Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

swampgas

quokula wrote: »

In fairness, being pragmatic, realistic and trying to find a compromise, as Corbyn has consistently been on Brexit, gets you crucified by both sides of the divide across the British media.

Corbyn wants out of the EU. His strategy, as far as I can see, is to let the Tories implement Brexit, obstruct anyone who is trying to revoke Article 50, and attempt to win an election once the UK has actually left. Hard Brexit doesn't worry him at all, no Brexit is what worries him.

And I think everyone in the political sphere in the UK knows this. Anyone hoping to avoid a hard Brexit will not want Corbyn put in charge of preventing it - his heart isn't in it.

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

Huh, when did that happen?

Corbyn has just been trying to say two different things at the same time and hoping that nobody notices. Compromising is not agreeing with everyone, that is just lying to everyone.

Compromising is being prepared to move your position slightly towards the other side and them then doing the same towards you. That is something nobody has been doing, it just happens that Corbyn is being uncompromising and sitting in the middle and disagreeing with both extremes equally.

If they crash out, it will be because of ineffective opposition. And the blame for that rests squarely on Corbyn's shoulders. As Leader of the Opposition he's been as useful as a lighthouse in a bog.

PropJoe10

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If they crash out, it will be because of ineffective opposition. And the blame for that rests squarely on Corbyn's shoulders. As Leader of the Opposition he's been as useful as a lighthouse in a bog.

Absolutely. Flip flops galore, his own front bench looks utterly bewildered most of the time. Keir Starmer is about the only one there that seems to have some sort of clear idea of what he wants.

Professor Moriarty

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Absolutely. Flip flops galore, his own front bench looks utterly bewildered most of the time. Keir Starmer is about the only one there that seems to have some sort of clear idea of what he wants.

If Starmer were leader, Labour would clean up in any election against Johnson and his gang.

Spanish Eyes

Corbyn is rightly being vilified for his lack of leadership on this historic and potentially totally destructive issue. I can't for the life of me figure out why he is still there. I suppose he is a Communist and many in Labour/Momentum agree with his policies, so he will not be challenged.

Probably why he hates the EU together with many of the Opposition Labour MPs. They obviously see the EU is a capitalist construct. So are totally in favour of Brexit.

Or something.

Strazdas

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Absolutely. Flip flops galore, his own front bench looks utterly bewildered most of the time. Keir Starmer is about the only one there that seems to have some sort of clear idea of what he wants.

He's been an utter disaster. Labour voters are as pro-Remain as the SNP and yet he is going on about "respecting the result of the referendum" and "Leave voting areas".

I've news for you, Jeremy : Conservative and Brexit Party voters are none of your concern.

prawnsambo

swampgas wrote: »

Corbyn wants out of the EU. His strategy, as far as I can see, is to let the Tories implement Brexit, obstruct anyone who is trying to revoke Article 50, and attempt to win an election once the UK has actually left. Hard Brexit doesn't worry him at all, no Brexit is what worries him.

And I think everyone in the political sphere in the UK knows this. Anyone hoping to avoid a hard Brexit will not want Corbyn put in charge of preventing it - his heart isn't in it.

A lot of voters know it too. He's been sitting on the fence in order not to be seen as either a remainer or a leaver for fear of losing labour voters who voted either wiay; not least in his own constituency. But you can only do that for so long before both sides give up and look for leadership elsewhere. And the resurgence of the LibDems is the culmination of that (lack of) policy. Just not capable of leading because that requires taking a stand and working to bring people with you rather than allowing them to lead you.

Strazdas

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Corbyn is rightly being vilified for his lack of leadership on this historic and potentially totally destructive issue. I can't for the life of me figure out why he is still there. I suppose he is a Communist and many in Labour/Momentum agree with his policies, so he will not be challenged.

Probably why he hates the EU together with many of the Opposition Labour MPs. They obviously see the EU is a capitalist construct. So are totally in favour of Brexit.

Or something.

He was the worst possible opposition leader to be in place when the referendum happened. His lack of opposition to Brexit has greatly lended legitimacy to it, when it is clearly a failure and a terrible idea.

MrMusician18

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I don't really see an alternative, other than Labour finally getting rid of Corbyn and getting someone in with a clear vision of what Labour should actually be standing for. Who they'd select as a new leader is anyone's guess but until that happens, they're pretty much a lame duck in my view.

In the absence of a proper Labour alternative government option, the only way I can see is for the people against No Deal in Parliament to find someone they can possibly unite behind. I can't really think of anyone that's more respected in the Commons than Clarke but as you said, it would be a hard sell especially for a Labour front bench.

Headshot wrote: »

I feel it was a bit of an own goal for Lib Dems today. Jo Swinson was far to harsh today and should of been more pragmatic.

I know where Jo is coming from but surely what's the harm in meeting Corbyn. It's only going to be a very temporary national unity party

Own goals are the order of the day for the Lib Dems

• selling out their student base for power/AV referendum
• Failing to create a coalition for Yes in said AV referendum and getting outmanoeuvred by the Conservatives, and losing
• Electing a fundamentalist Christian to lead a Liberal Party
• And now, refusing to entertain Corbyns idea out of hand

They're like a more naive and badly run version of the Irish Green Party

quokula

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Corbyn is rightly being vilified for his lack of leadership on this historic and potentially totally destructive issue. I can't for the life of me figure out why he is still there. I suppose he is a Communist and many in Labour/Momentum agree with his policies, so he will not be challenged.

Probably why he hates the EU together with many of the Opposition Labour MPs. They obviously see the EU is a capitalist construct. So are totally in favour of Brexit.

Or something.

This is a completely false narrative though - he doesn't "hate" the EU. One half of the UK media portray him as an arch-Brexiteer while the anti-EU media paint him as an ultra-remainer.

The reality is that he campaigned to remain, but accepted the result as he is ultimately a democrat. He's consistently been strongly opposed to no deal, has consistently pushed for staying in the customs union (i.e. honour the referendum result while minimising the damage), and has shown increasing support for a second referendum as the chances of a soft Brexit have reduced. And that's all been in line with the democratically voted Labour party policy at conference too.

If you look at his voting record and the record of the Labour whip on key Brexit votes you'll see consistent rejection of a hard Brexit and multiple instances of pursuing a second referendum. Parliamentary arithmetic has led to much success on the former but less on the latter as too few Tories have rebelled. A second referendum would not necessarily produce a different result either - although it's much more likely now that they're at the precipice of no deal.

Everything Labour has done in the last couple of years has been in the name of minimising the harm to the country, even if it's cost them some popularity for not taking unrealistic purist positions.

prawnsambo

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Own goals are the order of the day for the Lib Dems

• selling out their student base for power/AV referendum
• Failing to create a coalition for Yes in said AV referendum and getting outmanoeuvred by the Conservatives, and losing
• Electing a fundamentalist Christian to lead a Liberal Party
• And now, refusing to entertain Corbyns idea out of hand

They're like a more naive and badly run version of the Irish Green Party

And yet they're gaining votes at the expense of Labour. I suppose that comes from actually coming down on one side of the fence.

prawnsambo

A few things to unpick here. Firstly Farage recognising that Johnson is stealing his clothes and rather than try and fight for them, proposing that he steal Labour's. And secondly that Labour being vaguely leave is looking like a bad bet.

ballsymchugh

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Own goals are the order of the day for the Lib Dems

• selling out their student base for power/AV referendum
• Failing to create a coalition for Yes in said AV referendum and getting outmanoeuvred by the Conservatives, and losing
• Electing a fundamentalist Christian to lead a Liberal Party
• And now, refusing to entertain Corbyns idea out of hand

They're like a more naive and badly run version of the Irish Green Party

1. that's coalitions for you. manifesto for single part government is not the same as a manifesto for coalition
2. The AV referendum was as much as they were going to get, since they want PR. I was living in the UK at the time, and the only thing i remember about that referendum is that there was so little publicity about it.
3. surely a liberal party should be able to elect anyone as leader, especially since his voting record didn't reflect his fundamentalist beliefs.
4. Corbyn has taken too long to reflect his own party's wishes, why should they trust him at all?

PropJoe10

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If Starmer were leader, Labour would clean up in any election against Johnson and his gang.

I've no idea why Labour members are continuing to plod along with Corbyn when there's actually an opportunity to get out there with a new leader, a fresh clear approach to Brexit and to try to appeal to those that are clearly worried by a No Deal, which I think would include pretty much everyone that voted to Remain plus a large quantity of leavers. It's a shambles.

Valhallapt

prawnsambo wrote: »

A few things to unpick here. Firstly Farage recognising that Johnson is stealing his clothes and rather than try and fight for them, proposing that he steal Labour's. And secondly that Labour being vaguely leave is looking like a bad bet.

I actually feel weirdly ok about this. Until now I didn’t see how Brexit could happen, this is a logical voting pact, BP only run in Labour held leave seats, They step aside anywhere Tories are in with a shot. They put the border in the Irish Sea and move onto the FTA talks.

Professor Moriarty

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I've no idea why Labour members are continuing to plod along with Corbyn when there's actually an opportunity to get out there with a new leader, a fresh clear approach to Brexit and to try to appeal to those that are clearly worried by a No Deal, which I think would include pretty much everyone that voted to Remain plus a large quantity of leavers. It's a shambles.

Interestingly, while Starmer is bookies' favourite to replace Corbyn, a very close second is Long-Bailey. Followed by Thornberry. Any of those three would be better than Corbyn. As would Mickey Mouse. Sadly, the bookies' odds also say that he won't be stepping down in 2019.

prawnsambo

Valhallapt wrote: »

I actually feel weirdly ok about this. Until now I didn’t see how Brexit could happen, this is a logical voting pact, BP only run in Labour held leave seats, They step aside anywhere Tories are in with a shot. They put the border in the Irish Sea and move onto the FTA talks.

Yeah. It's a pretty persuasive strategy. Of course it depends on Labour voters rolling over to the BP; not necessarily a good fit (apart from brexit). From Johnson's point of view, it's a win-win. He doesn't have to fight the BP and takes a chunk out of Labour at the same time.

Quin_Dub

prawnsambo wrote: »

A few things to unpick here. Firstly Farage recognising that Johnson is stealing his clothes and rather than try and fight for them, proposing that he steal Labour's. And secondly that Labour being vaguely leave is looking like a bad bet.

Valhallapt wrote: »

I actually feel weirdly ok about this. Until now I didn’t see how Brexit could happen, this is a logical voting pact, BP only run in Labour held leave seats, They step aside anywhere Tories are in with a shot. They put the border in the Irish Sea and move onto the FTA talks.

Does Boris really want Farage as Deputy PM?

What's the upside for Boris in making that deal? He doesn't really care about Brexit one way or the other , he just wants to lead.

I can't see him compromising on him being PM and the saviour of the Tory party , especially not by giving Farage a seat at cabinet.

Lemming

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Does Boris really want Farage as Deputy PM?

Nige would need to get elected to parliament first; something he has consistently failed to do over the years.

Valhallapt

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Does Boris really want Farage as Deputy PM?

What's the upside for Boris in making that deal? He doesn't really care about Brexit one way or the other , he just wants to lead.

I can't see him compromising on him being PM and the saviour of the Tory party , especially not by giving Farage a seat at cabinet.

I’ve no time for Farage, but I think he is the only leader not to put his party before all else. I doubt he wants to be deputy PM, he’d do a supply and confidence deal, only condition is they go for a Canada style FTA, that lets them also do a FTA with the USA

MrMusician18

ballsymchugh wrote: »

1. that's coalitions for you. manifesto for single part government is not the same as a manifesto for coalition
2. The AV referendum was as much as they were going to get, since they want PR. I was living in the UK at the time, and the only thing i remember about that referendum is that there was so little publicity about it.
3. surely a liberal party should be able to elect anyone as leader, especially since his voting record didn't reflect his fundamentalist beliefs.
4. Corbyn has taken too long to reflect his own party's wishes, why should they trust him at all?

The student fees was a flagship policy of the Lib Dems, of all the compromises to make, that was not the one.

The AV referendum had little publicity intentionally, because the Cons used their leverage with the media to suppress it. The naivety of the Lib Dems and allure of power blinded them to this, making a referendum on AV was unwinnable.

A liberal party elects a leader that reflects it's values. Every interview with Farron turned into an interrogation on what he thought of Gays and not policy. It was utterly moronic to choose him, and then they replaced him with a geriatric

And why should they trust Corbyn... Because there is no other road that leads to stopping Brexit. That's either with his proposal or an amended version.

If Corbyn can shepherd enough Tories to hold their nose, what will the Lib Dems do?

prawnsambo

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Does Boris really want Farage as Deputy PM?

What's the upside for Boris in making that deal? He doesn't really care about Brexit one way or the other , he just wants to lead.

I can't see him compromising on him being PM and the saviour of the Tory party , especially not by giving Farage a seat at cabinet.

I don't see him thinking in this way except as a last resort. If he can limit the BP to Labour leave constituencies, then Labour are completely hamstrung. If he can't win an outright majority, then plan B is a coalition. But I'd reckon he doesn't see this as an issue, he thinks he'll get a majority.

Quin_Dub

Valhallapt wrote: »

I’ve no time for Farage, but I think he is the only leader not to put his party before all else. I doubt he wants to be deputy PM, he’d do a supply and confidence deal, only condition is they go for a Canada style FTA, that lets them also do a FTA with the USA

It's not really a valid comparison though..

Farage doesn't have a Party , he has "The Nigel Farage show" with various session musicians that fill in at gigs.

He doesn't have a "party aparatus" to answer to the way any other normal functioning political party does.

Lemming

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's not really a valid comparison though..

Farage doesn't have a Party , he has "The Nigel Farage show" with various session musicians that fill in at gigs.

He doesn't have a "party aparatus" to answer to the way any other normal functioning political party does.

To add to that, he didn't do anything so noble as putting country before party last time out; he ran away in "retirement" so as to engage the public's selective memory amnesia by letting others try to control the ship through the sh1t to follow. Oh, he puts something before "Party" and that's himself, himself, and himself some more.

20silkcut

Would fintan o tooles idea be a runner if there was an election pre brexit ??

This election is really just a single issue election

Valhallapt

Lemming wrote: »

To add to that, he didn't do anything so noble as putting country before party last time out; he ran away in "retirement" so as to engage the public's selective memory amnesia by letting others try to control the ship through the sh1t to follow. Oh, he puts something before "Party" and that's himself, himself, and himself some more.

Not suggesting he’d put his country first, but I’ve always thought of the Brexit Party to be more like the Tea Party across the pond, the agenda is not to take control, but to push those in control in a certain direction, to the right.

He can genuinely threaten to split the Tory vote and put Labour in power, seen that in the recent by election( lib dems took that one, but if BP didn’t run Tories would have had it). He doesn’t want to be party leader or Deputy PM, he wants his version of Brexit, that is all.

Strazdas

20silkcut wrote: »

Would fintan o tooles idea be a runner if there was an election pre brexit ??

This election is really just a single issue election

It sounds very complicated and theoretical.

ballsymchugh

20silkcut wrote: »

Would fintan o tooles idea be a runner if there was an election pre brexit ??

This election is really just a single issue election

there would need to be a pact in some NI constituencies alright. I doubt that Sinn Fein would agree so easily though.
you could easily see Emma Little Pengelly getting in again because the republican/nationalists take votes off each other.

Lemming

Valhallapt wrote: »

Not suggesting he’d put his country first, but I’ve always thought of the Brexit Party to be more like the Tea Party across the pond, the agenda is not to take control, but to push those in control in a certain direction, to the right.

He can genuinely threaten to split the Tory vote and put Labour in power, seen that in the recent by election( lib dems took that one, but if BP didn’t run Tories would have had it). He doesn’t want to be party leader or Deputy PM, he wants his version of Brexit, that is all.

It's not an unreasonable comparison, but the tea party - iirc - was more of a movement from within the ranks of the GOP, so a bit like the ERG within the Tory party perhaps. By contrast, both UKIP and TBP (or in reality the NFP; funny how closely that abbreviation resembles another parties initiials ...) are both distinct political entities in their own right, so somewhere in there Farage has, and is still, harbouring political ambitions (or perhaps simply trying to cynically milk the system for monetary gain).

fly_agaric

quokula wrote: »

The reality is that he (Corbyn) campaigned to remain.

I'm not in the UK/don't have very close connections and it is a while ago now but my memory (?) was Corbyn was very weak campaigning in the referendum and left it to the more "neoliberal" Labour people. At least that was who I was seeing in the news speaking up for voting "remain" back then.

In General election he seemed very well able to campaign, suggesting maybe his heart wasn't in it when it comes to EU membership.
I'm not implying by saying that that he would want or somehow support a "No deal" Brexit, or whatever Boris Johnson is cooking up or anything even close to that.