Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Johnson opting for the "magic money tree" economic policy:

twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1137821375606022144

Grove wants to get rid* of VAT


*ie redefine it , as in "replace VAT with a lower, simpler, sales tax," which won't be any of those things

dogbert27

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Johnson opting for the "magic money tree" economic policy:

http://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1137821375606022144

So his plan is to spend the armageddon money before armageddon begins?

What could possibly go wrong with the UK economy after a No Deal exit? :rolleyes:

The longer the UK mess around internally the more time the EU have to be ready for a No Deal Brexit.

Peregrinus

trellheim wrote: »

The only possible causes of action I can see is

1) Exit no-deal and then try and renegotiate . This is currently what will happen given no other action.
2) Revoke A50
3) Extend A50 again ( most likely option but depends on what gets elected to PM )...

Option 3 crucially depends on the EU being willing to give a further exension, which can't be taken for granted.

Both from certain quarters in Brussels, and from a couple of member states, there have been voices all saying some variation on the same thing: "We would consider a further extension to facilitate a general election, a second referndum or a similar game-changing event, or to facilitate the passage of legislation needed to implement the WA, if the UK has accepted it. But we would not consider an extension for any attempt to renegotiate the WA."

There's a growing view that at the June summit, when the EU is to review the progress of the current extension, the EU should formally make a decision to this effect, so that when the new Tory leader is identified, his or her opportunity to continue playing games is limited. Plus, the sooner and more definitely the EU says this, the sooner anti-no-deal groups in parliament are likely to move to try to prevent no deal. There's a real possibility that, despite there being a majority in the Commons against no deal, they will fail to move early enough to be effective in preventing one. They will feel they have to give the new PM a chance to try whatever cakeist scheme he promised in order to get chosen and, if he faffs about for long enough with that, it will be too late to prevent a crash-out.

robinph

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

They are doomed with Boris, but hey 140k Tory membership can decide the fate of the UK. Mad.

The DUP could always withdraw support.

What are the chances of Boris saying he'll dump NI in order to get rid of the backstop problem before the final vote? Then the DUP walk away and Boris gets the top job in the party, but instantly loses the PM role.

dogbert27

robinph wrote: »

The DUP could always withdraw support.

What are the chances of Boris saying he'll dump NI in order to get rid of the backstop problem before the final vote? Then the DUP walk away and Boris gets the top job in the party, but instantly loses the PM role.

I doubt Boris or any of the other Tories running for leader are thinking that far ahead.

It's the usual "all about the party" first approach and belief that they can solve everything else afterwards without a plan.

Peregrinus

dogbert27 wrote: »

I doubt Boris or any of the other Tories running for leader are thinking that far ahead.

It's the usual "all about the party" first approach and belief that they can solve everything else afterwards without a plan.

It's possible that some of the leadership candidates have actually thought about what they would to to break the logjam if elected leader, and that they have a strategy in mind, but that they are keeping schtumm about it because it would not be advantageous to air it in the leadership race. There's no way of knowing what surprising course any of them might secretly plan to take.

Beechwoodspark

Headshot wrote: »

He's the best of the bad bunch but if he and Boris are the 2 final candidates at t the end it's a certain win for Boris as the Conservative members love Boris (god knows why)

Stewart is very much establishment.

His father was senior in mi6

He himself tutored William and Harry. He’s well in there as they say.

Safe pair of hands.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's a growing view that at the June summit, when the EU is to review the progress of the current extension, the EU should formally make a decision to this effect

I would be very much against the EU waiting for a UK request for an extension in October and then saying No. Bad for both sides, and unnecessarily hard on the ordinary UK citizens, who are also EU citizens for now.

But I really like the idea of setting out in black and white now, in June, the Ts&Cs under which an extension will or will not be granted if requested in October.

Yes for a General Election, new Referendum or enactment of necessary laws after signing the WA.

No for trying to reopen the WA, Tory infighting, needing more time to prep for No Deal or any other reason.

LeinsterDub

Headshot wrote: »

He's the best of the bad bunch but if he and Boris are the 2 final candidates at t the end it's a certain win for Boris as the Conservative members love Boris (god knows why)

He's gotten between 25-35 % in polls of the membership but that's in a multi horse race. When it come down to it the members could coalesce around the 'lesser of two evils' option

20silkcut

dogbert27 wrote: »

I doubt Boris or any of the other Tories running for leader are thinking that far ahead.

It's the usual "all about the party" first approach and belief that they can solve everything else afterwards without a plan.

How would such a such scenario play out?
The backstop would kick in for NI but the Mainland UK would be out?
Obviously a general election would ensue.
But the divorce bill, citizens rights and the NI border boxes are ticked so on to the future trade deal negotiations??
Chaotic brexit avoided??

Laois_Man

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I would be very much against the EU waiting for a UK request for an extension in October and then saying No. Bad for both sides, and unnecessarily hard on the ordinary UK citizens, who are also EU citizens for now.

But I really like the idea of setting out in black and white now, in June, the Ts&Cs under which an extension will or will not be granted if requested in October.

Yes for a General Election, new Referendum or enactment of necessary laws after signing the WA.

No for trying to reopen the WA, Tory infighting, needing more time to prep for No Deal or any other reason.

Those were the effective conditions that were laid out for a second extension to be granted beyond April 12th and the EU still gave them one

It was the wrong decision!

dogbert27

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's possible that some of the leadership candidates have actually thought about what they would to to break the logjam if elected leader, and that they have a strategy in mind, but that they are keeping schtumm about it because it would not be advantageous to air it in the leadership race. There's no way of knowing what surprising course any of them might secretly plan to take.

Possible but not probable.

For the last 2 years they have been clear on what they don't want but not clear on what they do want because nobody seems to know what exactly in real world terms Brexit is supposed to be delivering to the U.K.

It looks to me that a lot of these people have seen Love Actually and are basing themselves on the Hugh Grant speech of "Isn't Britain really Great!"

Richard Curtis has a lot to answer for. :pac:

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I would be very much against the EU waiting for a UK request for an extension in October and then saying No. Bad for both sides, and unnecessarily hard on the ordinary UK citizens, who are also EU citizens for now.

But I really like the idea of setting out in black and white now, in June, the Ts&Cs under which an extension will or will not be granted if requested in October.

Yes for a General Election, new Referendum or enactment of necessary laws after signing the WA.

No for trying to reopen the WA, Tory infighting, needing more time to prep for No Deal or any other reason.

Laois_Man wrote: »

Those were the effective conditions that were laid out for a second extension to be granted beyond April 12th and the EU still gave them one

And there's the thing.

No matter what the European Council says in June that it will or won't do in October, come October it can do what it likes. The statement "we'll only grant an extension in these specific circumstances" carries no weight unless the people to whom it is addressed - the Tory leadership - believe that that is, in fact, the stance you will take in October. Since the Tory leadership have a remarkable capacity to believe whatever it is convenient to believe, and it's not convenient to believe this, not much may be acheived.

dogbert27

20silkcut wrote: »

How would such a such scenario play out?
The backstop would kick in for NI but the Mainland UK would be out?
Obviously a general election would ensue.
But the divorce bill, citizens rights and the NI border boxes are ticked so on to the future trade deal negotiations??
Chaotic brexit avoided??

I have absolutely no idea. Which maybe qualifies me to run for the Tory leadership!

Zubeneschamali

Laois_Man wrote: »

Those were the effective conditions that were laid out for a second extension to be granted beyond April 12th

No conditions were laid out - it was just talk.

CrabRevolution

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's possible that some of the leadership candidates have actually thought about what they would to to break the logjam if elected leader, and that they have a strategy in mind, but that they are keeping schtumm about it because it would not be advantageous to air it in the leadership race. There's no way of knowing what surprising course any of them might secretly plan to take.

I was thinking this too, that they must be trying to think of some plan to end the problem. Be it having a NI only backstop, removing a red line etc. but they can't really say it in public as the only thing that'll earn anyone the PM spot is chest thumping about making the EU work on the UKs terms. This results in the candidates clamouring to out-staunch each other to win the contest.

Unfortunately the policies that provide a solution to the brexit deal issue will ensure that a candidate won't be elected PM, and the policies that result in a candidate being elected PM will ensure that there's no solution to the brexit deal.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Since the Tory leadership have a remarkable capacity to believe whatever it is convenient to believe, and it's not convenient to believe this, not much may be acheived.

Of course that is true, but I like the idea because it keeps the EUs position clear and if it comes to it, and the UK still have no plan and no clue and are begging for a pointless extension come October, it gives the Council cover if they do in fact decide to say No.


And while the Tories may ignore it for another Unicorn hunt, it may prod the Remain/Soft Brexit MPs to start doing something now rather than waiting for Boris to blunder about for months before asking for an extension.

Zubeneschamali

CrabRevolution wrote: »

they can't really say it in public as the only thing that'll earn anyone the PM spot is chest thumping about making the EU work on the UKs terms.

In fact, I think it is worse than that, and the chest-thumpers believe their own nonsense - that the EU will fold at the last minute, or if not, that the UK will be OK with a bit of the old blitz spirit.

LuckyLloyd

By the time we get to a resumption of panic stations in September the EU will have a new five year parliament in session with new official slates elected. That gives them a five year period of stability that the UK can’t match. The time to carry out some of the crazier ideas floating around the Conservative leader contest was ahead of the elections and their associated uncertainty and challenges.

Peregrinus

CrabRevolution wrote: »

I was thinking this too, that they must be trying to think of some plan to end the problem. Be it having a NI only backstop, removing a red line etc. but they can't really say it in public as the only thing that'll earn anyone the PM spot is chest thumping about making the EU work on the UKs terms. This results in the candidates clamouring to out-staunch each other to win the contest.

Unfortunately the policies that provide a solution to the brexit deal issue will ensure that a candidate won't be elected PM, and the policies that result in a candidate being elected PM will ensure that there's no solution to the brexit deal.

Most of the candidates are saying that they will attempt a renegotiation with the EU. I suspect that, for those of them who have a strategy that goes beyond winning the leadership, that strategy involves going to the EU and looking for some tweaks to the pol dec dressed up so they can colourably be claimed as a significant acheivement in a situation in which, due to factors for which I, as the just-elected leader, cannot possibly be held responsible, the UK's options are in fact very limited. The EU is generally quite happy to let third states dress up a climbdown as a significant victory.

Then you take it to the parliamentary party who know that it's a climbdown but they also know that if they point that out they are inevitable heading for some combination of no-deal Brexit, general election, or second referendum, all of which are hugely damaging to the Tory party. So you hope to God that the party will find it convenient to go along with the fiction that this is indeed a signficant victory, in the circumstances. You rely on your clout as newly-elected leader of the party to bully those who will not be persuaded, and on the patronage available to you as Prime Minister to bribe those who will not be bullied. Particularly if you're Boris Johnson and inexplicably popular with the public, you hope the party trusts in your popularity in the country to carry them through an unpopular deal which the likes of May could not get away with.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Then you take it to the parliamentary party who know that it's a climbdown but they also know that if they point that out they are inevitable heading for some combination of no-deal Brexit, general election, or second referendum, all of which are hugely damaging to the Tory party.

May tried this exact tactic over and over - Tory MPs weren't buying it, right up to the No Deal or Extension deadline. The WA got less popular, with no sign that people were being convinced or bullied into supporting it.

I think they aren't buying it because they really do believe there is a good Brexit out there somewhere.

So Boris will be left with No Deal or Extension, just as May was, and Parliament will have to stop him going for No Deal.

Peregrinus

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May tried this exact tactic over and over - Tory MPs weren't buying it, right up to the No Deal or Extension deadline. The WA got less popular, with no sign that people were being convinced or bullied into supporting it . . .

You're very possibly right, but that may not be how Boris sees it. May couldn't sell the WA because May couldn't sell anything; she's not one of nature's saleswomen. Whereas Boris, with his personal popularity, his roguish charm and his complete lack of any scruples whatsoever may feel that, when aided by the desire of the party of put an end to this slow-motion train wreck in some not completely suicidal way, he will enjoy better success.

Kermit.de.frog

Some appalling economic data out of UK this morning. All sectors of the economy went in to decline or static last month.

The economy shrunk 0.4%.

Are we finally seeing the froth come off in the face of Brexit?

Enzokk

Here is a few tweets that seems to sum up the ideas on the Irish border so far.

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1137988136645091328

https://twitter.com/JP_Biz/status/1137989487303241729

So in summary, Hunt wants to talk to Ireland directly to sort it out instead of the EU.

Andrea Leadsom wants a summit in NI in September that will sort out the border.

Boris Johnson wants to take the backstop out of the WA.

So we are back to the land of unicorns and I am sure cherry picking will follow in short order. We have not moved one little bit and in fact seem to have gone backwards on the backstop. And they were warned to use their time wisely.

Enzokk

Peregrinus wrote: »

Most of the candidates are saying that they will attempt a renegotiation with the EU. I suspect that, for those of them who have a strategy that goes beyond winning the leadership, that strategy involves going to the EU and looking for some tweaks to the pol dec dressed up so they can colourably be claimed as a significant acheivement in a situation in which, due to factors for which I, as the just-elected leader, cannot possibly be held responsible, the UK's options are in fact very limited. The EU is generally quite happy to let third states dress up a climbdown as a significant victory.

Then you take it to the parliamentary party who know that it's a climbdown but they also know that if they point that out they are inevitable heading for some combination of no-deal Brexit, general election, or second referendum, all of which are hugely damaging to the Tory party. So you hope to God that the party will find it convenient to go along with the fiction that this is indeed a signficant victory, in the circumstances. You rely on your clout as newly-elected leader of the party to bully those who will not be persuaded, and on the patronage available to you as Prime Minister to bribe those who will not be bullied. Particularly if you're Boris Johnson and inexplicably popular with the public, you hope the party trusts in your popularity in the country to carry them through an unpopular deal which the likes of May could not get away with.

It is going to take some almighty climbdown from the ERG (Mark Francois and the like) and the DUP to accept the WA though. I don't see how they opposed it so vehemently for so long only to flip at a change of leader. But then again it is politicians we are talking about and nothing will surprise me.

trellheim

Particularly if you're Boris Johnson and inexplicably popular with the public, you hope the party trusts in your popularity in the country to carry them through an unpopular deal which the likes of May could not get away with.

ERG are backing Boris therefore it will be a hard brexit if he gets in or the party splits even further . See Steve Bakers twitter

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW


Once this starts boiling down at the end of the week I predict there will be huge calls for party unity (i.e. clear the field )

Professor Moriarty

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some appalling economic data out of UK this morning. All sectors of the economy went in to decline or static last month.

The economy shrunk 0.4%.

Are we finally seeing the froth come off in the face of Brexit?

Their economy was doing relatively well due to stockpiling as companies prepared for a possible No Deal. Now that the stockpiling is done, the reality of companies moving out of the UK and decreasing inward investment will kick in.

Laois_Man

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No conditions were laid out - it was just talk.

Conditions were laid out. The conditions being that the UL had to come back by April 12th with a plan of a way forward.

From April 3rd via CNN...

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said Wednesday that if the UK cannot agree on a Brexit position by April 12, no short term extension will be possible.

“If the UK is in a position of approving the Withdrawal Deal with a viable majority by the 12th April then the UK in that case the European Union would also accept an extension until the 22nd May,” Juncker said.

“If the House of Commons does not adopt a stance before that date, no short-term extension will be possible,” he added – to resounding applause.

2 months later, they still don't have that plan!

Zubeneschamali

Laois_Man wrote: »

Conditions were laid out. The conditions being that the UL had to come back by April 12th with a plan of a way forward.

That was a condition for the short extension which the UK wanted, into May. The UK didn't meet that condition, and didn't get that extension.

The EU handed them an extension to October instead which they had not asked for at all.

I would expect similar in October - if the UK ask for an extension and the EU says Yes, it will be a long one for a bit of certainty - say a year - no matter what the UK asks for.

johnnyskeleton

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

But I really like the idea of setting out in black and white now, in June, the Ts&Cs under which an extension will or will not be granted if requested in October.

Yes for a General Election, new Referendum or enactment of necessary laws after signing the WA.

No for trying to reopen the WA, Tory infighting, needing more time to prep for No Deal or any other reason.

That would be sensible and practical, but the problem is how it would be spun. If a UK PM asked for it they would be called a coward, traitor etc, and if the EU were to offer it it would be proof of them trying to trap the UK into further membership.