Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

RobMc59 wrote: »

I have never agreed with brexit and still hope it is stopped,since Johnson has become PM there is a different atmosphere here in the UK-I truly believe he intends to take the UK out with no deal.
I haven't looked on this thread for a while but can see Britain's headlong charge over the cliff is causing tension amongst regular posters as the inevitable fallout will affect Ireland too.
Talk of UK fantasic deals with the US scare me more than brexit.

Remember that all trade deals go through the Ways and Means Committee and that is controlled by the Democrats. The chairperson of that committee has already said if the UK goes against the GFA they will not be rewarded with a trade deal. There are flaws to the UK thinking and unless the EU and Ireland blinks at the last minute, there will be harm as well.

If we do blink at the last minute as well it will reinforce the thinking about the EU moving at the last minute to get a deal and will do just as much harm as no-deal, if not more. Other countries will want a renegotiation of their deals and will try the same tactic. Backing down now will open a can of worms that the EU will not want in other areas as well.

Can you imagine if the EU backs down now and gives the UK an out with the backstop? Let's say it is removed because they commit to a FTA that will remove checks. If the trade talks reach a point where the UK is not happy we are at the same position in 2 years time at the end of the transition with the UK threatening to leave again without a trade deal that will ensure no checks are needed. But this time they will know the EU backs down at the last minute so they will be even more resolute to crash the car again and wait for the EU to move.

Peregrinus

There could not be a less propitious time and circumstance for the UK to be seeking a US FTA than just after a no-deal Brexit, and with Trump in the White House. Really, the only reason a UK government would pursue one at this point is because it would be too politically embarrassing to admit that doing so is a really, really bad idea.

PS: Worth pointing out that while lots of Brexiters have been very gung-ho about the need for a great trade deal with the US, they have said next to nothing about what the UK might seek in such a trade deal, what it might hope to get, and how it might benefit the UK to get it. Just as Brexiters never actually bothered to develop a Brexit policy, which is why the UK is now in the mess it's in, as far as I can see they have never bothered to develop a trade policy either.

This won't end well.

KildareP

Act of self-harm is most damaging to actor shock revelation:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1160947796247232512?s=21

Good grief that this has to be spelled out and even then will still be denounced by many as Project Fear is just... there are no words.

And that Johnson - who now *is* government - has presumably read this is an indication either of the level of bluffing being done or the sheer recklessness of what is about to be carried out under his watch.

kuro68k

I see the US is lining up to rip off a weak and desperate post-brexit UK again today.

johnnyskeleton

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

However any subsequent trade deal could be vetoed.

Like the rest of brexiters you assume wa is a trade deal, it's a stepping stone to one, and uk is not willing take first step despite agreeing to the path.

Mod note:

Dont put words in other posters mouths or attribute to them what you assume they think. Thanks

lawred2

KildareP wrote: »

Act of self-harm is most damaging to actor shock revelation:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1160947796247232512?s=21

Good grief that this has to be spelled out and even then will still be denounced by many as Project Fear is just... there are no words.

And that Johnson - who now *is* government - has presumably read this is an indication either of the level of bluffing being done or the sheer recklessness of what is about to be carried out under his watch.

denounced as 'bollocks'

https://twitter.com/gonzo0909/status/1160953529646891009?s=20

Igotadose

lawred2 wrote: »

denounced as 'bollocks'

https://twitter.com/gonzo0909/status/1160953529646891009?s=20

By some Russian BOT.

UK needs a general strike or work slowdown to get the government to revoke A50. Regular parliamentary procedure has failed.

If not now, there'll be plenty of strikes once no-deal hits.

J Mysterio

Strazdas wrote: »

I like Tom, he's a very good writer and a nice man.

The Brexiteers are delusional though....they seem to think No Deal will somehow decimate the Irish economy

How can the editor of the Sun be a nice man? That's an oxymoron surely.

VinLieger

lawred2 wrote: »

denounced as 'bollocks'

https://twitter.com/gonzo0909/status/1160953529646891009?s=20

Thrived before the EU? Weren't they refereed to as the sick man of Europe before they joined?

20silkcut

Enzokk wrote: »

Remember that all trade deals go through the Ways and Means Committee and that is controlled by the Democrats. The chairperson of that committee has already said if the UK goes against the GFA they will not be rewarded with a trade deal. There are flaws to the UK thinking and unless the EU and Ireland blinks at the last minute, there will be harm as well.

If we do blink at the last minute as well it will reinforce the thinking about the EU moving at the last minute to get a deal and will do just as much harm as no-deal, if not more. Other countries will want a renegotiation of their deals and will try the same tactic. Backing down now will open a can of worms that the EU will not want in other areas as well.

Can you imagine if the EU backs down now and gives the UK an out with the backstop? Let's say it is removed because they commit to a FTA that will remove checks. If the trade talks reach a point where the UK is not happy we are at the same position in 2 years time at the end of the transition with the UK threatening to leave again without a trade deal that will ensure no checks are needed. But this time they will know the EU backs down at the last minute so they will be even more resolute to crash the car again and wait for the EU to move.

Is it now the case that removal of the backstop is not enough now anyway?

Is that what Tony Connolly tweeted about the UK not accepting the level playing field provision of the withdrawal agreement even if the backstop was removed??

prawnsambo

20silkcut wrote: »

Is it now the case that removal of the backstop is not enough now anyway?

Is that what Tony Connolly tweeted about the UK not accepting the level playing field provision of the withdrawal agreement even if the backstop was removed??

Yep. But who knows what exactly Johnson wants, apart from staying on as PM of course. It's all pre-election rhetoric anyway. Best ignored.

Peregrinus

Johnson is either (a) playing chicken, expecting/hoping that the EU will blink first or (b) intentionally working for a no-deal outcome, but positioningh himself to blame others for it.

On the one hand, it seems unlikely that he's playing chicken, since the UK is a Trabant and the EU is an armoured personnel carrier; it's a game he's almost certain to lose, as must be obvious to him.

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that he's intentionally working for a no-deal outcome since it will make it difficult for him to remain in office and, if he does remain in office, it makes it certain that his term of office will be regarded at the time and with hindsight as disastrous for Britain.

So, what gives? How can it be that one of two highly unlikely things must be true?

I think the answer is that, dismal as both these options are, Johnson feels they are the only options he has, and he has chosen whichever of the two he regards as the less awful. But I don't know which it is.

Bit cynical

Peregrinus wrote: »

We have an effective veto over those aspects of the withdrawal agreement which particularly concern Ireland - specifically, the border. It is unthinkable that the EU would conclude a WA which dealt specifically with Ireland on terms to which the Irish government objected.

It's true that Ireland is not one of the larger states in the Union. But, remember, the EU is dominated by states the size of Ireland and smaller. You can't assemble a qualified majority without them.

However the worry for Ireland has never been that some deal would be done that was not satisfactory for Ireland. There's never been pressure from the EU on Ireland to drop its insistence on the backstop for example. The worry rather is that no deal at all would be done.

Bit cynical

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the answer is that, dismal as both these options are, Johnson feels they are the only options he has, and he has chosen whichever of the two he regards as the less awful. But I don't know which it is.

The options would appear to be:

1. Go back to parliament again with the WA. I don't think this is an option after parliament rejecting it three times.

2. Ask for a delay. I don't think there's much appetite for this from within the UK although the EU have said they are open to it.

3. Revoke A50. Not really an option for a pro-Brexit PM elected by his party on the basis he would take the UK out of the EU.

4. Leave on no deal but keep the option open for the EU to propose a revised deal.

With the last option, I'm sure he would love for the EU to come back with a revised deal but he knows this is unlikely. Nevertheless it plays well at home. So as things stand, it is leave on no deal unless he (or the EU) is planning something that no one is expecting.

murphaph

Bit cynical wrote: »

However the worry for Ireland has never been that some deal would be done that was not satisfactory for Ireland. There's never been pressure from the EU on Ireland to drop its insistence on the backstop for example. The worry rather is that no deal at all would be done.

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Stop moaning ffs

The daily attacks and lies about Varadkar get more bizarre by the day. In today’s edition, Leo apparently has threatened to ban British flights from Irish airspace.
We know what the British media are at, but who is orchestrating it and will they be made to answer for it at any point? Do they have a press standards committee or something that can hold them to account does anyone know?

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1161079920350715905?s=21

johnnyskeleton

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The daily attacks and lies about Varadkar get more bizarre by the day. In today’s edition, Leo apparently has threatened to ban British flights from Irish airspace.
We know what the British media are at, but who is orchestrating it and will they be made to answer for it at any point? Do they have a press standards committee or something that can hold them to account does anyone know?

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1161079920350715905?s=21

Just for clarity, that tweet is from today but the artivle was last year and debunked by the journal.ie, amongst others:

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

The options would appear to be:

1. Go back to parliament again with the WA. I don't think this is an option after parliament rejecting it three times.

2. Ask for a delay. I don't think there's much appetite for this from within the UK although the EU have said they are open to it.

3. Revoke A50. Not really an option for a pro-Brexit PM elected by his party on the basis he would take the UK out of the EU.

4. Leave on no deal but keep the option open for the EU to propose a revised deal.

With the last option, I'm sure he would love for the EU to come back with a revised deal but he knows this is unlikely. Nevertheless it plays well at home. So as things stand, it is leave on no deal unless he (or the EU) is planning something that no one is expecting.

You've left out the one option that seems (to me anyway) as the most obvious one.
Have a GE before brexit day (while he can be all things to all voters bar ultra-remainers) and then get the majority that gives him his main priorities; (a) remain on as PM and (b) dump the DUP.

InTheShadows

It hasn't sunk in yet for a lot of people here but they are leaving without a deal in a few weeks. To say preparations here are lacking would be a massive understatement.

reslfj

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

Small countries do not use their veto even when there has to be unanimity among members. It is the nuclear option, which should be avoided at almost any cost. It is simply stupid politics
(It's bad policy for large countries too, but the can better survive)

Small countries should focus on good governance, pursuing rational and achievable goals, postponing silly domestic (personal) fights and getting friends among - in casu - other EU members.

If a matter is vital to a member and worth a veto, there will not be even a QMV 'Yes' in the Council.

The strength of small countries in the EU is getting their voice heard, getting their consistent, skilled, facts driven and respected work known throughout the institutions and being helpful to others when they have a (real) problem.

Lars

VinLieger

InTheShadows wrote: »

It hasn't sunk in yet for a lot of people here but they are leaving without a deal in a few weeks. To say preparations here are lacking would be a massive understatement.

Which is completely untrue but id love to see any evidence you have to support your claim

LordBasil

prawnsambo wrote: »

You've left out the one option that seems (to me anyway) as the most obvious one.
Have a GE before brexit day (while he can be all things to all voters bar ultra-remainers) and then get the majority that gives him his main priorities; (a) remain on as PM and (b) dump the DUP.

Yeah, I think that's likely to happen most. If he can get a majority and get rid of the DUP it would give him the option of a NI only backstop again. Even though he said NI should not be different from the rest of the UK, he knows if No Deal happens on Nov 1st he might be left with no option but to accept that.

The thing Boris wants more than anything is power, now that he has it he will do anything to keep it, including throwing the DUP under the bus. I wouldn't put anything past him.

lawred2

It's kinda funny though watching these Brexiteers boiling in their own piss about Ireland actually having some diplomatic clout.

This is the first time that Ireland couldn't be simply routed over to serve their own insular desires...

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

However the worry for Ireland has never been that some deal would be done that was not satisfactory for Ireland. There's never been pressure from the EU on Ireland to drop its insistence on the backstop for example. The worry rather is that no deal at all would be done.

There are worse things than no deal - a bad deal is worse than a no deal (h.t. May).

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

You've left out the one option that seems (to me anyway) as the most obvious one.
Have a GE before brexit day (while he can be all things to all voters bar ultra-remainers) and then get the majority that gives him his main priorities; (a) remain on as PM and (b) dump the DUP.

Well there's still the possibility of not getting the WA past parliament and I don't think he's a huge fan of the WA himself despite voting for it the last time it was put to parliament.

I do think he wants an election but I think he will probably try to delay it until after brexit.

I agree it is an option though.

prawnsambo

LordBasil wrote: »

Yeah, I think that's likely to happen most. If he can get a majority and get rid of the DUP it would give him the option of a NI only backstop again. Even though he said NI should not be different from the rest of the UK, he knows if No Deal happens on Nov 1st he might be left with no option but to accept that.

The thing Boris wants more than anything is power, now that he has it he will do anything to keep it, including throwing the DUP under the bus. I wouldn't put anything past him.

All the signs are there. An election cabinet, refusal to speak to anyone from the EU27 (for fear that he might be reported as saying something unbrexity), constant appearances around the UK making rabble rousing speeches a la Trump, ditto for his brexity cabinet and pushing a hard line anti-Irish/anti-EU stance in the media. Also getting positive noises from people in the US administration (who actually won't be making those decisions) about 'mini' trade deals.

And it's working. Despite his past flip-flopping political career, he's somehow persuaded people that he's rock solid.

upupup

lawred2 wrote: »

It's kinda funny though watching these Brexiteers boiling in their own piss about Ireland actually having some diplomatic clout.

This is the first time that Ireland couldn't be simply routed over to serve their own insular desires...

If they thought they could get away with it,they would send in the black and tans.

fash

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The daily attacks and lies about Varadkar get more bizarre by the day. In today’s edition, Leo apparently has threatened to ban British flights from Irish airspace.

That was from July 2018 when he said a no deal Brexit could affect flights.

Stop moaning ffs

fash wrote: »

That was from July 2018 when he said a no deal Brexit could affect flights.

It’s popped up again today. These sustained and ever more ridiculous ‘stories’ are just going to get worse as we move closer to the 31st.

Valhallapt

InTheShadows wrote: »

It hasn't sunk in yet for a lot of people here but they are leaving without a deal in a few weeks. To say preparations here are lacking would be a massive understatement.

QFT

While Ireland had done a reasonable good job diversifying exports, the same is not true for imports.

With the collapse of sterling, I’m anecdotally hearing U.K. imports have actually increased in recent weeks. (An element of stock piling also) Look at supermarket shelves, there is large amounts of British made goods on them, there is no plan to substitute them, with the best intentions and their big buying power the multiples can swap to continental brands but that will take months before the supply chains become optimal meaning lots of empty shelves.

As for Imports of raw materials from the U.K. there are a whole series of issues apart from the delays and tariffs, like does the material meet a recognized safety standard within the single market. This will in turn have an impact on exports.