Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

fash wrote: »

I don't think he has thought beyond "(getting into [check] and) remaining in power for as long as possible". I doubt he is thinking of his legacy..

Oh come on, no one wants to be leader of the UK without fantisies about being the next Churchill. No normal person would want to lead the UK right now, but someone like Johnson sees it as an opportunity to be the leader that defines the next 50 years of Britain's history, at least. Leading the UK through the greatest challenge it has faced since the war.

Obviously he could end up being an infamous leader, but if he hangs in there long enough, and gets lucky, he might get to write the official version of events himself and have history remember him as a great leader. Its a long shot from our point of view, but we don't really understand the mentality of brexit in the first place. Overseeing a somewhat less than totally disasterous Brexit could be enough to have him hailed a hero in todays Britain.

trellheim

But this is what im trying to say the Post Offices rates are not the same as you would get in a bank or airport exchange to buy Sterling vs Euro

The Post Office is marketed heavily in the UK as a place to buy foreign currency before you go. (As is ours ... )

If this keeps up you will see euro-27 suppliers ripping up sterling contracts if they possibly can unless they've hedged but i'd say betting the other side is going to take some risk premium so likely they won't be able to hedge too much more unless Cummings sets out their bottom lines ( the real ones )

reslfj

Leroy42 wrote: »

...
Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

I for one has (almost) always pointed out the WA text " - sans transition periods", which are of much more need and value to the UK and a major concession from the EU27.

But the WA text is only the prerequisite for even starting post Brexit day negotiations on anything else. The EU27 can wait and wait. Negotiations will, however, very shortly after Brexit be of the utmost urgency for the UK - politically first and a little later for the UK economy.

There will very likely be more - for the UK very unpleasant EU27 demands - following the ratification of the WA text. The WA has always been described as the easy part.

One of the only cards of any value the UK still holds is "an orderly Brexit", which are very much wanted in Brussels and among the EU27 members.

If the UK discard "the orderly Brexit" with a 'No deal' Brexit, it will have significant less leverage in future negotiations.

We may in fact start a discussion on points the EU27 might or even should demand as extras from Little-UK following a 'No Deal' Brexit?

Lars

Imreoir2

Just to put the currency rate into perspective, Sterling has lost 25% of its value since its high point back in 2015.

Warnings of the worst case scenario are that it would lose another 25% off its current value in a no-deal Brexit.

Stop moaning ffs

Seth Brundle wrote: »

This just shows how wonderful how the Brexit planning is going...
https://twitter.com/ZoltanKarlovits/status/1159131723885682688

If it’s no deal on the 31st and it happens, I’ve no interest or understanding in the markets but I’m Going to stay up all night and watch for Japan’s and a cascade effect of the pound plummeting through the floor in different time zones.

They deserve it at this stage.

Water John

If it keeps going towards Brexit between now and 31st Oct, the financial market will factor this in and will be mostly corrected by the fall out date.
Fund Managers and Currency Exchange guys won't suddenly wake up on the 31st and go,'Oh sh1t'.

Stop moaning ffs

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Oh come on, no one wants to be leader of the UK without fantisies about being the next Churchill. No normal person would want to lead the UK right now, but someone like Johnson sees it as an opportunity to be the leader that defines the next 50 years of Britain's history, at least. Leading the UK through the greatest challenge it has faced since the war.

Obviously he could end up being an infamous leader, but if he hangs in there long enough, and gets lucky, he might get to write the official version of events himself and have history remember him as a great leader. Its a long shot from our point of view, but we don't really understand the mentality of brexit in the first place. Overseeing a somewhat less than totally disasterous Brexit could be enough to have him hailed a hero in todays Britain.

You’ve got it in one.
He doesn’t care about the circumstances the country facing. He’s getting to live out his Churchill cosplay fantasy in real time.
That’s all he cares about.
A little bit of me wants him to just scrape through and dump the DUP put the border in the sea deliver brexit and no better man to spin that as a victory. Even though a deal is still awful for Britain. A no deal is worse though by an immeasurable degree and that’s his plan it seems.

fash

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

A no deal is worse though by an immeasurable degree and that’s his plan it seems.

I'm not convinced it is worse from his perspective

fash

reslfj wrote: »

One of the only cards of any value the UK still holds is "an orderly Brexit", which are very much wanted in Brussels and among the EU27 members.

Whether accurate or not, they think they have an opportunity to threaten to lock in to the US world system and out of the EU world system and that that is something of value for the EU to lose.

reslfj

fash wrote: »

Whether accurate or not, they think they have an opportunity to threaten to lock in to the US world system and out of the EU world system and that that is something of value for the EU to lose.

The US is no substitute for UK trade with the EU27 - not by a thousand miles.

The UK may try the US, but the EU27 can just wait them out - and "for the UK very unpleasant" will be a huge understatement of what will then happen.

Don't play with stones when you live in a house of glass.

Lars

PeadarCo

Leroy42 wrote:

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

The issue is though to take the analogy further is you can play chicken if both you and person going head on are in a car. However it doesn't work if the other person is in a tank and can absorb the collision and continue on while you get flattened.

A no deal Brexit would damage the EU and especially Ireland however far less in the long run than letting a country like the UK pick and choose. It's something I haven't seen from Brexiters, they don't seem to appear to understand the options they are presenting to the EU and especially Ireland. The EUs negotiation position is also determined by certain political and economic realities ie you can't let a country pick and choose or the EU falls apart. And in Irelands case the choice is either stay in the EU or leave and join a customs Union and single market with the UK.

The option that the EU and Ireland will choose is obvious to anyone fimilar with a good understanding of the politics of the EU and Ireland. However Brexiters especially don't appear to understand the real politic of the EU and especially Ireland.

dresden8

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

After they crash out the EU can't "give" them anything.

They will be a 3rd country and there will have to be a renegotiation process that will have to be approved by every government and some regional parliaments.

Pop out and then pop back in is not guaranteed.

prawnsambo

dresden8 wrote: »

After they crash out the EU can't "give" them anything.

They will be a 3rd country and there will have to be a renegotiation process that will have to be approved by every government and some regional parliaments.

Pop out and then pop back in is not guaranteed.

The amusing thing is that since the start of this process, the actual rules were forgotten about on the UK side. Constant running around Europe trying to persuade various leaders to do deals with them. And they clearly believed this was possible. Even now, if the above analysis is true, they still don't seem to get it. It would be funny if they came back and were pointed to the relevant section of the Lisbon Treaty and told to form an orderly queue behind Turkey.

steddyeddy

The UK economy is shrinking with the value of the pound approaching the value of the Euro.

All reported on by the Telegraph, one of the leading cheerleaders for their employee, BJ.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-ftse-red-growth/

Joe_ Public

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Watching that Mark Francois clip, I notice that his debating rival mentioned the mistakes made by generals who “believed in Britain” in the past.

This is something that should probably be mentioned more often. Every time a Brexiter invokes the Blitz spirit of WWII, they should be reminded that there as a war before that in which huge swathes of the ordinary youth of Britain were sacrificed because of the arrogant and imperialistic follies of the upper classes and political elites ... WWI is a much better metaphor for this sh*tshow

I've been reading Cornelius Ryan's A Bridge Too Far this past week, the classic account of Montgomery's utterly failed Market Garden campaign to take a crucial bridgehead over the Rhine and what struck me about reading it were the unmistakeable echoes of the current Brexit fiasco. Before the air landings even got underway, the Dutch resistance along with the Dutch senior army staff had tried vainly to warn the British that they were heading for disaster - the roads were too narrow to support the main tank assault while the landing zones were too far from their main target areas to be feasible. For their troubles the Dutch were basically told to butt out of it, what they did know about war anyway? When it all did go spectacularly t"ts up, as the Dutch had confidently forecast, how did the British react? Why, they blamed the weather of course! Nothing to do with their lack of preparation or Montgomery's supreme arrogance.

farmerval

I think there's one thing missing in uch of the analysis it's that Boris Johnson doesn't give two figs about Brexit, hard/soft/medium, orderly or not.
All he cares about is being PM. He's sold out the very few morals he may have had in pursuit of this goal.
Rock hard pro brexit cabinet and the likes of Dominic Cummings are the way he sees as his best chance to force and win an election. Nothing else matters to him. His only goal is to win an election and get 5 years as PM.
Cummings on the other hand seems to have some fairly scary opinions/ obsessions. Disappointingly the opposition in the UK is really dreadful, week after week for the last three years of Jeremy Corbin unable to score the simplest goals against Theresa May.
Cummings "brilliance" really has yet to be proven, with probably 85% of mainstream media having paved the way with unending anti EU and anti Eastern Europe invective as well as the pro remain campaign being a disaster opened the way for the referendum result.
After Alaister Darlings absolutely dreadful campaign to get Scotland to remain in the UK was successful Cameron must have thought this referendum lark was easy.

farmerval

Leroy42 wrote: »

Alex Andreou made the point on Remainiacs that it actually made quite a bit of sense this policy to threaten to No Deal. As the UK see it, they tried to negotiate with the EU but got nothing in terms of what they imagined they would get (they thought they had all the cards). They understand the weaker position they are in so more talks is a waste of time.

Why not go full out on No Deal, act like a complete nut case. Alex explains it as a game of chicken with BRexit throwing the steering wheel out the window so the EU has no choice but to swerve to avoid a crash. He also says that it is also true that the EU is a tank compared to the UK Morris Minor.

But seen from that POV it actually starts to make sense. Basically what have they got to lose at this point. As many point out, if the EU doesn't blink then the UK will more than likely get the WA, in one form or another, offered to them by the EU regardless in order to control the mayhem. So it is worth the risk (to them) to try.

I believe that's why the cabinet make up is as it is, there's zero voices of reason there, everyone is singing the same suicide song, this is really taking it to the very very edge of playing chicken.
The really big issue fro Johnson will be the Brexit party, he cannot under any circumstance have them score seats in a GE. If he does he is legitimising them. this the Big Nr 1 issue for the Tories. How to engineer an election where the Tories are the biggest baddest EU bashing party out there.

dresden8

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I've been reading Cornelius Ryan's A Bridge Too Far this past week, the classic account of Montgomery's utterly failed Market Garden campaign to take a crucial bridgehead over the Rhine and what struck me about reading it were the unmistakeable echoes of the current Brexit fiasco. Before the air landings even got underway, the Dutch resistance along with the Dutch senior army staff had tried vainly to warn the British that they were heading for disaster - the roads were too narrow to support the main tank assault while the landing zones were too far from their main target areas to be feasible. For their troubles the Dutch were basically told to butt out of it, what they did know about war anyway? When it all did go spectacularly t"ts up, as the Dutch had confidently forecast, how did the British react? Why, they blamed the weather of course! Nothing to do with their lack of preparation or Montgomery's supreme arrogance.

Actually they blamed the Poles. Which was handy as they were busy selling them out to the Soviets.

J Mysterio

So... Here is a very... 'confusing' tweet.
Not sure if this man knows that Ireland is in fact an idependent, sovereign country.

https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1159489584948043777

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

So... Here is a very... 'confusing' tweet.
Not sure if this man knows that Ireland is in fact an idependent, sovereign country.

https://twitter.com/AngusMacNeilSNP/status/1159489584948043777

It's not that confusing.. in fact I don't see what the issue is

ambro25

reslfj wrote: »

(...)

We may in fact start a discussion on points the EU27 might or even should demand as extras from Little-UK following a 'No Deal' Brexit?

The first 3 are real easy:

1. Brexit bill (upfront, not actuarial: going by Johnson's commitments of late, the Tories have a *big* war chest after the last 9 years)
2. Citizens' rights (status quo ante basis, no "settled status"...ties up with 6 below afterwards)
3. RoI/NI backstop (unconditional, no PD sweetener pill)

I'd suggest that they top that up with-

4. Compensate the EU 27 for resources engaged in any and all contingency planning directly attributable to UK government positions in period, including 100% EU agencies relocation costs
5. Contribute to the EU budget for keeping the indirect benefit of these EU contingency measures (pay for priviledge of being kept alive, not quite 'rescued')
6. Full FoM for EU27 (new arrivals post-Brexit, standard EU-like registration only, and free of course)

and for extra trolling points (God level)-

7. Schengen (no need for EU membership for that)

...for starters.

Then we can look at sectorial salami-slicing in the EU27's interest. Get in there before the US, and why not.

J Mysterio

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not that confusing.. in fact I don't see what the issue is

On reflection, maybe it's not so bad.

Bigus

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK economy is shrinking with the value of the pound approaching the value of the Euro.

All reported on by the Telegraph, one of the leading cheerleaders for their employee, BJ.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/08/09/markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-ftse-red-growth/

The Dailymail comments on the gdp figures and the falling pound from the Brexiteers is mainly blaming the Remainers for not getting them out soon enough, aswell as devious unknowns pushing up the Euro !

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not that confusing.. in fact I don't see what the issue is

Well on one level, he could be confusing Ni with ROI. Or referring to a united Ireland. On another level, assuming he's not doing that, then why the hell single out Ireland? And why being in favour of an independent sovereign government (what is that anyway?) should be worthy of note. Might as well say they are in favour of the French government in Paris. Just strange imo.

Spanish Eyes

I may be deluded, probably am, but the fact that the Opposition (Labour) is silent seems to me to be treacherous now.

It is the perfect storm and Dominic Cummings knows it now, the de facto PM that he is.

I just do not know what is going on in the Labour Party now at all. Can anyone explain why they appear to be ineffectual, and why no one is prepared to sort it out?

I am sure there are wiser people than me out there. But Labour giving Johnson/Cummings a free pass on this is something else.

lawred2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well on one level, he could be confusing Ni with ROI. Or referring to a united Ireland. On another level, assuming he's not doing that, then why the hell single out Ireland? And why being in favour of an independent sovereign government (what is that anyway?) should be worthy of note. Might as well say they are in favour of the French government in Paris. Just strange imo.

well I suppose because France didn't ever seek independence from the United Kingdom...

It's a bit clunky admittedly but I kinda get what he was trying to say

prawnsambo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I may be deluded, probably am, but the fact that the Opposition (Labour) is silent seems to me to be treacherous now.

It is the perfect storm and Dominic Cummings knows it now, the de facto PM that he is.

I just do not know what is going on in the Labour Party now at all. Can anyone explain why they appear to be ineffectual, and why no one is prepared to sort it out?

I am sure there are wiser people than me out there. But Labour giving Johnson/Cummings a free pass on this is something else.

They are pinning everything on an election. It's been that way for ever. It's also gone past delusion to think they can win it. The electorate has moved on and the remain and leave voters are now looking elsewhere. Magic Grandpa is not going to save them and they know it. You can only sit on the fence so long.

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

well I suppose because France didn't ever seek independence from the United Kingdom...

It's a bit clunky admittedly but I kinda get what he was trying to say

A bit? If he'd said the US government it probably couldn't have been more irrelevant. Just another hundred or so years out of date. Is it even a thing to be in favour of hundred year old independence struggles?

amacca

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I may be deluded, probably am, but the fact that the Opposition (Labour) is silent seems to me to be treacherous now.

It is the perfect storm and Dominic Cummings knows it now, the de facto PM that he is.

I just do not know what is going on in the Labour Party now at all. Can anyone explain why they appear to be ineffectual, and why no one is prepared to sort it out?

I am sure there are wiser people than me out there. But Labour giving Johnson/Cummings a free pass on this is something else.

I wouldn't want to takeover such a mess at this juncture....perhaps there is an element of fence sitting/shadow boxing going on there.....maybe mcdonnell etc happy to let Corbyn be a caretaker for a while...see if momentum builds for a second referendum or even a final ruling out of a no deal withdrawal as matters start to come to a head now that johnson and co are saying and doing as much as possible to convince all and sundry that no deal is more than just a possibility......

Its perilous to be at the helm now, the "opposition" won't take it in the neck as much as those in control when the **** hits the fan despite everyones criticism of their performance.......toxic elements in the media aside most business people and those with an ounce of sense etc must surely know the realities of what is being proposed ...if this goes bad which it surely will if a crash out occurs Id be surprised if the tories didn't suffer huge losses.......unless they control all the media outlets/message

So maybe the thinking is let them have their poison chalice and then pick up the pieces after this runaway train has derailed or attempt to board the train as momentum for alternatives (ruling out no deal/2nd referendum etc becomes more apparent and they can back that horse - current tories have plumped firmly for tally ho death or glory it seems....anyone getting on the train or attempting to stop the insanity at this juncture will be part of the train wreck or run over.

Capt'n Midnight

On the whole tax avoidance thing.

Tax from certain UK residents was down £2bn last year. It's just one more item that eats into the "saving" of nearly £9bn in EU contributions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49279174

The number of wealthy residents who pay no UK tax on their offshore accounts has fallen to its lowest level ever, according to Treasury figures.

Last year, there were 78,300 non-domiciled taxpayers, or "non-doms", in the UK compared with 98,500 in 2016-17.

And the £9.5bn they paid to the taxman in 2016/17 fell to £7.5bn last year.

International law firm Pinsent Masons said the reason was Brexit and nervousness over the chances of a Labour government.