% hit to the economy.

The Divorce Bill is £39Bn.

It sounds like a lot of money but a lot of it is pensions for UK citizens which the UK can't avoid. The remainder would be in the order of what a No-Deal will cost their economy, Every, Single, Month.


The best case is if there's a good deal, they might be only 3.9% or a £100Bn a year down. ( ie. five and a half times £350m a week )
NB. these numbers were before a lot of the car plant closure announcements.

Spanish Eyes

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Official UK Govt figures say No-Deal will result in a 9.3% hit to the economy.

The Divorce Bill is £39Bn.

It sounds like a lot of money but a lot of it is pensions for UK citizens which the UK can't avoid. The remainder would be in the order of what a No-Deal will cost their economy, Every, Single, Month.


The best case is if there's a good deal, they might be only 3.9% or a £100Bn a year down. ( ie. five and a half times £350m a week )
NB. these numbers were before a lot of the car plant closure announcements.

Do Brexit supporters know this I wonder? All jingoism and Farage and so on as far as I can see with no analysis, but maybe the Brexiteers do not want to listen or see.

listermint

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Do Brexit supporters know this I wonder? All jingoism and Farage and so on as far as I can see with no analysis, but maybe the Brexiteers do not want to listen or see.

Your not new to this thread.

This has been covered extensively.

Spanish Eyes

listermint wrote: »

Your not new to this thread.

This has been covered extensively.

OK boss. What's the problem here please?

It's not like the issue has been resolved though is it.

Enzokk

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

OK, thanks and hope you settle down now

Nothing is guaranteed though is it. It can all change on a hapenny really. That is the issue now. We do not know.

Yes, it could, but who would the UK negotiate with? The EU will have to either appoint or elect the new EU Commission president and EU Council President. Michel Barnier was appointed by the EU Commission to be the chief negotiator, he has done his job. The new Commission will start its work on the 1st November, one day after Brexit is supposed to happen again, I don't think that is a coincidence at all.

So if the UK wants to renegotiate it will have to hope that the new Commission is willing to open the negotiations and that the new negotiator receives a different mandate than Barnier did.

So nothing new will happen because up to Brexit you have the same negotiators on the EU side and they will not change the deal they have already agreed.

New leader must still fix Irish border after Brexit - EU's Barnier

“The problem is there (with the Irish border), created by Brexit. We have to protect peace. Stability is not a question of goods or customs. It’s a question about people in Ireland, on both sides,” Barnier told a conference in Slovakia.

“In any case, a new prime minister will not change the problem. The problem is there and the new prime minister will have the responsibility with us to solve this problem.”

While Barnier declined to comment directly on May’s possible successor or comments by some of the candidates who have vowed to renegotiate the Brexit deal May had sealed with the EU but then failed to ratify at home, he did reiterate the bloc’s long-standing position on the stalled divorce.

“The point is to know whether the UK still wants to leave in an orderly manner,” Barnier said. “If this answer is ‘yes’... the Withdrawal Agreement is the only one possible.”

So they could wait for the new players to be in place but Barnier is tipped to take over from Juncker as head of the EU Commission. So the person who will appoint the next negotiator could possibly be the previous negotiator and one of his deputies is now head of the Trade department of the EU. I don't see how the UK is getting a different deal when the people in charge on the EU side will be the ones who negotiated the whole deal before. If anything it will be worse for the UK as Olly Robbins will be the fall guy for the Tories and they will appoint a new civil servant to deliver the impossible.

Spanish Eyes

Enzokk wrote: »

Yes, it could, but who would the UK negotiate with? The EU will have to either appoint or elect the new EU Commission president and EU Council President. Michel Barnier was appointed by the EU Commission to be the chief negotiator, he has done his job. The new Commission will start its work on the 1st November, one day after Brexit is supposed to happen again, I don't think that is a coincidence at all.

So if the UK wants to renegotiate it will have to hope that the new Commission is willing to open the negotiations and that the new negotiator receives a different mandate than Barnier did.

So nothing new will happen because up to Brexit you have the same negotiators on the EU side and they will not change the deal they have already agreed.

New leader must still fix Irish border after Brexit - EU's Barnier



So they could wait for the new players to be in place but Barnier is tipped to take over from Juncker as head of the EU Commission. So the person who will appoint the next negotiator could possibly be the previous negotiator and one of his deputies is now head of the Trade department of the EU. I don't see how the UK is getting a different deal when the people in charge on the EU side will be the ones who negotiated the whole deal before. If anything it will be worse for the UK as Olly Robbins will be the fall guy for the Tories and they will appoint a new civil servant to deliver the impossible.

I thought I read somewhere that Olly Robbins was gone now. Maybe wrong about that.

Anyway, the changing of the guard in EU might not be a bad thing since UK might think that they are dealing with the old guard and might just feel comfortable with "bullying" the new EU negotiators, who as you say are the same cohort anyway.

I really don't know, nor does anyone really.

listermint

I'm actually struggling to understand your thought process. Changing of the guard is good..good for who. The UK might feel comfortable bullying the new guard

Why is that good.


The UK is out in Oct unless they do something internally dramatic. That's jobs and a dive in the economy greater than 2008.

What's good about that. I just really don't understand what you are Getting at.

Tell me how

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I thought I read somewhere that Olly Robbins was gone now. Maybe wrong about that.

Anyway, the changing of the guard in EU might not be a bad thing since UK might think that they are dealing with the old guard and might just feel comfortable with "bullying" the new EU negotiators, who as you say are the same cohort anyway.

I really don't know, nor does anyone really.

The EU has had a consistent message and approach since the start on this. No matter what you and Katya Adler might think, there are zero signs that they are going to change.

Why would they acquiesce to any of the same style of pleading/bullying, statements which they have heard from May, Davis, Raab, Johnson, Hunt, Ian Duncan Smyth and a conga line of others for 3 years and wearily dismissed any notion that it might work.

Say they change now, what message would that put out heading in to the real work, the trade negotiations?

The UK and it's media should focus on the reality that even after the gains they made in the EU elections, the Brexit party could not take the seat in the Peterborough by election and that the vote moved from 64% to leave in 2016 to 51% voting for Brexit candidates this time round.

Professor Moriarty

Michael Gove says he took cocaine. This is problematic. I've never taken cocaine so is Michael Gove cooler than me?

Jamiekelly

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Michael Gove says he took cocaine. This is problematic. I've never taken cocaine so is Michael Gove cooler than me?

Don't worry about it. If mandatory drug testing was to be introduced into the HoC tomorrow a solid 1/3 of the MPs would probably fail. Remember Lord Sewel getting caught snorting cocaine off a prostitute about 3 years ago? That's just the tip of the iceberg I'd say. :P

Get Real

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Michael Gove says he took cocaine. This is problematic. I've never taken cocaine so is Michael Gove cooler than me?

I wouldn't say he's cooler than you. Probably a pre-emptive statement to rule out some background pressure.

I don't think it's a coincidence that at the same time he's running to be PM, he comes out with this. Someone, somewhere must have "had" this on him, and him coming out and saying it, takes away their (perceived) power over him.

Zubeneschamali

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The impact of UK leaving with no deal will be difficult for us and other EU countries.

Yes, it will, but consider: suppose Boris or Raab is PM and somehow gets around Parliament and crashes the UK out with No Deal on October 31st.

What will they do on November 1st? OK, it's a Friday, so they'll probably have a street party up and down the country. But on Monday 4th they will have to send someone to talk to the EU about trade, borders, visas, flights, lorry permits, all that day to day stuff, and the EU will say "Lads, about that backstop...".

They can't last the winter without a deal of some sort, so the Border will be gone again by next spring.