Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

johnnyskeleton

Sitting in traffic on a bus this afternoon, reading the last few days musings by Brexiteers on how Ireland is foolish, arrogant, trying to trap Britain etc, I started wondering:

What if Ireland was leaving the EU and trying to find a solution to the border?

In such a scenario, I am as certain as could be that the UK would insist on a backstop type arrangement as a minimjm, and would probably try to go further. They would hiss and moan and rail against the sky about Ireland being unreasonable, just as they are now.

I say this because its clear to most here that no matter what happens, the British political establishment will try anger and bluster to try to get their way.

Also, I think it would be an interesting question to put to Brexiteers as to what they would do if Ireland was leaving, though they would probably lie and say that they would agree to what they are asking for at the moment!

murphaph

Borderhopper wrote: »

Both weapons and jam require imports. Especially the type of weapons despots want to buy

I'm guessing UK based arms manufacturers will price in dollars and so import prices are less of an issue and they can pay less for their workforce who will of course be paid in sterling.

Seth Brundle

Bit cynical wrote: »

I presume these suggestions are being addressed at the UK parliament?

Nope, they're too busy enjoying their well earned holidays...
https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

20silkcut

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Sitting in traffic on a bus this afternoon, reading the last few days musings by Brexiteers on how Ireland is foolish, arrogant, trying to trap Britain etc, I started wondering:

What if Ireland was leaving the EU and trying to find a solution to the border?

In such a scenario, I am as certain as could be that the UK would insist on a backstop type arrangement as a minimjm, and would probably try to go further. They would hiss and moan and rail against the sky about Ireland being unreasonable, just as they are now.

I say this because its clear to most here that no matter what happens, the British political establishment will try anger and bluster to try to get their way.

Also, I think it would be an interesting question to put to Brexiteers as to what they would do if Ireland was leaving, though they would probably lie and say that they would agree to what they are asking for at the moment!

In 1920 they sent in the Black and Tans to stop us leaving.

In 1969 they sent in 30,000 troops to protect their union so I think we know the answer.
They would most definitely not make things easy for us and would create the hardest border possible between us.

Bit cynical

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Nope, they're too busy enjoying their well earned holidays...
https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/

True they are not in session at present but they will be.

It is just that when people suggest a second referendum or whatever, who are they imagining carrying out that suggestion?

If people think the UK parliament are wondering how to avoid a no deal brexit, why did this same parliament collectively vote against the deal when it was presented to them?

CelticRambler

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

In my mind (for all that's worth:)) surely if sterling is going to reach parity with the euro (and possibly even fall below it) - then the cost of a foreign holiday to stg earners is going to become phenomenally expensive.

You would have to imagine that, in an effort to still be able to still attract the Brits, holiday operators will lower their euro prices to attract them?

Only if the tour operator caters exclusively to the British market (and why would you want to spend your holiday with a load of Brits? :pac: ) Here in France, the number of British holiday makers is already noticeably less, partly due to Brexit, partly due to the heatwave/"good enough" weather back home.

The heatwave wasn't foreseen, but the impact of Brexit was, and hotels and EU-based tour operators have been taking steps to mitigate the effect of a Brexit-related downturn on their industry. Premium destinations will still attract well-off Brits who'll pay and do whatever to get their visas and pet healthchecks sorted out; bargain basement destinations operating on razor-thin margins will simply go out of business; in between, you'll see precious little change.

Shelga

Bit cynical wrote: »

True they are not in session at present but they will be.

It is just that when people suggest a second referendum or whatever, who are they imagining carrying out that suggestion?

If people think the UK parliament are wondering how to avoid a no deal brexit, why did this same parliament collectively vote against the deal when it was presented to them?

If parliament has voted against the only deal on offer, the only alternative is no deal. When parliament is stuck, surely the logical next step is to go back to the people. I don’t see how the loon Brexiters can argue if the only Brexit option on the ballot is the most insane one, preferred by them.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

True they are not in session at present but they will be.

It is just that when people suggest a second referendum or whatever, who are they imagining carrying out that suggestion?

If people think the UK parliament are wondering how to avoid a no deal brexit, why did this same parliament collectively vote against the deal when it was presented to them?

Ideology, Europhobia, Europhilia, intra-party politics and interparty politics.

brickster69

Had to laugh at some of the posts about the UK going into recession. Remember when the UK in Q1 had an unexpected rise in GDP. Everyone was saying it was only because of stockpiling for 31/3.
Now it has fallen 0.2% for the first time in 36 months, the UK is being attacked by a swarm of locusts.

No one has suggested maybe stockpiling in Q1 was the reason for the fall in Q2. Another rise in Q3 is a certainty again due to stockpiling for 31/10.

Not one word about Germany's .2% fall also i notice.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Ideology, Europhobia, Europhilia, intra-party politics and interparty politics.

If that is so, and assuming we think that the solution needs to be delivered by the UK parliament, why do we think that they are open to suggestions as a group?

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

If that is so, and assuming we think that the solution needs to be delivered by the UK parliament, why do we think that they are open to suggestions?

Because the situation is so fluid and circumstances have changed utterly since the last WA vote.

10000maniacs

Borderhopper wrote: »

Was this not in part due to the introduction of QE in the UK? Just saying, this previous low was something under their control, whereas the current slide is in the hands of the markets, which are not known for their regards for national economies?

Reducing the feasible level of interest rates that is currently at 0.75% means that when the inevitable Brexit recession hits, the Bank Of England will have little scope for doing very much about it apart from printing more money.
You can only print so much money to run to stand still, but some economists have suggested negative interest rates could be the norm in the coming years in a no deal scenario.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

Had to laugh at some of the posts about the UK going into recession. Remember when the UK in Q1 had an unexpected rise in GDP. Everyone was saying it was only because of stockpiling for 31/3.
Now it has fallen 0.2% for the first time in 36 months, the UK is being attacked by a swarm of locusts.

No one has suggested maybe stockpiling in Q1 was the reason for the fall in Q2. Another rise in Q3 is a certainty again due to stockpiling for 31/10.

Not one word about Germany's .2% fall also i notice.

Official government predictions state that Britain is going into recession. That recession will be greatly exacerbated by crashing out. Why not start a thread on Germany's economy.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Because the situation is so fluid and circumstances have changed utterly since the last WA vote.

But parliament, through their vote against the deal brought about this situation. Although not everything could be predicted, it would have been generally known that voting against the deal would have rendered Theresa May's position untenable resulting in a leadership election. And, although the result of that election could not have been predicted exactly, Johnson would always have been among the frontrunners. Yet they voted against the deal, the deal we are saying is the only deal possible. And now we expect them to exhibit foresight as a group?

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

No one has suggested maybe stockpiling in Q1 was the reason for the fall in Q2. Another rise in Q3 is a certainty again due to stockpiling for 31/10.

So flatten it out over the two quarters and get a total of 0.3%. Not very pretty either. Your forecast for Q3 is pure guesswork based on nothing. Because if you read the assessments, there's no spare capacity for further stockpiling.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

But parliament, through their vote against the deal brought about this situation. Although not everything could be predicted, it would have been generally known that voting against the deal would have rendered Theresa May's position untenable resulting in a leadership election. Although the result of that election could not have been predicted exactly, Johnson would always have been among the frontrunners. Yet they voted against the deal. And now we expect them to exhibit foresight as a group?

When they last voted, May was PM. It was last March. Nobody could have or should have voted on the basis that Johnson might be elected PM in July. In fact, Johnson voted for the agreement in March.

Water John

A good example of, when zealots take control is the State of Kansas in the USA. Absolutely devastated its economy. Same is going to happen in the UK. Sterling collapse is just the tip of the iceberg.

Javid says'the fundamentals are sound'. I think we in Ireland are familiar with that phrase.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

When they last voted, May was PM. It was last March. Nobody could have or should have voted on the basis that Johnson might be elected PM in July. In fact, Johnson voted for the agreement in March.

I think however it is reasonable to assume that successive rejection of the deal would eventually lead to May going and a leadership election as a consequence and most MPs would have known this. And in parliamentary circles they may not have known who would win exactly but they would have know the type of Tory likely to win and Johnson himself did rate highly among the bookies.

But even without those assumptions, if you were a parliamentarian and your goal was to bring about a no deal brexit (such as the ERG), you would have voted exactly the same as parliament voted as a whole. Obviously. How else would you vote? And the fact that remainers like Grieve as well as remainers in the Labour party are voting the same way, even better! You would have fairly justifiable contempt for those other people.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think however it is reasonable to assume that successive rejection of the deal would eventually lead to May going and a leadership election as a consequence and most MPs would have known this. And in parliamentary circles they may not have known who would win exactly but they would have know the type of Tory likely to win and Johnson himself did rate highly among the bookies.

But even without those assumptions, if you were a parliamentarian and your goal was to bring about a no deal brexit (such as the ERG), you would have voted exactly the same as parliament voted as a whole. Obviously. How else would you vote? And the fact that remainers like Grieve as well as remainers in the Labour party are voting the same way, even better! You would have fairly justifiable contempt for those other people.

I don't agree for the reasons I outlined. Some people voted according to the whip. Some for internal and external party reasons. Some because they wanted Remain. Some because they wanted a hard Brexit. These people voted on what they knew then. Nobody knew what was going to happen. May could have called an election. The DUP could have flounced. She might have lost a No Confidence vote. Anything could have happened. Hindsight is 20/20 vision.

The contempt that MPs have for each other is pushing Britain along a very dangerous path. It's polarised more now than I can ever remember.

brickster69

prawnsambo wrote: »

So flatten it out over the two quarters and get a total of 0.3%. Not very pretty either. Your forecast for Q3 is pure guesswork based on nothing. Because if you read the assessments, there's no spare capacity for further stockpiling.

You do know that the total 2019 forecast for growth for the entire Eurozone is 1.2%. Not that pretty either is it ?

Strazdas

I sense there is a fair bit more panic and alarm in the UK right now than there was in the run up to March 31. Ironically, the new hard Brexit government and Johnson's rhetoric seems to be spooking British people a lot more.

Larbre34

Strazdas wrote: »

I sense there is a fair bit more panic and alarm in the UK right now than there was in the run up to March 31. Ironically, the new hard Brexit government and Johnson's rhetoric seems to be spooking British people a lot more.

With good reason.

All bluffs should now be called. Let them crash out, let Boris take them over the edge and end the careers of himself and Gove and JRM and Farage and Cash and Hoey and Leadsom and all the rest and after the riots and the constitutional crisis, the emergency government of national unity under PM Keir Starmer and deputies Swinson and Sturgeon can sign a deal returning the UK to the SM and CU prior to rejoining the EU on a 3 year fast-track process.

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

You do know that the total 2019 forecast for growth for the entire Eurozone is 1.2%. Not that pretty either is it ?

The eurozone is a lot of countries. Kind of apples and oranges.

martingriff

Larbre34 wrote: »

With good reason.

All bluffs should now be called. Let them crash out, let Boris take them over the edge and end the careers of himself and Gove and JRM and Farage and Cash and Hoey and Leadsom and all the rest and after the riots and the constitutional crisis, the emergency government of national unity under PM Keir Starmer and deputies Swinson and Sturgeon can sign a deal returning the UK to the SM and CU prior to rejoining the EU on a 3 year fast-track process.

What will happen initially is they will blame the EU and everyone else. Loads of protests some violent between those who blame EU and the government. If the EU allow them to rejoin it be with conditions of the euro and losing some veto they had got for themselves

Capt'n Midnight

Strazdas wrote: »

I've seen people suggest that the serious effects of No Deal may well kick off before October 31st. For example, continental hauliers may decide to pull their trucks out of GB for fear of them being trapped in the country.

There is also the question of stuff that's transshipped.

Whatever about exemptions for stuff in direct transit if there's a Hard Brexit the same consideration won't be given for stuff that's only on the order books. Or hasn't started shipping yet.

Or is on a ship from China or Japan heading to Rotterdam and then being sent onwards to the UK. That stuff takes a month to 45 days to arrive. So decisions have to be made in advance.

Ships are like buses, if one's full there'll be another one in the next five - ten minutes, except it's days not minutes. And like buses the next one is probably full already.

Stop moaning ffs

What will the pound be worth come October 31st if it’s at parity with the euro now?
Will it bounce back before then does anyone know?

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

What will the pound be worth come October 31st if it’s at parity with the euro now?
Will it bounce back before then does anyone know?

It would require some good news. Very good news. Not sure anything short of revocation would reverse the trend. Although a GE might give a fillip, but only if it's to happen before B-day 3.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

There is also the question of stuff that's transshipped.

Whatever about exemptions for stuff in direct transit if there's a Hard Brexit the same consideration won't be given for stuff that's only on the order books. Or hasn't started shipping yet.

Or is on a ship from China or Japan heading to Rotterdam and then being sent onwards to the UK. That stuff takes a month to 45 days to arrive. So decisions have to be made in advance.

Ships are like buses, if one's full there'll be another one in the next five - ten minutes, except it's days not minutes. And like buses the next one is probably full already.

The talk that Johnson can hold a GE on November 1st but that nobody will have noticed the effects of No Deal is probably naive. Things would almost certainly be very chaotic in the fortnight up to October 31 and the pound will have fallen through the floor.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

The talk that Johnson can hold a GE on November 1st but that nobody will have noticed the effects of No Deal is probably naive. Things would almost certainly be very chaotic in the fortnight up to October 31 and the pound will have fallen through the floor.

Yep. If he calls an election for any date after October 31st, that's it, game over, pound collapses and exporters will actually cease trading with the UK. Not necessarily because of freight or customs issues, but because of the currency losses that could ensue. Unless they insist on being paid in euros. Up front.

Leroy42

brickster69 wrote: »

Had to laugh at some of the posts about the UK going into recession. Remember when the UK in Q1 had an unexpected rise in GDP. Everyone was saying it was only because of stockpiling for 31/3.
Now it has fallen 0.2% for the first time in 36 months, the UK is being attacked by a swarm of locusts.

No one has suggested maybe stockpiling in Q1 was the reason for the fall in Q2. Another rise in Q3 is a certainty again due to stockpiling for 31/10.

Not one word about Germany's .2% fall also i notice.

What are you talking about? The Chancellor said the fall in Q2 was because of the stockpiling in Q1!

Germany is indeed suffering, in part because of the UK carry on. So not only are they fecking themselves up they want to feck with everyone else.

So it's not good for the UK, or the EU but Brexiteers don't care. They want it and everyone has to pay the price.