Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So in a nutshell - you have decided after consulting all the wide range of sources that the EU are going to 'blink'?

From, of all places, The Telegraph's website. It's their main headline:

Michel Barnier warns Tory leadership hopefuls that EU will never renegotiate Brexit agreement

Enzokk

The tradition of failing upwards is alive and well with Theresa May giving a helping hand to those that were loyal to her with the upcoming Queen's Birthday Honours List. Were you in charge of a national scandal that is still happening and cost one minister her job? You get a knighthood. Were you Chief Constable in charge where 373 kids were groomed and sexually abused, but you fall under May's constituency? You are to be made a dame.

Queen's Birthday Honours for Theresa May cronies - including Windrush Scandal chief

Theresa May’s former top officials and political cronies have been handed gongs - despite the Prime Minister slamming David Cameron after his chums got honours in his resignation list.

The awards for Mrs May’s loyal Home Office staff and top police chiefs were revealed just hours after she quit as Tory leader and as she prepares to skulk out of No10.


Head of immigration Glyn Williams becomes a Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath in the Queen’s Birthday Honours - despite his role in the Windrush scandal.

Mr Williams served as the Home Office’s head of migration policy between August 2010 to 2013 when the hostile environment policy was developed.

...

Another controversial honour goes to police chief Sara Thornton who had to apologise for her role in one of the worst child sex slavery scandals in British history.

Ms Thornton said she was “delighted and humbled” to be made a Dame.

The current Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner was chief constable of Thames Valley Police - which includes Mrs May’s Maidenhead constituency - in 2007 to 2015.

The force failed to help up to 373 children who were groomed, plied with drugs and alcohol and sexually abused in Oxford.

What's that, we have to feel sorry for May crying because she lost her job that she really loves?

An Ciarraioch

Leadsom smoked cannabis in the past, which makes her as radical as Brian Cowen:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrea-leadsom-cannabis-weed-drugs-michael-gove-cocaine-tory-leadership-a8950276.html

Zubeneschamali

Cal4567 wrote: »

Before I go, the new Tory PM may have to play their ace card later this summer or in early Autumn. The No deal option and see if the EU blink. My feeling is they will agree a time related scenario for the backstop with promises of financial support for us. A no deal does not suit either side. Also, the UK has to leave no. There is no going back from this.

Firstly, No Deal was firmly rejected by Parliament, and the new PM won't have any better numbers than May had at Westminster.

Secondly, the EU has been really preparing for No Deal, as opposed to the UK who cancelled their prep more than a month ago, so No Deal would hurt the UK a lot more than the EU. It's an idiotic bluff which everyone on the EU side is laughing at, not an ace card.

Thirdly, the UK have not gone anywhere yet, so there is no going back required - just cancel Brexit and don't leave. In practice, they may have to extend A50 a few times before that is politically possible - extend it year by year until 2025, then call it off when more Brexiteers die of cataplexy.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Leadsom smoked cannabis in the past, which makes her as radical as Brian Cowen:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrea-leadsom-cannabis-weed-drugs-michael-gove-cocaine-tory-leadership-a8950276.html

Tory cabinet members taking drugs would explain a lot.

Calina

Cal4567 wrote: »

BBC, Channel 4 and on-line The Guardian and Telegraph. All these give me a wide enough perspective to allow me then to form my own view coupled with my on the ground day to day experience. Politically, I wouldn't have any time for Boris Johnson and as for the Brexit Party, like UKIP they are one trick pones with just the single focus, Brexit.

My analysis would take into account a more global focus as well. Not just Europe.

All your news sources are UK based. I also read from Spain, Luxembourg, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece and Finland.

And NYT. And Australia.

Your focus is far from global. Mine is too.

Zubeneschamali

Calina wrote: »

Your focus is far from global. Mine is too.

I think the "global focus" is the nonsensical idea that the UK will gain more from trading with the 3rd world than it loses from barriers to trade with France, 20 miles away.

Leroy42

And here is Leadsom admitting that people are going to lose their jobs because of Brexit.

But sure that is what the people voted for and she wants to be PM so she can make sure it happens.

https://twitter.com/pickledpuffin/status/1137291870827089922?s=19

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the "global focus" is the nonsensical idea that the UK will gain more from trading with the 3rd world than it loses from barriers to trade with France, 20 miles away.

There was a lot of guff a while back about how most of the global growth would be outside the EU in the new economies.

IIRC 80-90% of that growth would be covered by India and China.

India wants visas. Lot and lots of them.

The UK shafted the EU steel industry by vetoing a ban on Chinese steel dumping all so that UK families could save a fiver year on cheap Chinese shoes. Japan jumped at the chance of doing a deal with the EU when Trump trashed the trans pacific partnership, precisely to avoid having to do a deal with China.


Or look at how UK exports to the developing world have changed since the Sterling devaluation made them more affordable. They haven't gone up. So what makes anyone think they'd go up because of some unspecified Brexit Magic ?

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Michael Gove says he took cocaine. This is problematic. I've never taken cocaine so is Michael Gove cooler than me?

This is so embarrassing now. In order to differentiate themselves half the field has admitted to taking drugs.
"What's the naughtiest thing you've ever done?"


Tory membership ain't going to like that.

At lest Rory could claim to be in a position where it would be immodest or impolite to refuse.

Boris didn't inhale

"I tried it at university and I remember it vividly. And it achieved no pharmacological, psychotropic or any other effect on me whatsoever."

"I think I was once given cocaine but I sneezed and so it did not go up my nose. In fact, I may have been doing icing sugar," he said.
...
On cannabis he said: "There was a period before university when I had quite a few (cannabis joints). It was jolly nice. But apparently it is very different these days. Much stronger.

Igotadose

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

This is so embarrassing now. In order to differentiate themselves half the field has admitted to taking drugs.
"What's the naughtiest thing you've ever done?"


Tory membership ain't going to like that.

At lest Rory could claim to be in a position where it would be immodest or impolite to refuse.

Boris didn't inhale

Ahh. I've got Brexit sorted. Make it compulsory that the next PM and all his/her cabinet members begin each meeting with some major spliffing, perhaps the occasional Chequers meeting where they drop acid. Then, they can be convinced they've exited the EU, without actually having done anything. If the hardcore Leavers aren't convinced, dope them up as well. Problem solved. Perhaps increase the fluoride level in the water supplies in the UK to pacify the populace while they're at it.

An Ciarraioch

Sajid Javid now wants to fob us off with £500m to solve the Border:

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1137456686501904384

Spanish Eyes

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sajid Javid now wants to fob us off with £500m to solve the Border:

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1137456686501904384

It is getting more and more bizarre. There is a song about that somewhere deep in my memory.

I do hope the threads on Brexit here will be archived for future historians.

A Dub in Glasgo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sajid Javid now wants to fob us off with £500m to solve the Border:

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1137456686501904384

Kiss of death there for Javid with Ruth 'I will just shout, have no policies and flip flop' Davidson

Water John

They gave the DUP £1Bn, so he thinks we'll settle for half that?

Anteayer

500m in compensation would also be chickenfeed compared to the cost of disruption and mitigation.

Obviously money won't solve the situation, but that's not even realistic money.

Clearly budgets and cost estimates aren't a strong point in the Tories.

Sam Russell

It is not the money, it is the border. If they put the border in the Irish Sea, it solves the problem.

If we get a United Ireland, that also solves the problem, and that is where a healthy contribution might help a great deal.

Spanish Eyes

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is not the money, it is the border. If they put the border in the Irish Sea, it solves the problem.

If we get a United Ireland, that also solves the problem, and that is where a healthy contribution might help a great deal.

500m is just chicken feed, but maybe it's an opening gambit.

Cannot see DUP accepting anything like a UI, or a border in the Irish Sea, or any contribution to the border issue either. So if they bail out, what happens then to the new PM?

Laois_Man

£500m?

Considering the no-deal Brexit will see them pocketing 78 times that amount, according to Boris, it's a bit maingy!

Water John

I think Boris art says he'd withhold £30Bn until EU renegotiated a fresh deal. Headline is a bit misleading, (nothing unusual in that).

Laois_Man

Water John wrote: »

I think Boris art says he'd withhold £30Bn until EU renegotiated a fresh deal. Headline is a bit misleading, (nothing unusual in that).

Oh I know - It was tongue & cheek about the £500m

There's plenty to laugh at in that article other than the headline - also the sub-headline.....Johnson breaks silence.....how long was he silent for? 3.5 seconds?

And the bit about refusing to deal with the N. Ireland border until after the future relationship is sorted. What Boris.....you said Jump.....oh how high Boris??

Put it on the side of a big red bus Boris!

Funniest of all is what it DOESN'T say...for example, the rating agencies who have already said the UK's credit rating is immediately getting downgraded if they exit still saying they won't pay what the owe!

Enzokk

I think he is setting the country up for accepting May's deal, with a few caveats that will mean nothing. He wants to withhold the £39bn for better terms, not specifying what that is. It could just be that there will be further discussions about letting the UK have a say in EU regulations and trade talks without being in the EU. That is better than they have right now, but it is meaningless.

Then on the Irish backstop he wants that to be sorted by the trade talks, which is exactly what will happen currently. It is only when the trade talks doesn't finish in time for the end of transition period that it kicks in. He will be able to sell it as a win if the EU comes out and says the border will be shaped by the future trade talks, but...

Nope, I was trying to see how this ends for him and either way he runs into the same wall as May. Either he demands the backstop is dropped to keep the DUP on board (for the UK to have their own trade deals), or he agrees to an Irish Sea border in which case he loses the DUP and thus loses the ability to govern in the House of Commons.

The only difference is his whole leadership bid to the membership is sold as being the tough guy and when the time will come for that to be paid he will be forced to either back down and look weak or double down and bring down the government and his own party. In some freakish way it is fascinating to see what will happen over the summer and what the result will be.

Headshot

Wow Ester Mc Vey is really bat **** crazy

Just listening to her on Andrew Mar.

I think she makes Boris look actually competent

Inquitus

Headshot wrote: »

Wow Ester Mc Vey is really bat **** crazy

Just listening to her on Andrew Mar.

I think she makes Boris look actually competent

It's a contest of who can be the most crazy. Brexit is gonna be a ****show now I think, May was the last bastion between common sense and WTO

https://www.rte.ie/news/uk/2019/0609/1054313-conservative-leadership-uk/
British Conservative leadership hopeful Jeremy Hunt has said Angela Merkel told him the European Union "would be willing to negotiate" on the Brexit deal with a new prime minister.

The Foreign Secretary claimed the German Chancellor said Brussels "would look at any solutions" the UK puts forward to solve the Northern Irish border issue as he tried to emphasise his credentials as a deal-maker in the race to replace Theresa May.

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

CrabRevolution

Deleted User wrote: »

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

I think the important part is "look at any solutions the UK puts forward". Every "solution" the UK has put forward so far has been crap so I can't see them producing a miracle solution any time soon that the EU finds acceptable.

Enzokk

Deleted User wrote: »

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

A bit of both, the EU has never rejected if new ideas are brought forward to try and get the deal through. The problem is the ideas were always constrained by the red lines from May. So unless the new PM throws away the red lines, unlikely, it is nothing more than wishful thinking.

trellheim

Has anyone got a non-"magic beans" definition of "managed no deal"

Stop moaning ffs

Enzokk wrote: »

A bit of both, the EU has never rejected if new ideas are brought forward to try and get the deal through. The problem is the ideas were always constrained by the red lines from May. So unless the new PM throws away the red lines, unlikely, it is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Wondered about this.
If I were running for PM I’d go on the promise that we’d scrap this deal and start again. It wouldn’t be popular at all but as it stands that’s deal is never going to get through Parliament and they’ll never leave with no deal either so it’s in limbo for years to come i reckon

volchitsa

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Wondered about this.
If I were running for PM I’d go on the promise that we’d scrap this deal and start again. It wouldn’t be popular at all but as it stands that’s deal is never going to get through Parliament and they’ll never leave with no deal either so it’s in limbo for years to come i reckon

Why exactly would the EU agree to scrap it and start again, and what exactly would be different this time around that both the EU would agree to and that would get through Westminster?