Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

storker

RobAMerc wrote: »

I think this is whats really worrying and to my mind a large driver behind why brexiteers really want Brexit.
The Eu if nothing else has been excellent at managing food quality, human and workers rights - the above is just one of the many fronts the citizens of the UK are being attacked upon from within.

More like "removing controls" than "taking back control". But I think it was obvious from early on that they weren't getting out of the EU only to keep EU controls and protections in place. The UK is likely to end up the wild west of Europe in even more ways than it is currently.

Lackadaisical

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Irish GDP is so heavily distorted by the impact of multinationals that it is now a meaningless number.

Modified GNI is the number we use here now.

Similar should be used for the UK too due to the very distorting effect of the City of London companies on their GDP. It’s also quite seriously distorted versus the real economy.

The UK is also counting a lot of items that are passing through as exports due to it being a logistical and transactional hub and gateway to EU at present. That’s going to change dramatically and I suspect those stats aren’t quite being modeled properly.

GNI would give you a better picture of what’s going to impact non London bubble jobs.

trellheim

prawnsambo wrote: »

No. It has to meet EU standards. Checked before shipping afaik.

Sorry yes slightly misremembered. So if the US can ship 30,000 tons of EU-safe beef then surely they can ship more ? Probably what the UK is hoping anyway

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

Sorry yes slightly misremembered. So if the US can ship 30,000 tons of EU-safe beef then surely they can ship more ? Probably what the UK is hoping anyway

Why would they though? Its more expensive to meet EU standards and the US are going to be the ones dictating the terms not the UK so they arent exactly going to be looking to put more costs on their side when they don't need to.

reslfj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Irish GDP is so heavily distorted by the impact of multinationals that it is now a meaningless number.

Modified GNI is the number we use here now.

Indeed. The Irish government and the EU still refer to it though.

prawnsambo wrote: »

In terms of budgetary analysis and for calculation of each country's payments to the EU, they use modified GNI afaik.

Ireland must strategically realise and plan with losing tax income from big companies routing their profit from elsewhere in EU through Ireland and a low tax rate.

Developed economies must collect large tax revenues. Companies (and rich people) will have to accept they have to pay - and pay heavily too.
EU competition rules already fines companies for not paying enough taxes.


Brexit makes "...it be not now, yet it will come".


Lars

brickster69

reslfj wrote: »

Ireland must strategically realise and plan with losing tax income from big companies routing their profit from elsewhere in EU through Ireland and a low tax rate.

Developed economies must collect large tax revenues. Companies (and rich people) will have to accept they have to pay - and pay heavily too.
EU competition rules already fines companies for not paying enough taxes.


Brexit makes "...it be not now, yet it will come".


Lars

Too late Lars, it has started

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1161231552023584768

Lackadaisical

You have to admire the self grandiose notion that the UK could dictate trade terms to the US, particularly in its current setup with a presidency that is basically a trade isolationist and someone willing to use trade terms to political advantage.

Why exactly do so many commentators seem to think the US would, for example, allow the UK to operate a tax and regulatory haven with full access to the US consumer and financial services market? All that would do is undermine jobs in the US.

They’ll get a trade deal but it’ll be as the poor relation without any power. Look at how Trump is treating Canada and Mexico. He didn’t think twice about basically starting a trade war with his next door neighbours.

He moans about the EU because it’s capable of holding its own ground, as it’s a very powerful economic entity in its own right.

He’s probably just sizing up Buckingham Palace as a new golf resort.

Duggie2012

Lackadaisical wrote: »

On the risk to supply of food products after October 31st on Irish supermarket shelves, the one thing I would say is Ireland is a relatively small and easy to supply market - you’re talking 2 or 3 distribution centers for the largest supermarkets and relatively short supply chains.

It will hugely advantage domestic producers of like for like goods, and there are lots of them. That will actually help mitigate the damage to some of our food exports as domestic consumption of locally produced stuff will, certainly in the short term, increase.

The big multinational brands are just that - multinational and will just begin to route products probably from the Benelux and France. A lot of Benelux products are even already even labeled in English (as well as French and Dutch and often German too).

Some things will either become hard to get or become more expensive, although collapsing sterling may buffer that for a good while.

I would suspect the prospect of a major GBP collapse will take a lot of pressure off Irish retailers on this but on the other side of it, you could see massive disruption in the UK itself and issues with companies folding due to higher costs on their ingredients, so I wouldn’t necessarily rely on that either.

Of the Irish supermarkets chains : Dunnes is very, very resourceful and isn’t likely to be caught short. I don’t see Musgraves having issues either. Both companies operate supermarkets in Spain too which means they have access to supply chains beyond Ireland.

Tesco Ireland is not as attached to the mother ship as people seem to think. They’re also a major player in parts of Europe too so, again they’ve access to alternatives.

Lidl and Aldi are German and global so again, I think they’ll be fine somehow.

We could potentially see major issues for M&S food though. Yet, they’re still investing quite heavily here - new store in limerick just announced so, they must have some kind of contingency ideas.

For non food items, E.g. clothes, electronics, etc, very very little of that, in any retailer here, is made in the UK, so it’s really just a matter of shipping boxes slightly differently and not transiting UK supply chains. The way modern logistics works, that’s not all that complicated as there typically isn’t a load of warehousing steps between the manufacturer and the retail outlet. Items are quite often just produced somewhere and then delivered by a logistics operator via whatever route is most effective and absolutely none of that stuff is time sensitive.

all that makes it sound easy. im sure we wont starve anyway.

Lackadaisical

Duggie2012 wrote: »

all that makes it sound easy. im sure we wont starve anyway.

I’m not saying it’s easy but it’s also not the disaster that is being painted by UK commentators. They’re quite good at their own version of “project fear” too. We aren’t the ones ripping up our largest and deepest trade arrangements or undermining all of our domestic and foreign businesses by completely dismantling the whole underlying regulatory environment, market access and even currency.

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

Too late Lars, it has started

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1161231552023584768

Joe seems to have forgotten that the Eurozone crisis started in late 2009.

VinLieger

Duggie2012 wrote: »

all that makes it sound easy. im sure we wont starve anyway.

We definitely won't starve, we can feed around 35 million people with what we produce, whereas the UK can only produces around 61% of the food it requires

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

Joe seems to have forgotten that the Eurozone crisis started in late 2009.

Brickster also seems to be ignoring this is being triggered by the US/China trade war and Brexit is a flea bite compared to the trouble that can potentially cause.

brickster69

Lackadaisical wrote: »

You have to admire the self grandiose notion that the UK could dictate trade terms to the US, particularly in its current setup with a presidency that is basically a trade isolationist and someone willing to use trade terms to political advantage.

Why exactly do so many commentators seem to think the US would, for example, allow the UK to operate a tax and regulatory haven with full access to the US consumer and financial services market? All that would do is undermine jobs in the US.

They’ll get a trade deal but it’ll be as the poor relation without any power. Look at how Trump is treating Canada and Mexico. He didn’t think twice about basically starting a trade war with his next door neighbours.

He moans about the EU because it’s capable of holding its own ground, as it’s a very powerful economic entity in its own right.

He’s probably just sizing up Buckingham Palace as a new golf resort.

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

Professor Moriarty

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I’m not saying it’s easy but it’s also not the disaster that is being painted by UK commentators. They’re quite good at their own version of “project feat” too. We aren’t the ones ripping up our largest and deepest trade arrangements or undermining all of our domestic and foreign businesses by completely dismantling the whole underlying regulatory environment, market access and even currency.

While simultaneously shredding the last vestiges of goodwill that their closest neighbours might have for them. Their behaviour throughout the past three years has been appalling and insulting. A lesson in stupidity, politically and diplomatically.

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

That would be the EU-Japan trade deal.

Lackadaisical

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

For a president who promised protectionism ?!? Seems very unlikely.

ilovesmybrick

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

I think you'll find that the biggest free trade deal in the world is between the EU and Japan covering more than 600 million people...which the UK is leaving being part of for the possibility of a deal with the US, so covering approximately 400 million people.

funkey_monkey

Will Ireland still be using the RAF for air cover or is that likely to move to an EU country?
Does the current situation mean that UK monitor Irish skies and act to protect Ireland or do Ireland monitor and then request action? The latter would have a time delay associated but would keep control here.

prawnsambo

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I think you'll find that the biggest free trade deal in the world is between the EU and Japan covering more than 600 million people...which the UK is leaving being part of for the possibility of a deal with the US, so covering approximately 400 million people.

Also bigger in terms of combined GDP.

VinLieger

prawnsambo wrote: »

That would be the EU-Japan trade deal.

The ignorant and oblivious arrogance is quite astonishing

serfboard

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Apparently thiings will be ok for the UK due to their contingency planning being done by PM Johnson (according to the CEO of Next)...

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/next-boss-says-britain-can-avoid-no-deal-brexit-disorder-bbc-1.3984874

The Irish Times wrote:

Next chief executive Simon Wolfson, a prominent leave supporter ...

That's all I need to read there.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

You would think getting the biggest free trade deal in the world sorted would be a feather in the cap of Trump with an election coming up.

A few rousing speeches by Boris and Nigel should just about be enough for him to get another term.

Forgive me, my geography is poor. How far is it from Dover to Calais? How far is it from Dover to New York?

reslfj

brickster69 wrote: »

Too late Lars, it has started

https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1161231552023584768

What does some German worries over the future of world growth have to do with Ireland having to rethink the viability of its low corporate tax rates.

Nothing.

Lars

PS! The German economy is larger and much stronger than the UK's. Germany can do much that the UK can't afford even before Brexit - let alone a 'No Deal Brexit. But " Gegen Trumpheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens " /modernised from Talbot

brickster69

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Forgive me, my geography is poor. How far is it from Dover to Calais? How far is it from Dover to New York?

No idea. Pretty sure it is less than Calais to Tokyo or Calais to Montevideo

prawnsambo

brickster69 wrote: »

No idea. Pretty sure it is less than Calais to Tokyo or Calais to Montevideo

And of course one of them is all you've got*. The latter two are as well as everything else. Can you actually post something meaningful?



*Assuming you get it

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

No idea. Pretty sure it is less than Calais to Tokyo or Calais to Montevideo

Google is my friend.

Dover to Calais: 52 miles - 90 minutes
Dover to New York: 3,526 miles - 135 hours

Best deal ever. MAGA.

prawnsambo

joeysoap wrote: »

ireland will never be be able to provide air cover to protect our skies. Never. But Uk only do it to protect their own territory, in the event of a war, we would probably be collateral damage.

I don't think you mean this, but are you suggesting that the UK just disappears after brexit?

L1011

Duggie2012 wrote: »

judging on that graphic wouldnt the netherlands be screwed on a lot of things. way more than us no??

That's physical flow via Rotterdam rather than them producing much food.

joeysoap

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think you mean this, but are you suggesting that the UK just disappears after brexit?

No, of course not. When uk detects Russian aircraft of our west coast it their its their own territory they are protecting by sending up fighter aircraft in response. It’s suits our ‘neutrality’ too.

prawnsambo

joeysoap wrote: »

No, of course not. When uk detects Russian aircraft of our west coast it their its their own territory they are protecting by sending up fighter aircraft in response. It’s suits our ‘neutrality’ too.

Yes. But what point are you making? And what's it got to do with brexit?