Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It needs to be continually reiterated: WE ARE THE EU!

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

Bit cynical

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think that it's now too late for the UK to remain in the EU. Even if there was another referendum and the result was to remain, there is no way that the rest of the EU would welcome that result.

Well, I'm afraid it would have nothing to do with rest of the EU. The UK have the right to withdraw A50 right up to the 31st October and retain full rights, opt-outs, rebates etc. No approval from the EU or other member states required. But they have announced their intention to leave so most likely that is going to happen.

seamus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The disaster for us here, is if the EU might capitulate and facilitate the UK.

There will be no capitulation, because the UK has nothing to offer the EU.

Leaving without a backstop is worse than no deal, for the EU. Abandoning the backstop would be the end of the EU.

"Give me your money and I'll shoot you, but if you don't I'll shoot myself". That's what the UK is demanding.

The UK don't get this and won't get this. They don't understand why the bigger countries don't simply trample the small ones. Because that's what the UK has done for centuries.

At this stage I would rather they leave with no deal at all than listen to them whinge about the withdrawal agreement for the next 50 years.

Water John

Tom Newton Dunn usually has a good measure of what is going on. Yes they seem to think that this is the place Ireland is in.
Again, they are incorrect.

trellheim

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

This bit?

(7)If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister (and, accordingly, the appointed day replaces the day which would otherwise have been the polling day for the next election determined under section 1).

Certainly. Liz sets the day was my point ( on the recommendation of the PM, but it is not the PM's job to set it )

Capt'n Midnight

seamus wrote: »

There will be no capitulation, because the UK has nothing to offer the EU.

But, but , the EU will need the UK to buy stuff, paid for by services exports to the EU.

If the EU give in then the EU will have to create lots of EU jobs in the services industry because the existing rules mean the UK will be blocked from continuing to offer those services.

BonnieSituation

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

ThePanjandrum

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

The Withdrawal Agreement is accepted by a Qualified Majority vote so there is no veto.

https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-1361_en.htm

Kermit.de.frog

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

They better live up to their promises

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZBaB1Px6pQ

Westernyelp

VinLieger wrote: »

A majority of the Conservative and UNIONIST party members when polled support brexit at any cost even if it means the dissolution of the union......

49% is not a majority

However the whole thing is bat**** crazy

Westernyelp

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

They better live up to their promises

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EZBaB1Px6pQ

If they don't The EU will surely rip apart at the seams. the Union will mean nothing

ThePanjandrum

trellheim wrote: »

Certainly. Liz sets the day was my point ( on the recommendation of the PM, but it is not the PM's job to set it )

The Queen accepts the PM's recommendation, she will not change or refuse it so the date is decided by the PM

Spanish Eyes

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

But do we have a veto over decisions made by EU that will affect us regarding Brexit? That is my question.

A pp seems to suggest it is QM vote.

Who is right here, do we have a veto over decisions that may be made that will affect us or not.

I am not expecting you personally to answer, but it it is a question I have nonetheless.

Bit cynical

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But do we have a veto over decisions made by EU that will affect us regarding Brexit? That is my question.

A pp seems to suggest it is QM vote.

Who is right here, do we have a veto over decisions that may be made that will affect us or not.

I am not expecting you personally to answer, but it it is a question I have nonetheless.

We have a veto over future trade deals.

But we don't have a veto over the withdrawal agreement which covers such things as a transition period, existing workers' rights in the UK, the border on the island of Ireland and so forth.

BonnieSituation

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But do we have a veto over decisions made by EU that will affect us regarding Brexit? That is my question.

A pp seems to suggest it is QM vote.

Who is right here, do we have a veto over decisions that may be made that will affect us or not.

I am not expecting you personally to answer, but it it is a question I have nonetheless.

A veto to a decision over what exactly?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-british-passports-issued-in-northern-ireland-falls-1.3983176

Sammy trying to explain away the drop in British passports in Northern Ireland.

Sammy Wilson, the DUP MP for East Antrim and the party’s Brexit spokesman, said he was “not particularly” concerned about the trend of declining British passports and increasing Irish passports.

trellheim

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The Queen accepts the PM's recommendation, she will not change or refuse it so the date is decided by the PM

Its there in black and white , the day is set by the monarch. If they had meant the PM to set it they would have put it in the FTPA. In practice, since the passing of the FTPA as so far the Queen has accepted 1 recommendation on this so far, of Theresa May's go for an early election.

No test of this under VONC has yet been made.

My point I suppose here is it is all very new ground and convention, that most usual of British constitution, does not yet apply - as no-ones done it so far.

BonnieSituation

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/number-of-british-passports-issued-in-northern-ireland-falls-1.3983176

Sammy trying to explain away the drop in British passports in Northern Ireland.

Interesting line:

"The figures do not include Irish citizens in the North who apply for their passports from Dublin."

They're hardly suggesting non-Irish citizens are getting passports now are they? :P

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Tom Newton Dunn usually has a good measure of what is going on. Yes they seem to think that this is the place Ireland is in.
Again, they are incorrect.

I like Tom, he's a very good writer and a nice man.

The Brexiteers are delusional though....they seem to think No Deal will somehow decimate the Irish economy

maebee

Valhallapt wrote: »

Initially I’m surprised by the arrogance of this:
https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1160955101323911169

But then when you put it alongside the rhetoric of the express column posted above, you realize that it’s a case of gross exaggeration. He probably had a sheepish phone call, then went back to his mates to tell them how he put big Phil in his place,

It reminds me of Jay from the inbetweeners, embellishing his love making conquests ;-)

What part of "the UK created the "state" of NI and THEY created the backstop does he not understand?

Imreoir2

Strazdas wrote: »

I like Tom, he's a very good writer and a nice man.

The Brexiteers are delusional though....they seem to think No Deal will somehow decimate the Irish economy

Decimation would be a reduction by 10%, so not too far off. NI actually will be decimated, as will much of the rest of the UK. Ireland will also suffer quite a lot, rough times ahead.

Strazdas

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Decimation would be a reduction by 10%, so not too far off. NI actually will be decimated, as will much of the rest of the UK. Ireland will also suffer quite a lot, rough times ahead.

There's talk of 50k job losses in Ireland with No Deal. The current labour market in the ROI is 2.2m....50k would be about 2.5% of that figure

Even if the jobs were lost, there's nothing to say many of them couldn't be regained in a year or two by Ireland diversifying its export market

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

There's talk of 50k job losses in Ireland with No Deal. The current labour market in the ROI is 2.2m....50k would be about 2.5% of that figure

Even if the jobs were lost, there's nothing to say many of them couldn't be regained in a year or two by Ireland diversifying its export market

A lot of jobs "lost" are actually jobs that would be expected to be added to the economy but because of the conditions created by Brexit, the growth never happens. As you never miss what you never had, this kind of impact won't be felt that much.

The same is true for the other figures for lost jobs on the continent and the UK itself. Most of the lost jobs are actually jobs that were never added rather than redundancies.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A lot of jobs "lost" are actually jobs that would be expected to be added to the economy but because of the conditions created by Brexit, the growth never happens. As you never miss what you never had, this kind of impact won't be felt that much.

The same is true for the other figures for lost jobs on the continent and the UK itself. Most of the lost jobs are actually jobs that were never added rather than redundancies.

The Brexit crowd seem to think Ireland would be annihilated by No Deal, akin to the 2008-09 financial crash. Gambling that the EU will blink at the last moment is crazy stuff.

MrMusician18

Strazdas wrote: »

The Brexit crowd seem to think Ireland would be annihilated by No Deal, akin to the 2008-09 financial crash. Gambling that the EU will blink at the last moment is crazy stuff.

There are certain sector that will be annihilated by no deal. I'm thinking suckler farming in particular. I've posted on this before, but there are thousands of small suckler farms particularly in the BMW region that are so loss making, that it would be cheaper for the subsidy to pay farmers to not farm at all. The destruction of the beef market will see many of these farmers forced to exit the sector. This is a change that one could argue was coming anyway but both socially and economically will be a huge shock to rural areas and will leave a lot of men (many aged 50+) with nothing to do. Government can help of course, but let's be realistic - their means will be limited.

Other sections that will suffer will be construction, as Ireland is a submarket of the UK for a lot of products.

Peregrinus

Bit cynical wrote: »

We have a veto over future trade deals.

But we don't have a veto over the withdrawal agreement which covers such things as a transition period, existing workers' rights in the UK, the border on the island of Ireland and so forth.

We have an effective veto over those aspects of the withdrawal agreement which particularly concern Ireland - specifically, the border. It is unthinkable that the EU would conclude a WA which dealt specifically with Ireland on terms to which the Irish government objected.

It's true that Ireland is not one of the larger states in the Union. But, remember, the EU is dominated by states the size of Ireland and smaller. You can't assemble a qualified majority without them.

pauldla

From Reuters:

UK PM expects EU to cave in to save Ireland from 'no-deal' Brexit: the Sun

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes the European Union will cave in at the last minute and do a Brexit deal with him to “save Ireland”, the Sun newspaper reported on Monday, citing a source.

Ah, so they are saving us, then...?

Peregrinus

The EU is trying to do a deal to save Ireland. It's the UK that's the holdout.

What's missing from Boris's analysis is, if the EU is motivated to "save Ireland", a cave which doesn't save Ireland is not to be expected. And the cave which Boris is demanding doesn't save Ireland; on the contrary, it greatly harms Ireland.

So his reported position is a self-defeating one. Is there nobody in his circle who has the wit to see this, and the guts to point it out?

listermint

Peregrinus wrote: »

The EU is trying to do a deal to save Ireland. It's the UK that's the holdout.

What's missing from Boris's analysis is, if the EU is motivated to "save Ireland", a cave which doesn't save Ireland is not to be expected. And the cave which Boris is demanding doesn't save Ireland; on the contrary, it greatly harms Ireland.

So his reported position is a self-defeating one. Is there nobody in his circle who has the wit to see this, and the guts to point it out?

It's full of 'exceptional' people...

RobMc59

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

I have never agreed with brexit and still hope it is stopped,since Johnson has become PM there is a different atmosphere here in the UK-I truly believe he intends to take the UK out with no deal.
I haven't looked on this thread for a while but can see Britain's headlong charge over the cliff is causing tension amongst regular posters as the inevitable fallout will affect Ireland too.
Talk of UK fantasic deals with the US scare me more than brexit.