Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus

Panrich wrote: »

A closed border that splits communities in two policed by EU/Irish personnel is not a very appealing prospect. The fact that nothing has been released is enough to convince me that it’s not going to be pretty no matter how watered down it will be.

It'll be policed by Irish personnel. Also, it won't be rolled out immediately. The expectation (or hope) is that the horrors of no-deal will bring the UK back to reality fairly quickly, before it becomes necessary to introduce serious, effective controls on the Irish border. There'll be considerably sympathy in Brussels to the Irish wish for a bit of leeway on this.

But if there's a no-deal Brexit and, against expectations, it persists, yeah, the Irish border will have to be policed for customs and regulatory purposes. There is no way around this.

BluePlanet

Peregrinus wrote: »

It'll be policed by Irish personnel. Also, it won't be rolled out immediately. The expectation (or hope) is that the horrors of no-deal will bring the UK back to reality fairly quickly, before it becomes necessary to introduce serious, effective controls on the Irish border. There'll be considerably sympathy in Brussels to the Irish wish for a bit of leeway on this.

But if there's a no-deal Brexit and, against expectations, it persists, yeah, the Irish border will have to be policed for customs and regulatory purposes. There is no way around this.

I agree. But not planning or not informing the public will result in more pain.
If there is a plan and certain roads are closed, which they will be, then people need to know in advance so they can adjust their lives and business accordingly.

It also takes time to build infastructure and this time needs to be quantified and planned for.

Zubeneschamali

BluePlanet wrote: »

It also takes time to build infastructure and this time needs to be quantified and planned for.

The situation at our border will be small beer beside the chaos at Dover and the Channel ports, and that chaos will bring the UK back to the table for a trade deal before Spring, and item 3 on the EUs list of upfront conditions for starting talks will be the backstop, so the border will be gone before we need any infrastructure.

BluePlanet

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The situation at our border will be small beer beside the chaos at Dover and the Channel ports, and that chaos will bring the UK back to the table for a trade deal before Spring, and item 3 on the EUs list of upfront conditions for starting talks will be the backstop, so the border will be gone before we need any infrastructure.

So i've read.
But trade deals with the EU take a long time.
So waiting for the UK to rollover in some way is probably not the best plan here.

In that chaos goods leaving ireland may end up being treated differently due to the lack of customs enforcement on our nothern border.

In fact i am surprised media are not taking Leo to task over lack of planning here.

BonnieSituation

BluePlanet wrote: »

So i've read.
But trade deals with the EU take a long time.
So waiting for the UK to rollover in some way is probably not the best plan here.

In that chaos goods leaving ireland may end up being treated differently due to the lack of customs enforcement on our nothern border.

In fact i am surprised media are not taking Leo to task over lack of planning here.

I'm surprised that you are so naive to think that we have no plans.

Have you seen the amount of work we have put in to keep the border front and centre? And you think there's no plan?

Joe_ Public

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I'm surprised that you are so naive to think that we have no plans.

Have you seen the amount of work we have put in to keep the border front and centre? And you think there's no plan?

There was definitely little if any of a plan before the end of march anyway. As to what's changed in the meantime, i've no idea. Maybe there has been some update?

BluePlanet

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I'm surprised that you are so naive to think that we have no plans.

Have you seen the amount of work we have put in to keep the border front and centre? And you think there's no plan?

The government has on several occasions said they are not planning to install border infrastructure, what else could that mean?

Stop moaning ffs

This baffles me too. Leo and Simon have both said Irish government started planning for all contingencies the moment the referendum was called.

Just because they haven’t showed their hand-really wise decision. You don’t show your opposite number what your planning on these scenarios- doesn’t mean there is no plan. They’ve been working away furiously at this for three years now. And are far better prepared than their British counterparts. And we have the Eu on our side.

BluePlanet

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This baffles me too. Leo and Simon have both said Irish government started planning for all contingencies the moment the referendum was called.

Just because they haven’t showed their hand-really wise decision. You don’t show your opposite number what your planning on these scenarios- doesn’t mean there is no plan. They’ve been working away furiously at this for three years now. And are far better prepared than their British counterparts. And we have the Eu on our side.

Time will tell.
Expanding dock port facilities requires substantial construction.
Putting up border infrastructure too.
At what point do they actually break ground?
Do they wait until other EU countries start treating Irish goods differently?

brickster69

BluePlanet wrote: »

The government has on several occasions said they are not planning to install border infrastructure, what else could that mean?

Everyone said there will be no border. What is the problem ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6ljJhZZo5s

Stop moaning ffs

I’m far more concerned about the DUP backing a plan allowing the uk dump radioactive waste just between the border and newry than I am a border that even if goes up won’t be there long.
This is something with far more dangerous consequences imo

Enzokk

trellheim wrote: »

Maybe. However the Corbyn alternative would force them to vote the party line in my view since that forces an immediate GE and the implied "My Brexit's harder than your Brexit" contest between the Tories and the Brexit party that would immediately ensure, in the process further wrecking the Conservative party.


Theres also an interesting dynamic here - how far will the members stretch positions given the above alternative , a new PM knows this situation exists.

I don't know what could be worse, Corbyn in government or Johnson or Leadsom or McVey taking the UK out of the EU with no-deal. One will do very little damage to the country but could hurt your party, the other will really hurt the country and destroy your party. For me there is no argument what should be done, then again I do think I am reasonable.

devnull

Tory Leadership contenders

- Michael Gove
- Matt Hancock
- Mark Harper
- Jeremy Hunt
- Sajid Javid
- Boris Johnson
- Andrea Leadsom
- Esther McVey
- Dominic Raab
- Rory Stewart

Rest didn't have enough support.

Some scary names on there.

trellheim

The Brexit party has the advantage of a simple mantra "straight out, WTO" , or "implement the referendum, innit, the people have spoken" .

If that gets put to the test in a GE

Joe_ Public

devnull wrote: »

Tory Leadership contenders

- Michael Gove
- Matt Hancock
- Mark Harper
- Jeremy Hunt
- Sajid Javid
- Boris Johnson
- Andrea Leadsom
- Esther McVey
- Dominic Raab
- Rory Stewart

Rest didn't have enough support.

Some scary names on there.

Amazed a couple of them even scrambled the necessary 8 mps backing. Heard Gove earlier referencing our "brilliant NI secretary Karen Bradley" when talking about solving the backstop. Whatever about snorting lines of coke, that really should put the fullstop to whatever chance he has of being next tory leader and, god forbid, pm.

Stop moaning ffs

Remember we’re lookihg at all this face up against the glass of the bubble they’re in.

Within the bubble he and the rest of them are inhaling the atmosphere within that bubble and saying all the right things.

That is terrifying from our POV. We can see what’s going to happen. But that’s what the ones they’re pitching to want to hear.

Not a one of them is looking down the road and considering all possible outcomes.

They just want the job and are saying anything and everything to get it.

Enzokk

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Remember we’re lookihg at all this face up against the glass of the bubble they’re in.

Within the bubble he and the rest of them are inhaling the atmosphere within that bubble and saying all the right things.

That is terrifying from our POV. We can see what’s going to happen. But that’s what the ones they’re pitching to want to hear.

Not a one of them is looking down the road and considering all possible outcomes.

They just want the job and are saying anything and everything to get it.

But the Brexit Party will use each pronouncement of them leaving with no-deal or leaving by 31st October come what may. If they don't do that then it will be weaponized against the Tories and they will feel they will need to pivot to the right to fight the Brexit Party, which is bad for us again.

In any other time I would agree with you somewhat, but with the sense of betrayal in the air and being used against the Tories and Labour the stakes are raised.

Stop moaning ffs

Enzokk wrote: »

But the Brexit Party will use each pronouncement of them leaving with no-deal or leaving by 31st October come what may. If they don't do that then it will be weaponized against the Tories and they will feel they will need to pivot to the right to fight the Brexit Party, which is bad for us again.

In any other time I would agree with you somewhat, but with the sense of betrayal in the air and being used against the Tories and Labour the stakes are raised.

Well just look at that re emerging ‘the Irish will do what we tell them’ attitude.
That attitude is a great example of the false sense of importance and place in all this they all have.
Any new attack on all fronts politically or new strategy is doomed to fail and be the undoing of whoever the pm is that leads it.

They aren’t looking outwards or forwards at all right now. Not one. Everything is going to backfire and in the worse damp squib embarrassing way.

Personally can’t wait for September to see it all kick off again.

Joe_ Public

Thats certainly true about living inside the bubble. What i find hard to figure out is whether any of those wannabe conservative leaders actually believe even half their own rhetoric and i'm inclined to think not, because if any of them were in any way truthful at all, they'd spell out just what a horrible quandary they're in, one which almost certainly has no positive outcome for any of them. None of them are going to renegotiate any kind of better deal, none of them are going to make any progress on the backstop, none of them are going to find a way to appeal to both sides of the brexit dividing line and are deluded to think they can. Not that he really deserves it on his performance but simply by default, the cards could yet play right for Corbyn here. Every time i hear Gove or one of the others raise the prospect of a Corbyn-led government as a tory vision of hell, it just makes me that bit more eager to see the reality of it.

Stop moaning ffs

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Thats certainly true about living inside the bubble. What i find hard to figure out is whether any of those wannabe conservative leaders actually believe even half their own rhetoric and i'm inclined to think not, because if any of them were in any way truthful at all, they'd spell out just what a horrible quandary they're in, one which almost certainly has no positive outcome for any of them. None of them are going to renegotiate any kind of better deal, none of them are going to make any progress on the backstop, none of them are going to find a way to appeal to both sides of the brexit dividing line and are deluded to think they can. Not that he really deserves it on his performance but simply by default, the cards could yet play right for Corbyn here. Every time i hear Gove or one of the others raise the prospect of a Corbyn-led government as a tory vision of hell, it just makes me that bit more eager to see the reality of it.

That’s a great point.
Thing is they *do* know. Or at least I hope they do. Some of them at least.
Whoever gets that job is in exactly the same situation May was. That’s just a fact.

If they were just honest about it there’s be a light in the darkness.

Thing is saying that any of them, is out get them the job.

So back to square one.

Joe_ Public

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s a great point.
Thing is they *do* know. Or at least I hope they do. Some of them at least.
Whoever gets that job is in exactly the same situation May was. That’s just a fact.

If they were just honest about it there’s be a light in the darkness.

Thing is saying that any of them, is out get them the job.

So back to square one.

I think they are in an even worse situation than may, because i'm certain there will be much more resistance to another extension which gove has already suggested he'd look for and i think boris and a few others would go the same way too. I personally doubt they'd get it so no more can kicking. So they're left with the choice of taking the UK out, frustrating parliament in the process or bailing out altogether with a move to revoking A50. Either path likely leads to a vote of confidence and GE. I honestly dont know why anyone would wish to be tory leader at this particular point in history. Cant see any positive outcome to it.

Capt'n Midnight

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Amazed a couple of them even scrambled the necessary 8 mps backing. Heard Gove earlier referencing our "brilliant NI secretary Karen Bradley" when talking about solving the backstop. Whatever about snorting lines of coke, that really should put the fullstop to whatever chance he has of being next tory leader and, god forbid, pm.

He's going for a love in with the DUP and has form for going against the GFA.

And / or he'll revert to backstabbing once it becomes politically expedient.

bilston

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Amazed a couple of them even scrambled the necessary 8 mps backing. Heard Gove earlier referencing our "brilliant NI secretary Karen Bradley" when talking about solving the backstop. Whatever about snorting lines of coke, that really should put the fullstop to whatever chance he has of being next tory leader and, god forbid, pm.

Gove's Coke revelations have probably done for him, Hunt seems to have a bit of momentum behind him. He has some significant backers amongst Tory MPs now.

It's probably irrelevant, if Johnson gets to the run off he will almost certainly win.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s a great point.
Thing is they *do* know. Or at least I hope they do. Some of them at least.
Whoever gets that job is in exactly the same situation May was. That’s just a fact.

If they were just honest about it there’s be a light in the darkness.

Thing is saying that any of them, is out get them the job.

So back to square one.

Illustrated beautifully by the fact that Hunt is being supported by Mordaunt and Rudd. One a member of the ERG and an arch Brexiteer. The other a One Nation Tory and Pro Europe. Plus ca change.

lawred2

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Amazed a couple of them even scrambled the necessary 8 mps backing. Heard Gove earlier referencing our "brilliant NI secretary Karen Bradley" when talking about solving the backstop. Whatever about snorting lines of coke, that really should put the fullstop to whatever chance he has of being next tory leader and, god forbid, pm.

Best most don't even know who Karen Bradley is and what her role in NI is.

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

Best most don't even know who Karen Bradley is and what her role in NI is.

Nor does she herself it seems.

Roger_007

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s a great point.
Thing is they *do* know. Or at least I hope they do. Some of them at least.
Whoever gets that job is in exactly the same situation May was. That’s just a fact.

If they were just honest about it there’s be a light in the darkness.

Thing is saying that any of them, is out get them the job.

So back to square one.

The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that all the candidates for the Tory leadership job must be political idiots. Whoever gets the job is on a hiding to nothing.
They are all making promises about Brexit that they must know are not achievable with the current parliamentary arithmetic.
They all know that they dare not precipitate a GE because Farage would thrash them. So the arithmetic is going to stay the same.
If any of them have any political sense, they would drop out of this contest and bide their time until a better opportunity presents itself. I would expect a couple of the leading contenders, (maybe even Boris), to drop out for this very reason.

(btw where is Rees-Mogg hiding these days? He's keeping a very low profile).

Professor Moriarty

Roger_007 wrote: »

The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that all the candidates for the Tory leadership job must be political idiots. Whoever gets the job is on a hiding to nothing.
They are all making promises about Brexit that they must know are not achievable with the current parliamentary arithmetic.
They all know that they dare not precipitate a GE because Farage would thrash them. So the arithmetic is going to stay the same.
If any of them have any political sense, they would drop out of this contest and bide their time until a better opportunity presents itself. I would expect a couple of the leading contenders, (maybe even Boris), to drop out for this very reason.

(btw where is Rees-Mogg hiding these days? He's keeping a very low profile).

No way will Boris drop out. This is his chance, the chance for which he's lied all his life.

Stop moaning ffs

Roger_007 wrote: »

The only thing that can be said with any certainty is that all the candidates for the Tory leadership job must be political idiots. Whoever gets the job is on a hiding to nothing.
They are all making promises about Brexit that they must know are not achievable with the current parliamentary arithmetic.
They all know that they dare not precipitate a GE because Farage would thrash them. So the arithmetic is going to stay the same.
If any of them have any political sense, they would drop out of this contest and bide their time until a better opportunity presents itself. I would expect a couple of the leading contenders, (maybe even Boris), to drop out for this very reason.

(btw where is Rees-Mogg hiding these days? He's keeping a very low profile).

Yep. And that level of arrogance and self assurance they all seem to have suggests they’re all cool on coke tbh

BluePlanet

I'm not sure they particularly care about the macro political landscape.

I'm convinced most of these politicians, May included, are just in it for their own celebrity.
Maybe this is their ticket to vain glorious fame and riches, also providing the opportunity to
jettison those pesky local constituent matters.