Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

He could have said something like 'I won't hold a second referendum but of course I can't rule out what my successor or future PMs might do'. His arrogance was off the scale.

Exactly. That's pretty much what Cummings was saying even before the vote took place. He doesn't explicitly spell out a remain mechanism in this quote from 2016, but you don't have to travel a great distance to imply it either. Cummings may well be lauded as some sort of mad genius by some westminster insiders, but it shows you he really wasn't up against much when it came down to it.

BAGEHOT: In the event of an Out vote do you think the government would seek to hold another referendum, on the terms of Brexit?

DOMINIC CUMMINGS: I think that is a distinct possibility, yes. It’s obviously not something that we can force. We’re a campaign group. But I think it is perfectly possible that leadership candidates to replace David Cameron will say that they think there are good grounds for a new government team to offer the public a voice on what the deal looks like. And we obviously wouldn’t oppose that, if that’s what senior politicians want to offer. I think there’s a strong democratic case for it. There’s also the issue of the profound loss of trust that the establishment has suffered over the past 20-30 years. All parties have told lies about this subject, whether it’s John Major and David Cameron or Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Nick Clegg. People have repeatedly promised referendums then not held referendums. So given that, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if leadership candidates to replace Cameron said: we need a mechanism so people can have confidence in what we say.

maebee

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The chancellor of the exchequer has announced millions of 50p brexit coins are to be minted. Truly madly deeply bonkers. All of it.

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1160248095583735808?s=21

:eek: That really reads like an April Fool's joke. Unfeckinbelievable. Most of the comments are hilarious, like this one:-

In the 80s following economic reforms, the UK went from a basket case to one of the most powerful financial centres in the world. In 5 years. That's what the UK can do. And the EU is absolutely terrified of it.

The UK outside of the EU can move at a pace the EU would never ever be capable of. By 2029 the UK will be more powerful, with a GDP that would be approaching the EU. That is what they are trying to prevent. They are trying to hold back British innovation. One of the most powerful forces in the globe.

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The chancellor of the exchequer has announced millions of 50p brexit coins are to be minted. Truly madly deeply bonkers. All of it.

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1160248095583735808?s=21

There was also one planned for the 29th March. Funny how brexit just seems to eat up money without producing anything at the end. Pretty much Boris Johnson's political life story right there.

FrancieBrady

maebee wrote: »

:eek: That really reads like an April Fool's joke. Unfeckinbelievable. Most of the comments are hilarious, like this one:-

In the 80s following economic reforms, the UK went from a basket case to one of the most powerful financial centres in the world. In 5 years. That's what the UK can do. And the EU is absolutely terrified of it.

The UK outside of the EU can move at a pace the EU would never ever be capable of. By 2029 the UK will be more powerful, with a GDP that would be approaching the EU. That is what they are trying to prevent. They are trying to hold back British innovation. One of the most powerful forces in the globe.

In fairness they minted coins going into it (I think I still have a few) no surprise they will mint one going out.

lawred2

maebee wrote: »

:eek: That really reads like an April Fool's joke. Unfeckinbelievable. Most of the comments are hilarious, like this one:-

In the 80s following economic reforms, the UK went from a basket case to one of the most powerful financial centres in the world. In 5 years. That's what the UK can do. And the EU is absolutely terrified of it.

The UK outside of the EU can move at a pace the EU would never ever be capable of. By 2029 the UK will be more powerful, with a GDP that would be approaching the EU. That is what they are trying to prevent. They are trying to hold back British innovation. One of the most powerful forces in the globe.

Just imagine if that turned out to be true?

It would be great for us. We'd be on its doorstep.

It won't though. We'll be on the doorstep of a Nation tearing itself at the seams.

prawnsambo

lawred2 wrote: »

Just imagine if that turned out to be true?

It would be great for us. We'd be on its doorstep.

It won't though. We'll be on the doorstep of a Nation tearing itself at the seams.

All these imaginings draw on some past glory or other. The 1980s may as well have been in Victorian times for all the relevance they have today. Pre-internet, pre-globalisation and while the UK was protected by its EEC membership. The world is a vastly different place now and everything is mobile.

prawnsambo

In other brexit related news, the leader elect of UKIP is Richard Braine.

I'll leave you to assess the appropriateness of this selection. I believe it's absolutely perfect.

briany

UKIP is the MySpace of the Brexit world. No real reason for its continued existence.

prawnsambo

briany wrote: »

UKIP is the MySpace of the Brexit world. No real reason for its continued existence.

I agree. And no better man to lead it into oblivion than Dick Braine.

briany

prawnsambo wrote: »

I agree. And no better man to lead it into oblivion than Dick Braine.

I can already imagine all the stupid things that Dick Braine is going to say.

VinLieger

Is there realistically any chance that they dont end up with negative growth for another quarter?

steddyeddy

Dominic Cummings, one of the masterminds of Brexit and current government enforcer is revealed to have received over 250k in EU subsidies for a farm he has joint ownership of. It gets madder and madder.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/10/dominic-cummings-owns-farm-got-eu-subsidy?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3LKyT0K4Kkn4-DnjTztaxDgo5rilJ2vOUwQJ2_lzzWtdjcHx4jXjfS4FQ#Echobox=1565462863

Water John

The last time was a single dip, I think. Unlikely this time.

briany

VinLieger wrote: »

Is there realistically any chance that they dont end up with negative growth for another quarter?

They're not experiencing negative growth. They're experiencing an economic streamlining. This new lean-and-mean UK economy will be better equipped to move and react in the exciting, vibrant, opportunity-laden world of post-Brexit trade.

I can't help but expect some prominent Brexiteer to say, or to have said, something quite similar to the above.

As an aside, I find 'negative growth' to be such an odd term. I'd call it 'shrinkage', but maybe that's just me.

L1011

VinLieger wrote: »

Is there realistically any chance that they dont end up with negative growth for another quarter?

Yes. There will be replacement stockpiling. That may be enough to hold them in there.

Strazdas

briany wrote: »

They're not experiencing negative growth. They're experiencing an economic streamlining. This new lean-and-mean UK economy will be better equipped to move and react in the exciting, vibrant, opportunity-laden world of post-Brexit trade.

I can't help but expect some prominent Brexiteer to say, or to have said, something quite similar to the above.

As an aside, I find 'negative growth' to be such an odd term. I'd call it 'shrinkage', but maybe that's just me.

Some maniac in the Telegraph this week was arguing how the falling pound was great news for Britain. Even many of the readers were struggling with that one.

L1011

Strazdas wrote: »

Some maniac in the Telegraph this week was arguing how the falling pound was great news for Britain. Even many of the readers were struggling with that one.

There are people, mainly Telegraph readers and contributors, who think they are still a great exporting nation. That isn't reliant on raw material exports. And a falling Pound makes those exports more competitive

Someone may need to remind them about Thatcher and the mines.

InTheShadows

L1011 wrote: »

There are people, mainly Telegraph readers and contributors, who think they are still a great exporting nation. That isn't reliant on raw material exports. And a falling Pound makes those exports more competitive

Someone may need to remind them about Thatcher and the mines.

The UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet. They'll be grand

prawnsambo

L1011 wrote: »

Yes. There will be replacement stockpiling. That may be enough to hold them in there.

I don't think that will be the case. Afaik, all storage is pretty much full up. There have been a few reports about this issue causing problems on an ongoing basis now. So basically stockpiling is done and only normal product flows can be catered for now.

prawnsambo

InTheShadows wrote: »

The UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet. They'll be grand

Sixth the last time I looked. Must look again. Yep, slipped to seventh now.

briany

Strazdas wrote: »

Some maniac in the Telegraph this week was arguing how the falling pound was great news for Britain. Even many of the readers were struggling with that one.

Someone should tell that maniac that if it was such great news, the UK government could have deliberately devalued the Pound long ago.

Capt'n Midnight

InTheShadows wrote: »

The UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet. They'll be grand

Or 10th according to the OECD

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm

China 25 256 694.6
US 20 494 100.0
India 9 460 761.4
Japan 5 414 680.0
Germany 4 456 151.2
Russia 3 531 999.0
Indonesia 3 494 750.2
Brazil 3 237 511.6
France 3 037 360.3
United Kingdom 3 024 525.0
Italy 2 515 781.2
Mexico 2 509 672.6
Turkey 2 296 104.7
Korea 2 071 181.7

Total, Million US dollars, 2018 or latest available

prunudo

Ward J. Littell wrote: »

And how much of that was due to their membership of the EU?

They'd be no1 if it wasn't for the EU holding them back!
The more I read the more I'm amazed the whole thing is still going ahead, even more so, the current path they seem to be taking in the last number of weeks.

Leroy42

InTheShadows wrote: »

The UK is the 5th largest economy on the planet. They'll be grand

And it used to be the greatest empire. And Rome used to rule the world.

Things change.

ArmaniJeanss

I did read in the Express a few weeks ago that the strength of the Euro is actually proof that the whole shebang is crumbling. The tortured 'logic' being the Euro is only strong because the experts knows that Germany is going to abandon it and go back to DMs, so everyone is actually buying DMs not Euros.

kunst nugget

The author of that piece was saying if you bought your Euros though a German bank they reverted to DMs in the event of the Euro collapsing.

ThePanjandrum

prawnsambo wrote: »

Sixth the last time I looked. Must look again. Yep, slipped to seventh now.

Hint "Projected" means that the figures are estmated amd not actual, they are IMF ones too.

The last actul figures I saw had the UK fifth, India sixth and France seventh. The figures tend to be produced periodically to minimise short term currency fluctuations.

Sam Russell

kunst nugget wrote: »

The author of that piece was saying if you bought your Euros though a German bank they reverted to DMs in the event of the Euro collapsing.

I believe that is true. Every Euro note has a code for the issuing bank. Of course, the notes are all mixed up in circulating, so they would have to be newly issued notes.

However, most value is in bank balances, so the account would need to be in German banks, but that is not necessarily true either, as residency or being domiciled might be a factor.

Compare what happened in Cyprus and Greece in their recent bank crises.

However, if the Euro crashes, I think the relative values of the split currencies would be a small worry compared to the chaos that would be rampant.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Hint "Projected" means that the figures are estmated amd not actual, they are IMF ones too.

The last actul figures I saw had the UK fifth, India sixth and France seventh. The figures tend to be produced periodically to minimise short term currency fluctuations.

I think those have been superceded by the ones I looked at that said sixth. France had moved past the UK was the headline. It was quite a while ago, so I suspect you're giving a very old ranking.

ArmaniJeanss

kunst nugget wrote: »

The author of that piece was saying if you bought your Euros though a German bank they reverted to DMs in the event of the Euro collapsing.

Exactly.

Here's that (obviously nonsense) piece explaining the paradox of how the Euro's strength is because it's going to break up. People will get great windfalls if they have their Euros in a Frankfurt bank, sothis is maintaining it's strength even though it is failing. It was based on a speech by that renowned financial expert Yanis Varafoukis.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1156338/eu-news-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-gbp-sterling-no-deal-yanis-varoufakis-spt