Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Jumps to 2.1%. Bit different. And wages are growing more quickly as well. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49328855

They aren't a good combination. Obviously given the weakness of the pound, it's not unexpected, but wage rises will also fuel inflation.

Leonard Hofstadter

Calina wrote: »

Zac Goldsmith is a Tory, is he not?

Yes, and in favour of Brexit (including a no-deal one IIRC). His constituency voted Remain by something like a 3:1 margin.

Valhallapt

I see Nancy Pelosi has reiterated her previous comments on a US trade deal

https://twitter.com/AndrewBeatty/status/1161618245532540928

Comments on Twitter point out that she does not do these type of releases unless she has already confirmed she has the votes to block it.

RobMc59

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well we might be off to project reality. Inflation in the UK jumps 2.1 per cent. The most worrying thing for me is the sentence at the foot of the article "rising costs for UK factories". Recession is generally occurs from a combination of several factors. What the ideological brexiters negate is that increasing the cost of key elements of an economy such as infrastructure, transport and services will have a knock on effect on every sector of the British economy. Put bluntly, an increased cost of trade is one impact of Brexit that make doing business in the UK much harder and a lot less desirable for foreign investors.

Inflation in Britain accelerated to 2.1 per cent in July, confounding forecasts for a slowdown.

Economists had expected annual inflation to drop to 1.9 per cent from 2 per cent in June. However, official data revealed an increase in consumer price inflation, driven by rises in the prices of computer games, toys, hotel rooms, clothing and shoes.

Analysts said inflation is likely to be supported in coming months by the recent decline in the pound, sparked by fears of a no-deal Brexit, as well as strong pay growth. Wages rose at the fastest pace in 11 years between April and June compared with a year earlier, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Tuesday.

“The recent weakening in sterling will provide some upward pressure on prices as firms begin to feel the pinch of higher import costs,” said Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.

Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said she expects inflation to exceed the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for most of next year, pointing also to UK factories’ rising costs.

Surely all those negative effects are just what is required to focus public attention on the fact brexit isn't the "have our cake and eat it "scenario promised by Johnson and co in 2016-how anyone here in Britain can think this self inflicted death by a thousand cuts is freedom is beyond me.

Stop moaning ffs

The headline reads ‘treasury shifts cash into euros ahead of brexit’

Can the few posters saying it’s actually the EU that is doomed have a read of this please? Just for some balance and wake up coffee

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/treasury-shifts-cash-into-euros-ahead-of-brexit-kjmjzbx7r

trellheim

well if you are betting on your own currency to tank its a solid move

Laois_Man

J Mysterio wrote: »

Good stuff from Philip Hammond today.

Former chancellor says no-deal Brexit 'as much of a betrayal of the referendum result' as not leaving EU at all

Hammond can threaten all he likes......he cannot force the EU to agree to an extension even if he could force Johnson to request one - and my feeling is the leaders of some EU countries have just about had enough!

Professor Moriarty

Valhallapt wrote: »

I see Nancy Pelosi has reiterated her previous comments on a US trade deal

https://twitter.com/AndrewBeatty/status/1161618245532540928

Comments on Twitter point out that she does not do these type of releases unless she has already confirmed she has the votes to block it.

It's not looking too bright for Johnson's tally ho Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

Hammond can threaten all he likes......he cannot force the EU to agree to an extension even if he could force Johnson to request one - and my feeling is the leaders of some EU countries have just about had enough!

Apart from the fact that Brexit will have a negative effect on every economy in the EU, true solidarity with Ireland would be to agree to offer a further extension to Britain on the basis that it might help a small fellow EU nation.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Apart from the fact that Brexit will have a negative effect on every economy in the EU, true solidarity with Ireland would be to agree to offer a further extension to Britain on the basis that it might help a small fellow EU nation.

Allowing then to burn for a few weeks (before they have an opportunity to be as prepared as possible) and letting them come back with their tails between their legs might be the best solidarity of all. It's the only thing that is going to stop the nonsense which itself is damaging to every economy in the EU!

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Apart from the fact that Brexit will have a negative effect on every economy in the EU, true solidarity with Ireland would be to agree to offer a further extension to Britain on the basis that it might help a small fellow EU nation.

Or to offer us the protective cover of a few of the ECB bazookas, in the shape of low cost long dated loans, and allow some room for borrowing limits to be exceeded. The EU could also offer support for agriculture, and in particular beef and dairy, plus some infrastructure spending - like Metrolink, Dart expansion, Dart Underground, and the M20, plus extra support for the BMW region..

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

Allowing then to burn for a few weeks (before they have an opportunity to be as prepared as possible) and letting them come back with their tails between their legs might be the best solidarity of all. It's the only thing that is going to stop the nonsense which itself is damaging to every economy in the EU!

Which makes the timing of the inevitable GE all the more nuanced for Johnson. Imagine if he called it for mid November - two weeks after crashing out? The EU would (should) mess Britain about so much for those two weeks that he'd be lucky if he wasn't beheaded.

bilston

So now MPs who are opposed to Brexit are "collaborating" with the EU.

I suggest Johnson learns to become more careful with his language

LordBasil

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Apart from the fact that Brexit will have a negative effect on every economy in the EU, true solidarity with Ireland would be to agree to offer a further extension to Britain on the basis that it might help a small fellow EU nation.

Many EU leaders feel it is a price worth paying. They will want Brexit resolved, one way or another by the end of the year, either with;

A. UK parliament votes to accept WA - Best Outcome but how likely/ Is it still possible? - Maybe a UK GE could cause this.
B. UK crashes out with No Deal - Damaging but at least they're gone and the EU can move forward.
C. UK revokes A50 and remains in the EU - Tricky, do they want a belligerant UK who feels imprisoned?

The damage a No Deal would cause would be nowhere near as potentially damaging to the EU of giving in to BJ's demands or offering endless extentions.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or to offer us the protective cover of a few of the ECB bazookas, in the shape of low cost long dated loans, and allow some room for borrowing limits to be exceeded. The EU could also offer support for agriculture, and in particular beef and dairy, plus some infrastructure spending - like Metrolink, Dart expansion, Dart Underground, and the M20, plus extra support for the BMW region..

They could and they have indicated that they will support Ireland financially. My own thinking on that is we are a wealthy country by comparison to most EU countries. Countries like Portugal or Poland might question such support and wonder why they shouldn't get the money.

Professor Moriarty

LordBasil wrote: »

Many EU leaders feel it is a price worth paying. They will want Brexit resolved, one way or another by the end of the year, either with;

A. UK parliament votes to accept WA - Best Outcome but how likely/ Is it still possible? - Maybe a UK GE could cause this.
B. UK crashes out with No Deal - Damaging but at least they're gone and the EU can move forward.
C. UK revokes A50 and remains in the EU - Tricky, do they want a belligerant UK who feels imprisoned?

The damage a No Deal would cause would be nowhere near as potentially damaging to the EU of giving in to BJ's demands or offering endless extentions.

I dunno. We can huff and puff but our economy will take a hammering if Britain crashes out. We will be affected much more than any other remaining EU country and even Britain if some commentators are to be believed.

axer

Surely Johnson has to go with the plan of calling an election after the 31st October as that should make the Brexit Party effectively cease to exist thus their 16% or whatever is up for grabs and they are no longer a threat to the Torys. You'd imagine Brexit party supporters are generally hardliners so will be delighted Johnson actually pulled the trigger. Then as soon as Johnson has a good majority in the HoC again he goes straight to the EU and tells them he would like a Canada++ agreement ASAP with a border down the Irish sea since the DUP are no longer needed by the Torys. He instantly agrees to the EU citizens rights, divorce payment and backstop. This withdrawal agreement will get through parliment since they are f*cked without a FTA and as he has lots of votes extra to play with. They then get into a FTA negotiation - they agree a standard Canada deal with a few extras (One of the easiest trade agreements in history ). In the meantime they agree to keep the lights on through mutual unilateral actions e.g. flights allowed, which the EU already said they would do.

If they don't get returned a majority from that general election the country is absolutely f*cked but its a risk Johnson will be willing to take.

LordBasil

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. We can huff and puff but our economy will take a hammering if Britain crashes out. We will be affected much more than any other remaining EU country and even Britain if some commentators are to be believed.

I think Ireland's economy is far more robust and multi-layered than people give it credit for. In recent decades we have become less and less reliant on the UK. Maybe going through our previous recession will stand in good stead as the economy had to be re-structured after the property and banking collapse. After Brexit we will still be members of the EU SM/CU, a lot of British/Multi-National companies may want to relocate here, actually I think there will be a lot of opportunities for growth. We shall see.....

prawnsambo

axer wrote: »

Surely Johnson has to go with the plan of calling an election after the 31st October as that should make the Brexit Party effectively cease to exist thus their 16% or whatever is up for grabs and they are no longer a threat to the Torys. You'd imagine Brexit party supporters are generally hardliners so will be delighted Johnson actually pulled the trigger.

The problem with that approach is that there's no longer any doubt as to what form brexit will take. Fine if you just want the BP votes, but you won't elect a government on votes that traditionally haven't translated to Westminster seats. It's far simpler to just steal the BP's clothes and look as or more brexity than them. With the added advantage of leading a major party. And at the same time pick up those in the middle who are tired of the whole thing. He's selling Shroedinger's brexit (again) and people are buying it.

Professor Moriarty

LordBasil wrote: »

I think Ireland's economy is far more robust and multi-layered than people give it credit for. In recent decades we have become less and less reliant on the UK. Maybe going through our previous recession will stand in good stead as the economy had to be re-structured after the property and banking collapse. After Brexit we will still be members of the EU SM/CU, a lot of British/Multi-National companies may want to relocate here, actually I think there will be a lot of opportunities for growth. We shall see.....

I take your point and maybe you're right. The ESRI, the government and most commentators that I've read aren't as optimistic though.

Valhallapt

Anything to be said for a very short transition. Instead of Oct 31 being crash out date, they leave on that date but we have a 90 day transition to 3rd country status. That way both sides can put in place customs checks on 1 November, but don’t have to strictly enforce them until 90 days after. Gives time to let the issues become apparent and help trade not to grind to zero.

prawnsambo

Valhallapt wrote: »

Anything to be said for a very short transition. Instead of Oct 31 being crash out date, they leave on that date but we have a 90 day transition to 3rd country status. That way both sides can put in place customs checks on 1 November, but don’t have to strictly enforce them until 90 days after. Gives time to let the issues become apparent and help trade not to grind to zero.

The EU have extended some of the treaties and agreements to allow for this. Albeit to reduce the impact on EU member states. But these are things that can only be done unilaterally, the UK having left has no status within the EU and therefore can't be legislated for in this way. And of course any agreement would require the preconditions which they won't accept.

ilovesmybrick

I don't see the point in giving the UK another three months to waste. They've done nothing, absolutely nothing, since the last extension and dragging things on much longer seems to be pointless. The Brexiteers would crow about with more 'will of the people' nonsense, and Labour will keep sitting on their hands. The trigger needs to be pulled so the rest of Europe can move on.

LordBasil

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I take your point and maybe you're right. The ESRI, the government and most commentators that I've read aren't as optimistic though.

Yeah, it's hard to know although I feel a lot of government agencies/commentators, after being so wrong about our 'Soft Landing' from the Housing Bubble in 2008, are now airing more on the side of caution and negativity reigns. If things go bad they can say they were right, if things are not as dire as predicted following Brexit/No Deal, the public won't really care what they said previously.

Ireland will become more important politically if/when the UK leave as we will be the only English Speaking member of the EU and possibly the new bridge between Brussels and Washington. The visits to Ireland of both Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi over the Summer were telling of this...

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

Or to offer us the protective cover of a few of the ECB bazookas, in the shape of low cost long dated loans, and allow some room for borrowing limits to be exceeded. The EU could also offer support for agriculture, and in particular beef and dairy, plus some infrastructure spending - like Metrolink, Dart expansion, Dart Underground, and the M20, plus extra support for the BMW region..

They could and they have indicated that they will support Ireland financially. My own thinking on that is we are a wealthy country by comparison to most EU countries. Countries like Portugal or Poland might question such support and wonder why they shouldn't get the money.

We did take a severe hit for the team with the bank bail out, so they owe us one (at least). We may be wealthy now but no so much if every thing goes pear shaped.

We need infrastructure and housing - like now.

lawred2

Valhallapt wrote: »

Anything to be said for a very short transition. Instead of Oct 31 being crash out date, they leave on that date but we have a 90 day transition to 3rd country status. That way both sides can put in place customs checks on 1 November, but don’t have to strictly enforce them until 90 days after. Gives time to let the issues become apparent and help trade not to grind to zero.

2 and a half years not enough of a transition?

At some point the boil has to be lanced.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

We did take a severe hit for the team with the bank bail out, so they owe us one (at least). We may be wealthy now but no so much if every thing goes pear shaped.

We need infrastructure and housing - like now.

Well other countries would claim that they also need infrastructure and housing. We are wealthy. I wonder what your average Joe Soap in Romania or Hungary would say if they saw our standard of living compared to theirs.

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well other countries would claim that they also need infrastructure and housing. We are wealthy. I wonder what your average Joe Soap in Romania or Hungary would say if they saw our standard of living compared to theirs.

Quite a few are over here and having a good look. They contribute to our economy, and good luck to them.

We carry a high sovereign debt thanks to the bailout of French and German banks.

johnnyskeleton

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They could and they have indicated that they will support Ireland financially. My own thinking on that is we are a wealthy country by comparison to most EU countries. Countries like Portugal or Poland might question such support and wonder why they shouldn't get the money.

We could equally ask why so much goes into Poland, whose economy has been growing steadily over the last 10 years. But its about regional support, and the whole purpose of that is to cover temporary problems that arise in specific regions. Think of it more as a functional FEMA rather than a direct subsidy.

But even leaving that aside, it will be the price to be paid for political unity. Perhaps it could be sold as coming out of the £39bn that the UK will eventually pay one way or another. Hopefully, £39bn will still have some value in a few years' time

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

We could equally ask why so much goes into Poland, whose economy has been growing steadily over the last 10 years. But its about regional support, and the whole purpose of that is to cover temporary problems that arise in specific regions. Think of it more as a functional FEMA rather than a direct subsidy.

But even leaving that aside, it will be the price to be paid for political unity. Perhaps it could be sold as coming out of the £39bn that the UK will eventually pay one way or another. Hopefully, £39bn will still have some value in a few years' time

They will be paying in Euros, not GBP. The EU do not accept GBP, for obvious reasons.