Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

The source given there is "University of Leuven". That's as close to unhelpful as I think you could get.

I think it's the Express trying to sell the latest batch of English exceptionalism to its ever ageing readership.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So now Johnson isn’t coming to Dublin?

What’s going on at all


https://twitter.com/sw1airish/status/1160877530536128512?s=21

Well, what the spokesperson said is that there is no meeting scheduled, not that there will be no meeting.

ambro25

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So now Johnson isn’t coming to Dublin?

What’s going on at all


https://twitter.com/sw1airish/status/1160877530536128512?s=21

Purest and highest form of gaslighting there is, if true: no.10 agrees visit with Irish counterpart (long in advance, std protocol), waits for 1st Irish annoucement, then disavows = makes it look as if Irish desperate for talks and/or incompetent, besides instilling still more distrust across the board.

Between shenanigans like that and barricading the UK diplomatic staff from EU working meetings, I'd say the UK is now pro-actively taking torches to bridges.

Stop moaning ffs

ambro25 wrote: »

Purest and highest form of gaslighting there is, if true: no.10 confirms visit to Irish counterpart (long in advance, std protocol), waits for 1st Irish annoucement, then disavows = makes it look as if Irish desperate for talks and/or incompetent, besides instilling still more distrust across the board.

Looks that way for sure.

Kermit.de.frog

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, what the spokesperson said is that there is no meeting scheduled, not that there will be no meeting.

Like I said - there is NO WAY Johnson is coming to Dublin to be told "no".


It's all about optics.


He won't go to Brussels either.


I 100% believe there will be a general election before any such meeting.

Enzokk

RobAMerc wrote: »

So now, according to the express - Germany will loose close to 55% as many jobs as the UK in a no deal Brexit ??
I'm no economist - but are we over egging our importance a bit here ?

EDIT : (Although I see now the source is the University of Leuven Belgium )

The takeaway for me from that picture is that there will a lot of job losses all over the place. I have to ask, why are they doing it? Seriously, can anyone give any good reason looking at that picture as to why they are leaving?

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Like I said - there is NO WAY Johnson is coming to Dublin to be told "no".


It's all about optics.


He won't go to Brussels either.


I 100% believe there will be a general election before any such meeting.

You could well be right.

LordBasil

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

How many articles are there about Varadkar in the UK tabloids each day now? Must be some sort of record for a Taoiseach. It gets ever more ridiculous.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1164641/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Ireland-Leo-Varadkar-Dublin-event-Jean-Claude-Juncker-Michel-Barnier

The Downing Street public relations machine has given it's orders.

Exactly, since when are The Daily Express concerned as to where IRISH tax payers' money is going.

amacca

Enzokk wrote: »

RobAMerc wrote: »

So now, according to the express - Germany will loose close to 55% as many jobs as the UK in a no deal Brexit ??
I'm no economist - but are we over egging our importance a bit here ?

EDIT : (Although I see now the source is the University of Leuven Belgium )

The takeaway for me from that picture is that there will a lot of job losses all over the place. I have to ask, why are they doing it? Seriously, can anyone give any good reason looking at that picture as to why they are leaving?

Because occasionally the conditions are right for the loons aided and abetted by opportunists to take over the asylum .....thats the best I can come up with.

Stop moaning ffs

I don’t see the British public turning on the queen at any stage. Even the most rabid brexiters.
It won’t come to that anyways though.

Hopefully.

RobAMerc

RobAMerc wrote: »

So now, according to the express - Germany will loose close to 55% as many jobs as the UK in a no deal Brexit ??
I'm no economist - but are we over egging our importance a bit here ?

EDIT : (Although I see now the source is the University of Leuven Belgium )

Rather a strange "worst case scenario" image, it appears to assume that trade stops completely and is not replaced at all.
Rather silly to assume that a car buyer who can't get a BMW will not buy a car at all, of course not, he'll buy something else. Same for BMW, if they can't sell the car in the UK, they'll make them to sell somewhere else.

LordBasil

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

And then it got worse, so here is a possible sequence of events
1. Johnson looses vote of no confidence
2. Refuses step down
3. Queen has to decide and tells him get lost (she is already grumbling about incompetence)
4. Boris says no
5. Rabid media turns on royal family, groundwork of calling them anti democratic and tainted with foreign blood is being laid now
6. October 31st rolls by and no extension is requested/given
7. Macron tightens screws in Calais
8. US propose a trade deal that makes UK Puerto Rico in the North Sea
9. Scotland seizes it's chance to escape the asylum

Could the Queen not just dissolve parliament and therefore force a GE? This would pass the decision to the GBP.

Lackadaisical

LordBasil wrote: »

Exactly, since when are The Daily Express concerned as to where IRISH tax payers' money is going.

They’re basically trying very hard to cause a political problem here and I would suspect it will get worse in the weeks ahead.

I also note the €400k covers the entire diplomatic global budget for that and not just the EU but they’ve spun it to look like that in the headline.

It’s actually one area I’m not that bothered about. We’re trying to mitigate a huge crisis and it needs everything thrown at diplomacy and that includes wining and dining people.

It’s basically the diplomatic corps’ marketing budget and the other side of it is that it’s probably keeping up a flow of billions in investment. It’s a period of time where Ireland has no choice but to lash resources into diplomacy.

Kermit.de.frog

Reading this in the Telegraph

Irish sources said their Prime Minister would make clear that the backstop is not up for renegotiation at their planned meeting early next month.

The move could scupper the talks even before they take place as Mr Johnson has insisted the backstop is “undemocratic” and that its removal is a pre-condition for any talks with Brussels.

Ok, it's a pre-condition, so what exactly is the UK threatening the EU with if the pre-condition is not met?

That's how absurd that reads.

"We are going to pull the trigger, blow our heads off and you might get some blood on your shirts"!

EU should turn the tables then and say "You are out on Oct 31, deal or no deal" and hammer home that message.

trellheim

Could the Queen not just dissolve parliament and therefore force a GE? This would pass the decision to the GBP.

UK FTPA technically removed the sovereign's prerogative here.


part of my head is wondering why Nikki Da Costa went to work for Johnson I used to like her on twitter

I also note the €400k covers the entire diplomatic global budget for that and not just the EU but they’ve spun it to look like that in the headline.

400k and cheap at twice the price

JPF82

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

How many articles are there about Varadkar in the UK tabloids each day now? Must be some sort of record for a Taoiseach. It gets ever more ridiculous.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1164641/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Ireland-Leo-Varadkar-Dublin-event-Jean-Claude-Juncker-Michel-Barnier

The Downing Street public relations machine has given it's orders.

Sure it costs multiples if that amount for Royal Visits.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/revealed-how-much-prince-charles-s-irish-visits-cost-garda-1.3178751

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Reading this in the Telegraph



Ok, it's a pre-condition, so what exactly is the UK threatening the EU with if the pre-condition is not met?

That's how absurd that reads.

"We are going to pull the trigger, blow our heads off and you might get some blood on your shirts"!

EU should turn the tables then and say "You are out on Oct 31, deal or no deal" and hammer home that message.

Message should be "Why wait" You can go tomorrow.

Make that clear in their press and see what comes out of it

FrancieBrady

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I don’t see the British public turning on the queen at any stage. Even the most rabid brexiters.
It won’t come to that anyways though.

Hopefully.

They almost did over Diana. The modern royal family watch their p&q's since. They were much more remote before that.

Kermit.de.frog

Dominic Cummings has taken to Twitter (out Oct 31st etc etc)

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1160891362583166976

Do they not understand that the EU decision makers can actually see this stuff and it might come across as antagonistic? (they do understand of course)

VinLieger

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dominic Cummings has taken to Twitter (out Oct 31st etc etc)

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1160891362583166976

Do they not understand that the EU decision makers can actually see this stuff and it might come across as antagonistic?

During the entire process they've been arguing and shouting in public, on TV, in newspapers and on twitter how they are gonna do this or that to the big bad EU and still have been constantly shocked when they showed up to the table and the EU was 100% prepared for the thing they had told the world they were going to do.

Lackadaisical

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They almost did over Diana. The modern royal family watch their p&q's since. They were much more remote before that.

The tabloids basically ran Dianna into the ground and I would strong suspect the fact that she was being pursued aggressively by photographers who sold pictures to the UK tabloids was probably why she died. She shouldn’t have been under so much pressure to constantly run from the media.

After her death the tabloids went into ultra pro Dianna stuff, making out that they loved her having absolutely tortured the woman for most of her adult life.

Then they spent a time aggressively criticizing the Queen for not being emotional enough and engaging in conspiracies about how the royals must have done it, despite the fact she was was in a high speed chase trying to avoid a press photographer!!
That was pushed back against extremely hard by palace and there was a major PR rebuild of the queen to be far softer and the other royals seem to have largely become more PR aware or have become more distant.

In general though the tabloids in the UK are impressively obnoxious and self righteous when criticized. They’ve been the driving force behind all sorts of political movements and are anything but a passive commentator. They’re quite capable of pursuing political agendas and it’s incredibly evident in Brexit.

Very few other countries have a media like this. Even the US media isn’t quite this extreme and it’s very heavy political biases also initially came about through the politicization of Fox News, another Murdock organization, using very much the same tactics as a Uk tabloid.

The UK print media isn’t what you see in most sane, normal, modern democracies. It’s quite a unique phenomenon.

FrancieBrady

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The tabloids basically ran Dianna into the ground and I would strong suspect the fact that she was being pursued aggressively by photographers who sold pictures to the UK tabloids was probably why she died. She shouldn’t have been under so much pressure to constantly run from the media.

After her death the tabloids went into ultra pro Dianna stuff, making out that they loved her having absolutely tortured the woman for most of her adult life.

Then they spent a time aggressively criticizing the Queen for not being emotional enough and engaging in conspiracies about how the royals must have done it, despite the fact she was was in a high speed chase trying to avoid a press photographer!!
That was pushed back against extremely hard by palace and there was a major PR rebuild of the queen to be far softer and the other royals seem to have largely become more PR aware or have become more distant.

In general though the tabloids in the UK are impressively obnoxious and self righteous when criticized. They’ve been the driving force behind all sorts of political movements and are anything but a passive commentator. They’re quite capable of pursuing political agendas and it’s incredibly evident in Brexit.

Very few other countries have a media like this. Even the US media isn’t quite this extreme and it’s very heavy political biases also initially came about through the politicization of Fox News, another Murdock organization, using very much the same tactics as a Uk tabloid

I was thinking of the days immediately after her death. Before a media campaign could take hold. The public sentiment was very very raw and the royals were forced to show their grief much more publicly. Agree with the rest, they are a different royal family now.

Kaybaykwah

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Can she tell him to go? Appoint a PM? Behead someone?

Yes, well beheading is making a radical short shrift of an argument. It is considered bad form but still, HM is a traditionalist and in that sense might want to revive said form in all its regal accoutrements.

robinph

Deleted User wrote: »

Rather a strange "worst case scenario" image, it appears to assume that trade stops completely and is not replaced at all.
Rather silly to assume that a car buyer who can't get a BMW will not buy a car at all, of course not, he'll buy something else. Same for BMW, if they can't sell the car in the UK, they'll make them to sell somewhere else.

The way the brexiteers carry on you'd think that the only make of car on the roads of the UK was BMW and everyone bought a brand new car twice a year?

KildareP

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Reading this in the Telegraph



Ok, it's a pre-condition, so what exactly is the UK threatening the EU with if the pre-condition is not met?

That's how absurd that reads.

"We are going to pull the trigger, blow our heads off and you might get some blood on your shirts"!

EU should turn the tables then and say "You are out on Oct 31, deal or no deal" and hammer home that message.

I think the EU silence at the moment is the perfect approach, personally.

A reaction is exactly what they're hoping for here so they have something to run with in the press and on their campaign.

To be stonewalled instead must be absolutely killing them.

It must also be increasing cause for concern because they can't get any sort of read on where the EU is at in terms of Brexit - they can neither claim they're the big bully nor claim they're about to crack and give-in so the UK don't know for certain whether the EU are going to call their bluff or not.

trellheim

For one reason or another I've been reading Johnsons tweets/replies - https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/with_replies

If that doesn't spell a GE grid I dunno what does

Lackadaisical

The talk of the Queen stepping in to politics and intervening is about as ludicrous as the talk about Sinn Fein taking seats in Westminster. In both cases it’s simply not going to happen as it’s contrary to everything they stand for.

The Queen seems to take her constitutional position as figurehead and nothing more than that extremely seriously and she’s never put a foot wrong or practically had a hair out of place for her entire career. I would assume she’ll just let the Commons figure it out.

In some ways it has to happen that way too. I am increasingly of the opinion that the UK body politic and media need to make this mistake and feel the consequences of their political decisions. Nobody really can jump in and prevent it. It’s their mess and they need to deal with it themselves and figure it out. Sovereignty includes having to live with your own decisions.

I really don’t see it being resolved by just sweeping Brexit to the margins. It will just keep coming back. It needs to play out and if it’s a success (very unlikely) all fine and well but if it’s a failure (likely) then the lies and spin need to be dealt with by the electorate. They swallowed this hook, line and sinker and they need to deal with that and learn from it.

robinph

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The talk of the Queen stepping in to politics and intervening is about as ludicrous as the talk about Sinn Fein taking seats in Westminster. In both cases it’s simply not going to happen as it’s contrary to everything they stand for.

The Queen seems to take her constitutional position as figurehead and nothing more than that extremely seriously and she’s never put a foot wrong or practically had a hair out of place for her entire career. I would assume she’ll just let the Commons figure it out.

Who knows what she actually says in her weekly meetings with the PM though? Nobody has ever actually divulged anything about those meetings, but they have also never stopped having them over the years so there must be some worth to them happening from the PM's perspective.

I'm sure she's offering more than just tea and biscuits, and it can't just be for the sake of carrying on with the tradition as other than each PM's first and last meeting with the Queen nobody is paying attention to the ceremony of it.

LeinsterDub

Lackadaisical wrote: »

The talk of the Queen stepping in to politics and intervening is about as ludicrous as the talk about Sinn Fein taking seats in Westminster. In both cases it’s simply not going to happen as it’s contrary to everything they stand for.

The Queen seems to take her constitutional position as figurehead and nothing more than that extremely seriously and she’s never put a foot wrong or practically had a hair out of place for her entire career. I would assume she’ll just let the Commons figure it out.

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

Tell me how

Honest to God but this is depressing.

A Cabinet of women is what is needed according to Caroline Lucas.

We need an “emergency cabinet” – not to fight a Brexit war but to work for reconciliation. And I believe this should be a cabinet of women.

Why women? Because I believe women have shown they can bring a different perspective to crises, are able to reach out to those they disagree with and cooperate to find solutions. It was two women, Betty Williams and Mairead Corrigan, who began the Peace People movement during the worst of the Troubles in Northern Ireland; it was two women, Christiana Figueres and Ségolène Royal, who were key to the signing of the Paris climate agreement; intractable problems have found the beginning of resolution thanks to the leadership of women.

Ignoring the fact that former PM Theresa May is by all accounts a woman, to suggest gender is a factor in selecting a path through this is not only regressive (it permits the argument that gender is a determinable factor) in the extreme but so bizarre to suggest it at this stage that it is funny.

I was impressed with Caroline and some of her performances on QT earlier in the year but this has had me shaking my head since I heard it this morning.

Every EU advocate is in despair at the position and approach of Johnson, disgusted at the self-serving apathy of Corbyn and now, Caroline has suggested this which is giving Brexiteers a stick to beat the remainers with.