Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Lackadaisical

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

I’d honestly guess she’ll just sit there and do nothing, probably hoping someone takes a Supreme Court Case.

I quite honestly wouldn’t be surprised if her weekly meetings are tea and biscuits and a chat about the weather. She’s never said very much about anything and anything she does say is highly scripted and choreographed.

She has had lots of opportunity - for example in her Christmas addresses she could have used huge moral authority to call for a revolution and calm without being at all political and she really didn’t go near it.

I think you really are looking at a figurehead who enjoys a bit of horse racing.

She’s probably a nice old lady and she’s certainly well able to play the role but I think that’s about as much as there is to her. I can’t see her initiating anything.

robinph

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

If Johnson doesn't do what parliament says then parliament can arrest him and lock him up beneath Big Ben I believe.

prawnsambo

robinph wrote: »

If Johnson doesn't do what parliament says then parliament can arrest him and lock him up beneath Big Ben I believe.

Just under the bells would be ideal.



I did not know that this could be done. I do know that (not sure if it's still in place) there is a rifle range under Westminster. There since before the last war apparently. Not suggesting what use it be put to now of course.

LeinsterDub

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I’d honestly guess she’ll just sit there and do nothing, probably hoping someone takes a Supreme Court Case.

Doing nothing is doing something but it's unlikely to come to this.

Enzokk

Tell me how wrote: »

Honest to God but this is depressing.

A Cabinet of women is what is needed according to Caroline Lucas.



Ignoring the fact that former PM Theresa May is by all accounts a woman, to suggest gender is a factor in selecting a path through this is not only regressive (it permits the argument that gender is a determinable factor) in the extreme but so bizarre to suggest it at this stage that it is funny.

I was impressed with Caroline and some of her performances on QT earlier in the year but this has had me shaking my head since I heard it this morning.

Every EU advocate is in despair at the position and approach of Johnson, disgusted at the self-serving apathy of Corbyn and now, Caroline has suggested this which is giving Brexiteers a stick to beat the remainers with.

I agree that gender should have no bearing in who should be in charge if a unity government is selected, but think of it this way. Instead of talking about the absurdity of a government of national unity we are now talking about who should be in one. Do you see the difference? Whether that was the plan, I don't know.

At the very least the same way that no-deal has entered into the minds of people by having it spoken about all the time, with this you now are talking about a unity government and if it should happen people will not have been blindsided by it.

Sam Russell

LeinsterDub wrote: »

How would she stay it out when the problem is brought to her doorstep?

If Johnson loses a vote and refuses to step aside while a other candidate claims to have the support of the house who does she acknowledge?

If Johnson decided to Prorogue parliament but the house refuses to accept it who does she side with?

Watch 'A Very British Coup' with Ray McNally playing PM Harry Perkins - a left wing Labour PM. (but do watch to the very very end). It is available on Ch4 in three episodes.

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/a-very-british-coup

It is brilliant and is very apposite to the current situation. I could tell you why but that would be a spoiler.

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Doing nothing is doing something.

My thoughts exactly and why popcorn would be required!

Thing is, was Farage marking a few cards with his speech in Aus.

Tell me how

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that gender should have no bearing in who should be in charge if a unity government is selected, but think of it this way. Instead of talking about the absurdity of a government of national unity we are now talking about who should be in one. Do you see the difference? Whether that was the plan, I don't know.

At the very least the same way that no-deal has entered into the minds of people by having it spoken about all the time, with this you now are talking about a unity government and if it should happen people will not have been blindsided by it.

I don't see any link between Lucas's letter and a conversation about the contents of a Government of national unity other than to ridicule it. Even Emma Barnett was baffled by the gender angle earlier.
The GONU topic was already in the media for the last 10 days or so.

I mean, did anyone remind her that the leaders of the two biggest parties in the North are women and the North has recently broken the record for the longest period without a functioning government.

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that gender should have no bearing in who should be in charge if a unity government is selected, but think of it this way. Instead of talking about the absurdity of a government of national unity we are now talking about who should be in one. Do you see the difference? Whether that was the plan, I don't know.

At the very least the same way that no-deal has entered into the minds of people by having it spoken about all the time, with this you now are talking about a unity government and if it should happen people will not have been blindsided by it.

A national unity government is fantasy in my opinion. The Conservatives are ostensibly a single party and look at how fractured they are. The Greens are very left wing socialists while the Lib Dems are centrist economic liberals. Then there's Labour. There is no room whatsoever for any sort of dissent without significant Tory involvement.

As for Lucas' comments, I wasn't going to post about it but since it's been raised I will. I don't think it's helpful, frankly. The country is already divided enough as it is so I don't see how adding the gender element would help.

reslfj

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The source given there is "University of Leuven". That's as close to unhelpful as I think you could get.

I think it's the Express trying to sell the latest batch of English exceptionalism to its ever ageing readership.

I found this link:

https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=brexit%20action%20plan%202019

Lars

Sam Russell

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't see any link between Lucas's letter and a conversation about the contents of a Government of national unity other than to ridicule it. Even Emma Barnett was baffled by the gender angle earlier.
The GONU topic was already in the media for the last 10 days or so.

I think that is like the salesman asking 'What colour would you like it in?' so you think positively about buying it, rather than thinking 'Do I want it?' or even 'What would I want it for?'

The more there is talk about GONU, the more likely it will happen, particularly if that talk is positive.

Enzokk

Tell me how wrote: »

I don't see any link between Lucas's letter and a conversation about the contents of a Government of national unity other than to ridicule it. Even Emma Barnett was baffled by the gender angle earlier.
The GONU topic was already in the media for the last 10 days or so.

I mean, did anyone remind her that the leaders of the two biggest parties in the North are women and the North has recently broken the record for the longest period without a functioning government.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

A national unity government is fantasy in my opinion. The Conservatives are ostensibly a single party and look at how fractured they are. The Greens are very left wing socialists while the Lib Dems are centrist economic liberals. Then there's Labour. There is no room whatsoever for any sort of dissent without significant Tory involvement.

As for Lucas' comments, I wasn't going to post about it but since it's been raised I will. I don't think it's helpful, frankly. The country is already divided enough as it is so I don't see how adding the gender element would help.

I am looking for a positive angle on this. The problem I see is that the staunch Corbynites do not want anything other than him in charge and if it is not him then someone like Dianne Abbott should be there.

I agree that I cannot see how this gets through as Labour will be the fly in the ointment. Just because the Tories has lost it with Brexit doesn't change the fact that Labour under Corbyn is a cult that will easily see a disaster Brexit as a boon for him. He will most likely fight a Unity Government even more than he has fought against no-deal, in case they make a success of it and it shows how incompetent he has been on Brexit.

reslfj

reslfj wrote: »

I found this link:

https://www.fdfa.be/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Brexit%20impact%20study%202019.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=website&utm_campaign=brexit%20action%20plan%202019

Lars

I just skimmed it, so please correct me if I am wrong. But

Where are our (huge) public sectors in impact percent calculations.

Isn't the data from 2014? much has happened since.

Very much Belgium, very little detailed UK

I think it underestimates the value of the no-red-tape SM and the EU FTAs in moving to new customers?

Lars

ancapailldorcha

Enzokk wrote: »

I am looking for a positive angle on this. The problem I see is that the staunch Corbynites do not want anything other than him in charge and if it is not him then someone like Dianne Abbott should be there.

And the Liberals will refuse to collaborate with Labour if he is there. Sturgeon may but might insist on Labour committing to an Indyref2.

Enzokk wrote: »

I agree that I cannot see how this gets through as Labour will be the fly in the ointment. Just because the Tories has lost it with Brexit doesn't change the fact that Labour under Corbyn is a cult that will easily see a disaster Brexit as a boon for him. He will most likely fight a Unity Government even more than he has fought against no-deal, in case they make a success of it and it shows how incompetent he has been on Brexit.

Each of these remain parties has a different agenda, as will the liberal Tories who may or may not cooperate with them. You need a leader who can command support from such a broad base. I thought that that might have been Lucas or Swinson but the former is a lot less appealing IMO after making silly remarks like this while the latter is an economic liberal. The closest parallel is, like J Mysterio's excellent post over the week, World War 2 where Churchill, a Liberal-turned-Conservative was the only figure both sides could stomach to lead a government of national unity.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And the Liberals will refuse to collaborate with Labour if he is there. Sturgeon may but might insist on Labour committing to an Indyref2.



Each of these remain parties has a different agenda, as will the liberal Tories who may or may not cooperate with them. You need a leader who can command support from such a broad base. I thought that that might have been Lucas or Swinson but the former is a lot less appealing IMO after making silly remarks like this while the latter is an economic liberal. The closest parallel is, like J Mysterio's excellent post over the week, World War 2 where Churchill, a Liberal-turned-Conservative was the only figure both sides could stomach to lead a government of national unity.

I thought a GONU led by Dominic Grieve might come closest to actually being occupied by people who were focused on the best interests of the UK.

Anyone advocating purely though for a government to cancel Brexit is playing with fire in antagonising those who voted for it (as you pointed out earlier, they will forever be told their Brexit was denied to them through various covert measures).

Sam Russell

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

And the Liberals will refuse to collaborate with Labour if he is there. Sturgeon may but might insist on Labour committing to an Indyref2.



Each of these remain parties has a different agenda, as will the liberal Tories who may or may not cooperate with them. You need a leader who can command support from such a broad base. I thought that that might have been Lucas or Swinson but the former is a lot less appealing IMO after making silly remarks like this while the latter is an economic liberal. The closest parallel is, like J Mysterio's excellent post over the week, World War 2 where Churchill, a Liberal-turned-Conservative was the only figure both sides could stomach to lead a government of national unity.

I think for a GONU to be formed, it would need a Tory to be proposed as PM in order to get enough rebel Tories on board. The obvious choice would be Ken Clarke because he is the father of the house, is retiring at the next election, and is a solid remainer.

It would also be a special purpose GONU with the sole purpose of stopping No Deal, and preferably revoke Art 50, and if possible pass a law requiring a two thirds majority to invoke Art 50 again, thus cancelling Art 50 for a generation.

If they look for a 2nd Ref, it will prolong and intensify the madness. Revoke admits it was a mistake, was passed by a slim majority, the result was polluted by illegal activity on the side of Leave, and that the campaign was ridden by lies on an industrial scale and, of course, corrupt funding.

Shelga

Those opposed to No Deal have not been able to form any cohesive movement before, I really don’t think they’re capable of it now.

Why has no one advocated parliament coming back early from their summer break? Instead they’re doing absolutely nothing as a collective for the next 22 days, at the most crucial time in their history since WW2.

It’s not going to happen. The anti no-dealers are too splintered. Brace for a crash out.

robinph

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would also be a special purpose GONU with the sole purpose of stopping No Deal, and preferably revoke Art 50, and if possible pass a law requiring a two thirds majority to invoke Art 50 again, thus cancelling Art 50 for a generation.

They would never be able to sell a 2/3rds majority requirement, and not sure that it's even required to ensure that an actual reliable view of the population has been met. Requiring a certain percentage turn out and 60%+ to vote for it is more likely, or require a defined majority in each country and approval by each devolved parliament/ assembly.

rob316

RobAMerc wrote: »

So now, according to the express - Germany will loose close to 55% as many jobs as the UK in a no deal Brexit ??
I'm no economist - but are we over egging our importance a bit here ?

EDIT : (Although I see now the source is the University of Leuven Belgium )

We aren't that important but what we represent is what is keeping the EU together. If the WA bends on the backstop and sells out Ireland, its over for the EU. Unity and solidarity is the only thing that ensures the survival of the EU after Brexit.

ancapailldorcha

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think for a GONU to be formed, it would need a Tory to be proposed as PM in order to get enough rebel Tories on board. The obvious choice would be Ken Clarke because he is the father of the house, is retiring at the next election, and is a solid remainer.

It would also be a special purpose GONU with the sole purpose of stopping No Deal, and preferably revoke Art 50, and if possible pass a law requiring a two thirds majority to invoke Art 50 again, thus cancelling Art 50 for a generation.

If they look for a 2nd Ref, it will prolong and intensify the madness. Revoke admits it was a mistake, was passed by a slim majority, the result was polluted by illegal activity on the side of Leave, and that the campaign was ridden by lies on an industrial scale and, of course, corrupt funding.

Agreed on the first paragraph.

I mean, as much as I personally would benefit from and support the idea of just binning the whole fell enterprise it would set a dangerous precedent. People voted Leave in 2016. While that can mean anything from Norway to Canada to Turkey to WTO terms, revoking Article 50 would be telling people that what they vote for only matters when it isn't at odds with what the government or the political class want. You can say that the referendum was advisory but it has been treated by Parliament and the government as binding.

The result is that you'll have a much angrier populace and you'll have handed all sorts of cause for dangerous rhetoric to Nigel Farage & Co who will have no qualms of using this ammunition regardless of what the consequences might be. The People's Vote counters much of this but not all of it. It will have to be the first step to radically changing much of British society at nearly every level if not every level.

McGiver

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Being serious, I don't think that this will ever stop. Brexit is by its very nature and extremist movement. Such movements require an inexhaustible supply of targets to maintain unity or else they become riven with factionalism.

I'm of the same opinion, such movements typically end with self-destruction, many times preceded by a general destruction of their environment (including and up to a war). Hope this lot will only self-destruct and won't cause some major destruction....

Strazdas

McGiver wrote: »

I'm of the same opinion, such movements typically end with self-destruction, many times preceded by a general destruction of their environment (including and up to a war). Hope this lot will only self-destruct and won't cause some major destruction....

Indeed, anything with a radical ideology attached is liable to self destruction. Usually the ideology becomes totally discredited and the followers fall away.

Very likely with Brexit.....the thing is built on lies and delusion.

bluedex

The hardline Brexiteers are a classic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect

brickster69

No meeting planned between Boris and Varadkar

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/boris-johnson-has-no-meeting-scheduled-with-leo-varadkar-1.3983882

BluePlanet

I'm not sure the purpose of a meeting anyway.
The WA is not going to be re-negotiated.
We (and they), all know the UK plan on keeping the border open is not sustainable.
They have a PM that's made a political career shirking personal responsibility.

But i guess it's probably important that Ireland reaches out to them regardless.

VinLieger

BluePlanet wrote: »

I'm not sure the purpose of a meeting anyway.
The WA is not going to be re-negotiated.
We (and they), all know the UK plan on keeping the border open is not sustainable.
They have a PM that's made a political career shirking personal responsibility.

But i guess it's probably important that Ireland reaches out to them regardless.

I think he had planned on repeating May's grand tour of EU capitals so they could show Boris being peacemaker and the EU being intransigent but Cummings seems to have scrapped that.

Stop moaning ffs

BluePlanet wrote: »

I'm not sure the purpose of a meeting anyway.
The WA is not going to be re-negotiated.
We (and they), all know the UK plan on keeping the border open is not sustainable.
They have a PM that's made a political career shirking personal responsibility.

But i guess it's probably important that Ireland reaches out to them regardless.

One of the papers here last week had something on Leo going to tell them there has to be free movement of food and livestock.

See if I can find the link.

trellheim

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Agreed on the first paragraph.

I mean, as much as I personally would benefit from and support the idea of just binning the whole fell enterprise it would set a dangerous precedent. People voted Leave in 2016. While that can mean anything from Norway to Canada to Turkey to WTO terms, revoking Article 50 would be telling people that what they vote for only matters when it isn't at odds with what the government or the political class want. You can say that the referendum was advisory but it has been treated by Parliament and the government as binding.

The result is that you'll have a much angrier populace and you'll have handed all sorts of cause for dangerous rhetoric to Nigel Farage & Co who will have no qualms of using this ammunition regardless of what the consequences might be. The People's Vote counters much of this but not all of it. It will have to be the first step to radically changing much of British society at nearly every level if not every level.

This is entirely correct.
(IMHO of course) The correct view is

1. Issue A50 notice
2. Carry out detailed referendum planning with absolute nailed-on options so you know exactly what you are voting for up to no-deal
3. Require something more than a simple majority to push one or other over the line - say 2/3 majority
4. if no clear winner then status quo - stay in the EU
5. If theres a clear Out We Go by all means do it , not my monkeys.

Any PM doing this would have to self-sacrifice; this is not possible under Johnson.

RobAMerc

rob316 wrote: »

We aren't that important but what we represent is what is keeping the EU together. If the WA bends on the backstop and sells out Ireland, its over for the EU. Unity and solidarity is the only thing that ensures the survival of the EU after Brexit.

Sorry, I think you misunderstood whom I meant by 'We', the 'We' here are the UK - I thought this was a UK published chart.

brickster69

RobAMerc wrote: »

Sorry, I think you misunderstood whom I meant by 'We', the 'We' here are the UK - I thought this was a UK published chart.

Were Belgium the only country to do one and make it public. Can't seem to find one for other states.