Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Lucy8080 wrote: »

I get a good giggle out of the phrase " they need us more than we need them" in relation to exports.

U.k. exports to the E.U. in 2018 made up 46% of "their" total exports. Admittedly they imported just over 50% of "their" imports from the E.U.

But, not one nation in the E.U. is exporting 46% of their products to The U.K. I think Ireland is around 13% exports to the U.K. (could be less).

Just one example of the sleight of hand tactics "Brexit Politicians" have been foisting on the British public.

It is kind of sad to hear some callers to British radio stations assert this "phrase" with wholehearted belief.

"we buy more from them than they buy from us guv., they'll blink and no mistake, two world wars and one world cup. I blame the fackin' Irish ,bless their little spud munchin' cotton socks"

They're completely brainwashed. They are repeating stuff they have read in the Daily Express and they've heard the Brexit Party say as if it's absolute indisputable fact

Normally the opinions of the most stupid section of society wouldn't even be listened to, but Britain has handed over the keys of the country to them.

maynooth_rules

Really the Daily Express, Telegraph, Mail and Express have so much to answer for when no deal happens. They have fed utter bollox and noncense for years to their mainly ill informed readers, and got us to the point where a decent chunk of the British population view Brexit as a religion that can't be questioned. Its just incredible to watch, and is no longer funny.

History will remember this group of Conservatives, and add Corbyn to that list, very very poorly.

murphaph

If there are further "we're going over the cliff" messages from No. 10 this weekend I'd expect the pound to reach parity with the euro next week. The trend is established now. People are slowly accepting the likelihood of no deal and selling their sterling. If it hits parity panic could set in and we could see a run on the pound.

Borderhopper

Popeleo wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Feelings, belief and Blitz Spirit I guess

And jobs. Lots of jobs.

I suspect their fallback would be to export our old product, people.

Bigus

murphaph wrote: »

If there are further "we're going over the cliff" messages from No. 10 this weekend I'd expect the pound to reach parity with the euro next week. The trend is established now. People are slowly accepting the likelihood of no deal and selling their sterling. If it hits parity panic could set in and we could see a run on the pound.

Perhaps the tactic is to beat the Spanish and all the other European tourist destinations into submission with low spending British showing them they need us more then we need them.

Borderhopper

Geuze wrote: »

Yes, a sharp drop again tonight.

But not a record low.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-gbp.en.html

10yr low = 94.08 pence, 13-Oct 2009

Low since EMU started = 97.855p, 29-Dec 2008

Was this not in part due to the introduction of QE in the UK? Just saying, this previous low was something under their control, whereas the current slide is in the hands of the markets, which are not known for their regards for national economies?

murphaph

Borderhopper wrote: »

Was this not in part due to the introduction of QE in the UK? Just saying, this previous low was something under their control, whereas the current slide is in the hands of the markets, which are not known for their regards for national economies?

Yes. What's happening now is out of their control financially. They have political control and could halt and reverse the slide by revoking A50 but we know how likely that is.

No amount of fiscal policy or intervention by the BoE can mitigate against the fundamental error of leaving the world's most successful trading bloc with absolutely no plan.

Up until now the markets (basically human beings) have not believed that a country like the UK would intentionally damage itself in this way. People are starting to think it will actually happen now.

Borderhopper

Do they even have real political control, though? It might be an illusion, as they government at the minute is beholden to so many vested interests, that a sensible course of action is nearly impossible right now.

There seems to be a sentiment that Boris has a plan, might not be one we like, but he has a plan. I’m of the strong suspicion that he has no actual plan at all, not one grounded in reality. I think he might actually be closer to Churchill than anyone would like to admit, as his idol’s actions both before PM and throughout the course of the war showed that he didn’t have much of a plan either.

If he’s banking on an election, good luck with that. Elections are chancy at the best of times, and sometimes the tree you cut doesn’t fall the way you want. A crash out is inevitable at this point-the perfect storm.

MrMusician18

murphaph wrote: »

If there are further "we're going over the cliff" messages from No. 10 this weekend I'd expect the pound to reach parity with the euro next week. The trend is established now. People are slowly accepting the likelihood of no deal and selling their sterling. If it hits parity panic could set in and we could see a run on the pound.

There is no definition of what constitutes a run on the pound although a large, crisis precipitating 1 day fall seems to be the general consensus.

I'd say we're witnessing a slow run, but it will need to push through all time lows before it's properly recognised for the crisis this is.

briany

Borderhopper wrote: »

If he’s banking on an election, good luck with that. Elections are chancy at the best of times, and sometimes the tree you cut doesn’t fall the way you want. A crash out is inevitable at this point-the perfect storm.

There are 3 options at this point - Deal, no-deal and revoke. We've passed the deadline for a GE or referendum being meaningful.

A deal would require a pretty serious pivot in rhetoric and also a degree of cooperation across the HoC. It would also most likely be a deal that is pretty much what's on the table now and need a bit of rewording to sell it.

Revocation would cause a wave of public anger like we've not seen in the UK in decades. It depends on how much of that Twitter outrage translates into physical action. At the least, the next GE would be a sort of political Red Wedding.

No deal would cause anger, too, but the British public have been warned it's coming for so long that it wouldn't be the bucket of cold water that revoke would. Plus there wouldn't be as much time or opportunity for outrage as no deal catapults the UK into an immediate situation of managing the economic fallout.

prawnsambo

Borderhopper wrote: »

Do they even have real political control, though? It might be an illusion, as they government at the minute is beholden to so many vested interests, that a sensible course of action is nearly impossible right now.

There seems to be a sentiment that Boris has a plan, might not be one we like, but he has a plan. I’m of the strong suspicion that he has no actual plan at all, not one grounded in reality. I think he might actually be closer to Churchill than anyone would like to admit, as his idol’s actions both before PM and throughout the course of the war showed that he didn’t have much of a plan either.

If he’s banking on an election, good luck with that. Elections are chancy at the best of times, and sometimes the tree you cut doesn’t fall the way you want. A crash out is inevitable at this point-the perfect storm.

The main problem for Johnson right now is his wafer-thin majority and dependence on the DUP. Every vote in the HoC will be on a knife edge and there's a very strong chance that Tory rebels and/or ERG hardliners could bring his government down. So he has to take the initiative and do it himself. Right now, we're seeing him and his cabinet pander to the leave voters on an industrial scale. He's clearly trying to steal the BP's clothes and consolidate the leave constituency behind the Tories. It seems to be effective and as strategies go, not the worst one (from his pov). Historically GEs tend to sideline the fringe parties (UKIP never really got a look in), so all he really has to do is look more brexity than the BP.

The only wrinkle in that strategy is that there will be a revolt from moderate Tories. I can see a fair few deselections coming and consequently defections to the LibDems. Whether they can win seats will depend on the constituencies concerned and the personal vote that these Tories could command. The strategy could work, but on the other hand, each vote won from the BP could be another lost to the LibDems. And Labour haven't gone away either.

listermint

Ever get the impression that there are various countries around the globe who are paying lip service to the UKs trade negotiators talking about being ready at the door etc etc but can't wait to put the boot in.

I get the real impression that Australia and Canada are two such countries and he UKs negotiators won't know what hit them after Oct.

There will be alot of "well things have changed" conversations.

ancapailldorcha

listermint wrote: »

Ever get the impression that there are various countries around the globe who are paying lip service to the UKs trade negotiators talking about being ready at the door etc etc but can't wait to put the boot in.

I get the real impression that Australia and Canada are two such countries and he UKs negotiators won't know what hit them after Oct.

There will be alot of "well things have changed" conversations.

Ok. All I can give you here is my word but a chap I know in the DoIT has told me that the Ukraine is agitating to renegotiate the terms of the trade deal the UK wanted to roll over which was originally negotiated on the UK's behalf by the UK.

That's the Ukraine. Then there are Australia and Canada as you've stated who will be out for their own interests. Above those are the huge markets of countries like India, Indonesia & Brazil.

listermint

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Ok. All I can give you here is my word but a chap I know in the DoIT has told me that the Ukraine is agitating to renegotiate the terms of the trade deal the UK wanted to roll over which was originally negotiated on the UK's behalf by the UK.

That's the Ukraine. Then there are Australia and Canada as you've stated who will be out for their own interests. Above those are the huge markets of countries like India, Indonesia & Brazil.

The tables have turned conversations will start in earnest I'm sure they have a load of past experiences with UK negotiators to throw back at them.

Borderhopper

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

listermint wrote: »

Ever get the impression that there are various countries around the globe who are paying lip service to the UKs trade negotiators talking about being ready at the door etc etc but can't wait to put the boot in.

I get the real impression that Australia and Canada are two such countries and he UKs negotiators won't know what hit them after Oct.

There will be alot of "well things have changed" conversations.

Ok. All I can give you here is my word but a chap I know in the DoIT has told me that the Ukraine is agitating to renegotiate the terms of the trade deal the UK wanted to roll over which was originally negotiated on the UK's behalf by the UK.

That's the Ukraine. Then there are Australia and Canada as you've stated who will be out for their own interests. Above those are the huge markets of countries like India, Indonesia & Brazil.

Nothing personal, just business. And, to be fair, nothing the UK haven’t done to other parties in the past. Ourselves and Hong Kong spring to mind.

McMurphy

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Seth Brundle

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Depends who youre booking with but if it is a UK based company, will they still be there when you want to travel?

ancapailldorcha

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

McMurphy

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Depends who youre booking with but if it is a UK based company, will they still be there when you want to travel?

Possibly booking direct from the hotel (Spanish)

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

Ireland.

I might actually end up booking a place this morning with a free cancellation policy, and then look at prices again if things go one way or the other.

I'll tell you what, it's starting to become a reality now, and some of the papers (and I'm talking Irish press) discussing how bad things are in the UK politically wise is a bit worrying now.

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

Off topic.

If you are travelling, you get a better deal if you pre-load your credit card with the full amount you are going to need. There are no charges for drawing from the ATM (as your CC is in credit and you are getting your own money back). If travelling in Euroland, convert the money and get a € CC. The best currency rate is generally by using your CC for all purchase where possible.

Hope that helps.

/Off topic.

Jizique

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

Weapons.
Loads of shiny weapons to despots.
And coal, possibly.
And jam

First Up

Jizique wrote:

Weapons. Loads of shiny weapons to despots. And coal, possibly. And jam

No, there won't be jam because the East Europeans who used to pick the fruit will be gone home.

BonnieSituation

Jizique wrote: »

Weapons.
Loads of shiny weapons to despots.
And coal, possibly.
And jam

Despots of Jam?

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Are you living in the UK?

I was in Florence a few months after the referendum and was horrified when I was getting only about 98c for every £1 from the ATM's there. Obviously, there's rates and fees involved but it was still a shock.

Further to what Sam has said above grab something like Revolut as well for such trips. I use it all the time for Sterling transactions or trips north.

Borderhopper

Jizique wrote: »

J Mysterio wrote: »

What are they going to export?

Weapons.
Loads of shiny weapons to despots.
And coal, possibly.
And jam

Both weapons and jam require imports. Especially the type of weapons despots want to buy

Shelga

I realise a second referendum seems to have completely fallen out of the discussion of potential solutions, and a GE is far more likely, but what about, as I heard someone (I think it was a Labour MP but not sure about this) a public vote where the only two options are no deal or remain?

Risky? Yes, very- but it seems no deal is extremely likely at this point anyway, so what do they have to lose. I also think now that sterling is plummeting and average British people are feeling it in their pockets, a higher remain vote is likely.

It also is the only option that would decisively shut up Farage and his cronies- after all, they say no deal is The One True Brexit, so if the result is 60/40 in favour of Remain, when faced with these two options, how can they ever say again that there is a decisive mandate for Brexit?

I never would have thought any government would ever put no deal on a ballot paper, but when the stakes are this big, you have to do something drastic.

*edit* and yes it would be divisive, but personally I'd prefer it to a GE where both main parties are dire beyond belief.

54and56

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

I've been considering booking 2020 holidays now to avail of the early prices, but looking at how sterling is tanking, I'm wondering if I'd be better holding off for a bit yet?

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Wishful thinking perhaps?

I'm doing exactly this for 2020. The holiday company I book with has .ie, .co.uk, .de etc websites all selling the same French campsite holidays and I'm hoping they will pare their UK pricing to the bone in order to keep that (substantial) part of their business thus allowing me to book and pay via Sterling. If there is a no deal Brexit I'm guessing end of Jan/Feb should be a good time to reap my own personal Brexit dividend!!!

54and56

The reality of Brexit is beginning.

https://twitter.com/EuropeanPenguin/status/1159910714712178688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1159910714712178688&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fcodq1r%3Fresponsive%3Dtrue%26is_nightmode%3Dtrue

Professor Moriarty

54&56 wrote: »

I'm doing exactly this for 2020. The holiday company I book with has .ie, .co.uk, .de etc websites all selling the same French campsite holidays and I'm hoping they will pare their UK pricing to the bone in order to keep that (substantial) part of their business thus allowing me to book and pay via Sterling. If there is a no deal Brexit I'm guessing end of Jan/Feb should be a good time to reap my own personal Brexit dividend!!!

You might want to factor in the odds on a No Deal Brexit on 31st October. You can get No Deal at even money today.

Seth Brundle

Shelga wrote: »

I realise a second referendum seems to have completely fallen out of the discussion of potential solutions, and a GE is far more likely, but what about, as I heard someone (I think it was a Labour MP but not sure about this) a public vote where the only two options are no deal or remain?

Risky? Yes, very- but it seems no deal is extremely likely at this point anyway, so what do they have to lose. I also think now that sterling is plummeting and average British people are feeling it in their pockets, a higher remain vote is likely.

It also is the only option that would decisively shut up Farage and his cronies- after all, they say no deal is The One True Brexit, so if the result is 60/40 in favour of Remain, when faced with these two options, how can they ever say again that there is a decisive mandate for Brexit?

I never would have thought any government would ever put no deal on a ballot paper, but when the stakes are this big, you have to do something drastic.

*edit* and yes it would be divisive, but personally I'd prefer it to a GE where both main parties are dire beyond belief.

The political landscape there is so toxic currently that it would not be an impartial referendum.
The Brits need an impartial referendum commission to inform people of the different impacts from each voting option in the same way that our Ref Comm does.
Without the voters being correctly informed, the whole event would be pointless and would probably end up with a no deal crash out.

Bit cynical

I presume these suggestions are being addressed at the UK parliament?