Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut

downcow wrote: »

The logic is that EU and UK will reach an agreement

Is that the logic???

So there will be a deal.

There won’t be a no deal so.

Great!

ISOP

20silkcut wrote: »

Is that the logic???

So there will be a deal.

There won’t be a no deal so.

Great!

There'll be no deal, but they want small deals...other deals... :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

Larbre34 wrote: »

On the 1st November I foresee dairy farmers and agri processors of all types carrying on delivering the produce back and forth across the border and that'll be a real quandry for authorities on both sides. They'll have to block all 300 odd crossing points to prevent it and I pity the man that tries in all honesty.

The people and the natural, established market will dictate. How the powers that be on all sides respond to that, I don't know.

If southern processors break EU single market rules then they are signing their own death warrants.
Can't see that happening tbh.

MrMusician18

See

downcow wrote: »

Find this very strange wishful thinking analysis of these two interviews (tbh I thought the were both crap interviewees)

The sainsbury CEO was even accused by interviewer of not even believing or acting on his own project fear. He was talking in riddles, that made no sense.

As for the 45,000 cow cull. Where did this info come from. The Ulster Farmers Union head (who is a strong reamianer) has said this morning that it makes no sense and is only scaremongering. He said he is confident the UK goverment will not let ulster farming go down the swanny

Far worse for all dairy farmers is not the actual cull but what a cull signifies. NI will be awash with milk, even a 1 to 2% oversupply can have serious negative pressure on price never mind a 20-30% oversupply. The local milk market will totally crash.

Hard to feel sorry for those that voted leave in NI, when many were simply motivated by the other uns backed remain. If they're own sectarianism puts them out of business, so be it.

reslfj

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK pull out of inter-railing scheme

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/british-train-operators-withdraw-from-interrail-programme-1.3980431

That said, depending on what kind of Brexit there is, interrailing might be highly problematic for UK citizens anwyay RE: crossing borders etc.

Why should travelling around continental Europe be problematic. Brexit do not change the rules for entering Schengen for 90 days using your valid UK passport, nor is there any plans - AFAIK - of changing the rules for entering non Schengen countries for typically 90 days

Freedom of Movement for people has nothing to do with crossing borders as a traveller . The word 'Move' doesn't relate to travelling but relates to "move to a new address" and "move to a new job" without any restriction as far as (EU/EEA/Switzerland) country is concerned.

Lars

PS! Irish Inter-rail users will likely have to find a Ryanair flight to and from a continental train station.

20silkcut

ISOP wrote: »

There'll be no deal, but they want small deals...other deals... :rolleyes:

That makes no sense they are going to achieve a no deal brexit by having lots of deals.
I suppose typical brexiteer logic.
Can’t see that cherry picking getting past the EU.

Nody

20silkcut wrote: »

That makes no sense they are going to achieve a no deal brexit by having lots of deals.
I suppose typical brexiteer logic.
Can’t see that cherry picking getting past the EU.

That has been most Brexiteers stance for a while now; basically the story goes like this:
1) Reject the WA because it's clearly not good enough
2) EU shivering in their boots desperate for any deal will cut a series of micro deals on a per issue basis
3) Due to EU being caught so flat handed and afraid of the crash out suddenly UK will get all the advantages they want and can only cut the deals they want ignoring anything that they don't want
4) UK's plucky WW2 spirit has succeeded!

No, I'm not joking that's their actual idea on how things will play out if you see them get pushed on the matter.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If southern processors break EU single market rules then they are signing their own death warrants.
Can't see that happening tbh.

Yeah the quickest enforcement will be from the processors and their trucking companies not collecting or refusing deliveries.
Truckers aren't going to collect loads they aren't being paid for, processors aren't going to accept deliveries that could cost them their operation.

Some animals might pass over or back for slaughter but the organisation and logistics are different.

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote:

Is that not a side deal - the kind of deal that is an anathema to the EU's negotiating strategy?

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

Yes but implicit in bonding is that nothing happens to the product.
If milk is to be processed it stops being bonded and is more like the free ports proposed by Johnson.
I can't see this state bending over backwards to deliver this and in any case not in 80 odd days. The milk can't wait till we are ready.

On the free ports: I can't see how Johnson can reconcile creating separate zones where the taxes and possibly the rules are different but won't tolerate turning Northern Ireland into a zone where the taxes and rules are different.

reslfj

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What's the capacity for southern farmers to replace the northern milk in part or full?

Milk also flow from Ireland to NI and back.

https://www.thedetail.tv/articles/from-grass-to-glass-the-journey-of-milk

Some of this milk might be replaced by milk from cows in NI, and the milk now coming from the RoI farmers might be driven to a dairy in the South.
Likely very costly in a often low-profit environment.

The UK has announced 0% tariffs for most milk products from 3. countries.
This may well have very unpleasant consequences for UK farming

The EU27 most surely will not change its MFN tariffs in any Brexit context.

Lars

Nody

First Up wrote: »

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

The problem here is first of all it's mainly used for vehicles or other expensive equipment not left behind, secondly you are not exporting out the same product you imported which means different WTO tariffs apply as you're suppose to export the same item. However most importantly:

Consumable items such as agricultural products, explosives, disposables and postal traffic cannot travel under an ATA Carnet.

Sam Russell

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah the quickest enforcement will be from the processors and their trucking companies not collecting or refusing deliveries.
Truckers aren't going to collect loads they aren't being paid for, processors aren't going to accept deliveries that could cost them their operation.

Some animals might pass over or back for slaughter but the organisation and logistics are different.

If I was a NI dairy farmer, I would move 50% of my herd south now, and look to move the other 50% nearer the end of October.

Imagine the farmer who produces 5,000 litres of milk a day and has a 12,000 litre tank to hold his milk. He gets a phone call from the dairy in Monaghan that they will cease collections on 30th October, and he will not be paid for any milk after that date.

What can he do?

He cannot store it, nor can he drink it.

If he was the only farmer affected, then he might find a sale for it in NI, or GB, but he is not alone. If he still has the cows in the north, then he has a real problem because they cannot go south after the 31st of October, so the price in NI will drop by at least 30%.

So what does he do?

Moving isn't particularly easy either.
You need land and/or sheds to accommodate them.
You need a milking parlour and the associated bits and pieces.

They are stuck.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

If I was a NI dairy farmer, I would move 50% of my herd south now, and look to move the other 50% nearer the end of October.

Imagine the farmer who produces 5,000 litres of milk a day and has a 12,000 litre tank to hold his milk. He gets a phone call from the dairy in Monaghan that they will cease collections on 30th October, and he will not be paid for any milk after that date.

What can he do?

He cannot store it, nor can he drink it.

If he was the only farmer affected, then he might find a sale for it in NI, or GB, but he is not alone. If he still has the cows in the north, then he has a real problem because they cannot go south after the 31st of October, so the price in NI will drop by at least 30%.

So what does he do?

Ok, load up you cattle in a trailer, drive south of the border, and then what? What does Farmer Billy Ulsterman do with his cattle once he has gotten them over the border?

reslfj

Nody wrote: »

That has been most Brexiteers stance for a while now; basically the story goes like this:
1) Reject the WA because it's clearly not good enough
2) EU shivering in their boots desperate for any deal will cut a series of micro deals on a per issue basis
3) Due to EU being caught so flat handed and afraid of the crash out suddenly UK will get all the advantages they want and can only cut the deals they want ignoring anything that they don't want
4) UK's plucky WW2 spirit has succeeded!

No, I'm not joking that's their actual idea on how things will play out if you see them get pushed on the matter.

The EU27 do dislike all of Brexit and the resulting division in Europe.

But the EU27 has never been afraid of the costs of any form Brexit, as they can easily afford any Brexit. The EU27 is a 5-6 times larger economy, has its fully working SM, around 60 world class FTAs and new FTSs coming online as I write.

https://twitter.com/LarsFJ1/status/1062127976391815168?s=20

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/88890.html

Q2563 Chair (Hilary Benn) : One very final quick question from me: Michel, you said if there is no deal there will be no further discussions between us. Can I just check that does not mean that if we are trying to sort out in the event of no deal—aviation, medicines, driving licences—that there would be no discussion because, if you read the papers that Dominic Raab has published about preparing for no deal, as you will have noticed a lot of it assumes that there would be co-operation between us to sort out matters, so I think it would be quite helpful to the Committee to be clear what exactly you meant when you said, “In the event of no deal there will be no further discussions”. Does that exclude all discussions, including on what on earth do we do about planes?

Michel Barnier (Translation): Hilary, we want to settle all these matters in agreement. That is why we are negotiating. Now if there is a no deal there is no more discussion. There is no more negotiation. It is over and each side will take its own unilateral contingency measures, and we will take them in such areas as aviation, but this does not mean mini-deals in the case of a no deal. We want a deal. We want an overall agreement; otherwise each will take their own contingency measures on their own side. That is why I want an agreement. I know full well, the worst scenario is indeed the no-deal scenario.

Sam Russell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Ok, load up you cattle in a trailer, drive south of the border, and then what? What does Farmer Billy Ulsterman do with his cattle once he has gotten them over the border?

Sell them. What else?

Take them to the nearest mart, or a mart a long way away - whichever gets the best price.

20silkcut

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sell them. What else?

Take them to the nearest mart, or a mart a long way away - whichever gets the best price.

They would sell fairly well down south.
The market for dairy cows is still fairly strong. A ready to go dairy cow that can be milked straight away and is used to the parlour etc is a valuable commodity.
No need to cull such animals.

First Up

Deleted User wrote:

Yes but implicit in bonding is that nothing happens to the product. If milk is to be processed it stops being bonded and is more like the free ports proposed by Johnson. I can't see this state bending over backwards to deliver this and in any case not in 80 odd days. The milk can't wait till we are ready.

True, but a processing free zone could be created and would not breach SM rules if the products are re-exported.

The EU is familiar with how local trade works on its external borders. The Balkan countries were once all part of Yugoslavia and Croatia and Slovenia (in EU) still retain close ties with Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. Romania (in EU) still has close links with Moldova (former Soviet Union.)

Of course that won't apply in every case on the Irish border and some commercial supply chains will have to stop. But there are ways to protect the integrity of the SM while also faciitating daily life on the ground.

Sam Russell

20silkcut wrote: »

They would sell fairly well down south.
The market for dairy cows is still fairly strong. A ready to go dairy cow that can be milked straight away and is used to the parlour etc is a valuable commodity.
No need to cull such animals.

Unless they miss the Oct 31st deadline.

So mooove now.

trellheim

He has to sell them or buy a farm or somewhere to keep them and register them all as ROI animals.


Switching topics - heres the No-deal bookies odds https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/brexit/no-deal-brexit


massive assumption by the bookies that a no-deal will be avoided

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

If I was a NI dairy farmer, I would move 50% of my herd south now, and look to move the other 50% nearer the end of October.

So what does he do?

A modern milk farm is much more than the cows - it's huge investments in buildings, automatic milking and refrigeration machines. It's not just one farm - it's many when talking about 30% of NI milk.

Can't be moved by Oct 31 - 2019 and not even by 2022. Likely such a move can't be financed either.

Lars

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If southern processors break EU single market rules then they are signing their own death warrants.
Can't see that happening tbh.

It's a mistaken belief among the hard Brexiteers that the way to avoid the utter chaos of No Deal is simply to abandon the rules of the Single Market and apply no checks at the borders. That might work for a pirate state like the UK which intends going rogue, but it would completely destabilise the EU.

murphaph

First Up wrote: »

No, bonded goods move between countries all the time. There is a documented procedure (called a Carnet du Passage) that allows sealed goods to be shipped into and back out of countries.

The bonding idea just won't work for milk. It's about phytosanitary control as well as tariffs. The southern creamery would not be allowed to "contaminate" EU milk products with milk from outside the EU that had not been through a BIP and cleared. No NI milk will be approved to enter the EU on the 1st of November.

Remember, the UK was a driving force in creating the single market and upholding its integrity. It is not something being imposed upon it now.

Quin_Dub

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes but implicit in bonding is that nothing happens to the product.
If milk is to be processed it stops being bonded and is more like the free ports proposed by Johnson.
I can't see this state bending over backwards to deliver this and in any case not in 80 odd days. The milk can't wait till we are ready.

On the free ports: I can't see how Johnson can reconcile creating separate zones where the taxes and possibly the rules are different but won't tolerate turning Northern Ireland into a zone where the taxes and rules are different.

Because it will be under UK rules and not EU rules or something - Taking back control remember!!!

First Up

Strazdas wrote:

That might work for a pirate state like the UK which intends going rogue, but it would completely destabilise the EU.

Completely? I think not.

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

True, but a processing free zone could be created and would not breach SM rules if the products are re-exported.

The key point here is the need for a UK-EU27 deal. Without the WA there will be no new deals in any area where the rules are now part of the EU membership.

First Up wrote: »

The EU is familiar with how local trade works on its external borders. The Balkan countries were once all part of Yugoslavia and Croatia and Slovenia (in EU) still retain close ties with Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia. Romania (in EU) still has close links with Moldova (former Soviet Union.)

These countries all have agreements with the EU and these are used in trade relations.
Without a deal there is nothing not covered by old pre-EEC agreements that wil be allowed to happen.

First Up wrote: »

Of course that won't apply in every case on the Irish border and some commercial supply chains will have to stop. But there are ways to protect the integrity of the SM while also facilitating daily life on the ground.

The WA and the backstop is one very direct way. So is a revoke of A50.

But 'ways' require negotiations and deals. Just will not happen without the WA ratified.

Remember the EU27 will protect Ireland and the GFA. But the decisions are taken by all 27 member states and the overall focus is on a firm protection of the the integrity of the EU and in particular of the internal market (SM).

boggerman1

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sell them. What else?

Take them to the nearest mart, or a mart a long way away - whichever gets the best price.

How can he sell them down in the republic when the Brits crash out in a no deal unicorn fantasy.no checks on origin of said cows,paperwork,herd number needed down south.them animals worthless down here.
To the non farming people here as it stands them cows are worth a lot thanks to breeding,milk production figures,etc.but if a glut of them were to appear on the market in basically fire sales the value of them would be nothing.the only thing for them will be a cull of big numbers.but hey brexit is all positive no downsides.

murphaph

boggerman1 wrote: »

How can he sell them down in the republic when the Brits crash out in a no deal unicorn fantasy.no checks on origin of said cows,paperwork,herd number needed down south.them animals worthless down here.
To the non farming people here as it stands them cows are worth a lot thanks to breeding,milk production figures,etc.but if a glut of them were to appear on the market in basically fire sales the value of them would be nothing.the only thing for them will be a cull of big numbers.but hey brexit is all positive no downsides.

Could the south actually absorb the entire NI herd? Is there the room/facilities for all those cows?

If we are really heading towards no deal then I'd expect a lot of NI cows to move south before the deadline but I imagine some NI farmers would hold out in the hopes of supplying what limited creameries there are in NI or in the hopes of selling their herd to farms in GB (assuming GB creameries could handle the extra milk).

First Up

reslfj wrote:

Remember the EU27 will protect Ireland and the GFA. But the decisions are taken by all 27 member states and the overall focus is on a firm protection of the the integrity of the EU and in particular of the internal market (SM).

I'm well aware of that. The Irish border is being presented by some as an all or nothing deal breaker. It does not have to be and I've given examples of where the EU is able to make local arrangements that don't clash with the integrity of theu SM.