Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

boggerman1 wrote: »

How can he sell them down in the republic when the Brits crash out in a no deal unicorn fantasy.no checks on origin of said cows,paperwork,herd number needed down south.them animals worthless down here.
To the non farming people here as it stands them cows are worth a lot thanks to breeding,milk production figures,etc.but if a glut of them were to appear on the market in basically fire sales the value of them would be nothing.the only thing for them will be a cull of big numbers.but hey brexit is all positive no downsides.

That is why I said they must moooove now. If they wait, the prices will drop, and if they wait till 31st October, they will not be able to sell them south of the border at all.

NO deal is very bad for NI farmers. The agriculture market is too integrated NS.

If there is a no deal, then no Irish - dairy, abattoir, mart, meat factory will touch NI produce. There is too much to lose. It will be like the F&M crisis, but without the border surveillance. Remember, we have tracing of livestock.

Currently NI supplies much of the liquid milk sold here, that will be a problem. Not sure how we cope with that, unless we buy up the cows before Oct 31st.

Strazdas

First Up wrote: »

Completely? I think not.

It would be very problematic. The EU and Single Market are strictly rules based and especially at all its external borders. A situation where a country of 65m people on its doorstep wasn't enforcing SM rules and sending goods backwards and forward without any checks would be chaotic.

Quin_Dub

Very interesting article from HuffPost about why some people want a no-deal brexit.


Basically , they just asked on twitter for "ordinary people" that supported a no-deal brexit to reply to them with why

“No-deal gets us out completely – any agreement will involve EU strategies to stymie our opportunities to trade with the rest of the world because they know our culture is as a free trading nation, not protectionist, and this will work to their detriment.”

“It Would Forced The Government To Invest In Young People’s Skills So They Can Fill Jobs”

“There’s no such thing as a no deal. On November 1 we will no longer be a member of the EU, but Great Britain and the EU will put in place arrangements to deal with the consequences.

“There will be some unforeseen consequences which they will then have to cater for. All of those arrangements will form an ongoing deal.”

The comments to the article are mostly from Remainers , but are interesting none the less

Strazdas

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting article from HuffPost about why some people want a no-deal brexit.


Basically , they just asked on twitter for "ordinary people" that supported a no-deal brexit to reply to them with why

The comments to the article are mostly from Remainers , but are interesting none the less


“No-deal gets us out completely – any agreement will involve EU strategies to stymie our opportunities to trade with the rest of the world because they know our culture is as a free trading nation, not protectionist, and this will work to their detriment.”

This one is nonsensical. The UK's trade with the EU is worth hundreds of billions of pounds every year. Smashing up all of these trading arrangements in order to "free up" trading opportunities elsewhere is cretinous stuff. You may as well be asking an 11 year old in primary school on their thoughts about how the UK should trade.

Water John

Yes, there are EU special arrangements for areas. An area/region of Switzerland in treated as part to Germany TMK. A special arrangement was offered by the EU for NI too but the DUP blocked it. Why should there be deals done after Nov 1st to help the UK solve its problems?

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

I'm well aware of that. The Irish border is being presented by some as an all or nothing deal breaker. It does not have to be and ...

The EU27 will not change the backstop - never - as in if and until a UI is taking over.

The EU will not give examples that can later be twisted and misused in other unrelated EU negotiations. Look how Greenland (arctic with ppl 50.000 and part of the Kingdom of Denmark) or Liechtenstein (area 62 sq.mi, ppl 38.000, no FoM rights to perm. stay) were misused in the Brexit debate.

It or, I think more likely, the border in the Irish Sea version of the backstop will in fact be the permanent solution for a very long future period.

No alternative proposals seem to 'fly' - except of course a revoke of A50

Lars

serfboard

Strazdas wrote: »

You may as well be asking an 11 year old in primary school on their thoughts about how the UK should trade.

The problem is that trade, like Healthcare, is extraordinarily complicated ("nobody knew that health care could be so complicated") and cannot be summed up in a soundbite, and most people (probably myself included) have a roughly 11-year old's understanding of how trade really works.

Strazdas

serfboard wrote: »

The problem is that trade, like Healthcare, is extraordinarily complicated ("nobody knew that health care could be so complicated") and cannot be summed up in a soundbite, and most people (probably myself included) have a roughly 11-year old's understanding of how trade really works.

That referendum should never have been held. The lack of knowledge of the people who voted in it was off the scale.

seraphimvc

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Very interesting article from HuffPost about why some people want a no-deal brexit.


Basically , they just asked on twitter for "ordinary people" that supported a no-deal brexit to reply to them with why


The comments to the article are mostly from Remainers , but are interesting none the less

I honestly jaw dropped when i read the articles. The people who commented in it are 50-75yo people from different parts of England - it sounds like they have absolutely no attachment to the reality as if this is 19th century where england could do whatever they wanted to everyone (ie rules dont apply to them).

Seriously is it really hard to understand if you need X, you need to give/trade something you have for X, and that trading process is regulated ie there are rules involved for both parties in any trades.

The way these remainers put it, is like brexit is supposed to be easier than divorce lol.

First Up

Strazdas wrote:

It would be very problematic. The EU and Single Market are strictly rules based and especially at all its external borders. A situation where a country of 65m people on its doorstep wasn't enforcing SM rules and sending goods backwards and forward without any checks would be chaotic.

It won't be. Whatever virtual checks are used on goods crossing the border, they will be re-enforced at Irish ports for goods going to the continent. These arrangements are in place or well on the way.

The Irish border will not be a backdoor to the EU.

reslfj

Water John wrote: »

Yes, there are EU special arrangements for areas. An area/region of Switzerland in treated as part to Germany TMK. A special arrangement was offered by the EU for NI too but the DUP blocked it. Why should there be deals done after Nov 1st to help the UK solve its problems?

This area within Switzerland are German and has been German from 1805 and before that Austrian way back. There is a treaty about its status including it being part of a Swiss only CU.

The entire population is just under 1500.

This 400+ years special legacy status is no argument for anything in NI or Ireland.

Lars

jm08

Sam Russell wrote: »

Currently NI supplies much of the liquid milk sold here, that will be a problem. Not sure how we cope with that, unless we buy up the cows before Oct 31st.

Make less cheddar cheese! The dairy farmers in the south are going to have to stop drying off cows in the winter months (which is when most of NI's exports to the south take place).

First Up

reslfj wrote:

This 400+ years special legacy status is no argument for anything in NI or Ireland.

It demonstrates how arrangements can be made to deal with exceptional situations.

BonnieSituation

First Up wrote: »

It demonstrates how arrangements can be made to deal with exceptional situations.

Which is what the backstop is.

54and56

Excellent Article on Raab's visit to Canada and how he's being politely received and allowed to bang the drum for closer ties post Brexit etc but in reality Canada are not progressing a FTA with the UK as they can't see why they should when the likeyhood is in a no deal Brexit the UK will lower tariffs anyway. Why pay for something now (a FTA) which you will effectively get FOC without having to reciprocate in just a few weeks time?

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/canadas-brexit-talks-with-the-u-k-there-are-none/

First Up

BonnieSituation wrote:

Which is what the backstop is.

The backstop is intended as a temporary arrangement while the permanent arrangements are put in place.

BluePlanet

The UK food industry has requested that it be granted a waiver from certain provisions of competition law in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Producers and distributors, including major supermarkets, are reported to have “repeatedly” asked the Government for a reprieve from rules which prevent collaborating on supply or pricing plans, in order to allow coordination across the industry to prevent food shortages in a no-deal Brexit scenario.

While rare, sector-specific waivers have been approved before, when necessary. It is not yet clear whether the Government will approve the food industry’s request.

https://www.preiskel.com/food-industry-seeks-competition-law-waiver-for-no-deal-brexit/

Waiver for competition law, hmm now how might that go wrong..
Sounds like a major price-fixing cartel on the cards.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

The backstop is intended as a temporary arrangement while the permanent arrangements are put in place.

There is never going to be another arrangement as long as the UK want to negotiate separate trade deals and stay out of the CU and SM. The only possible permanent solution is a border in the Irish Sea. I suspect that Johnson actually knows this and is intending to try and get a majority so he can jettison the DUP.

RobAMerc

https://www.preiskel.com/food-industry-seeks-competition-law-waiver-for-no-deal-brexit/

Had people half a brain this would be ringing alarm bells - this is the start of a very slippery slope.

Next we'll have the "War Brexit Measures Act" allowing the UK government to throw all Trading and Quality Standards followed by human rights out the window ! "Just like we did in the war!", ( "which we won in case you didnt know! )

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

There is never going to be another arrangement as long as the UK want to negotiate separate trade deals and stay out of the CU and SM. The only possible permanent solution is a border in the Irish Sea. I suspect that Johnson actually knows this and is intending to try and get a majority so he can jettison the DUP.

An Irish Sea border is the simplest to operate but we'll see if it can be achieved politically.

Failing that, and assuming the commitment to an infrastructure free border is upheld, then other mechanisms will be needed. Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements but I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements. If they can be designed to work somewhere like the Balkans, they can handle South Armagh.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

An Irish Sea border is the simplest to operate but we'll see if it can be achieved politically.

Failing that, and assuming the commitment to an infrastructure free border is upheld, then other mechanisms will be needed. Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements but I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements. If they can be designed to work somewhere like the Balkans, they can handle South Armagh.

I don't believe there's enough time left to come up with a solution like that. The Balkans is different because the accession process gave enough time to work out the details. Years really. We don't have years. And the Balkans didn't have the problem of trying to implement a solution without a hard border.

Nody

First Up wrote: »

An Irish Sea border is the simplest to operate but we'll see if it can be achieved politically.

Failing that, and assuming the commitment to an infrastructure free border is upheld, then other mechanisms will be needed. Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements but I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements. If they can be designed to work somewhere like the Balkans, they can handle South Armagh.

And how do you propose that to be done? What's to stop me from buying a container of chlorinated chicken in NI, drive it over the open border you envision, rebrand it and sell it on in EU? No truck checks allowed for EU bound traffic as it's against the single market regulation. Or heck let's go wild; what's to stop me from buying a truck full of tobacco, reclaim the duty in UK and then sell it on in EU duty free on the black market for a sweet million odd in profit? There WILL be controls at the Irish border and because the "no border controls" was dependent on the WA and UK being compliant to the GFA. If UK goes rouge (no deal) the business in NI is not going to rank high on the things EU will give a damn about to fix; they will be allowed to suffer and the Irish government will support it because the single market for Ireland is way more important. If they want to bitch about that then are welcome to go to their government who put them in that fix in the first place.

KildareP

Nody wrote: »

And how do you propose that to be done? What's to stop me from buying a container of chlorinated chicken in NI, drive it over the open border you envision, rebrand it and sell it on in EU? No truck checks allowed for EU bound traffic as it's against the single market regulation. Or heck let's go wild; what's to stop me from buying a truck full of tobacco, reclaim the duty in UK and then sell it on in EU duty free on the black market for a sweet million odd in profit? There WILL be controls at the Irish border and because the "no border controls" was dependent on the WA and UK being compliant to the GFA. If UK goes rouge (no deal) the business in NI is not going to rank high on the things EU will give a damn about to fix; they will be allowed to suffer and the Irish government will support it because the single market for Ireland is way more important. If they want to bitch about that then are welcome to go to their government who put them in that fix in the first place.

Here's an example demonstrating exactly that using an IKEA bed
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/what-an-ikea-bed-tells-us-about-boris-johnson-s-brexit-plan-1.3946883

BonnieSituation

First Up wrote: »

The backstop is intended as a temporary arrangement while the permanent arrangements are put in place.

Firstly it's an arrangement because of exceptional circumstances.

Secondly, it's in place in case permanent arrangements AREN'T in place at the end of the 2 year transition period after the UK finally leaves the EU with a deal.

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

It demonstrates how arrangements can be made to deal with exceptional situations.

The EU will not make any new special arrangements unless there is absolutely no other way. And even then they will often choose not making any arrangement at all.

The EU27 has e.g. very explicitly said, that the Swiss 100+ deals arrangement will never happen again.

If not for other reasons it is very expensive to have and maintain every separate agreement. The number of special cases and bilateral deals must be kept to the absolute minimum.

Besides the WA is over and done. If the UK can't understand that and does not ratify there will be a 'No Deal' Brexit on November 1.

Lars

Imreoir2

First Up wrote: »

I wouldn't rule out local cross border arrangements.

Who is to make these arangements? Ireland will not make arangements that compromise the rules of the single market, and the EU will not make arangements with the UK that allow for the rules of the single market to apply to the UK in part or in whole for any kind of facilitation, be it local, logical, simple or otherwise. There wont be any mini-deals, or arangements, or facilitations. There will be unilateral measures on the UK side, and unilateral measures on the EU side. Anything that is not in the power of one side or the other to sort out by themselves will remain unsorted and the problems this causes are the consequences we are facing in November if it ends in No-Deal.

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

... Of course nothing will get on a ferry to the continent unless it complies with SM requirements.

The SM will have no checks between EU countries. Any check is expensive. It's a fundamental core idea of the SM - internal market - that all goods are legal and fully compliant everywhere throughout.

If some goods are compliant (and legal) in Ireland nothing can and nobody should attempt to prevent sending these goods to anywhere within the EU for just the transportation costs (or to CH/EEA if customs is cleared and tariffs paid).

Lars

BluePlanet

Britain's membership of the Interrail and EU train travel schemes will continue - just 24 hours after it was announced the UK would leave the project.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-08/decision-to-end-britains-interrail-membership-reversed/

The article doesn't delve into the reasons for the U-Turn.
I would expect Leavers to try and make hay from this (if Britain is actually going to get a better deal out of this).

BluePlanet

Liz Truss just tweeted a picture of the UK trade talks delegation meeting their US counter parts.
A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.

One side looks like seasoned, emotionless professionals, the other like naive kids.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1159218950376435712?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Kermit.de.frog

BluePlanet wrote: »

Liz Truss just tweeted a picture of the UK trade talks delegation meeting their US counter parts.
A picture is worth a thousand words as they say.

One side looks like seasoned, emotionless professionals, the other like naive kids.

https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1159218950376435712?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

And here is an excellent example of the complete DELUSION summed up in the first reply

https://twitter.com/clv101/status/1159233467286269952

:rolleyes:

Be funny if it wasn't so serious. They are going to be hung, drawn and quartered.