Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Boris has formed a pact with the devil;
However, it is understood that alarm is mounting within No 10, among some special advisers and Tory MPs about the scale of Cummings’ influence and willingness to defy parliament.
One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign. Guardian.

Bonnie, they use a lot of concentrate feed bought in, usually from the international market. Dairy farmer who keeps cows at grass would use about .5 tonne meal per cow. These farmers would be using over 2 to 3 tonne per cow. In return the cow would be higher yielding, maybe 9K litres as opposed to 5.5K litres. Farming lesson over.

McGiver

sparkling sea wrote:

It's hardly a cunning plan, it just makes sense if they are to put the interests of the Irish people before party. SF could gain a lot of support among non traditional supporters especially here. It's more likely they'll calculate, they may achieve their goal of a United Ireland more speedily if the outcome is No Deal Brexit.

It could speed it up, but not necessarily - and this is not taken into account in the UI discussions. If we assume quasi-authoritarian/hard-right post Brexit government, which is, by all indications, quite likely, they may simply not call a border poll... ever, it is fully upon HMG discretion when it can be called. And they may even ignore GFA altogether. You would expect such hard right government to exercise tight grip over their territories. Direct rule in NI is almost sure for starters...

But I agree that making NI a special economic zone both in the EU and the UK would make UI less likely, because in such situation the reason for UI essentially evaporates - why undergoing the hassle of unification if the economy fares well, there's no border, there's all Ireland economy and you remain an Irish/EU citizen if you wish to identify as one.

declanflynn

Water John wrote: »

Boris has formed a pact with the devil;
However, it is understood that alarm is mounting within No 10, among some special advisers and Tory MPs about the scale of Cummings’ influence and willingness to defy parliament.
One Conservative insider said that Cummings had in effect demanded control over Johnson’s operation as his price for entering government and proceeded to sideline more moderate advisers, such as ex-City Hall stalwart Sir Eddie Lister, while installing a team of “true believers” in hard Brexit largely from the former Vote Leave campaign. Guardian.

Bonnie, they use a lot of concentrate feed bought in, usually from the international market. Dairy farmer who keeps cows at grass would use about .5 tonne meal per cow. These farmers would be using over 2 to 3 tonne per cow. In return the cow would be higher yielding, maybe 9K litres as opposed to 5.5K litres. Farming lesson over.

They wouldn't yield that much more, that system is only operated by lads with limited land around the parlour, most dairy farmers can't wait to let the cows out in the spring even if it's only for a few hours during the day

MrMusician18

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1159223860149051398

Yeh see what's interesting about this is that it's a very sensitive constituency - farmers - for the DUP.

They won't be happy.

Forgive me if my sympathy is in short supply for them. We have to remember that 45% of NI voters voted for leave.

Considering that the DUP were the only mainstream NI party backing leave, I would bet that there is a lot of DUP farmers that voted out.

BonnieSituation

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The closest example is the Scottish vote, the poll took place 2 years from the publication of the White Paper. The plan was that if the vote was successful Scotland would declare Independence day. But I don't think anyone put a time on how long the negotiations would take.

They envisaged in the White Paper that it could take up to 18 months. The idea was to be out by March 2016.

BonnieSituation

Water John wrote: »

Bonnie, they use a lot of concentrate feed bought in, usually from the international market. Dairy farmer who keeps cows at grass would use about .5 tonne meal per cow. These farmers would be using over 2 to 3 tonne per cow. In return the cow would be higher yielding, maybe 9K litres as opposed to 5.5K litres. Farming lesson over.

Much thanks.

4068ac1elhodqr

Market starting to look short on a no-deal scenario @2.4, not to mention today's current fx of .9250



A talking head on the TVnews said closer to Oct31 it could get to, or very close to parity, even if things so smooth.
If things go bad, it's anyones guess as to what sterling will be.

joeysoap

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Forgive me if my sympathy is in short supply for them. We have to remember that 45% of NI voters voted for leave.

Considering that the DUP were the only mainstream NI party backing leave, I would bet that there is a lot of DUP farmers that voted out.

UTV news tonight. Enniskillen show. Farmers, clearly DUP supporters, EU must do a deal and from a Bushmills farmer Brexit will happen and we’ll just get on with it

No real regrets there.

reslfj

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No solution - just EU has to do a deal because they get damaged too.

When will you understand the EU27 doesn't care for the cost and the immediate damage?

They can and will pay any bill to preserve the internal market (SM)

EU27 members dislike Brexit for the division it creates in Europe.

But the UK has passed far beyond the breaking point. The EU27 will now just wait until the UK comes crawling on some 'warm and sunny' November/December day and asks for a deal - any deal really.

The first point the EU27 agenda will be an agreement with all text from the WA except the transition periods and it must be ratified by the UK.

It will be gloves off. The EU is known to get its way very close to 100% in all negotiations with (developed) 3. countries.

Lars

Enzokk

BluePlanet wrote: »

If the WA passed with a NI backstop then NI would enjoy best of both worlds: plugged directly into the UK's economy and full access to the EU. It would be a selling point for businesses there.

However from SF's POV such a scenario would likely set-back a UI or 20-25 years. Not exactly something their going to countenance taking risks for like Fintan O'Toole's idea.

I don't know if that deal for NI sets back a UI. It will all depend on how the UK does outside of the EU. If they struggle, even with NI in the SM and CU pressure will be on to cut the costs paid to NI. So while they may do better and you would think it puts back unification, if the effects on the UK is severe enough I don't think the NI only backstop would delay it that much.

Enzokk

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Latest on BBC news TV is that Brexit won't be as bad as feared,

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49270872

Oh look over there EU will be hurt says another article from them

That is an interesting article, basically it will not be as bad for the UK due to French preparations and procedures. Imagine taking back control only to have another country having such a big influence on disruption on your trade.

The government is assuming that French preparations for customs and regulatory checks have markedly decreased the anticipated trade disruption from a no-deal Brexit, the BBC has learned.

"Reasonable worst case scenarios" still anticipate long disruption to about half the freight crossing the Channel.

For anyone interested, here is a Newsnight link and how Emma Barnett handled the presenting duties.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5CEJBnSyTI

MrMusician18

Despite what some posters here think, the chaos in the UK following no deal, while serious won't be all encompassing. This is simply because the measures the EU has taken unilaterally to protect itself have a side benefit of protecting the UK too.

What will be interesting to see is the sectors that the EU won't facilitate or where no deal planning is limited in its intervention. These will be strategic choices and a demonstration on the iron fist in the velvet glove, so where the EU chooses to put pressure on the UK will be telling.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

Already started. Aren't Dawn closing three plants?

People have been laid off temporarily until the farmers picketing the plants over low prices will allow the plants to operate again.

Cant say for certain if the low beef prices are related to brexit.

lawred2

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

BBC TV news blurb did not mention the French, showed a carpark somewhere on UK side saying, see because we built this facility the delays to exports won't be as bad.

This car park and examination bays cost something like 15m.. all upside this Brexit.

LuckyLloyd

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Primarily because it assumes that there is anything predictable about parliamentary arithmetic in the HOC at the moment. There clearly isn’t and there hasn’t been for about a year. I’m all for having another stick to beat SF with, but this would be an extraordinary risk for SF to take with no guarantee that it would actually achieve anything

Moreover, it places the responsibility (or at least some responsibility) for a solution on some other entity from some other country. Brexit is an English / Welsh problem managed by a Conservative government and the solution to any issues that stem from it lie within the politics of England / Wales / the Conservative party.

O’Toole’s idea is automatically on the wrong track because it shifts focus / responsibility away from where it lies. That’s the ultimate game here too: the Conservative government are desperate to shift the blame to the opposition, to the Irish government, to the EU. They should not be let. Sort out your own mess please or pull the trigger on the gun you’ve pointed at your head, if you actually have the balls.

PeadarCo

VinLieger wrote:

Cant say for certain if the low beef prices are related to brexit.

Part of farmers protests are about the cut they get from the final retail price of what they produce. In this case they want more money from the processors. Low beef prices have been an issue for years. However a hard Brexit will make the situation worse.

PeadarCo

LuckyLloyd wrote:

O’Toole’s idea is automatically on the wrong track because it shifts focus / responsibility away from where it lies. That’s the ultimate game here too: the Conservative government are desperate to shift the blame to the opposition, to the Irish government, to the EU. They should not be let. Sort out your own mess please or pull the trigger on the gun you’ve pointed at your head, if you actually have the balls.

Where O Toole does have a point is that NI and arguably the entire Brexit debate in the UK has suffered from letting the DUP be NI de facto voice in the House of Commons. There is nobody there who can challenge some of rubbish that comes from hard Brexiters. I use the word rubbish because hearing some live snippets from the various debates indicates the UK parliament as a whole don't really understand the issues with the Irish border in the context of Brexit.

LuckyLloyd

PeadarCo wrote: »

Where O Toole does have a point is that NI and arguably the entire Brexit debate in the UK has suffered from letting the DUP be NI de facto voice in the House of Commons. There is nobody there who can challenge some of rubbish that comes from hard Brexiters. I use the word rubbish because hearing some live snippets from the various debates indicates the UK parliament as a whole don't really understand the issues with the Irish border in the context of Brexit.

There have been plenty of voices explaining the situation in the North. There are none so blind as those who will not see, as it were. The Conservatives / DUP need to solve the mess they have made, not SF or the Irish government.

Seth Brundle

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Defra guy on after was just unbelievable. No plan and nothing to offer as a solution.

He was truly shocking. The only positive message I got from him was his opinion of how wonderful Michael Gove is...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159223114590347264

However, she interviewed ex-Sainsbury's CEO who was very good at articulating how the retail sector will be affected...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159225624344403968

Leroy42

Seth Brundle wrote: »

He was truly shocking. The only positive message I got from him was his opinion of how wonderful Michael Gove is...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159223114590347264

I like Emma but I thought that interview was deeply infuriating.

He kept going on about how the EU and Ireland need to do more to prepare to allow for trade, when the simple retort is that they already did. By way of the WA they negotiated and agreed a way to maintain things as they are but UK rejected it, now official government policy.

Why would the EU have to prepare a new way?

And why did she not pull him up on his claim that it relied on the EU? How is that taking back control?

And why did she not ask hi what happens if the EU don't 'prepare'. What then? He says they are prepared but it seems only on the basis of the EU digging them out. Since No Deal is now policy, what are the actual plans? He didn't mention one plan at all!

It is a constant across every Brexiteer. They always revert to attacking to EU or Ireland, trying to blame others or point out what problems they (EU Etc) will have. But they never can give any answer to the UK problems.

TBF, why would some farmer in Armagh give a sh1t about people in RoI being unemployed? That is Irelands problem, they are only concerned about themselves.

ambro25

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

(...)

Aside, Macron did not want give extension to Brits, I doubt he will bend backwards to accommodate them in no deal, quite the opposite. Calais will have the UK by the balls one could say.

Sangatte (illegals camp) has been quite the pointy thorn in his presidential side, generating plenty of political pressure by the local electeds.

Given Macron's style, I'm tempted to predict an opportunistic, unilateral and rather Schadenfreundish resolution of the issue, through a typically French 'official-but-not' ("someone let them know on the quiet that CRS, Gendarmes and Douaniers will all be on a permanent café-croissant break" :pac:) transferring of the source of the problem to Kent, through the chaotic and highly porous UK border ports.

Then Macron will go tap Johnson for yet another chunk of Brit taxpayers' money (like he did with Theresa, Hollande did with Cameron, Sarko did with (...)) to help take care of the never-ending problem. Hey, if Tories can gain millions of votes and Farage can make millions out of frightening the gullible about immigration, and UK authorities still see no wrong with that, then what is sauce for the goose and all that.

PeadarCo

LuckyLloyd wrote:

There have been plenty of voices explaining the situation in the North. There are none so blind as those who will not see, as it were. The Conservatives / DUP need to solve the mess they have made, not SF or the Irish government.

The point is a lot of people in the UK as so eloquently put by Karen Bradley don't understand and see the difference between SF DUP and any other NI and even Irish political party. Anecdotally I have had similar conversations with some people in the UK who don't fully understand Ireland is an independent country. Nevermind Northern Ireland. And the people with whom I have the conversations would not be hard Brexiters and not even overly interested in politics. However I acknowledge this is all completely anecdotal.

In terms of SF position. Everyone knows their position and its not going to change anytime soon. However it's a perfectly valid criticism to point out their constituencies don't have a voice in the House of Commons and the consequences. However this is something SF and the people who vote for them are aware of and have accepted. Anybody who doesn't agree with their stance is always going to point this out.

Enzokk

A couple of Dominic Cummings pieces this morning, one that explains for me the strategy in some way of Johnson, and the other taking the mickey with him that he will just be another adviser that will be thrown to the rubbish heap once he is found out.

Dominic Cummings: Why Johnson's top adviser would relish cutting 'dreadful' MPs from Brexit

This article tries to portray him as having very little time for MPs as he holds them in disdain. Seems to me that it points to politicians being a tool for him to shape his version of the world on the UK. Some useful idiots.

Here, he became an expert in running focus groups - listening to public concerns about the currency and working out what messages they were most receptive to.

During this time, he also started to lose respect for politicians.

He told me that very soon he decided: "99% of MPs are dreadful characters and if you want anything professionally organised you've got to exclude them, which causes a lot of trouble".

This disdainful attitude towards MPs helps explain why Mr Cummings would have no qualms about forcing through a Brexit outcome that was against the wishes of parliament - either by proroguing parliament, or delaying a general election until after the Brexit date.

So this explains the position the UK is taking. They want to leave without a deal as this is what he wants to happen. Why else would politicians who has seen the reports and is elected to represent their voters think about going through with it? It makes sense that someone in the background who has no responsibility of the results will be willing to go ahead with this. Add in a lazy PM who is there not to work but to be the face of the operation you have trouble brewing.

Then we have a piece that tries to show that he is not the greatest genius, he is just another in a long line that has gotten into positions of power behind MPs.

Dominic Cummings, the latest self-appointed genius to run 10 Downing Street, is the most deluded of them all

Some interesting paragraphs,

Into the dawn light, the great man strode, ready to do great things. Dominic Cummings, vanguard and as yet sole member of the gilet noir movement, emerging into his new life, where the TV news cameras wait outside his house every morning.

Cummings stomped up his own exterior steps as if they were the establishment he is about to crush. Well, some of the establishment, anyway. Not all the establishment. Not, say, his father-in-law, the baronet Sir Humphry Wakefield, nor any of the extended family, including, to take a randomised sample, the 1st Viscount De L’Isle, the 1st Baron Howick of Glendale or the 5th Earl Grey, from whom the family pile, Chillingham Castle, was acquired. The castle is also, we understand, fine for now.

It’s the rest of the establishment that needs to worry. Politicians, the civil service, the media, all the broken things that were doing such a terrible job of running the country before Cummings came along in 2016 and incinerated them with his big flamethrower of lies. They’re the ones who need to panic.

I fail to see once again how he will have the interests of the people in the working class in his thoughts. As for how it might end for him,

Cummings is merely the latest in a long line of geniuses to run things for the Conservatives in 10 Downing Street. First there was Andy Coulson, whose genius took him to prison. Then there was Steve Hilton, whose genius took him to a life of Donald Trump fanboyism on Fox News. Then there was Craig Oliver, whose genius took him to losing the referendum campaign. Then there was Nick Timothy, whose genius took him to tirelessly writing self-exculpating columns for the crime of accidentally detonating the full holy trinity: his career, his prime minister and his country.

The tagline of the article says it all really, this is what he will do if he is allowed enough time,

"What is the Conservative Party for, after all, what is Conservatism, if it’s not to smash everything to bits and rebuild it in accordance with the 25,000 word blog posts of some wide-eyed zealot?"

road_high

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Forgive me if my sympathy is in short supply for them. We have to remember that 45% of NI voters voted for leave.

Considering that the DUP were the only mainstream NI party backing leave, I would bet that there is a lot of DUP farmers that voted out.

I’ve zero sympathy for that lot- we need to protect our own agricultural production from the potentially ****e food they’re going to be importing from god knows where. We’ll see what they think of brexit then they’re competing with hormone fed crap.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

I like Emma but I thought that interview was deeply infuriating.

He kept going on about how the EU and Ireland need to do more to prepare to allow for trade, when the simple retort is that they already did. By way of the WA they negotiated and agreed a way to maintain things as they are but UK rejected it, now official government policy.

Why would the EU have to prepare a new way?

And why did she not pull him up on his claim that it relied on the EU? How is that taking back control?

And why did she not ask hi what happens if the EU don't 'prepare'. What then? He says they are prepared but it seems only on the basis of the EU digging them out. Since No Deal is now policy, what are the actual plans? He didn't mention one plan at all!

It is a constant across every Brexiteer. They always revert to attacking to EU or Ireland, trying to blame others or point out what problems they (EU Etc) will have. But they never can give any answer to the UK problems.

TBF, why would some farmer in Armagh give a sh1t about people in RoI being unemployed? That is Irelands problem, they are only concerned about themselves.

I think she did well though. The whole piece was about cattle in NI and the impact no-deal will have on them. He was all over the place, talking about how the government will not kill livestock or trying to divert the attention away from the story to the EU. He had his talking points and was trying to stick to it but in the end for me he was just another clueless minister.

In fairness to him he was only at the ministry for a few months before he left when May resigned so I didn't think he would be able to provide much as I have never heard of him before and will probably not hear of him in the future.

The full video gives a better picture of Emma Barnett's work on the night. She was very hard on the ex-CEO of Sainsbury as well and how with the contingencies that companies will have in place will mean no-deal will not be the disaster people fear. She was very good, even if it didn't suit my point of view in that piece.

Here is a link to the whole piece, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5CEJBnSyTI

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

He was truly shocking. The only positive message I got from him was his opinion of how wonderful Michael Gove is...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159223114590347264

However, she interviewed ex-Sainsbury's CEO who was very good at articulating how the retail sector will be affected...
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159225624344403968

Find this very strange wishful thinking analysis of these two interviews (tbh I thought the were both crap interviewees)

The sainsbury CEO was even accused by interviewer of not even believing or acting on his own project fear. He was talking in riddles, that made no sense.

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

road_high

downcow wrote: »

Find this very strange wishful thinking analysis of these two interviews (tbh I thought the were both crap interviewees)

The sainsbury CEO was even accused by interviewer of not even believing or acting on his own project fear. He was talking in riddles, that made no sense.

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

Yes because being confident and wishful thinking are exactly what is needed.

Ben Done

Did anyone catch BBC Radio Ulster this morning?

I tuned in to hear what I presume was a farmers' representative speaking about Brexit, but he was cut off shortly after casually using the phrase 'the n*gger in the woodpile'..

One would have thought that expression had been consigned to the dustbin of history, and clearly the presenter thought that also, as they cut him off and apologised for it.

Just wondering if anyone else heard it, and who it was?

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

It was explained in the first 4 minutes of the video I linked. It is to do with the cost of milk and how much gets sent to Ireland everyday. If there are tariffs then the cost goes up and it makes less sense for milk to be bought at that price, so the BBC has spoken to experts and if the amount of milk being sold is less it means there will be an excess of milk and cows producing that milk.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

And therein lies the real problem. Everyone still believes that whatever happens the government will sort of out.

The farmers believe that subsidies will be available. Industry believes that suspension of competition laws, grants, reduction in employment laws, free tax areas etc will sort it all out.

That and the fact that up until a few days ago Johnson claimed No Deal was a 1 in a million chance. If you are a small company, do you invest in additional workers for customs, buy new vans for delayed deliveries etc on that basis? No, you put your faith it everything you have been told.

The vast majority of people simply believe that it will all sort itself out.