Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

UK pull out of inter-railing scheme

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/british-train-operators-withdraw-from-interrail-programme-1.3980431

Another blow to the young people of England. I guess they will have to go to 'Europe' and start their journey from there.
That said, depending on what kind of Brexit there is, interrailing might be highly problematic for UK citizens anwyay RE: crossing borders etc.

downcow

Enzokk wrote: »

It was explained in the first 4 minutes of the video I linked. It is to do with the cost of milk and how much gets sent to Ireland everyday. If there are tariffs then the cost goes up and it makes less sense for milk to be bought at that price, so the BBC has spoken to experts and if the amount of milk being sold is less it means there will be an excess of milk and cows producing that milk.

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

Peregrinus

downcow wrote: »

. . . As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

I think you've answered your own question there, downcow. The fears of a cattle cull come from people who see no reason to be confident that the UK government will not let Ulster farming go down the swanny. The general recklessness and indifference to consequences which characterises Johnson's current approach to Brexit, coupled with the complete disdain and disregard for the wishes and interests of Northern Ireland throughout the entire Brexit project, right from the get-go, means that such a degree of confidence in the British government requires an extraordinary act of faith.

What measures, exactly, will HMG take to defend the NI dairy industry in the event of a no-deal Brexit and how, exactly, are those measures going to keep the industry viable? Without answers to these questions any confidence that the government will avoid the need to slaughter cattle looks misplaced. Hope that they will do something to avoid it might be as far as a rational person could go.

downcow

Leroy42 wrote: »

The vast majority of people simply believe that it will all sort itself out.

I can't disagree with this

Leroy42

Enzokk wrote: »

It was explained in the first 4 minutes of the video I linked. It is to do with the cost of milk and how much gets sent to Ireland everyday. If there are tariffs then the cost goes up and it makes less sense for milk to be bought at that price, so the BBC has spoken to experts and if the amount of milk being sold is less it means there will be an excess of milk and cows producing that milk.

But instead of addressing the, quite logical, idea that too much milk will lead to a cull of no longer necessary cattle, what we get is people denouncing 'experts' and project fear.

But it stands to reason. If 30% of the trad goes then there has to be cut backs. Why would Brexit be any different? No need to be an expert to work that one out.

But instead of people talking about the actual practical impact of No Deal, they divert the debate to talk about Project Fear, or EU issues.

volchitsa

downcow wrote: »

I can't disagree with this

I don't see much evidence that they are correct to believe it though. Do you?

downcow

Leroy42 wrote: »

But instead of addressing the, quite logical, idea that too much milk will lead to a cull of no longer necessary cattle, what we get if people denouncing 'experts' and project fear.

But it stands to reason. If 30% of the trad goes then there has to be cut backs. Why would Brexit be any different?

But instead of people talking about the actual practical impact of No Deal, they divert the debate to talk about Project Fear, or EU issues.

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

I don't know, as you post as well they don't reveal their sources on the show. It could be that they were being sensationalist and taking the word of one farmer who estimated this, or this was actually an off the record exchange where the same people denying the information now were relaying it to the journalists but because the official line from the government is different and they don't want to rock the boat officially and they have declined to be named.

Here is the first piece about the potential cull in a tweet, just popped up on my feed.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1159219396713181185?s=20

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

Can you link to that...I can't find anything on a search. Probably not showing up yet on google.

downcow

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can you link to that...I can't find anything on a search. Probably not showing up yet on google.

He speaks at length here and is very clear that in his view it is nonsense, scaremongering, etc (and hes a remainer)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_ulster

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

Who are these 'experts' and 'insiders' and why are they so secretive. The UFU this morning is saying it is pure scaremongering and they do not anticipate any cull (and the UFU are remainers)

Who says that their being secretive?
Ask anyone with a knowledge of dairy farming what will happen if they cannot sell their milk - the cows will reluctantly be sold/disposed of.
Farmers margins are too tight to keep the cows as pets.
However, remember that there will be a massive amount of animals disposed of. The meat factories don't want a huge amount cow-meat. So unless the good folk of the UK want tough cow meat, what do you think could end up happening to the carcasses?

LuckyLloyd

PeadarCo wrote: »

The point is a lot of people in the UK as so eloquently put by Karen Bradley don't understand and see the difference between SF DUP and any other NI and even Irish political party. Anecdotally I have had similar conversations with some people in the UK who don't fully understand Ireland is an independent country. Nevermind Northern Ireland. And the people with whom I have the conversations would not be hard Brexiters and not even overly interested in politics. However I acknowledge this is all completely anecdotal.

In terms of SF position. Everyone knows their position and its not going to change anytime soon. However it's a perfectly valid criticism to point out their constituencies don't have a voice in the House of Commons and the consequences. However this is something SF and the people who vote for them are aware of and have accepted. Anybody who doesn't agree with their stance is always going to point this out.

Those misperceptions definitely exist. We’re not dealing with the best, brightest and most internationalist when you consider the unthinking base upon which Brexit has preyed. Good decent hard working people no doubt, but insular - the emotional anti EU ‘everyone wave our union jacks together’ rhetoric couldn’t have worked if that wasn’t the case. And that makes it likely that any dramatic intervention from SF would be twisted and used to further Brexit extremism. Ultimately it’s a foreign parliament in England that needs to offer an English solution to an English problem.

From the Irish perspective we must resist any of these divide and conquer noises. Whether that be FF’s Brexit spokesperson looking to score cheap political points; the Sindo looking to stoke fears over the backstop; people looking to beat SF over the head once again on abstention: now is the time for us all to pull together and stand behind our government and the EU. And I say that as someone who has never provided FG a preference. This is much bigger than party politics. Let’s stand united as Irish people and push the responsibility and solution engineering to this crisis back where it belongs: on the Conservative government.

KildareP

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

No, because in a No Deal situation there will be no FTA and thus the UK will be trading on WTO terms. WTO Most Favoured Nation rules state that the EU cannot charge the UK one rate (or charge it 0%) whilst it continues to charge everyone else another rate.

To do so will:
(1) Breach WTO rules, or,
(2) Undermine the single market (by allowing tariff free access globally), or;
(3) Both of the above.

Enzokk

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Let's see, the problem is that milk will not be able to move over the border. The solution is to ensure the border doesn't become a problem and there is a solution to that on the table. You are asking why we in Ireland are looking at the root of the problem and trying to solve it there instead of trying to solve it here where it cannot be?

I agree the logical solution is to let the milk through, but unfortunately rules interferes with the logic and if you allow milk to go across the border you will need to allow all other food products and then you risk products coming in to the EU that doesn't meet the regulations of the single market.

So a simple solution to what seems a simple problem, but it is much more complex. As an analogy, it would be like saying the rules of the road says the speed limit is 60km/h. But if you have someone sick in the car and rush towards the hospital, should you be allowed to speed? If you hit a pedestrian because you are speeding there is no excuse for that as the road rules still apply, it is not suspended due to the circumstances. It is a crude analogy, but a simple solution leads to more complications down the road.

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.

I don't think there is a denial of job cuts in the Republic.
Thankfully we have used the last number of years to change our supply chains and processing routes. Whilst not all have changed, most have workable contingency plans.
Do you really think the likes of Diageo have not made alternative arrangements for the milk supply for Baileys?

downcow wrote: »

The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?

Whose logic is that?
If there is not regulatory alignment, then there is a problem in terms of allowing UK milk products into the EU.

downcow wrote: »

If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Why have they not built them in the last three years?

FrancieBrady

downcow wrote: »

He speaks at length here and is very clear that in his view it is nonsense, scaremongering, etc (and hes a remainer)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_ulster

In fairness, he is no wiser than the DEFRA guy on Newsnight, after 3 weeks, there is NO plan and he HOPES that the government will sort it out. Lots of milk for the Downing Street cat isn't going to cut it.

LuckyLloyd

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Why have they not built them in the last three years?

Because the UK is not ready for No Deal and is not going to be ready.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

But Ireland, through the EU does have concern and attempted to minimise any damage done by the UK decision to leave by negotiating the WA with the UK.

That is was rejected by the HoC would beg the question as to why the UK were not concerned. The answer to all the issues lies in the WA, but too many in the UK cannot countenance that the UK will not come out of BRexit better off and therefore be seen by many to be far less than what was promised.

So of course the other solution is to simply leave everything open. The problem with that is that Ireland loses it standards and its standing and whilst the loss of jobs is always negative, the loss of an entire industry would be far worse.

Shelga

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

Why should the EU fix your problem for you? It’s not the EU being belligerent, it’s us being totally fed up with the UK saying it wants a ‘WTO Brexit’ but expects the EU to break international trade laws to accommodate this.

Nody

KildareP wrote: »

No, because in a No Deal situation there will be no FTA and thus the UK will be trading on WTO terms. WTO Most Favoured Nation rules state that the EU cannot charge the UK one rate (or charge it 0%) whilst it continues to charge everyone else another rate.

To do so will:
(1) Breach WTO rules, or,
(2) Undermine the single market (by allowing tariff free access globally), or;
(3) Both of the above.

For funzies here's the relevant rates btw; non concentrated milk is 14% (Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter.).

[12.9 EUR/100 kg] [13.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of <= 1%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[17.9 EUR/100 kg] [22.7 EUR/100 kg] [21.8 EUR/100 kg] [18.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 1% but <= 6%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 6% but <= 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[182.8 EUR/100 kg] [110 EUR/100 kg] [109.1 EUR/100 kg] [56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] [183.7 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
That's charged day 1 on a hard brexit but more importantly since UK is not recognized as an competent country for control (takes 6 months minimum as per EU law) all milk has to go through full controls without exceptions so that milk is not moving anywhere anytime soon. To put the above in perspective I know a company that drives cream from Norway to Spain to produce a certain product and then drive the product back up again to be able to offset the Norwegian tariffs and they charge similar enough to EU. That's how much of a difference they make...

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

I can't disagree with this

It didn't get sorted out before the 29th March.

Why should it get sorted now?

boggerman1

Have no sympathy for the dairy farmer in the north that voted for brexit.they knew the conquences given how much milk is processed down here.their system of milk production up there is mostly indoor all year round versus down here where we are grazed grass production(dairy farmer myself).at the end of the day they won't have processing facilities ready and even earlier on this yr there wasn't capacity to process milk on the mainland.farmers up north could be looking at 10-15 cents a liter for milk after November.

FrancieBrady

boggerman1 wrote: »

Have no sympathy for the dairy farmer in the north that voted for brexit.they knew the conquences given how much milk is processed down here.their system of milk production up there is mostly indoor all year round versus down here where we are grazed grass production(dairy farmer myself).at the end of the day they won't have processing facilities ready and even earlier on this yr there wasn't capacity to process milk on the mainland.farmers up north could be looking at 10-15 cents a liter for milk after November.

What's the capacity for southern farmers to replace the northern milk in part or full?

Russman

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

But with this you're essentially advocating "side deals" and/or "mini deals" that have been explicitly ruled out AFAIK by the EU. It amounts to more cherry picking really. Yes, the southern plants will take a hit unfortunately, but that's part of the (relatively small in the bigger picture) price the EU is going to pay for Brexit. The benefits of being part of a very large trading block still vastly outweigh the downsides.

Imreoir2

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
If this doesn't happen then Northern farmers will suffer until processing plants can be built in the North (remember the processed milk ends up back in the UK along with lots of processed southern milk). Unfortunately there will be long term pain for both southern dairy farmers and milk processors if the EU takes an illogical approach and stops the milk crossing

No. In the event of No-Deal, there will be no-deal. There will be no such arangement in place. The trade will stop, and people will lose their jobs. That is why our government have constantly been warning of economic hardship ahead and the growing threat of no-deal Brexit. No one south of the border is pretending that it will all be grand, it won't be.

You can call the EU illogical all you want, but the integrity of the single market is of vital importance to Ireland and the EU. Doing side deals to make Brexit nice and easy for the UK while the integrity of the single market is undermined is not going to happen. If your government decides to leave with no-deal, don't expect the EU to save you from yourselves.

First Up

Imreoir2 wrote:

You can call the EU illogical all you want, but the integrity of the single market is of vital importance to Ireland and the EU. Doing side deals to make Brexit nice and easy for the UK while the integrity of the single market is undermined is not going to happen. If your government decides to leave with no-deal, don't expect the EU to save you from yourselves.

Its not inconveivable that a "bonded" system could be devised whereby milk or other products come south for processing and then return north. It would need to be designed and carefully monitored and would likely be restricted to licensed and approved traders/processors.

That is possible but no northern milk or anything else will stay in the south without meeting EU/SM requirements and procedures.

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

Its not inconveivable that a "bonded" system could be devised whereby milk or other products come south for processing and then return north. It would need to be designed and carefully monitored and would likely be restricted to licensed and approved traders/processors.

That is possible but no northern milk or anything else will stay in the south without meeting EU/SM requirements and procedures.

Is that not a side deal - the kind of deal that is an anathema to the EU's negotiating strategy?

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

What puzzles me is that southerners are focusing on the wellbeing of dairy farmers in the North, with no concern for the workers in the south who process this 30% of northern milk.
The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement that the milk will go south and protect both the northern farmers and the southern workers - Is that not logical?
.. ...

Logic?
You are talking about logic as if it it matters? Logic isn't compatible with "believe".
There is no logic in any of this! Logic left the building the minute the uk politicians stood in front of the cameras and told their voting public that nobody was talking about leaving the single market. Or that it would be the easiest and fastest FTA ever.
You expect these politicians to start using logic now?
Or you expect the EU to try and solve a problem of the UK's own making for them.

ancapailldorcha

Downcow has been banned and therefore will not be responding.

Larbre34

On the 1st November I foresee dairy farmers and agri processors of all types carrying on delivering the produce back and forth across the border and that'll be a real quandry for authorities on both sides. They'll have to block all 300 odd crossing points to prevent it and I pity the man that tries in all honesty.

The people and the natural, established market will dictate. How the powers that be on all sides respond to that, I don't know.