Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

Strazdas wrote: »

The situation could be very chaotic around the day of the general election though. I'm not at all convinced that the mood among Leave voters would be jubilant.....the pound would probably be in freefall once No Deal was certain and all sorts of alarm bells going off.

The pounds already in freefall, its dropped more today than it has on any friday in the last year, typically its been a pattern of dropping its largest amount on monday and recovering somewhat for the rest of the week. After todays quarterly announcements that pattern has seemingly changed.

Seth Brundle

serfboard wrote: »

Indeed, but the whole Cummings/Johnson strategy at the moment is a massive gamble - gambling that they can get the Paddys to break, that they can get those Eurocrats to break, gambling with an election, gambling with the economy, with their currency and on and on ...

I honestly doubt that Cummings understands the viewpoint of the Irish.
"If you know your enemy, don't be afraid to fight; if you don't know your enemy, be warned that you might lose!"

Imreoir2

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Of course not. But there's no way the UK are gonna do that. Regardless of the desperation. I mean stiff upper lip and all that. Tallyho.

Time will tell I guess, but in any case every indication seems to suggest Johnsons strat is to go for no deal with an election in the first week of Nov.

prawnsambo

serfboard wrote: »

Indeed, but the whole Cummings/Johnson strategy at the moment is a massive gamble - gambling that they can get the Paddys to break, that they can get those Eurocrats to break, gambling with an election, gambling with the economy, with their currency and on and on ...

I honestly don't think they are that stupid. Granted there are many in cabinet that that doesn't apply to, but Cummings never struck me as stupid. And taking gambles on outsider odds would require a lot of balls and at least a plan B or a hedge. A lot of the bluster and blather seems (to me anyway) to be internally directed. I do believe an election is the end game, but one that straddles B-day 3 would be a gamble too far. Better to direct your megaphones towards the electorate and persuade ALL the leavers that you are their man rather than prove to the more moderate ones that you are definitively not.

There was a chap phoned into LBC this morning who'd clearly bought this "threaten no deal seriously" hokum, hook, line and sinker.

Edit: Here's an article by Robert Peston that at least partially agrees with me. Apparently there is disagreement internally in Number 10 (between Cummiings and Johnson possibly) as to whether the election should be before or after B-day 3.

briany

Remember when Tusk said, "Please do not waste this time..."?

Well,

(It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia title card and music)

"The Gang wastes Six Months"

BluePlanet

briany wrote: »

Remember when Tusk said, "Please do not waste this time..."?

Well,

(It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia title card and music)

"The Gang wastes Six Months"

Yes and this never seems to register in UK media, that the government have destroyed any goodwill by willfully ignoring the Agreement to Extend Brexit.
On that basis alone i don't think they should be given another Extension if they ask for one.

The current crop in Government must simply be disaster capitalists, yet i don't remember reading much about this during the run up to pick BoJo.

trellheim

look at that exchange rate https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1159828167248400384 ... .once you start hitting journalists in the pocket maybe things might change chuckle

Leroy42

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

prawnsambo

briany wrote: »

Remember when Tusk said, "Please do not waste this time..."?

Well,

(It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia title card and music)

"The Gang wastes Six Months"

I'm sure Tusk was not only expressing his own view, but that of many of the EuCo members. Macron springs to mind here.

briany

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

VinLieger

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

This would make a small bit of sense sense iF every week of indecision wasn't also still costing them 600 million.

There is permanent damage that has been done to business trade with Ireland and other EU countries that may not be reparable. Companies here and in the EU have adjusted their supply chains and who they do business with in preparation for no deal and they aren't likely to change back if suddenly everything went back to normal because thats not how things work. The trust is gone and new relationships have been forged, to revert this will cost a lot by way of incentives from the UK.

Kermit.de.frog

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

Only if you believed the EU has as much to lose as the UK. It doesn't.

Water John

So the only argument in No 10 is, do we hold the election before or after the 31st Oct?

That's a disagreement about a micro detail within the Plan. Legally Johnson would be on far better ground if he's PM of a Tory Govn't after an election, at the time of leaving.

prawnsambo

briany wrote: »

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

There are certainly some in the HoC who would fit that mould. JRM's dad wrote the book on disaster capitalism and there are others who would have a similar outlook. All kinds of talk of Farage making money on the night of the result and even accusations of him conceding early with the view to increasing the return. But you've also got the connection between Bamford (of JCB fame) and Johnson and Priti Patel who seems to be on a special deal with just about anyone with money.

You'd like to think that it's not about money, but it's hard not to get drawn back to the amount of money that's sloshing around in the corridors of power. Just as an example, here's a tweet from Robert Harris (yes, that Robert Harris) that gives a tiny glimpse into this world.

BluePlanet

briany wrote: »

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

In my own view, disaster capitalists are libertarians and deem it necessary to grenade the current economic order in order to create it anew, with libertarian ideas.

Without grenading everything sufficiently, existing strands within the economic order remain, and will be able to coalesce and re-form statist regulation and control, thus thwart the libertarian dream.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine

Quin_Dub

trellheim wrote: »

look at that exchange rate https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1159828167248400384 ... .once you start hitting journalists in the pocket maybe things might change chuckle

The responses are hilarious - The exchange rate that he got is not because the arse is falling out of Sterling , it's all because he went to the Post Office and they gave him a crap rate.

Clearly if he'd gone somewhere else they would have given him the "real" exchange rate!!!

Ignoring the factual information that that is indeed the current value of Sterling!

briany

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Unexpectedly?!

What a headline, shooting oneself in foot leads to unexpected pain /s

Man, last seen walking on train tracks at night, found next morning, mysteriously flattened.

More at 11.

10000maniacs

trellheim wrote: »

look at that exchange rate https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1159828167248400384 ... .once you start hitting journalists in the pocket maybe things might change chuckle

The Pound is down 60 percentage points on the dollar in the period that the Tories were in power.
Johnson is chirping on that wages are now going up in the public service. :pac:
But the UK's spending power around the world has diminished drastically since they came to power and is about to get a whole lot worse.
Economic minnow state beckons.

VinLieger

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The responses are hilarious - The exchange rate that he got is not because the arse is falling out of Sterling , it's all because he went to the Post Office and they gave him a crap rate.

Clearly if he'd gone somewhere else they would have given him the "real" exchange rate!!!

Ignoring the factual information that that is indeed the current value of Sterling!

Its actually not, the post office does give an awful rate which from that pic looks to be about 1.0050, the real current rate is hovering around 1.0780.

It will likely get that low in real terms by september if the current decline keeps up.

ancapailldorcha

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Unexpectedly?!

What a headline, shooting oneself in foot leads to unexpected pain /s

briany wrote: »

Man, last seen walking on train tracks at night, found next morning, mysteriously flattened.

More at 11.

Serious discussion only please.

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

Its actually not, the post office does give an awful rate which from that pic looks to be about 1.0050, the real current rate is hovering around 1.0780.

It will likely get that low in real terms by september if the current decline keeps up.

But you never get the forex rate in folding currency transactions. There's always a transaction fee and/or commission. I was in an Irish PO the other day and they were buying sterling cash at around 95p to the Euro. A better rate than that chap got, but still a couple of pence less than the day rate on forex markets.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

Your international reputation goes out the window with the steering wheel and that is someting that will take a lot longer to recover than simply agreeing a WA.

spacecoyote

prawnsambo wrote: »

But you never get the forex rate in folding currency transactions. There's always a transaction fee and/or commission. I was in an Irish PO the other day and they were buying sterling cash at around 95p to the Euro. A better rate than that chap got, but still a couple of pence less than the day rate on forex markets.

Absolutely, you'll not get the current market spot FX rate in any currency exchange place. They always have their bid/offer spread either side (ie the rate the either buy or sell the currency at)

Looking at XE.COM you can see the quoted spot rate is:
1 EUR = 0.927561 GBP

But if you go onto a currency exchange site you'll see something like:
We Buy 0.9497
We Sell 0.8957

These people are all looking to make money on both sides of the exchange.

Imreoir2

briany wrote: »

When people say that there are disaster capitalists in the current crop of UK government, how do they think that really looks? What I mean is that when, say, Boris Johnson makes a public speech about how many great opportunities lie in Brexit, and then heads back inside no. 10, does he go to be by himself for a moment and say out loud, "Jesus Christ, that lot out there will believe anything.... Now, where's that investment portfolio?"

Like, are they all consciously thinking, "Sod the country. Let's make some motherf*cking money!"? Are they all corporate nihilists?

Or have they convinced themselves that somehow leaving the EU really will be better for the UK as a whole, but them especially?

I don't think Johnson is a disaster capitalist, he wants to be a great British statesman and has recognised that Brexit offers him an opportunity to get ahead politically. That coin flip decision to back brexit over remain before the referendum has really worked out for him thus far.

He will do whatever is in his own political interest, if that is no-deal, then no-deal it is. If it is doing a deal with the EU, then a deal he shall do. I don't think he cares too much about the outcome for the UK, he is focused on himself.

At worst, he has presumably calculated that the EU, being a rational player, will do a deal that is in its own interest at any point Johnson decides he wants one. He can play chicken all he wants as long as it gains him support, as soon as he wants to get off the ride, the EU will help him down. The impact such a deal, or his posturing before hand, has on the UK is of lesser importance. Like a lot of populists he realises that reality in politics is something that can be manipulated easily enough and less heed needs to be paid to it than to optics and public perception.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

But you never get the forex rate in folding currency transactions. There's always a transaction fee and/or commission. I was in an Irish PO the other day and they were buying sterling cash at around 95p to the Euro. A better rate than that chap got, but still a couple of pence less than the day rate on forex markets.

The rate that guys was practically parity though, comparing that to a 95p rate when dealing with for example 300 euro as he did is a difference of 15-20 euro.


Im not disagreeing that sterling is FUBAR but people are right to point out that using the post office exchange rate is quite disingenuous.

Imreoir2

VinLieger wrote: »

The rate that guys was practically parity though, comparing that to a 95p rate when dealing with for example 300 euro as he did is a difference of 15-20 euro.


Im not disagreeing that sterling is FUBAR but people are right to point out that using the post office exchange rate is quite disingenuous.

Which is more disingenuous, the notional market rate at a given point in time, or the actual rate the ordinary punter has to pay?

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

The rate that guys was practically parity though, comparing that to a 95p rate when dealing with for example 300 euro as he did is a difference of 15-20 euro.


Im not disagreeing that sterling is FUBAR but people are right to point out that using the post office exchange rate is quite disingenuous.

Well it seems to be a regular enough occurrence lately. I've seen two other tweets recently along the same lines. One was a photo of an ATM screen giving parity and another was a guy who had spent £320 to get €300. Can't remember (if I even noted it) who the broker/bank was in those cases, but they both had backup in the form of photos. Obvious rip-offs clearly, but I've not seen anyone in the replies to those tweets suggesting any cheaper source than online fx brokers.

First Up

Imreoir2 wrote:

At worst, he has presumably calculated that the EU, being a rational player, will do a deal that is in its own interest at any point Johnson decides he wants one. He can play chicken all he wants as long as it gains him support, as soon as he wants to get off the ride, the EU will help him down.

More like they will let him fall down. The EU has always been sensitive to the political realities in member states and worked with them in doing what was possible. The UK govt seems to think the same will apply in their situation. They are making a serious mistake; they need to look at how the EU deals with non members.

I heard Ivan Rogers (former UK ambass to EU) describe how his Swiss colleague warned him what the UK could expect. It wasn't pretty.

fash

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I don't think Johnson is a disaster capitalist, he wants to be a great British statesman

I don't think he has thought beyond "(getting into [check] and) remaining in power for as long as possible". I doubt he is thinking of his legacy..

VinLieger

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Which is more disingenuous, the notional market rate at a given point in time, or the actual rate the ordinary punter has to pay?

But this is what im trying to say the Post Offices rates are not the same as you would get in a bank or airport exchange to buy Sterling vs Euro.