Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

My fear on no deal is by end of the year we could have multiple attacks carried out by an invigorated dissident force

I'd give you 100/1 on that. Not a chance.

They have no support. And Nationalists can now see the prize of a UI in sight. There'll be no reason to do it.

beggars_bush

Even if SF were guaranteeing a 32 county state, a lot of people still wouldn't vote for them. Myself included

sparkling sea

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Primarily because it assumes that there is anything predictable about parliamentary arithmetic in the HOC at the moment. There clearly isn’t and there hasn’t been for about a year. I’m all for having another stick to beat SF with, but this would be an extraordinary risk for SF to take with no guarantee that it would actually achieve anything

The outcomes of the votes in Parliament have been predicted with ease by most seasoned pundits, it's purely a numbers game ? In fairness, there have been very few surprises.
This could really be the making of SF, it's a calculated risk but they'd have a fairly good idea of the outcome. I doubt they'll move from safety net abstentionism.

Foghladh

Strazdas wrote: »

Someone who has studied the rules of the HoC says there is no requirement on MPs to represent the wishes of their constituents. They are merely supposed to represent the general interests of all people who live in the constituency - a referendum result is supposedly to be completely irrelevant.

This point of course has been hijacked by the Brexiteers to suit their own narrative.

I don't disagree. The point I was responding to was in regards to Kate Hoey being a Leave advocate in a Remain constituency. Presumably in that case the narrative has been hijacked by the Remainers?

sparkling sea

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The point is, that is how it will be seen. SF trying to influence parliament. There would be MP's who would commit Hari Kari rather than let them win. Anyway, it's a dead duck, I think Fintan took the huff and wrote an article today portraying SF as a cult or something. Didn't read it yet.

If the past couple of years has thought us anything, it should be that Northern Ireland, NI non British political parties are of little significance to large sections of the British public, particularly the English politicians. Also Fintan O Toole's suggests that for the sake of the Irish people, SF candidates could step down now and form a pact other NI remain parties, running 1 remain candidate in each constituency, this would negate any worry of dependency on Sinn Fein support.

trashcan

bilston wrote: »

The economic consequences and the likely resulting civil disobedience would be more significant than any dissident campaign IMO. Once you bring people onto the streets you run the risk of losing control of the situation and then anything could happen.

If it's a no deal, and the economic fallout is as severe as predicted there could be trouble in Britain that will make the poll tax riots and the disturbances of the early eighties look like a day at the seaside. Things could get pretty ugly.

sparkling sea

Tell me how wrote: »

As above, Hoey is a dead cert No deal advocate.

Very true, but she is representing a remain constituency. When it comes to crunch ,she might tow the party line, particularly if it also means she's likely to keep her seat.

Water John

When social cohesion breaks down, it's very hard to put the genie in the bottle.

FrancieBrady

sparkling sea wrote: »

If the past couple of years has thought us anything, it should be that Northern Ireland, NI non British political parties are of little significance to large sections of the British public, particularly the English politicians. Also Fintan O Toole's suggests that for the sake of the Irish people, SF candidates could step down now and form a pact other NI remain parties, running 1 remain candidate in each constituency, this would negate any worry of dependency on Sinn Fein support.

But that would be like asking FG to step down and allow other people to represent their constituents, who electedFG to do/not do something.

It's crazy to demand/ask it of any political party. Especially one you go onto portray as a cult and (having since read Fintan's latest piece) sectarinise the debate again, by alluding to SF's political opponents as 'protestants'.

Fintan is just taking cheap shots. He is a fine writer sometimes, but columns must be filled.

BluePlanet

sparkling sea wrote: »

The outcomes of the votes in Parliament have been predicted with ease by most seasoned pundits, it's purely a numbers game ? In fairness, there have been very few surprises.
This could really be the making of SF, it's a calculated risk but they'd have a fairly good idea of the outcome. I doubt they'll move from safety net abstentionism.

Why should SF prevent Britain from self inflicted wounds?
Let No Deal Brexit happen and a UI inches closer.

Professor Moriarty

sparkling sea wrote: »

Very true, but she is representing a remain constituency. When it comes to crunch ,she might tow the party line, particularly if it also means she's likely to keep her seat.

She's retiring and won't be going forward for re-election.

BluePlanet

If the WA passed with a NI backstop then NI would enjoy best of both worlds: plugged directly into the UK's economy and full access to the EU. It would be a selling point for businesses there.

However from SF's POV such a scenario would likely set-back a UI or 20-25 years. Not exactly something their going to countenance taking risks for like Fintan O'Toole's idea.

Strazdas

Foghladh wrote: »

I don't disagree. The point I was responding to was in regards to Kate Hoey being a Leave advocate in a Remain constituency. Presumably in that case the narrative has been hijacked by the Remainers?

Given that the referendum was advisory, any talk of what way the constituency voted is irrelevant (which gets Hoey off the hook).

Besides, two whole countries, Scotland and NI, voted against Brexit and are being ignored by Westminster so any talk of mere constituencies and the way they voted is nonsensical.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Yes, I have seen that slide. But tell me, how much of the stuff in the first fortnight will effect the lives of the average brexiteer? I seriously doubt the beginnings of dificulty in the UK economey will interupt their party in the first two weeks of Brexit. Do you really think your average conservative party voter / brexiteer will have gone on the journey from supporting no-deal to a backlash against Boris within two weeks? I don't. I think they will back Borris in a landslide for delivering a true Brexit. A year later and the same people might want his head on a pike if no-deal continues, but after two weeks, he will still be a hero.

It's not the hard line Tory or BP voting people who are the issue here. Those ones will go down with the ship or will be insulated from the worst of it. It's the middle bunch who haven't given it a whole lot of thought and just want it all to go away who will suddenly wake up and realise how much they were conned. And that's a lot of voters.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

As for what the EU can do, again I won't pretend to be an expert. While the treaties shall cease to apply once Brexit occures, I am not certain that it is impossible, if the UK gives the EU everything it wants re the backstop etc, that an agreemeent can't be reached which would see the treaties reapplied for a given duration while the future relationship is worked out.

Without reference to EU law, this is just wishful thinking. The EU is a rules based organisation. If it's not in the rules, it can't happen. Not won't, can't.

lawred2

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

Stop please

?

Think you quoted the wrong post

Tikki Wang Wang

I like Emma Barnett on newsnight. She is more hard nosed than Emily Matliss

McGiver

fash wrote:

That's genuinely very magnanimous - what is annoying is the dishonesty, the delusion as well as the ongoing (and fairly successful) attempts at destroying the structures of civil society.

They are genuinely the seed of authoritarianism or fascism whatever you call it, and should not be taken lightly.

People who are essentially brainwashed, who don't engage in fact based discussion, who ignore facts and/or outright reject them altogether, who think there is some sort of a conspiracy going on and who "believe" in some sort of an ideology despite all the facts pointing to the fact that such ideology is harmful - such people may be used by authoritarian regimes and/or authoritarian personalities, and it usually ends up terribly badly when it happens. This had already happened many times before.

What it takes is two have a power hungry regime/personality, large % of brainwashed population + large % of population who don't care, someone to blame and typically a serious economic crisis - and then boom and it happens.

I see all has been moving into this direction in the UK. Lack of codified constitution and FPTP is a big risk factor too. And in fairness, the highest risk of UK crashing out isn't an economic one, but a political one. Under right circumstances, the UK could become a US vassal state and move politically even further right into some sort of a very nasty (quasi-) authoritarian country. No one in the EU wants to have another such, likely belligerent, nuclear weapon capable country on their doorstep, we already have Turkey and Russia.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

But why bother ? no deal from the tory ERG point of view is simple and delivers Brexit on time as delivered. Like I said if you assume nothing but Tory self-interest - and that's been a recurring theme all along - Hard Brexit is the obvious choice

Only if you believe that no deal is their aim. I don't believe that's the case. Johnson has his bum on the seat of power and no deal will put a very finite lifespan on said bum's sojourn on that seat.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1159223860149051398

Yeh see what's interesting about this is that it's a very sensitive constituency - farmers - for the DUP.

They won't be happy.

Water John

Most dairy farms in NI operate on a high input system, often cows housed all year round. This model is much more sensitive to volatility.

WomanSkirtFan8

maynooth_rules wrote: »

A 32 county Ireland will happen inspite of Sinn F, not in anyway thanks to them. The utter definition of hulers in the ditches.

exactly. A UI will only happen under the terms laid out in the GFA. It's something that would take years if not decades to do due to the extremely complex and sensitive issues involed.:cool:

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1159223860149051398

Yeh see what's interesting about this is that it's a very sensitive constituency - farmers - for the DUP.

They won't be happy.

Defra guy on after was just unbelievable. No plan and nothing to offer as a solution.

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

They are genuinely the seed of authoritarianism or fascism whatever you call it, and should not be taken lightly.

People who are essentially brainwashed, who don't engage in fact based discussion, who ignore facts and/or outright reject them altogether, who think there is some sort of a conspiracy going on and who "believe" in some sort of an ideology despite all the facts pointing to the fact that such ideology is harmful - such people may be used by authoritarian regimes and/or authoritarian personalities, and it usually ends up terribly badly when it happens. This had already happened many times before.

What it takes is two have a power hungry regime/personality, large % of brainwashed population + large % of population who don't care, someone to blame and typically a serious economic crisis - and then boom and it happens.

I see all has been moving into this direction in the UK. Lack of codified constitution and FPTP is a big risk factor too. And in fairness, the highest risk of UK crashing out isn't an economic one, but a political one. Under right circumstances, the UK could become a US vassal state and move politically even further right into some sort of a very nasty (quasi-) authoritarian country. No one in the EU wants to have another such, likely belligerent, nuclear weapon capable country on their doorstep, we already have Turkey and Russia.

Good points. No constitution, FPTP, a dumbed down population (many of whom are hard right and xenophobes) and a lying, corrupt media is a toxic mix.

The one big hope is that most young people in Britain don't fit this description. You'd be hopeful the current crowd of ageing fascist sympathisers can be driven off the stage in disgrace.

Besides, the UK possibly won't even exist in a decade....we could be down to a solitary England rump state.

Foghladh

WomanSkirtFan8 wrote: »

exactly. A UI will only happen under the terms laid out in the GFA. It's something that would take years if not decades to do due to the extremely complex and sensitive issues involed.:cool:

Are there 'terms' laid out in the GFA regarding unification? Or is it at the discretion of the Secretary of State? And if it is the decision to hold a poll does the GFA give any guidance? I don't believe that it does.

Kermit.de.frog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Defra guy on after was just unbelievable. No plan and nothing to offer as a solution.

When pushed he said "but they will lose jobs in the south too" :rolleyes:


No solution - just EU has to do a deal because they get damaged too.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

Most dairy farms in NI operate on a high input system, often cows housed all year round. This model is much more sensitive to volatility.

I often find myself poking around the farming threads on here and find it fascinating but I do get lost sometimes.

In this case, what do you mean by "high input"?

prawnsambo

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I often find myself poking around the farming threads on here and find it fascinating but I do get lost sometimes.

In this case, what do you mean by "high input"?

I would assume more feed than grazing.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

When pushed he said "but they will lose jobs in the south too" :rolleyes:


No solution - just EU has to do a deal because they get damaged too.

Already started. Aren't Dawn closing three plants?

McGiver

Strazdas wrote:

Good points. No constitution, FPTP, a dumbed down population (many of whom are hard right and xenophobes) and a lying, corrupt media is a toxic mix.

They do have a constitution, but it's convoluted and hard to enforce unlike a codified one. Codified one is harder to bypass but it is still doable with a coup d'état and brainwashed population. In UK case it could be bypassed by a salami method and we've already seen some indications of it. You basically try ignoring it, and move on, normalising the unconstitutional condition and keep doing this step by step, no revolution or coup needed. It's a gradual slide into the authoritarianism, and most even won't notice.

Strazdas wrote:

The one big hope is that most young people in Britain don't fit this description. You'd be hopeful the current crowd of ageing fascist sympathisers can be driven off the stage in disgrace.

I am afraid they mostly don't care and I would expect them to emigrate as well if things get bad.

FrancieBrady

Foghladh wrote: »

Are there 'terms' laid out in the GFA regarding unification? Or is it at the discretion of the Secretary of State? And if it is the decision to hold a poll does the GFA give any guidance? I don't believe that it does.

The closest example is the Scottish vote, the poll took place 2 years from the publication of the White Paper. The plan was that if the vote was successful Scotland would declare Independence day. But I don't think anyone put a time on how long the negotiations would take.