Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

murphaph

Borderhopper wrote: »

Just occurred to me, in an election, the remain side is likely to be split, but targeted actions such as the recent by election would be possible. If a unity remain candidate was agreed for Johnson’s constituency, what would be the likely result. It’s just my impression that he’s not too popular over the 3rd runway at heathrow carry on. Would the brexit party split the vote, as claiming Johnson’s scalp would be a coup for them as well?

Interesting idea. His majority is not rock solid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

If there was a unity remain candidate and the BXP ran a candidate I think he would almost certainly be unseated based on those numbers.

c.p.w.g.w

murphaph wrote: »

Interesting idea. His majority is not rock solid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

If there was a unity remain candidate and the BXP ran a candidate I think he would almost certainly be unseated based on those numbers.

Could he potential change his constituency in which he'll run in?

Peregrinus

murphaph wrote: »

Interesting idea. His majority is not rock solid:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

If there was a unity remain candidate and the BXP ran a candidate I think he would almost certainly be unseated based on those numbers.

It depends on (a) how successful the Remain candidate was at drawing votes away from Labour (and the Tories), and (b) how successful the Brexit candidate was at drawing votes away from the Tories (and Labour). And a four-way split like this is very hard to predict.

Of course, this is exactly the four-way split that we saw in the Brecon & Radnorshire bye-election, and the unity Remain candidate took that seat despite the hard/crash-out Brexit vote being higher than the remain vote. So it can be done. But (a) be wary of projecting bye-election results on to a general election, and (b) bear in mind that, based on the referendumr results, Uxbridge & SR leaned much more towards Leave (57%) than B&R did (52%).

Peregrinus

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Could he potential change his constituency in which he'll run in?

Yes, if he can find a safer one for which there is a vacancy for Tory candidate. But it would look like an admission of weakness, and might be electorally harmful to the party at large. Quite frankly, if the Tories can't win Uxbridge and South Ruislip then they are cruising for a signficant overall defeat, and that's not something Johnson can afford to admit, even implicitly. But switching constituency to a safer one would look like just such an implicit admission.

prawnsambo

trellheim wrote: »

An interesting proposition. He cannot do it by himself - barred by FTPA.

As it stands since May called that disastrous election in 2017, its a 5 year parliament to 2022

there are only two ways out before 5 years up

a) Vote of no confidence

b) over 2/3 of the HoC vote for it.

So the assumption is that Labour would vote for it ( in the meantime, carefully entangling Labour in the burning ship ). The numbers and the focus groups look like they have been done

Labour have always said they want another GE so the assumption is they would . The last and most interesting point here is that if you DO vote for one, its 25 WORKING days of no parliamentary business - at least 5 weeks - and with Parliament out of office you cant stop brexit in the House until everyone's back

House returns 3 September and Brexit date is 31 October..... predict some of the craziest shenanigans you have ever seen between those dates

If the Tories table a motion for a GE on the 3rd, vote on the 4th and it's passed (and Corbyn has at least nailed himself to one side of the fence on that one), an election can easily be held before b-day 3. I really don't think he'll go for a date after that.

Stop moaning ffs

How long does it take to hold an election from time it’s called to polling day?
It’s at least a few months no? Or rather, how quickly could one be held?

Peregrinus

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How long does it take to hold an election from time it’s called to polling day?
It’s at least a few months no? Or rather, how quickly could one be held?

Much quicker than that. The poll has to be held within 25 working days of the dissolution of parliament. That's five weeks, or a bit over if there are bank holidays intervening.

Typically when a PM decides to hold an election (which, in the past, was normally before they had to) they will announce it some time before dissolving parliament, so there may be more than 5 weeks between the announcement and the poll. But usually not a lot more.

Tell me how

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How long does it take to hold an election from time it’s called to polling day?
It’s at least a few months no? Or rather, how quickly could one be held?

6 weeks I think is minimum time.

But, to trigger an election there are two paths, both if which require parliamentary involvement and this is in recess for another 3 weeks.

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

How long does it take to hold an election from time it’s called to polling day?
It’s at least a few months no? Or rather, how quickly could one be held?

The FTPA states that Parliament is dissolved 25 working days before the GE date. So in theory five weeks plus a few days. I think elections are always held on Thursdays, but not 100% on that.

Edit: I think that the earliest date would be 17th October. Assuming Thursday election day, I don't think the niceties could be wrapped up and parliament dissolved before 5th September (a Thursday), so that probably rules out the 10th October.

spacecoyote

brickster69 wrote: »

Also will predict for the next 12 months.

A. EU will cut interest rates into further negative territory
B. Printing presses will start up again to purchase junk bonds no one else will buy
C. Inflation will not fall
D. A Euro bank will be bailed out contrary to EU rules

Ah OK, so you're basically making some predictions based on things that have pretty much already been telegraphed by the ECB to the markets such as further rate cuts & further monetary stimulus, and a natural consequence of those types of actions would be that inflation would not fall.

Hardly predictions are they? More like restating things that most people know already so that you can claim that you're nostradamus reborn at some later date.

Feels like a cheap attempt at a win really to be honest

Dymo

Borderhopper wrote: »

Time to come back in a week, I think, when the thread is back on track. Seriously, though, I seem to remember the same posts in previous incarnations of this thread.

I have one poster on ignore, but it's pointless as everyone takes the bait and quotes them while trying to argue with him.

Gerry T

Peregrinus wrote: »

That's because the border infrastructure was already gone before the GFA was negotiated, so it didn't need to be addressed.

Seriously, you didn't know this?

Doesn't it also say that no additional barriers to trade or peoples movement would be introduced. So while not specifically mentioning a border, or customs check or passport control these all break the GFA.

Water John

There is talk of a shortage of HRT. Johnson won't know what hit him if he is attacked by a group of menopausal women.

Stop moaning ffs

Didn’t see this posted but it does indeed seem like they’re going for an election.
This is going to be a very strange hectic few months

https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1161355489508319236?s=21

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Didn’t see this posted but it does indeed seem like they’re going for an election.
This is going to be a very strange hectic few months

https://twitter.com/channel4news/status/1161355489508319236?s=21

There was a screenshot tweeted that was linked earlier. Some guy managed to tweet a screenshot of his inbox mistakenly and there was an email with a GE2019 subject line.

Not that it was much of a secret anyway. Johnson can do nothing with the wafer thin majority he has. And likely to shrink even more.

Stop moaning ffs

prawnsambo wrote: »

There was a screenshot tweeted that was linked earlier. Some guy managed to tweet a screenshot of his inbox mistakenly and there was an email with a GE2019 subject line.

Not that it was much of a secret anyway. Johnson can do nothing with the wafer thin majority he has. And likely to shrink even more.

Really is a massive gamble for him but he’s probably facing a VONC anyways so might as well get out in front of it

trellheim

Or as is so popular with Cummings etc this is all misdirection , dead cat to make you look the other way ?

I haven't seen a raft of denials yet from the Saj, Gove, anyone

steddyeddy

Well we might be off to project reality. Inflation in the UK jumps 2.1 per cent. The most worrying thing for me is the sentence at the foot of the article "rising costs for UK factories". Recession is generally occurs from a combination of several factors. What the ideological brexiters negate is that increasing the cost of key elements of an economy such as infrastructure, transport and services will have a knock on effect on every sector of the British economy. Put bluntly, an increased cost of trade is one impact of Brexit that make doing business in the UK much harder and a lot less desirable for foreign investors.

Inflation in Britain accelerated to 2.1 per cent in July, confounding forecasts for a slowdown.

Economists had expected annual inflation to drop to 1.9 per cent from 2 per cent in June. However, official data revealed an increase in consumer price inflation, driven by rises in the prices of computer games, toys, hotel rooms, clothing and shoes.

Analysts said inflation is likely to be supported in coming months by the recent decline in the pound, sparked by fears of a no-deal Brexit, as well as strong pay growth. Wages rose at the fastest pace in 11 years between April and June compared with a year earlier, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Tuesday.

“The recent weakening in sterling will provide some upward pressure on prices as firms begin to feel the pinch of higher import costs,” said Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.

Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said she expects inflation to exceed the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for most of next year, pointing also to UK factories’ rising costs.

murphaph

Peregrinus wrote: »

It depends on (a) how successful the Remain candidate was at drawing votes away from Labour (and the Tories), and (b) how successful the Brexit candidate was at drawing votes away from the Tories (and Labour). And a four-way split like this is very hard to predict.

Of course, this is exactly the four-way split that we saw in the Brecon & Radnorshire bye-election, and the unity Remain candidate took that seat despite the hard/crash-out Brexit vote being higher than the remain vote. So it can be done. But (a) be wary of projecting bye-election results on to a general election, and (b) bear in mind that, based on the referendumr results, Uxbridge & SR leaned much more towards Leave (57%) than B&R did (52%).

I also suspect that a West London Labour voter is almost certainly a remainer. It's the Labour heartlands in the former industrialised regions that have wide scale Brexit support. The vast majority of those Brexit voters in Uxbridge & SR will have voted Tory in the last GE IMO.

I suspect if Johnson is under threat by such a tactic that he will be parachuted into a safer seat.

Quin_Dub

murphaph wrote: »

I also suspect that a West London Labour voter is almost certainly a remainer. It's the Labour heartlands in the former industrialised regions that have wide scale Brexit support. The vast majority of those Brexit voters in Uxbridge & SR will have voted Tory in the last GE IMO.

I suspect if Johnson is under threat by such a tactic that he will be parachuted into a safer seat.

As others have said though , the optics of that would be horrendous. It might ensure Boris gets re-elected , but how many other Tory seats will be lost because of the narrative of "The PM is running scared".

I think his view will be either he wins and is PM or he's all the way out.

I cannot see Boris staying on in opposition if an Election doesn't go in his favour.

Far better in his view to hurl from the ditch getting paid handsomely whilst others try to recover from the disaster of his making..

He might then be able to ride in on his white charger in a few years time to "save" them all from the ravages of whatever state what's left of the UK finds itself in.

Jizique

Quin_Dub wrote: »

As others have said though , the optics of that would be horrendous. It might ensure Boris gets re-elected , but how many other Tory seats will be lost because of the narrative of "The PM is running scared".

I think his view will be either he wins and is PM or he's all the way out.

I cannot see Boris staying on in opposition if an Election doesn't go in his favour.

Far better in his view to hurl from the ditch getting paid handsomely whilst others try to recover from the disaster of his making..

He might then be able to ride in on his white charger in a few years time to "save" them all from the ravages of whatever state what's left of the UK finds itself in.

Did he just call his opponents collaborators or did he simply accuse them of collaborating with the EU?

serfboard

Dymo wrote: »

I have one poster on ignore, but it's pointless as everyone takes the bait and quotes them while trying to argue with him.

I have more than one poster on ignore, and like you I am a bit disappointed to see otherwise sensible posters here feeding what is very obvious trolling.

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well we might be off to project reality. Inflation in the UK jumps 2.1 per cent.

The UK might be about to witness something not seen since the 1970s - stagflation:

The term stagflation, a portmanteau of stagnation and inflation ... is a situation in which the inflation rate is high [and] the economic growth rate slows

J Mysterio

Good stuff from Philip Hammond today.

Former chancellor says no-deal Brexit 'as much of a betrayal of the referendum result' as not leaving EU at all

Philip Hammond has launched a blistering attack on Boris Johnson, saying the new prime minister is allowing "unelected people" to "pull the strings" in Downing Street.

The former chancellor attacked "absurd" claims from "hardliners" about a no-deal Brexit and said the first weeks of the new government were "not encouraging".

The comments will be seen as an attack on Dominic Cummings, Mr Johnson's top policy adviser.

Mr Hammond, one of the most senior MPs working to block a no-deal Brexit, also attacked Dominic Raab, saying the foreign secretary's claim that the public had voted for such an outcome was "a total travesty of the truth".

...Mr Hammond said Mr Johnson's demand that the EU scrap the controversial Northern Ireland backstop part of the current Brexit deal amounted to a "wrecking" strategy.

Writing in The Times, he said: "The unelected people who pull the strings of this government know that this is a demand the EU cannot and will not accede to.

"Not just because they will be stubborn in their defence of the single market (although they will) but because the fragility of their own coalition of 27 means that any attempt on their side to reopen the package would see their unity collapse. They will not take that chance and the smart people in Whitehall know it."

...Mr Hammond insisted that no-deal was "not an acceptable outcome" and criticised Mr Raab's suggestion that the public had voted for it.

He said: "In 2016 the British people were invited to vote for Brexit with a deal, and by a small margin they did so. They were told that a deal to protect Britain's trade with the EU - out largest export market by far - would be 'easy' to do.

"To pretend now that 2016 Leave voters voted for a hard no-deal Brexit is a total travesty of the truth.

As the BBC's 'reality check' had to remind Dominic Raab, now the foreign secretary, the possibility of no-deal was not 'regularly raised' during the referendum campaign."

He added: "Michael Gove put it best in March this year when he said: 'We didn't vote to leave without a deal. That wasn't the message of the campaign I helped lead."

Mr Hammond later told BBC Radio 4's Today that "leaving the European Union without a deal would be just as much of a betrayal as not leaving at all" and insisted that "a means will be delivered" to allow MPs to block no-deal.

The chancellor is one of 20 Tory MPs, including six former cabinet minister, who have written to Mr Johnson warning that his demands on the backstop "set the bar so high that there is no realistic prospect of a deal being done", according to reports.

serfboard

Mr Hammond later told BBC Radio 4's Today that "leaving the European Union without a deal would be just as much of a betrayal as not leaving at all" and insisted that "a means will be delivered" to allow MPs to block no-deal.

The chancellor is one of 20 Tory MPs, including six former cabinet minister, who have written to Mr Johnson warning that his demands on the backstop "set the bar so high that there is no realistic prospect of a deal being done", according to reports.

You'd have to think that this is all playing into the Cummings/Johnson plan of a no-deal exit being stymied by the HOC so that BJ can go to the country and say "I want to (no-deal) leave, but they won't let me! We need a new mandate", and of course once he gets his new five-year mandate, will immediately renege on everything he has promised.

Why will he renege on everything he has promised? Because that's his character.

johnnyskeleton

serfboard wrote: »

You'd have to think that this is all playing into the Cummings/Johnson plan of a no-deal exit being stymied by the HOC so that BJ can go to the country and say "I want to (no-deal) leave, but they won't let me! We need a new mandate", and of course once he gets his new five-year mandate, will immediately renege on everything he has promised.

Why will he renege on everything he has promised? Because that's his character.

Or, that they lose the election, Britain remains or extends, and he can go back to being a hurler from the ditch, as head of the opposition, claiming that everything bad is due to not leaving the EU. Either way he gets to have his fun!

trellheim

Election results for Uxbridge, Johnsons' constituency

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results

Not too big a margin over Labour. Johnson famously was not present when Heathrow 3rd runway was voted on and his constituents will not forget that as otherwise he would have had to vote for it as he was Foreign Secretary and collective responsibility would have caught him, thus betraying what he stood.

He famously said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/2017/05/34784/

Larbre34

Lib Dems should move Zac Goldsmith out to take on Johnson and bring in a young go-getter to the Richmond contest. Goldsmith is every bit as against Heathrow 3R and more aligned with the constituency in other ways

lawred2

J Mysterio wrote: »

Good stuff from Philip Hammond today.

Former chancellor says no-deal Brexit 'as much of a betrayal of the referendum result' as not leaving EU at all

Using Cumming's own tactics against him... These 'unelected/undemocratic' barbs are seeing use for almost everything and everyone these days

Only this time its use is legitimate.

Calina

Larbre34 wrote: »

Lib Dems should move Zac Goldsmith out to take on Johnson and bring in a young go-getter to the Richmond contest. Goldsmith is every bit as against Heathrow 3R and more aligned with the constituency in other ways

Zac Goldsmith is a Tory, is he not?

steddyeddy

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well we might be off to project reality. Inflation in the UK jumps 2.1 per cent. The most worrying thing for me is the sentence at the foot of the article "rising costs for UK factories". Recession is generally occurs from a combination of several factors. What the ideological brexiters negate is that increasing the cost of key elements of an economy such as infrastructure, transport and services will have a knock on effect on every sector of the British economy. Put bluntly, an increased cost of trade is one impact of Brexit that make doing business in the UK much harder and a lot less desirable for foreign investors.

Jumps to 2.1%. Bit different. And wages are growing more quickly as well. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49328855