Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

BluePlanet wrote: »

Leo should have turned BoJo's words against him.

When BoJo says 'the anti-democratic backstop', Leo should pose the suggestion: 'So let us find a method to democratize it'.

For a NI-only backstop it should have been suggested to put it to referendum to the people of NI.
Could also give some level of competence to the North/South Ministerial Council.
All wrapped up in nice flowery language about the GFA etc.

Opportunity missed.

No. Leo's done the right thing. The Brexit dream-turned-nightmare needs to die on its own. Any interference, real or imagined from outside players will only legitimise it in the eyes of the true believers.

You don't attack the enemy when they're cannibalising themselves.

Nody

20silkcut wrote: »

Can anyone predict a timeline of when brexit will just cease to be an issue?

21st March 2053

Seriously though we're talking decades. Deals announced, politicians looking to score points, rejoining campaigns to bloom up multiple times (or leave), historical analysis, possible regions breaking away and the celebrations of that etc. It will be around in one way or the other for a very very long time.

trellheim

Mark Francois embarassing himself https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1159464448165388288

BonnieSituation

trellheim wrote: »

Mark Francois embarassing himself https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1159464448165388288

The colour he goes is definitely my favourite part of Brexit so far. Today.

He really needs to be put out to pasture. He hasn't a notion.

maebee

Wise words from Irish actor Cillian Murphy: -

Cillian Murphy has said Ireland cannot be held 'to ransom' over Brexit.

The Peaky Blinders star, who moved home to Ireland from the UK in 2015, said he is happy to be living in Dublin on a "very liberal island that is an outlier."

Speaking to The Guardian about Brexit, he added, "The Good Friday Agreement was predicated on there not being a border and to think you can hold Ireland to ransom, you can't..."

The Cork actor continued, "Listen, if you and I are in a club and there are 28 members of the club and I decided to leave, why would I get preferential treatment? Doesn't make any sense."

"And if Ireland is a member of that club and me leaving undermines their whole set-up and the peace they have, it doesn't make any sense, and it's not equitable or fair and it's because the whole thing was sold on a bunch of misinformation."

Murphy further described Brexit as a "binary choice" with "no nuance" regarding the referendum.

He hits the nail on the head in wondering why the member departing the club should be given preferential treatment.

https://www.independent.ie/entertainment/television/tv-news/cillian-murphy-says-ireland-cannot-be-held-to-ransom-over-brexit-38386167.html

reslfj

First Up wrote: »

You underestimate the pragmatism that keeps the EU on track. Frontex oversees the EU's external borders and has dealt with many thorny and sensitive issues (including criminal activity) in many difficult places.

The Irish issue will be handled pragmatically and the fact that we are an island actually simplifies matters as it provides choke points under EU administration.

The Irish border and GFA related stuff is unique. It will get a customised solution. Rest assured of that.

In your dreams. :D:D

Without the WA ratified absolutely everything is about forcing the UK to accept every word of the WA text - except the transition periods.

No trade deal with anyone but the EU27 can save the UK economy and the UK employment. Nor will the UK political system and government be able to survive.

The SM rules are made in Brussels (by the EU27 Council and Parliament). Very much not in Dublin.

The SM rules are enforced by each member state with oversight from Brussels.
Ships between Ireland and other EU27 member states will not be inspected - No amount of pragmatism counts here at all.

Lars

Leroy42

Does the HoC vote on trade deals?

Roanmore

Another Brexiteer caught out. The look on the guys face says it all

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1158876706708643840

First Up

reslfj wrote:

The SM rules are enforced by each member state with oversight from Brussels. Ships between Ireland and other EU27 member states will not be inspected - No amount of pragmatism counts here at all.

Oh it counts a great deal. The EU (Commission, Parliament and all 26 other members) are acutely aware of the border conundrum. They have been thoroughly briefed by Irish officials and are sympathetic and fully supportive of Ireland's situation.

The solution (and there will be one, irrespective of what the UK eventually does) will be whatever works best for Ireland and the EU.

Ireland will not be used as a backdoor to the EU for non compliant goods. But neither will we be asked to risk the political and economic progress of the last 20 years by being the EU's border guards.

If that means a bit of give and take on checking paperwork at Irish ports - it will be done, with the assistance and support of Frontex and the whole EU administration.

The EU is well aware that the UK sees Ireland as a bargaining chip. There is not the remotest possibility that they will get to use it.

ath262

Latest update from Tony Connelly on twitter
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429

McGiver

Sam Russell wrote:

He cannot store it, nor can he drink it. So what does he do?

He has to "believe in Brexit more". Or HMG will come and nationalise it.

This is seriously being talked about in the UK right now. Surreal. Every day is a new Peak Brexit, higher than previous day. October is going to be a popcorn time. If only people's livelihoods weren't at stake!

Capt'n Midnight

Nody wrote: »

For funzies here's the relevant rates btw; non concentrated milk is 14% (Milk and cream, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter.).

[12.9 EUR/100 kg] [13.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of <= 1%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[17.9 EUR/100 kg] [22.7 EUR/100 kg] [21.8 EUR/100 kg] [18.8 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 1% but <= 6%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 6% but <= 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
[182.8 EUR/100 kg] [110 EUR/100 kg] [109.1 EUR/100 kg] [56.6 EUR/100 kg] [57.5 EUR/100 kg] [183.7 EUR/100 kg] Milk and cream of a fat content by weight of > 10%, not concentrated nor containing added sugar or other sweetening matter
That's charged day 1 on a hard brexit but more importantly since UK is not recognized as an competent country for control (takes 6 months minimum as per EU law) all milk has to go through full controls without exceptions so that milk is not moving anywhere anytime soon. To put the above in perspective I know a company that drives cream from Norway to Spain to produce a certain product and then drive the product back up again to be able to offset the Norwegian tariffs and they charge similar enough to EU. That's how much of a difference they make...

One small point. It's not 14% , it's € per 100Kg = cent per Kg

And as Jacob Rees-Mogg Esq. can tell you a litre of milk weighs near enough 1.03 Kg there being 16 fluid ounces to the pound, unless you live in 'merica where they have their own idiocentric system of 'imperial' units. Because doing a trade deal with the US will get mighty confusing unless they use metric.


Anyway the effective tariff is 73% that's instant game-over for those exporting bulk milk southwards.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49272343

At present the average trade price of a litre of British milk is 26p. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, where 19p tariffs could be applied, that price would be pushed up to 45p in the Republic.

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

Oh it counts a great deal. The EU (Commission, Parliament and all 26 other members) are acutely aware of the border conundrum. They have been thoroughly briefed by Irish officials and are sympathetic and fully supportive of Ireland's situation.

The solution (and there will be one, irrespective of what the UK eventually does) will be whatever works best for Ireland and the EU.

Ireland will not be used as a backdoor to the EU for non compliant goods. But neither will we be asked to risk the political and economic progress of the last 20 years by being the EU's border guards.

If that means a bit of give and take on checking paperwork at Irish ports - it will be done, with the assistance and support of Frontex and the whole EU administration.

The EU is well aware that the UK sees Ireland as a bargaining chip. There is not the remotest possibility that they will get to use it.

And the answer will be a border in the Irish Sea. But no weakening of that position will occur before the UK come begging. So the border will close, the noise from all sectors of the UK economy will do the rest. Why give up your position for nothing? That would be completely stupid.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Does the HoC vote on trade deals?

Anyone know the answer to this one?

Water John

HOC votes on Law and its own procedures.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Anyone know the answer to this one?

Unless they impact UK law, they are ratified by government.

LuckyLloyd

ath262 wrote: »

Latest update from Tony Connelly on twitter
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1159569582631399429

Nothing new in that for this thread, but good to see it confirmed that the Irish gov is clearly assessing the situation for what it is.

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

HOC votes on Law and its own procedures.

And "the constitution"

Since there is no written constitution there is nothing stopping the HoC bypassing or changing whatever thinks it is and then railroading that through the Lords with The Parliament Act.

Technically speaking Parliament could even decide to kill the head of state. Again.


Given that we are in uncharted waters with a the Fixed Term, historic defeats, MPs on both sides ignoring the whip, Proroguing , Bercow using a convention from 1604 and others using the Henry VIII clauses from 1539 anything is possible.

listermint

First Up wrote: »

Oh it counts a great deal. The EU (Commission, Parliament and all 26 other members) are acutely aware of the border conundrum. They have been thoroughly briefed by Irish officials and are sympathetic and fully supportive of Ireland's situation.

The solution (and there will be one, irrespective of what the UK eventually does) will be whatever works best for Ireland and the EU.

Ireland will not be used as a backdoor to the EU for non compliant goods. But neither will we be asked to risk the political and economic progress of the last 20 years by being the EU's border guards.

If that means a bit of give and take on checking paperwork at Irish ports - it will be done, with the assistance and support of Frontex and the whole EU administration.

The EU is well aware that the UK sees Ireland as a bargaining chip. There is not the remotest possibility that they will get to use it.

None of this is factual and there is no evidence that small side deals will be done. Which is basically what you've been Hocking for about ten pages now.

Capt'n Midnight

listermint wrote: »

None of this is factual and there is no evidence that small side deals will be done. Which is basically what you've been Hocking for about ten pages now.

+1

Yes the EU will allow some unilateral measures, but that's so EU citizens aren't impacted.



Large parts of the UK financial sector are reliant on the EU offering Equivalence to continue trading in the EU.

Even if they get it, and the UK is diverging on from the EU on things like Data Protection, it can be rescinded with 30 days notice.

prawnsambo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Nothing new in that for this thread, but good to see it confirmed that the Irish gov is clearly assessing the situation for what it is.

I must have missed it, but the rejection of the level playing field provisions is news to me.

jimmycrackcorm

trellheim wrote: »

Mark Francois embarassing himself https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1159464448165388288

Am I the only one who thinks that, were I in his position, I'd go through a deed of poll to change my surname to something that's sounds like an old English sheepdog to prove my Brexit sincerity?

jimmycrackcorm

Leroy42 wrote: »

The sting will be taken out of Brexit when they leave. You won't have people outside parliament, it won't be on every news bulletin. Nobody is interested in trade deals.

The actual details of any trade deal will be glossed over, there certainly will not beca running commentary about it.

When it comes to accepting chlorinated chicken to feed their kids school lunches, we will be reminded of the TV shows Jamie Oliver did on their school lunches, all while the Daily Express publishes photos showing how much bigger the chicken portions are instead of the days under the slavery of the EU.

Larbre34

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Am I the only one who thinks that, were I in his position, I'd go through a deed of poll to change my surname to something that's sounds like an old English sheepdog to prove my Brexit sincerity?

I thought only the Royal Family did that.

Capt'n Midnight

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Only 741 companies in the UK applied for part of an £8m training fund for companies and trade intermediaries such as freight forwarders.

£8m to cover training for 240,000 companies ?

The latest on our training fund : https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0807/1067438-new-measure-to-help-businesses-with-customs-requirement/

It includes a training programme which will be delivered nationwide over a 6 week period providing essential skills needed to make a compliant customs declaration.

Business can also apply for a Customs Financial Support payment to assist with the costs of recruiting and assigning new staff to customs roles. This payment is up to €6,000 per employee that completes the training programme, up to maximum of 10 employees per company.

BluePlanet

Regarding the announcement that Britain was exiting the Interrail and EURail system, only to U-Turn within 24 hours.

Independent journalist Jon Stone has been looking into this.
On his twitter feed he says it seems that BritRail decided to stop selling EURail tickets, and instead wanted to to charge customers the same fee to buy a separate BritRail pass.
Whereas that same fee would traditionally covered all EU and Britain.
So EURail kicked them out.
Now BritRail has reconsidered and done a UTurn.
Maybe there'll be some Brexit lessons here.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1159060705749929984

Peregrinus

20silkcut wrote: »

At the risk of running foul of the mods what should Francois hypothetically change his name to??

He has already changed his name. He was born Mark François, but from his adolescence he has spelt it "Francois", and reportedly he gets very upset if anybody spells his name "François".

fash

prawnsambo wrote: »

I must have missed it, but the rejection of the level playing field provisions is news to me.

Happened over the last 2 weeks or so.

First Up

listermint wrote:

None of this is factual and there is no evidence that small side deals will be done. Which is basically what you've been Hocking for about ten pages now.

Well if you havent grasped that it won't be a side deal after ten pages I think we should just wait and see, will we?

First Up

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

Large parts of the UK financial sector are reliant on the EU offering Equivalence to continue trading in the EU.

Even if they get it, and the UK is diverging on from the EU on things like Data Protection, it can be rescinded with 30 days notice.

Absolutely true and absolutely nothing to do with the Irish border.