Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Lackadaisical

@johnnyskeleton: Again cognitive dissonance crops up in all of their arguments.

You've all the rhetoric of "A Global Britain" that's aggressively trying to make life as uncomfortable as possible for immigrants, under a regime literally called Hostile Environment and a country that's claiming to be open to business while ripping up its deepest trade deal with the EU, utterly screwing over companies by pulling all the regulatory rugs out from under them and giving them absolutely no certainty whatsoever on any aspect of trade. It's also ripping up huge numbers of very significant trade deals with non-EU countries that it's been part of via the EU and it continues to pretend that they didn't ever exist to fulfil some kind of daft domestic political rhetoric that fabricates a total falsehood there was a dichotomy between being in the EU and being able to trade globally.

The whole thing is absolutely nuts and can do nothing other than cause severe economic damage.

I am really worried for the UK at this stage - a large part of the country didn't vote for this and they are going to be driven over the cliff by people operating on pure spin and rhetoric. There's only so far you can go with that before it has to be implemented in reality and, unlike the US, the UK does not have the scale, huge mixed economy or momentum to just sail on through the chaos.

You can only hide behind political slogans for so long. You eventually have to actually make it work and if you're basing your plans on a pack of lies and fantasy, well...

fash

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What I cant figure out is the line about not putting up a border in the event of a no deal, so there will only be a border if Ireland puts it up. Even the (relatively) smarter Brexiteers parrot this line e.g. Jacob Rees Mogg.

But I just cant see how that is compatible with taking control of their borders.

The idea seems to be to wait out Ireland, then once Ireland puts one up claim that the evil Irish clearly never cared about a border, it was clearly lies to stop Brexit, so why should they?

McGiver

J Mysterio wrote:

I will stop here before I meander too far. I realise these thoughts will prove highly objectionable to some and so I reiterate I am drawing a comparison between Brexit and the ascent of Nazism for illustrative purposes only: how can a nation take such a wayward path with such significant support? It strikes me there are many similarities.

Not objectionable at all, actually. Maybe to the British, but not anyone non British. Albeit it is somewhat speculative to compare the rise of Tory hard-right Brexit and the rise of National Socialism in 1920s Germany, I actually subscribe to the same way of thinking as yourself - Johnson is not Hitler, and Tory party are not NSDAP, but there are certainly many parallels.

The worst case scenario which may unfold from UK crash-out is as follows.

1. Disaster capitalism, deregulation, massive privatisation of the remaining public assets and services, deconstruction of the welfare state, US "vasalage" - chaos ensues, prices go up, labour regulations are gone, working class and middle class suffer. Working class get more angry.
2. Recession kicks in, unemployment rises. Working class suffers and get more angry
3. Political opportunists use the economic and social chaos to pass more authoritarian legislation given more power to the government and/or make unconstitutional moves to the same effect.
4. Political opportunists and allied media engage in propaganda where the EU is used as a scapegoat to further advance their power and to make the working class more angry. Basically, the crash-out may be portrayed as the UK version of the Versailles treaty.
-->
You end up with angry people and quasi-authoritarian government on a slippery slope spiralling towards authoritarianism. And then it could really resemble Hitler.

So current situation is quite far away from Hitler of course , but the HMG & Tory actions are now setting conditions for it to slide into Hitleresque state under certain circumstances.

Enzokk

fash wrote: »

The idea seems to be to wait out Ireland, then once Ireland puts one up claim that the evil Irish clearly never cared about a border, it was clearly lies to stop Brexit, so why should they?

That is a plan, but they will have lots of trouble on the other border way before we start worrying about the border here. Their hand will surely be forced by food shortages and tailbacks on the M20 before any pressure from the EU is put on us regarding the border.

briany

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What I cant figure out is the line about not putting up a border in the event of a no deal, so there will only be a border if Ireland puts it up. Even the (relatively) smarter Brexiteers parrot this line e.g. Jacob Rees Mogg.

But I just cant see how that is compatible with taking control of their borders.

Re: the Taoiseach meeting the Prime Minister, Im guessing he will just restate what has been said before, maybe with some future relationship talk. But the ourpose of meeting is purely goodwill, for Ireland to say at least we tried. I cant see anything else coming of it

As I said before, I think 'taking control of our borders', is code for "keep the Poles, Romanians, 'Refugees', Roma and Blacks out", or at least to stop any more getting in. It's really about pulling up the drawbridge to the continent and turning the English channel into something of a moat. I don't know if Brexit voters considered the Irish border, but my suspicion is that they got 'Channel Tunnel vision' on the matter, rendering the Irish border an irrelevance anyway.

Maybe a lot of arch-Brexiteers believe that those who used to try and get to the UK will try and get to Ireland instead, and when Ireland is up to its neck in migrants, the UK can sit there laughing. Or maybe they think that even if a few brown people do cross over, the UK can judiciously throw them back out, once found, without that pesky EU tapping them on the shoulder saying weird stuff about human rights, or whatever. Perhaps they could even throw those illegals directly into the sea.

Strazdas

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What I cant figure out is the line about not putting up a border in the event of a no deal, so there will only be a border if Ireland puts it up. Even the (relatively) smarter Brexiteers parrot this line e.g. Jacob Rees Mogg.

But I just cant see how that is compatible with taking control of their borders.

Re: the Taoiseach meeting the Prime Minister, Im guessing he will just restate what has been said before, maybe with some future relationship talk. But the ourpose of meeting is purely goodwill, for Ireland to say at least we tried. I cant see anything else coming of it

It's totally disingenuous. They know full well that SM rules mean that there must be a hard border between the EU and a non aligned third country, but are trying to claim that if one goes up post-Brexit "It's nothing to do with us Guv, we didn't put up a border".

Anyone putting forward this argument is clearly not acting in good faith.

BonnieSituation

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Well, I've been asked "is there a sea between the North and South of Ireland".
I've had a UK company send my phone number to a US company as +44 353 21 555 XXXX. The same company in the states figured it out, and asked me "Are you sure the address is Cork T23 XXXX, United Kingdom.. we didn't think it was..." I've dealt with tourists who were shocked to discover that £ sterling aren't accepted in Cork.

The one I regularly get is people demanding to be able to pay by BACS rather than IBAN and not accepting that I want payment in Euro not Sterling, as per the invoice and agreement.

I also had "I thought it was the same country, you have 3 pin plugs!"

Generally the level of general ignorance about the geography is mind-boggling, but I mean it seems to apply to their own internal geography too.

The aspect that shocks me most is the cognitive dissonance that allows them to disown 19th century Irish history, as if we just ran the country into the ground all by ourselves. Even reading a book that referred to "Irish refugees fleeing the famine to Britain." when at the time Ireland was part of the UK and they were simply fleeing from a UK region that had been so mismanaged (by their government) that people were literally starving. Every one of the Irish who fled to the US in the 19th century in starving circumstances were British citizens/subjects and were departing from the UK. An independent Ireland didn't exist at the time.

Nobody talks about Irish independence as the partial dissolution of the UK, which it was.
Nobody mentions that they shelled and burnt their own cities i.e. Dublin and Cork.

Also, they seem to think Northern Ireland's not part of the UK when it is causing any kind of turmoil it's suddenly "Ireland" and when anyone suggests that it might leave it's "the UK.." When you look at it objectively, almost the entire 'troubles' occurred in the UK (with the notable exceptions of the Dublin and Monaghan bombings), the entire conflict occurred in Northern Ireland (a part of the UK) and the major atrocities that were committed beyond that were mostly in England. Yet, somehow it's seen as somehow our problem!?!

Whether you've a nationalist or unionist outlook, the cognitive dissonance and selective blindness in British circles is baffling at times.

It's very much a case of "those who don't know their own history are doomed to repeat it."
I think the UK absolutely needs to take ownership of its past here. I'm not saying they should wallow in it, but they should know it in much the same way as they know about the order of Tudor kings in huge detail.

Excellent post.

It must be highlighted at every turn that the Troubles were a Civil War in their jurisdiction. The border is a British border in Ireland.

It's too easy to constantly dismiss Irish issues as "over there" when they've almost all been caused by British policies.

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Excellent post.

It must be highlighted at every turn that the Troubles were a Civil War in their jurisdiction. The border is a British border in Ireland.

It's too easy to constantly dismiss Irish issues as "over there" when they've almost all been caused by British policies.

There is an old saying: The Irish can never forget their history while the English can never remember theirs.

Kermit.de.frog

Ireland tells Boris Johnson there will be no backstop renegotiation


...

Johnson will meet the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, for the first time at a G7 meeting in Biarritz at the end of this month. In an interview with an Austrian newspaper over the weekend, Juncker said “the British would be the big losers” in a no deal Brexit. “They pretend it’s not like that, but it will be”.

From the Guardian

BonnieSituation

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There is an old saying: The Irish can never forget their history while the English can never remember theirs.

I know that saying well and Brexit makes you only more aware of it. They need to be "learnt".

trellheim

I know that saying well and Brexit makes you only more aware of it. They need to be "learnt".

What precedent is there for that ? in all seriousness .

If Johnson has agreed to meet the Taoiseach I expect a charm offensive with some type of Damocles sword fairly soon. You all think I am doom-and-gloom on this but I think it will happen.

( anyone remember some brit minister going "Get Me Kenny" referring to the Taoiseach , that went down well ). Watch the dialogue

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

It is a fair point to say that when large sectors of the population see themselves as neglected by the leadership that they will gravitate towards a charismatic leader, that is true of Trump and other world leaders who havve played the nationalistic card, it is not true of Johnson though as he was selected by members of the conservative party and not the general population as a whole, he was not elected.

If you want to use a historical reference, Mussolini's ascent to power is a closer analogy as he was also selected as leader without a popular vote.

Mussolini is a better analogy alright. Italy were on the winning side of WW1 and full members of the international club that held sway afterwards, but they felt agreived, spured on by nationalistic journalism, that they had not gotten what they deserved in the post war settlement. Mussolini used that sence of agrievement to built a populist movement that took root mainly becasue liberal mainstream politics was too incompetant to govern the country effictivly and too riven by internal factionalism to oppose Fascism. The mainstream allowed Mussolini in because they saw him as a way to get ahead themselves and he always made sure to allow himself be seen as all things to all people so that anyone could project their desires onto him. By the end the hollowed out core of mainstream Italian politics came to believe that the Italian people deserved no better than to be ruled by a dictator, just as I am sure that there are those in the UK now who think that the Britain that allowed itself to fall to the Brexiteers deserves a no-deal Brexit.

Ben Done

trellheim wrote: »

What precedent is there for that ? in all seriousness .

If Johnson has agreed to meet the Taoiseach I expect a charm offensive with some type of Damocles sword fairly soon. You all think I am doom-and-gloom on this but I think it will happen.

( anyone remember some brit minister going "Get Me Kenny" referring to the Taoiseach , that went down well ). Watch the dialogue

What Sword of Damocles do you think Johnson might hang over Ireland?

dogbert27

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

By that logic, Theresa May wasnt bound by the referendum because it happened under Cameron. But I guess consistency is a valuable commodity these days!

Well nobody was bound by the original referendum as it was not legally binding.

Spanish Eyes

I doubt Johnson can function without Cummings. Should be an interesting tete a tete between the two of them.

I doubt anything will come of it TBH. There is only one way this is going, and it is not in EU/Ireland's favour either. UK doesn't care as long as they can hoover up the potential Brexit Party votes in a GE on a hard line stance, and keep the Tories intact.

Scorched Earth policy now or never.

It really is war without the nomenclature of war or ordnance.

ancapailldorcha

Ben Done wrote: »

What Sword of Damocles do you think Johnson might hang over Ireland?

There isn't one. Any move against Ireland is a move against the EU which is why membership of the club is better than not for the various small and middling states of Europe, ie all of them at least when compared to the US, India and China.

Johnson isn't stupid. He knows that hard Brexit means the end of the UK and the Conservative party. Currently, he's putting on a show for the Brexit faithful in case they waver and defect to the Brexit party. Maintaining the Union is the one thing he has been consistent about caring about, aside from himself of course. To me, it seems as if he's trying to provoke Parliament into overruling him and forcing him to seek an extension. That way he gets to keep playing Prime Minister while somehow playing the outsider despite being from Britain's upper caste. He can continue to playing the staunch Brexiter while he machinates to ditch the DUP via a GE or tries to win some sort of token concessions from Brussels which will fail because it failed for his predecessor, something a historian really should know in my opinion.

briany

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I know that saying well and Brexit makes you only more aware of it. They need to be "learnt".

First of all, given the hard-headedness of the Brexiteers so far, I suspect that even if a no-deal Brexit turned out to be a complete economic disaster unlike anything the UK has seen in modern times, they'd react to it in much the same way as the Black Knight did to having his arms and legs lopped off in the film, "Monty Python and the Holy Grail". Just a flesh wound...

They have no capacity to admit they were wrong on the matter, so I don't think there's a whole lot of room to be learned. Much more likely that all those on the other side of the argument, and even those in the middle, will put aside their own petty politics and take control.

Sam Russell

Some posters here might enjoy reviewing the TV series from 1988 - 'A Very British Coup' with Ray McNally. It won an award for best drama.

Pay attention to the ending - during the titles. Most missed the ending.

It is a brilliant depiction - and very apt for current times.

swampgas

I wonder if there is a sense that the English establishment (or maybe a certain ruling elite within it) feel the need to prove to themselves just how powerful they still are, by doing the same thing they did successfully for centuries: bully, threaten, and oppress their opponents and subjects?

Rules and agreements are for weak countries, for peasants, for the middle classes. The elites and superpowers make rules for others, but don't need to follow them themselves. They feel they should be, literally, above the law. The Bullingdon club is an example of this - they break the rules and norms of society, smash up a restaurant, and even though they might pay for the damage, it is primarily a display of naked power: look at us, we can do what we like, and you can't stop us.

And it feels like this elite are freaking out because they don't rule the roost anymore - the Scots don't know their place, the Irish don't know their place, the French and the Germans want to be treated as equals ... and they really don't like it. The EU is calling the shots and there isn't a damn thing they can do about it.

They scream abuse at their neighbours, and expect them to take it lying down. Any response, even if very mild, such as Donald Tusk's cherry picking tweet, triggers outrage, because it shows that the EU are not supplicating themselves before the mighty empire. How dare they stand up for themselves, don't they know we can destroy them? They are like school-yard bullies who lash out when one of their victims dares to look them in the eye.

The EU has always been the enemy of those who want to live the Imperial dream, as it is based on equality, respect and cooperation. It reduces their status to that of mere mortals, no better nor worse than their neighbours. No wonder they're so desperate not just to leave the EU, but to see it destroyed.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

Some posters here might enjoy reviewing the TV series from 1988 - 'A Very British Coup' with Ray McNally. It won an award for best drama.

Pay attention to the ending - during the titles. Most missed the ending.

It is a brilliant depiction - and very apt for current times.

I love how Irish Actors both played the PM in both adaptations (Ray McAnally [father of Aonghus], in the 1989 version) and Gabriel Byrne in 2012's Secret State.

Flex

Ben Done wrote: »

What Sword of Damocles do you think Johnson might hang over Ireland?

Johnson wont have to, apparently Leo Varadkar is "under pressure as furious Irish businesses demand deal with Boris" and give up the backstop /sarcasm

Thats the story in The Express.. I honestly thought this was satire when I read it. And the source for their story? Tory peer Lord Marland :rolleyes:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1164447/Brexit-News-Leo-Varadkhar-Boris-Johnson-no-deal-Ireland


I read excellent posts earlier in this thread relating this to the rise of Fascism and populism in Europe in the interwar years, and it truly is is what is happening; propoganda and brainwashing of the British public. The use of the phrase 'undemocratic backstop', is the most clear example. I find it cringeworthy for the most part, however its being done so that when people hear 'backstop' theyll immediately think 'undemocratic'.

Another is how the EU have forced everything in the WA on the UK, nobody ever points out that the UK entered the negotiations with their red lines and the WA was crafted around those red lines that they didnt have to budge on.

Or how the backstop is a humiliation when it was actually a huge concession that the UK won (on both occasions; allowing Northern Ireland to have special status and again after when the EU conceded to allowing the whole UK to be in it).

As others have pointed out, the reason they cant accept any agreement at the moment is because there are absolutely none that dont make the UK worse off than its status quo position in the EU.

I really have no idea what Johnson is planning, if its all some grand bluff or hes banking on the British parliament blocking no-deal as his excuse and this is grandstanding for a general election. I dont think a no-deal Brexit will be as bad as some expect, but it will definitely make British people (the ordinary working people or those dependent on public services/social welfare) worse off. Whether they cop that it was because of Brexit or because they were sabotaged by remainers/the EU/ the Irish. Very interesting to be living through this though

ancapailldorcha

swampgas wrote: »

I wonder if there is a sense that the English establishment (or maybe a certain ruling elite within it) feel the need to prove to themselves just how powerful they still are, by doing the same thing they did successfully for centuries: bully, threaten, and oppress their opponents and subjects?

Rules and agreements are for weak countries, for peasants, for the middle classes. The elites and superpowers make rules for others, but don't need to follow them themselves. They feel they should be, literally, above the law. The Bullingdon club is an example of this - they break the rules and norms of society, smash up a restaurant, and even though they might pay for the damage, it is primarily a display of naked power: look at us, we can do what we like, and you can't stop us.

And it feels like this elite are freaking out because they don't rule the roost anymore - the Scots don't know their place, the Irish don't know their place, the French and the Germans want to be treated as equals ... and they really don't like it. The EU is calling the shots and there isn't a damn thing they can do about it.

They scream abuse at their neighbours, and expect them to take it lying down. Any response, even if very mild, such as Donald Tusk's cherry picking tweet, triggers outrage, because it shows that the EU are not supplicating themselves before the mighty empire. How dare they stand up for themselves, don't they know we can destroy them? They are like school-yard bullies who lash out when one of their victims dares to look them in the eye.

The EU has always been the enemy of those who want to live the Imperial dream, as it is based on equality, respect and cooperation. It reduces their status to that of mere mortals, no better nor worse than their neighbours. No wonder they're so desperate not just to leave the EU, but to see it destroyed.

I honestly don't think so. Today's English elite seems to be concerned almost solely with self enrichment and profit. Previous generations used to care somewhat for the nation but today's generation of identikit privately educated politicians seem to care for little but their image when they occupy a position of power and then their bottom line once they finish.

Brexit is, and always has been about shady money men making more money and being held to a different standard than the rest of us. Look at Tory donor Crispin Odey better literally hundreds of millions against British firms (including the Royal Mail). Barely a blip in the public domain. Waving the flag and invoking the war is just a good way to appeal to voters while people who see through such things would never vote for those who would employ such tactics to begin with.

ThePanjandrum

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

What I cant figure out is the line about not putting up a border in the event of a no deal, so there will only be a border if Ireland puts it up. Even the (relatively) smarter Brexiteers parrot this line e.g. Jacob Rees Mogg.

But I just cant see how that is compatible with taking control of their borders.

Re: the Taoiseach meeting the Prime Minister, Im guessing he will just restate what has been said before, maybe with some future relationship talk. But the ourpose of meeting is purely goodwill, for Ireland to say at least we tried. I cant see anything else coming of it

How would the UK take control of its borders and still observe the spirit of the Common Travel Area? Does Ireland want to scrap it and the special status of Irish Citizens in the UK to get Brownie points with the EU?

ThePanjandrum

Water John wrote: »

There are voices in the HOC saying 'we will block no deal, whatever the cost'.
Some Tory MPs are willing to bring down the Govn't to stop it, not many, but maybe enough.
For some it may be their last duty as public representative.

It's very strange when most of these MPs voted to have a no deal Brexit in the first place.

Leroy42

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

There are voices in the HOC saying 'we will block no deal, whatever the cost'.
Some Tory MPs are willing to bring down the Govn't to stop it, not many, but maybe enough.
For some it may be their last duty as public representative.

It's very strange when most of these MPs voted to have a no deal Brexit in the first place.

Only if the UK could not agree a deal. Which TM and the cabinet did.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How would the UK take control of its borders and still observe the spirit of the Common Travel Area? Does Ireland want to scrap it and the special status of Irish Citizens in the UK to get Brownie points with the EU?

The CTA refers solely to the movement of private citizens between the two jurisdiction.

Movement of goods which would require tariffs to be applied post-Brexit and customs checks on the goods is a completely different kettle of fish.

Foghladh

swampgas wrote: »

I wonder if there is a sense that the English establishment (or maybe a certain ruling elite within it) feel the need to prove to themselves just how powerful they still are, by doing the same thing they did successfully for centuries: bully, threaten, and oppress their opponents and subjects?

Rules and agreements are for weak countries, for peasants, for the middle classes. The elites and superpowers make rules for others, but don't need to follow them themselves. They feel they should be, literally, above the law. The Bullingdon club is an example of this - they break the rules and norms of society, smash up a restaurant, and even though they might pay for the damage, it is primarily a display of naked power: look at us, we can do what we like, and you can't stop us.

And it feels like this elite are freaking out because they don't rule the roost anymore - the Scots don't know their place, the Irish don't know their place, the French and the Germans want to be treated as equals ... and they really don't like it. The EU is calling the shots and there isn't a damn thing they can do about it.

They scream abuse at their neighbours, and expect them to take it lying down. Any response, even if very mild, such as Donald Tusk's cherry picking tweet, triggers outrage, because it shows that the EU are not supplicating themselves before the mighty empire. How dare they stand up for themselves, don't they know we can destroy them? They are like school-yard bullies who lash out when one of their victims dares to look them in the eye.

The EU has always been the enemy of those who want to live the Imperial dream, as it is based on equality, respect and cooperation. It reduces their status to that of mere mortals, no better nor worse than their neighbours. No wonder they're so desperate not just to leave the EU, but to see it destroyed.

Is it possible that you have a little bit of animosity for England and the British Empire outside of what is actually happening?

ThePanjandrum

Leroy42 wrote: »

Only if the UK could not agree a deal. Which TM and the cabinet did.

May and her Cabinet were not the UK, nor were they the House of Commons which rejected the deal three times.

Merkel must have regretted the effort to write the deal for May.

Imreoir2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How would the UK take control of its borders and still observe the spirit of the Common Travel Area? Does Ireland want to scrap it and the special status of Irish Citizens in the UK to get Brownie points with the EU?

No, we do not want to end the CTA, we did not vote for national self harm on the basis of "controlling our borders". Ending the CTA would earn Ireland no "brownie points" with the EU. Where did you come up with the idea that the EU has a problem with the CTA? Freedom of movement is one of the core principles of the EU, why would they take issue with Ireland having a FOM agreement with a third country?

ThePanjandrum

Strazdas wrote: »

The CTA refers solely to the movement of private citizens between the two jurisdiction.

Movement of goods which would require tariffs to be applied post-Brexit and customs checks on the goods is a completely different kettle of fish.

"Taking control of our borders" referred to the movement of people, not of goods.