Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

cryptocurrency

Strazdas wrote: »

It didn't need to. It is a peace treaty with the aim of 'promoting peace and reconciliation on the island of Ireland'. Reinstating the (controversial and deeply unpopular) hard border from the Troubles could not possibly tie in with that aim.

Imagine if Angela Merkel announced tomorrow she was rebuilding the border between west and east Germany.

You are correct, the UK has no interest, zero, none , in the collapse of the peace process.

What it does have an interest in is leaving the EU, upholding the will of the vote and saving its bacon from the eventual explosion of the EU.

cryptocurrency

trellheim wrote: »

An interesting proposition. He cannot do it by himself - barred by FTPA.

As it stands since May called that disastrous election in 2017, its a 5 year parliament to 2022

there are only two ways out before 5 years up

a) Vote of no confidence

b) over 2/3 of the HoC vote for it.

So the assumption is that Labour would vote for it ( in the meantime, carefully entangling Labour in the burning ship ). The numbers and the focus groups look like they have been done

Labour have always said they want another GE so the assumption is they would . The last and most interesting point here is that if you DO vote for one, its 25 WORKING days of no parliamentary business - at least 5 weeks - and with Parliament out of office you cant stop brexit in the House until everyone's back


House returns 3 September and Brexit date is 31 October..... predict some of the craziest shenanigans you have ever seen between those dates

Even Dominic Grieve has accepted he has lost. This is over, brexit will happen, it’s just a case if will the European leaders force Brussels to throw Ireland under the bus or will Leo do the humiliating climb down to save us.

Boris has doubled down and doubled down again and has all the momentum with him for the GE. Labour are far less supported then even the dismal poll numbers show and Lib Dems are the Lib Dems, 18% would be a dream for them.

cryptocurrency

declanflynn wrote: »

Another tan, we need to take back control of our borders

How can you get away with using terms like that on this thread. Can you please try and post some mature answers and stay on topic. Showing your inner frustration by calling people names is not needed.

Now, this out come on where we are with Brexit was obvious to many of us who follow the rollercoaster of international affairs as soon as the backstop was mentioned.

The security apparatuses of both London and Washington were not going to let it fly. I can’t believe how naive the people in Brussels were to even think it had a hope.

Strazdas

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are correct, the UK has no interest, zero, none , in the collapse of the peace process.

What it does have an interest in is leaving the EU, upholding the will of the vote and saving its bacon from the eventual explosion of the EU.

The UK could leave the EU at any moment if that was about to happen. It could trigger A50 and leave the following morning (the two year A50 period is not mandatory).

cryptocurrency

The EU will become more and more protectionist as it heads south. Looks at the progress for the EU In the last 30 years compared to the rest of the world, it’s going backwards.

UK just wants to leave to join the global party but the hysterical EU is acting like a psycho ex who won’t let someone go.

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

Bolton was spotted with the Vote Leave crew on the day the result was announced. So he'd be a fan of brexit I suppose.

Edit: Found it. Pictured with that expert on Irish history Daniel Hannan.

Wow!

Shocked to see him there, though I shouldnt be. Its like the smoking gun. Bolton has been meddling in other nations business all his life. Sneaky, mischievous hawk up to no good. What company these Brexiteers keep.

The links between Brexit and Trump administration deepen all the time. All these fellas hanging out together and making their nasty little right wing plans. People like Hannan are too stupid to see the big picture.

cryptocurrency

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Erm London invented and agreed to the backstop. Your memory seems more volatile than cryprocurrency prices

May and Oillie Robins did. They had to get it through parliament before it even meant anything and it yanked worse then any vote in history. May and Robins May have negotiated for the UK but they still had to bring it back to Westminster before it was worth anything more then a dish and chip wrapper. It failed so badly and now when you hear every delusional politician say the “WA is closed” without parliament approval then it just goes to show how much contempt the EU holds for democracy.

John Bolton was 100% right with his attack on the EU and it being anti democratic. They have no left the UK with no choice.

cryptocurrency

J Mysterio wrote: »

Wow!

Shocked to see him there, though I shouldnt be. Its like the smoking gun. Bolton has been meddling in other nations business all his life. Sneaky, mischievous hawk up to no good. What company these Brexiteers keep.

The links between Brexit and Trump administration deepen all the time. All these fellas hanging out together and making their nasty little right wing plans. People like Hannan are too stupid to see the big picture.

Links between Brexit and Trump? Really?

Bolton speaks for the establishment in Washington, especially the security services and they have their reasons for wanting the UK out of the EU. Nowt to do with Trump.

trellheim

May and Oillie Robins did

No, Her Majesty's Government did - including Johnson. They were all free to resign if they didnt like it. They signed up to it and voted it through . It was not ratified by the HoC.

J Mysterio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Links between Brexit and Trump? Really?

Bolton speaks for the establishment in Washington, especially the security services and they have their reasons for wanting the UK out of the EU. Nowt to do with Trump.

Who do you think is the head of the 'establishment' in Washington DC?

Farage has plenty of links to Trump. Vote Leave, Banks and all his cronies. Bannon has been to the UK a lot, Brexiteer whispering. Trump likes Britain Trump (Johnson). Now National Security Hawk Bolton is in the mix. There's plenty more besides.

cryptocurrency

trellheim wrote: »

No, Her Majesty's Government did - including Johnson. They were all free to resign if they didnt like it. They signed up to it and voted it through . It was not ratified by the HoC.

I think you will find the WA caused many resignations and despite the attempts to sell it by May and Robbins, the harsh reality of Geoffrey Cox finished it when it was clear the UK would under its rules till let free. No nation, not even the Faroe Islands , could be expected to sign up to them terms.

The documentary which showed Barneir and Guy behind the scenes plus the collapse in public support finished it.
Leave should insist in Guy Getting more airtime on UK TV as as soon as he opens his mouth he wins 100000 new leave votes. What an odious man.

cryptocurrency

J Mysterio wrote: »

Who do you think is the head of the 'establishment' in Washington DC?

Farage has plenty of links to Trump. Vote Leave, Banks and all his cronies. Bannon has been to the UK a lot, Brexiteer whispering. Trump likes Britain Trump (Johnson). Now National Security Hawk Bolton is in the mix. There's plenty more besides.

Now? Bolton and others had their position on this made up way before trump the president was even a thing. And Banks and Farage were not even on their radar.

J Mysterio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Now? Bolton and others had their position on this made up way before trump the president was even a thing. And Banks and Farage were not even on their radar.

Who do you think appointed Bolton as National Security Advisor?

You are clearly out of your depth.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: I've cleared up a few posts. Serious and civil discussion only please.

Imreoir2

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK has said it will not put checks on the border, IRE has said the same as well as the EU. So the GFA will not be broken.

What you are saying is checks done away from the border will break the GFA now ?

Saying you will do something, while utterly failing to show how you intend to achieve it, while at the same time implementing a policy that requires you to do the thing you say you will not do, is disengenious.

If I commit a murder, and am caught with blood on my hands, but confidently insist that I am not going to jail as I am beng lead away in handcuffs, and this insistance is despit being entirely unable to explain how on earth I will pull it off, would you believe that I will not be going to jail because I said so or might you be a little sceptical?

Of course, any border checks between NI and the rest of Ireland, be they located 5 meters or 5 miles from the border are a breach of the GFA. What on earth makes you think moving them a few miles down the road makes a jot of difference?

Imreoir2

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU will become more and more protectionist as it heads south. Looks at the progress for the EU In the last 30 years compared to the rest of the world, it’s going backwards.

UK just wants to leave to join the global party but the hysterical EU is acting like a psycho ex who won’t let someone go.

The EU is one of the wealthiest regions of the Planet, the rest of the world is growing faster than the EU because it is vastly poorer. If you are dirt poor and double your wealth you are still dirt poor. If you are rich and you increase you wealth by 10% you have gained a lot.

Hopefully the UK will not have to learn what it is like to be a developing nation, high growth but still having crushing poverty is not a better situation to low growth but still having prosperity.

The UK can leave at any time, they chose to stick around for two years after the referendum, and they chose to ask for an extension. It's not the EUs fault that the UK can't work up the courage to jump.

Lackadaisical

cryptocurrency wrote: »

...

UK just wants to leave to join the global party but the hysterical EU is acting like a psycho ex who won’t let someone go.

Let me just dramatise it for a moment (since we appear to be using that kind of language):

If anyone’s behaving like a psycho ex it’s the UK, both towards the EU : “I’m leaving!” “OK fine” “aghhhh! If you don’t give me full access to all your stuff I’ll destroy my own economy”. “Why are you’re still here!?” “You made me do it! It’s all your fault! Rant ... rant ... rant!”

And towards Ireland : “I don’t remember why we broke up! You’re not really independent anyway are you! Now just put on these handcuffs and get into the boot while I go for a high speed drive along these economic and political cliffs! Also, since when have you been seeing other countries!?”

All this whole also flirting like crazy with Donald Trump!!?!

Yet we’re accused off being the psycho ex?

BonnieSituation

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Even Dominic Grieve has accepted he has lost. This is over, brexit will happen, it’s just a case if will the European leaders force Brussels to throw Ireland under the bus or will Leo do the humiliating climb down to save us.

Boris has doubled down and doubled down again and has all the momentum with him for the GE. Labour are far less supported then even the dismal poll numbers show and Lib Dems are the Lib Dems, 18% would be a dream for them.

Why would we throw ourselves under the bus at this remove?

What do we, the EU have to gain from this?

I'm sure you have clear concise and referenced answers.

Peregrinus

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK has said it will not put checks on the border, IRE has said the same as well as the EU. So the GFA will not be broken.

What you are saying is checks done away from the border will break the GFA now ?

Are you serious? Why would locating checks and controls away from the border make any difference at all to impact on the GFA? How is the location even remotely relevant?

Peregrinus

brickster69 wrote: »

But the GFA does not mention border infrastructure is not allowed does it ! It only mentions military outposts. It is in black and white !

That's because the border infrastructure was already gone before the GFA was negotiated, so it didn't need to be addressed.

Seriously, you didn't know this?

Borderhopper

Time to come back in a week, I think, when the thread is back on track. Seriously, though, I seem to remember the same posts in previous incarnations of this thread.

Peregrinus

Borderhopper wrote: »

Time to come back in a week, I think, when the thread is back on track. Seriously, though, I seem to remember the same posts in previous incarnations of this thread.

A week may be too soon, to be honest.

Currently the ball is very much in the UK's court. Nothing will change until Johnson makes a move of some kind, either to clarify what track he's on (Is he really targetting a no-deal Brexit? Or is he really banking on the EU caving?) or to choose some new tack. And there's a general feeling that it's impossible for Johnson to do any of those things until after the Tory party conference at the end of September.

His hand might be forced earlier by various possible actions in Parliament, but that can't happen unless Parlaiment is sitting, and Parliament doesn't sit until 3 September.

So, come back on 3 September. But, even then, unless something meaningful happens in Parliament, there may not be much movement until the end of September. Until then, we'll just recycle the arguments we've already had.

fash

brickster69 wrote: »

The UK has said it will not put checks on the border, IRE has said the same as well as the EU. So the GFA will not be broken.

What you are saying is checks done away from the border will break the GFA now ?

Even the UK accepts that checks away from the border breach the GFA - please read the Joint Report

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU will become more and more protectionist as it heads south. Looks at the progress for the EU In the last 30 years compared to the rest of the world, it’s going backwards. .

You mean like establishing the most amount of free trade agreements in world history?

It is the UK that proposes to become more protectionist- pulling out of all international agreements and obligations - not the EU.

fash

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are correct, the UK has no interest, zero, none , in the collapse of the peace process.

Which is one of the reasons why it is in our interest to see the UK destabilized and quickly dismembered.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

What it does have an interest in is leaving the EU, upholding the will of the vote and saving its bacon from the eventual explosion of the EU.

clearly the UK has no interest in upholding the will of the vote - since no-one voted for no deal, and the vast majority voted for membership of the SM and CU.
We'll see which entities survive longer - the EU it the UK. Want to place a bet?

Peregrinus

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU will become more and more protectionist as it heads south. Looks at the progress for the EU In the last 30 years compared to the rest of the world, it’s going backwards.

The EU's declining share of world trade is the flip side to the rise of developing economies such as China and India. If you think that Brexit is somehow going to reverse the rise of China and India, well, I have some dodgy cryptocurrency to sell you.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK just wants to leave to join the global party but the hysterical EU is acting like a psycho ex who won’t let someone go.

. . . .Some very dodgy cryptocurrency. This statement could not be more factually inaccurate. Brexit will reduce the UK's participation in the global economy as it involves the UK leaving the largest and deepest free trading system the world has ever seen in order to try and create a smaller and shallower one of its own. The delay in Brexit actually happening is entirely due to the UK's desire to delay it.

Borderhopper

Peregrinus wrote: »

Borderhopper wrote: »

Time to come back in a week, I think, when the thread is back on track. Seriously, though, I seem to remember the same posts in previous incarnations of this thread.

A week may be too soon, to be honest.

Currently the ball is very much in the UK's court. Nothing will change until Johnson makes a move of some kind, either to clarify what track he's on (Is he really targetting a no-deal Brexit? Or is he really banking on the EU caving?) or to choose some new tack. And there's a general feeling that it's impossible for Johnson to do any of those things until after the Tory party conference at the end of September.

His hand might be forced earlier by various possible actions in Parliament, but that can't happen unless Parlaiment is sitting, and Parliament doesn't sit until 3 September.

So, come back on 3 September. But, even then, unless something meaningful happens in Parliament, there may not be much movement until the end of September. Until then, we'll just recycle the arguments we've already had.

Excellent post. There does seem to be an impression that Johnson has a master plan, and it’s so inconceivably brilliant that we can’t figure it out. Once it’s revealed we’ll be left marveling at his genius. In my more pessimistic moments I doubt that there is a plan at all, and they’re bumbling and crashing about just like Mays government, but with far greater energy to give the appearance of progress.

I’ve no doubt that Johnson is fairly intelligent, well read and about as stereotypical a cad as possible, which appeals to a certain cohort of the British public. However, intelligence does not equal competence, something I have seen many times in the medical field.

I think an election after 31/10 is a massive risk, considering that many difficulties are predicted and that Johnson is almost universally accepted to be a self serving liar. Add to this the fact that this will be his first, proper election campaign where it’s all on him (mayor of London was seen as a bit of a joke by Londoners at the time) and that he seems not to be a great public speaker, and the result may not be as clear cut as predicted. The British public are notoriously fickle, and quick to turn against (or support!) the easiest target. 20 years ago Charles and Camilla and the upper echelons of the royal family were vilified by the public. Contrast that with now.

Borderhopper

Just occurred to me, in an election, the remain side is likely to be split, but targeted actions such as the recent by election would be possible. If a unity remain candidate was agreed for Johnson’s constituency, what would be the likely result. It’s just my impression that he’s not too popular over the 3rd runway at heathrow carry on. Would the brexit party split the vote, as claiming Johnson’s scalp would be a coup for them as well?

Seth Brundle

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK just wants to leave to join the global party but the hysterical EU is acting like a psycho ex who won’t let someone go.

Nobody has stopped the UK from leaving but the UK itself. They can leave today if they wish.
As for the EU, how does remaining calm come across as hysterical?
Stop with the populist nonsense!

woohoo!!!

Prediction: after no deal Brexit the sunlit uplands will appear further away than ever but unicorns will still chase it. Meanwhile the EU will take the necessary steps to minimise its exposure, file future deal under the to do list and get on with tackling the issues that matter for it's member states.

The UK needs to be left alone so they can figure out what they do want that's based on today's reality, not of the Victorian age. No point engaging with belief and feelings, it always gets in the way of doing business.