Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

J Mysterio

Shelga wrote: »

Saiid Javid on the radio just now, commenting upon the fact that the UK has just experienced a quarter of negative growth- “What is driving this is uncertainty, and the best way to give certainty is to leave on October the 31st.”

Ie the best way to give certainty to business is to leave with no deal on the 31st, to rip up all rules of trading overnight, to eliminate standards, with absolutely nothing to replace them. Yes, that’s really going to provide certainty, Sajid.

A no-deal Brexit will mean the UK goes into severe recession overnight. How he can claim anything else is incredible.

That this charlatan is the actual Chancellor of the Exchequer is terrifying and abhorrent.

It just can't be overstated. UK are completely lost. Madness.

amacca

I'm a farmer so have lost a lot of money and under a lot of pressure in the business at least in part due to Brexit but if it wasn't so serious and potentially capable of running me out of business I would find what's going on over in Brexitland fascinating to watch.

Has any country ever managed to self implode so spectacularly from a position of relative strength and importance ... talk about manoeuvring themselves into a rock and hard place .... what's happening now reminds me of a guy stuck in quicksand thrashing around in an attempt to escape and only succeeding in sinking further.....i hope we won't have to witness death throes in October.

Neutral onlookers must be highly amused.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

Farage comes on stage with air raid sirens blaring so I guess his demographic remembers.

Ive wondered about this whole blitz spirit thing.
When did it turn from we saved Europe into we are at war with Europe and the anti European sentiment?

We know the press in the uk have been anti Eu for at least 40 years. How did it come about and how has it lasted so long leading to this?
I can’t help but see a small cadre of billionaire men of a certain age who all own newspapers and tv stations in a cigar smoky room drinking brandy.

It’s all really bizarre.

James o brien made the point yesterday that brexiters still think they’re at war but not just with Germany but all of Europe.

I just can’t figure out how

trellheim

GBP/USD at lowest since 1985 at what point do the red flashing lights and siren wailing start coming on for these people

https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1159793746046857218

its like someone in a nuclear reactor control room saying 'turn off those darned alarms, I cant hear myself think'

jimmycrackcorm

Shelga wrote: »

Saiid Javid on the radio just now, commenting upon the fact that the UK has just experienced a quarter of negative growth- “What is driving this is uncertainty, and the best way to give certainty is to leave on October the 31st.”

Ie the best way to give certainty to business is to leave with no deal on the 31st, to rip up all rules of trading overnight, to eliminate standards, with absolutely nothing to replace them. Yes, that’s really going to provide certainty, Sajid.

A no-deal Brexit will mean the UK goes into severe recession overnight. How he can claim anything else is incredible.

That this charlatan is the actual Chancellor of the Exchequer is terrifying and abhorrent.

It's quite amusing that so much focus by the Brexiteers is to get to that Oct 31 deadline to get out with a hard Brexit, do or die.

Simply no realisation or discussion about moving forward with the EU afterwards. As if the withdrawal agreement disappears overnight and they can simply move to the easiest FTA in history.

You can imagine the UK negotiaters arriving the following day in Brussels to say, job dusted, on to FTA now. And the perplexed look as they keep repeating that while the EU replies, ahem.. border, bill, and citizen rights.

Tikki Wang Wang

trellheim wrote: »

GBP/USD at lowest since 1985 at what point do the red flashing lights and siren wailing start coming on for these people

https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1159793746046857218

its like someone in a nuclear reactor control room saying 'turn off those darned alarms, I cant hear myself think'

3.6 not great not terrible.

FastFullBack

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

When did it turn from we saved Europe into we are at war with Europe and the anti European sentiment?

We know the press in the uk have been anti Eu for at least 40 years. How did it come about and how has it lasted so long leading to this?
I can’t help but see a small cadre of billionaire men of a certain age who all own newspapers and tv stations in a cigar smoky room drinking brandy.

Channel 5 had a great documentary on last night and last week "The Trouble With the Tories"
https://www.channel5.com/show/portillo-the-trouble-with-the-tories/

Went into all the history off thatcher and how she was the start of the core Euro-Skepticism and how it's grown and grown from there. Was great viewing. might be on a catchup player.

Infini

trellheim wrote: »

GBP/USD at lowest since 1985 at what point do the red flashing lights and siren wailing start coming on for these people

https://twitter.com/Annaisaac/status/1159793746046857218

its like someone in a nuclear reactor control room saying 'turn off those darned alarms, I cant hear myself think'

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=12h

Edging very close to the 93p mark (92.85) it's spiked up again this morning.

Stop moaning ffs

FastFullBack wrote: »

Channel 5 had a great documentary on last night and last week "The Trouble With the Tories"
https://www.channel5.com/show/portillo-the-trouble-with-the-tories/

Went into all the history off thatcher and how she was the start of the core Euro-Skepticism and how it's grown and grown from there. Was great viewing. might be on a catchup player.

Oh wow. Just what I was looking for thanks a million!!

Dytalus

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/09/no-10-cancels-staff-leave-raising-possibility-of-snap-election

Rumours of a snap election circulating with staff leave being cancelled. The situation continues to grow more chaotic. If Johnson loses a no confidence vote, it seems they'll try and force a no-deal anyway rather than ask for an extension to allow for an election.

ambro25

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's quite amusing that so much focus by the Brexiteers is to get to that Oct 31 deadline to get out with a hard Brexit, do or die.

Simply no realisation or discussion about moving forward with the EU afterwards. As if the withdrawal agreement disappears overnight and they can simply move to the easiest FTA in history.

You can imagine the UK negotiaters arriving the following day in Brussels to say, job dusted, on to FTA now. And the perplexed look as they keep repeating that while the EU replies, ahem.. border, bill, and citizen rights.

Symptomatic of typically-British economic short-termism, setting the political agenda as it does these days: get over the opportunity line, cash the chips...alright, now where's the next hustle to be had?

Not really a problem, so long as the political influence of lobbyists remains balanced by a combination of domestic electoral pressure and commonsensically-consensual geopolitics.

But then, once the lobbyists themselves get into power, such as in the US and the UK...

Water John

They are aiming for a narrow window it seems. Election on Nov 1st looks a distinct possibility. Election through Oct before 31st crash out. Before the 11th Nov when the country would officially enter recession and before shortages, blocked ports, etc.

Remember Johnson has handed the keys to Cummings.

trellheim

Went into all the history off thatcher and how she was the start of the core Euro-Skepticism

One of my core articles is that Thatcher never took the UK out of the EU , she was right to be skeptical and managed to get the rebate out of them - but she never wanted to leave.

c_murph

Call me Al wrote: »

It's up there with Boris spouting on with "do or die" when it comes to Brexit.
Does he realise that he's invoking a poem about the deaths of British soldiers who were dismally led by their military superiors into the "valley of death"?
Irony doesn't even begin to describe it.

The funny part is that the line of the poem is actually "do and die" - it's the inevitability of death and destruction that makes them heroic in their charge.

Somehow I doubt history will be as kind to the Tories as it is to the soldiers of the Light Brigade.

lawred2

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Watching that Mark Francois clip, I notice that his debating rival mentioned the mistakes made by generals who “believed in Britain” in the past.

This is something that should probably be mentioned more often. Every time a Brexiter invokes the Blitz spirit of WWII, they should be reminded that there as a war before that in which huge swathes of the ordinary youth of Britain were sacrificed because of the arrogant and imperialistic follies of the upper classes and political elites ... WWI is a much better metaphor for this sh*tshow

sure they think they 'won' that one too

Sam Russell

c_murph wrote: »

The funny part is that the line of the poem is actually "do and die" - it's the inevitability of death and destruction that makes them heroic in their charge.

Somehow I doubt history will be as kind to the Tories as it is to the soldiers of the Light Brigade.

It is ironic that the Light Brigade did in fact get to the (wrong) guns, but most perished. It was the follow on charge of the Heavy Brigade that was utter folly.

If the Boris Brigade charge the (wrong) Brexit No Deal, will it be the charge of the Corbyn Brigade that gets utterly destroyed?

Seth Brundle

Infini wrote: »

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=GBP&view=12h

Edging very close to the 93p mark (92.85) it's spiked up again this morning.

This just shows how wonderful how the Brexit planning is going...
https://twitter.com/ZoltanKarlovits/status/1159131723885682688

Robert McGrath

c_murph wrote: »

The funny part is that the line of the poem is actually "do and die" - it's the inevitability of death and destruction that makes them heroic in their charge.

Somehow I doubt history will be as kind to the Tories as it is to the soldiers of the Light Brigade.

And that misquote was pointed out by Guy Verhofstadt recently in a beautiful example of the EU reps caring more about details than the Brexiters ...

serfboard

Enzokk wrote: »

As for Johnson, he will circumvent parliament to get no-deal to get rid of the Brexit Party threat to get a bigger majority so he can be PM for longer. I can see no other reason for going through with the rhetoric they have going on other than they want to leave without a deal. We know Conservative Party voters will vote Brexit Party if Brexit is not delivered. If it is then he doesn't have to worry about that threat.

I think there is a lot of logic in this.

Go to no-deal and call election. This gets rid of the Brexit Party & UKIP. This also gets rid of the Eurosceptics in the Tory party for once and for all because they are now out of the EU.

Now, go back to the EU for an FTA deal. EU says that's grand, but we need EU Citizens rights, the backstop and the bill settled.

Boris says, that's fine no problem. Howls from the Eurosceptics and Farage. Boris' response? You wanted us to be out. We are out. Boris is now in power for five years, and that's all he cares about. Talk of treachery be damned - we said we were going to leave the EU, we have left the EU. That topic is now closed. With our new FTA (same as WA, but never mind about that), plucky little Britain is the country that took on the EU - and won.

Bigus

serfboard wrote: »

I think there is a lot of logic in this.

Go to no-deal and call election. This gets rid of the Brexit Party & UKIP. This also gets rid of the Eurosceptics in the Tory party for once and for all because they are now out of the EU.

Now, go back to the EU for an FTA deal. EU says that's grand, but we need EU Citizens rights, the backstop and the bill settled.

Boris says, that's fine no problem. Howls from the Eurosceptics and Farage. Boris' response? You wanted us to be out. We are out. Boris is now in power for five years, and that's all he cares about. Talk of treachery be damned - we said we were going to leave the EU, we have left the EU. That topic is now closed. With our new FTA (same as WA, but never mind about that), plucky little Britain is the country that took on the EU - and won.

It certainly Lances the boil for sure , might be the best thing in the long run for both UK and EU, to be rid of Brexiteers, otherwise it drags on for a generation.

Strazdas

amacca wrote: »

I'm a farmer so have lost a lot of money and under a lot of pressure in the business at least in part due to Brexit but if it wasn't so serious and potentially capable of running me out of business I would find what's going on over in Brexitland fascinating to watch.

Has any country ever managed to self implode so spectacularly from a position of relative strength and importance ... talk about manoeuvring themselves into a rock and hard place .... what's happening now reminds me of a guy stuck in quicksand thrashing around in an attempt to escape and only succeeding in sinking further.....i hope we won't have to witness death throes in October.

Neutral onlookers must be highly amused.

I think most functioning democracies would be able to get themselves out of the Brexit mess relatively easily - a second referendum, cancel the referendum result, some sort of political compromise between the parties, whatever.

The fact that they can't tells us it is a deeply dysfunctional country at a political level, with too many liars, spoofers, fantasists and zealots across the entire political and media spectrum.

BonnieSituation

serfboard wrote: »

I think there is a lot of logic in this.

Go to no-deal and call election. This gets rid of the Brexit Party & UKIP. This also gets rid of the Eurosceptics in the Tory party for once and for all because they are now out of the EU.

Now, go back to the EU for an FTA deal. EU says that's grand, but we need EU Citizens rights, the backstop and the bill settled.

Boris says, that's fine no problem. Howls from the Eurosceptics and Farage. Boris' response? You wanted us to be out. We are out. Boris is now in power for five years, and that's all he cares about. Talk of treachery be damned - we said we were going to leave the EU, we have left the EU. That topic is now closed. With our new FTA (same as WA, but never mind about that), plucky little Britain is the country that took on the EU - and won.

And while that seems all as likely as anything that Brexit has thrown up, it also forgets that the UK will be a 3rd country come November 1st.

So eh, to the back of the queue.

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And while that seems all as likely as anything that Brexit has thrown up, it also forgets that the UK will be a 3rd country come November 1st.

So eh, to the back of the queue.

I think that is what truck drivers going into Dover will hear.

I think the Brexiteers will be too busy drinking the last of the Champers.

prawnsambo

serfboard wrote: »

I think there is a lot of logic in this.

Go to no-deal and call election. This gets rid of the Brexit Party & UKIP. This also gets rid of the Eurosceptics in the Tory party for once and for all because they are now out of the EU.

Now, go back to the EU for an FTA deal. EU says that's grand, but we need EU Citizens rights, the backstop and the bill settled.

Boris says, that's fine no problem. Howls from the Eurosceptics and Farage. Boris' response? You wanted us to be out. We are out. Boris is now in power for five years, and that's all he cares about. Talk of treachery be damned - we said we were going to leave the EU, we have left the EU. That topic is now closed. With our new FTA (same as WA, but never mind about that), plucky little Britain is the country that took on the EU - and won.

It's a bit of a gamble that they'd win an election with a no deal brexit certain. Yes, they'd get the hard core brexit vote, but that's not necessarily a big enough vote to win an election with.

Imreoir2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And while that seems all as likely as anything that Brexit has thrown up, it also forgets that the UK will be a 3rd country come November 1st.

So eh, to the back of the queue.

For the FTA yes, but the backstop is needed now, not in five years time. If the UK is willing to agree the outstanding issues at the end of November backstop included, I can't see the EU telling them it is too late fort he backstop to be implemented. I seriously think the EU would be more than willing to extend a transition arangement if the UK finally agrees to the the requirements of the WA, even if it comes a few weeks into a no-deal Brexit.

Imreoir2

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a bit of a gamble that they'd win an election with a no deal brexit certain. Yes, they'd get the hard core brexit vote, but that's not necessarily a big enough vote to win an election with.

No, but it does unite one side (the brexiteers) while the remainers are still devided, with FPTP that alone could deliver a landslide for Boris even if he only got something like 35% of the electorate.

serfboard

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And while that seems all as likely as anything that Brexit has thrown up, it also forgets that the UK will be a 3rd country come November 1st.

So eh, to the back of the queue.

Excuse me! Have you forgotten that they need us more than we need them?!

German car makers, French wine makers etc. etc. etc. .....

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

No, but it does unite one side (the brexiteers) while the remainers are still devided, with FPTP that alone could deliver a landslide for Boris even if he only got something like 35% of the electorate.

The situation could be very chaotic around the day of the general election though. I'm not at all convinced that the mood among Leave voters would be jubilant.....the pound would probably be in freefall once No Deal was certain and all sorts of alarm bells going off.

serfboard

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's a bit of a gamble that they'd win an election with a no deal brexit certain.

Indeed, but the whole Cummings/Johnson strategy at the moment is a massive gamble - gambling that they can get the Paddys to break, that they can get those Eurocrats to break, gambling with an election, gambling with the economy, with their currency and on and on ...

BonnieSituation

Imreoir2 wrote: »

For the FTA yes, but the backstop is needed now, not in five years time. If the UK is willing to agree the outstanding issues at the end of November backstop included, I can't see the EU telling them it is too late fort he backstop to be implemented. I seriously think the EU would be more than willing to extend a transition arangement if the UK finally agrees to the the requirements of the WA, even if it comes a few weeks into a no-deal Brexit.

Of course not. But there's no way the UK are gonna do that. Regardless of the desperation. I mean stiff upper lip and all that. Tallyho.