Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They can't reopen the deal. It's an existential matter for the EU. If they back down to the likes of Boris or Raab, then the likes of Orban and Salvini will immediately be knocking on the door.

As has been obvious for quite a time, the UK have to choose one of three options:

1: Revoke Art 50 and remain in the EU.

2: Accept the already agreed WA. They could look to agree a new political declaration, but that would only be window dressing.

3: Leave without a deal, and face economic hardship and chaos.

This has not changed, and the fact that the current HoC has rejected the WA with a historical vote against it, and has changed the law to prevent a crash-out before the EP elections, and is likely to do more of the same, it looks like the first option is the only one left.

So, to change the options, only a GE or a second referendum will be the outcome, and a second referendum can only produce a similar result as not enough people appear to have changed the views.

I expect a long extension in October, and a GE before year end followed by revoke.

trellheim

Sam Russell wrote: »

As has been obvious for quite a time, the UK have to choose one of three options:

1: Revoke Art 50 and remain in the EU.

2: Accept the already agreed WA. They could look to agree a new political declaration, but that would only be window dressing.

3: Leave without a deal, and face economic hardship and chaos.

This has not changed, and the fact that the current HoC has rejected the WA with a historical vote against it, and has changed the law to prevent a crash-out before the EP elections, and is likely to do more of the same, it looks like the first option is the only one left.

So, to change the options, only a GE or a second referendum will be the outcome, and a second referendum can only produce a similar result as not enough people appear to have changed the views.

I expect a long extension in October, and a GE before year end followed by revoke.

Disagree - option 2 is not window dressing , its a good WA and the Pol dec has been repeatedly stated as up for discussion by all concerned ( as a strong basis for proceeding to future trade talks etc )

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Disagree - option 2 is not window dressing , its a good WA and the Pol dec has been repeatedly stated as up for discussion by all concerned ( as a strong basis for proceeding to future trade talks etc )

Well, yes but it is not legally binding so can be changed, unlike the WA which is not up for negotiating and IS legally binding.

No-one likes the WA and most detest it for every reason possible. It is either too much like the current arrangement (for remainers, so why bother) or its too much like the current arrangement (for Brexiteers, when they wanted to leave and keep the £350 m per week, to leave and gain our freedom from the EU and its lack of democracy, to leave and escape its vassalage, to leave and be free from its FOM, to leave and escape oversight by its ECJ, etc. etc. etc.).

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

its a good WA

It's as good as the UK can possibly get, yet they still hate it.


They just have to join the dots and work out that there is no good Brexit.

Hurrache

Junker now out the door on this
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1138459317110300672

An Ciarraioch

Labour table a motion "preventing" no deal, but without a concrete alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement, it's merely window-dressing:

http://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1138460352805560320

Stop moaning ffs

Hurrache wrote: »

Junker now out the door on this
https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1138459317110300672

I’d love to see the reactions from any of those running for PM to this.
There won’t be any of course. They’re in full in the sand mode.

robinph

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Labour table a motion "preventing" no deal, but without a concrete alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement, it's merely window-dressing:

http://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1138460352805560320

Yep, but it takes a bit of the wind out of the sails of the leadership contenders claiming that they will just go for no deal somehow and ignore the will of parliament by parliament getting in their first and pointing out that it isn't going to happen. *




* Hopefully.

trellheim

Some history - remember we did all this beforehand, a couple of months ago, with the same parliament ?

No Deal Rejected 321 to 278

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-parliament-votes-to-reject-no-deal-brexit-2/

Option C (Ken Clarke): Make it UK law to negotiate a customs union with the EU. REJECTED by 273 - 276

Option D (Nick Boles): Common Market 2.0/Norway-plus. REJECTED by 261 - 282

Option E (Peter Kyle): Put any agreed Brexit deal to a public vote. REJECTED by 280 - 292

Option G (Joanna Cherry): Give parliament a final vote to avoid no-deal and revoke Article 50 as a last resort. REJECTED by 191 - 292

https://www.dw.com/en/uk-parliament-rejects-all-brexit-indicative-votes-to-find-way-forward/a-48149796

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

Some history - remember we did all this beforehand, a couple of months ago, with the same parliament ?

No Deal Rejected 321 to 278

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-parliament-votes-to-reject-no-deal-brexit-2/

Option C (Ken Clarke): Make it UK law to negotiate a customs union with the EU. REJECTED by 273 - 276

Option D (Nick Boles): Common Market 2.0/Norway-plus. REJECTED by 261 - 282

Option E (Peter Kyle): Put any agreed Brexit deal to a public vote. REJECTED by 280 - 292

Option G (Joanna Cherry): Give parliament a final vote to avoid no-deal and revoke Article 50 as a last resort. REJECTED by 191 - 292

https://www.dw.com/en/uk-parliament-rejects-all-brexit-indicative-votes-to-find-way-forward/a-48149796

If they are faced with a 'No Deal Exit' by the 31st Ocyober with no extension, then those votes can be revisited, and many who voted for particular options were doing so hoping their preferred option would be available. If it is revoke or No Deal, well?

Capt'n Midnight

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Brexiteers jumping all over this as a sign of a EU backdown:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1138652/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Ireland-border-no-deal-Brexit-latest-update

Home Secretary Sajid Javid, a Tory leadership contender, yesterday said the Government could pay “hundreds of million of euros” to create a technological border fix and break the Brexit deadlock.

The border needs a methodology that doesn't exist yet and technology that doesn't exist yet and it's a fair assumption that many people will be tempted to undermine it for political and financial reasons.


Recruitment for the UK armed forces is a process that's been going on for hundreds of years, you don't need to invent new scannerising technology ,everyone has a vested interest in making it work so throwing “hundreds of million of euros” at it should get you something that works ?

It was outsourced to Capita in 2012 for nearly half a billion pounds. And then the delays and cost overruns started. The UK army has spent £677 million so far, 47% of applicants drop out because it's taking almost a year to process them and they are only hitting 80% of the recruitment target. Maybe they'll hit 100% 10 years after starting the project.

trellheim

If they are faced with a 'No Deal Exit' by the 31st Ocyober with no extension, then those votes can be revisited, and many who voted for particular options were doing so hoping their preferred option would be available. If it is revoke or No Deal, well?

ie. an action rerun of earlier and absolutely no reason to expect any change , a new PM notwithstanding since on balance nearly all the candidates running were in TM's cabinet.

Cal4567

Just my 5 cents worth.

I am in the UK for a number of months each year. When I am at home, and reading forums such as this, I sense there is a view that broadly is - 'the UK will see sense and revoke Article 50'. However, when I speak to friends and collegues in the UK, they are mostly adamant that the UK will leave, that now there is no going back. I don't even get a view that the UK will fall off a cliff and that is coming from Remainers I know and respect. They seem to accept the UK will suffer but don't think it will be too troublesome.

Also, during the referendum, even people I know who voted Remain, were very critcal of the EU. Really wanted to see a better deal for the UK in the EU. I struggled to locate anyone who had much to say anything positive about the EU.

I'm non commital either way myself but my perception is the UK will now leave and leave by 31 October.

Sam Russell

Cal4567 wrote: »

Just my 5 cents worth.

I think you are undervaluing your opinion - or overvaluing the opinion of your UK friends. In June 2016, your 5 cents was worth 3.75 pence. Today, it would be worth 4.45 pence.

After 40 years of Boris Lies, fed to that bastion of truth and goodness, the Daily Telegraph, no wonder they cannot see anything good about the EU. He thought it a jolly jape to make them up and likened it to throwing rocks and hearing the distant sound of breaking glass as they landed.

Obviously they have studied how the EU works and understand how bad it is.

Except the EHiC helath insurance card.

Or the 'No roaming charges' or no extra charges for credit card usage.

Or the freedom to work in other EU countries or take advantage of the Erasmus scheme.

Or the single market that allows free access with unified standards and no customs, which helped the UK to become such a power house in services.

Or the Common Agriculture policy that allowed the EU to guarantee its food supply.

Or plenty of other EU measures that make Europe a great place to live.

Mind you, the EU has been free from war and famine in Europe since 1960, but that is just a by the way. The UK have been involved in plenty of wars since the end of WW II, so perhaps absence of war is not so important.

Of course the EU is not perfect - yet.

johnnyskeleton

Cal4567 wrote: »

Also, during the referendum, even people I know who voted Remain, were very critcal of the EU. Really wanted to see a better deal for the UK in the EU. I struggled to locate anyone who had much to say anything positive about the EU.

That the EU needs to, depending on your view, either reform or carry out a better PR exercise is beyond question. Personally, I think the two biggest misteps were taking ten new members in 2004 & 2007 rather than over a longer period e.g. over 20 years, perhaps requiring EEA membership for a decade beforehand, and, more importantly, taking it for granted that the man on the street knew what the EU did simply because his elected representatives seemed to be vaguey aware of it.

However, all that has changed since the brexit vote and the whole issue of not wanting an ever closer union has become toxic, to the point that only far right groups promote it.

What is completely lost in the UK is any sense of the invisible benefits of EU membership. No intra member states war being the biggie but economic stability being the other.

If you were to ask the same people who are critical of the EU if they would like to join and be a leading member of an international organisation that promotes peace and prosperity, Im sure they would all leap at that proposition.

I'm non commital either way myself but my perception is the UK will now leave and leave by 31 October.

Or keep extending until people have lost interest, providing the Labour/Tory duopoly can survive the next election!

mickoneill31

Cal4567 wrote: »

Just my 5 cents worth.

I am in the UK for a number of months each year. When I am at home, and reading forums such as this, I sense there is a view that broadly is - 'the UK will see sense and revoke Article 50'. However, when I speak to friends and collegues in the UK, they are mostly adamant that the UK will leave, that now there is no going back. I don't even get a view that the UK will fall off a cliff and that is coming from Remainers I know and respect. They seem to accept the UK will suffer but don't think it will be too troublesome..

It depends on the demographic you're dealing with. In my bubble anybody I've spoken to thinks leaving the EU is lunacy. But the people I met are typically from the South.

I met one guy from Manchester a couple of week ago that was a Brexiter though. When I asked why it was "because the EU was deciding 60% of the UKs laws".When I asked where that came from he couldn't give any examples and it was what "he was told "

The UK is split. Leave or remain I think it's still shagged. The problem now isn't the EU its their government. And leave or remain they're going to continue to blame the EU for stuff they don't want to take responsibility for.

BonnieSituation

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think you are undervaluing your opinion - or overvaluing the opinion of your UK friends. In June 2016, your 5 cents was worth 3.75 pence. Today, it would be worth 4.45 pence.

After 40 years of Boris Lies, fed to that bastion of truth and goodness, the Daily Telegraph, no wonder they cannot see anything good about the EU. He thought it a jolly jape to make them up and likened it to throwing rocks and hearing the distant sound of breaking glass as they landed.

Obviously they have studied how the EU works and understand how bad it is.

Except the EHiC helath insurance card.

Or the 'No roaming charges' or no extra charges for credit card usage.

Or the freedom to work in other EU countries or take advantage of the Erasmus scheme.

Or the single market that allows free access with unified standards and no customs, which helped the UK to become such a power house in services.

Or the Common Agriculture policy that allowed the EU to guarantee its food supply.

Or plenty of other EU measures that make Europe a great place to live.

Mind you, the EU has been free from war and famine in Europe since 1960, but that is just a by the way. The UK have been involved in plenty of wars since the end of WW II, so perhaps absence of war is not so important.

Of course the EU is not perfect - yet.

[NOTE: I don't think the point I was making was clear]

Funnily enough the EU wasn't actually free of war.

There was a civil war ongoing in one of its member States until the late 90s. What member State might that have been?

---

EDIT: I pretty much agree with everything that Sam says above.

What I was alluding to was that, despite the fact that the EU was really a peace project to begin with, it always struck me that the most troublesome member who never really figured out its place within it, was the one member who had a civil war on its territory during its membership.

Only God knows where we would be without the EU and what state the north might be in given the complete intransigence of the British State towards it.

It's just fascinating!

volchitsa

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Funnily enough the EU wasn't actually free of war.

There was a civil war ongoing in one of its member States until the late 90s. What member State might that have been?

Which of course began half a decade before we joined the EEC as it then was, and the EU was instrumental in helping to promote all sorts of peace initiatives.

For several years after the GFA, the EU was firing money at pretty much any cross-community cooperative scheme (from personal experience). If the British government had been half as ready to play its part and really work on the fundamental social problems that NI has, we would probably be a lot better off now. But I don't think we can blame the Eu for that. Ingrained inequalities seem to be an inherent part of the British system.

gooch2k9

Are the EU going to carry out a review of progress this month? I know Tusk/Juncker have said this won't lead to an end of the extension but frankly that should be on the cards now. The UK were told not to waste the time given. This leadership contest is doing precisely that and will change nothing as the EU have stated.

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Funnily enough the EU wasn't actually free of war.

There was a civil war ongoing in one of its member States until the late 90s. What member State might that have been?

That is one of the problems with the EU. It is not within the competence of the EU to involve itself with internal political matters within a member state. (For example, the Catalan situation in Spain was not seen as a concern that required EU intervention. There was also a problem with the Basque independence in Spain).

However, Michel Barnier was very well aquainted with the matter and that may have informed his attitude to the backstop.

The EU has areas where it alone has competence. (EG Trade deals, or monetary policy for Euro countries) There are areas where it does not have competence. (EG Local voting systems, or tourism). Shared competence exists in areas like consumer protecion and transport.

Many of the areas that are cited by Brexiteers as reasons to leave the EU do not form any part of the EU competency - like austerity, lack of police numbers, or many of the Boris lies.

Spanish Eyes

I feel done in now, looking at the way the potential incumbents for PM are trying to be more Brexit than the Brexit Party.

However they are playing to the MPs who might support them. So now we know who they are. 50 50 Hard brexiteers and softer (intelligent and realistic) MPs now.

And when two candidates are left, it is then up to the Conservative members to choose.

Honestly if any of them spoke about democracy or the will of the people, I would have to put my knuckles in the small of my back. But I would never even contemplate putting my knuckles anywhere else, was just an image of a tiny bit of rage at what is enfolding now.

An Ciarraioch

Polling confirmation that there are four electorally significant parties in the UK at present (but will the Brexit Party still exist next year?):

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1138554485373116417

A Dub in Glasgo

Cal4567 wrote: »

Just my 5 cents worth.

I am in the UK for a number of months each year. When I am at home, and reading forums such as this, I sense there is a view that broadly is - 'the UK will see sense and revoke Article 50'. However, when I speak to friends and collegues in the UK, they are mostly adamant that the UK will leave, that now there is no going back. I don't even get a view that the UK will fall off a cliff and that is coming from Remainers I know and respect. They seem to accept the UK will suffer but don't think it will be too troublesome.

Also, during the referendum, even people I know who voted Remain, were very critcal of the EU. Really wanted to see a better deal for the UK in the EU. I struggled to locate anyone who had much to say anything positive about the EU.

I'm non commital either way myself but my perception is the UK will now leave and leave by 31 October.

I am in the UK for 26 years and most folk I know feel absolutely betrayed with the leave campaign and would not hesitate to vote remain in any future referendum. This is what the leave side are scared stiff of

An Ciarraioch

Strangely, the Lib Dems actually rise under a Johnson premiership:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1138560501452038144

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Strangely, the Lib Dems actually rise under a Johnson premiership:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1138560501452038144

That's interesting. The Tories had a majority in 2015 with 37% of the vote.

Headshot

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Polling confirmation that there are four electorally significant parties in the UK at present (but will the Brexit Party still exist next year?):

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1138554485373116417

I wonder would the Lib Dems do a coalition with Labour?

Roger_007

Headshot wrote: »

I wonder would the Lib Dems do a coalition with Labour?

Not while Corbyn is the leader.

Corbyn is the reason why Labour are not soaring in the opinion polls.
Labour are just as hamstrung by their members as the Torys. Most Brits are conservative with a small 'c'. The Lib Dems would be mad to get into bed with Labour. They would be better off doing a deal with the SNP.

BonnieSituation

volchitsa wrote: »

Which of course began half a decade before we joined the EEC as it then was, and the EU was instrumental in helping to promote all sorts of peace initiatives.

For several years after the GFA, the EU was firing money at pretty much any cross-community cooperative scheme (from personal experience). If the British government had been half as ready to play its part and really work on the fundamental social problems that NI has, we would probably be a lot better off now. But I don't think we can blame the Eu for that. Ingrained inequalities seem to be an inherent part of the British system.

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is one of the problems with the EU. It is not within the competence of the EU to involve itself with internal political matters within a member state. (For example, the Catalan situation in Spain was not seen as a concern that required EU intervention. There was also a problem with the Basque independence in Spain).

However, Michel Barnier was very well aquainted with the matter and that may have informed his attitude to the backstop.

The EU has areas where it alone has competence. (EG Trade deals, or monetary policy for Euro countries) There are areas where it does not have competence. (EG Local voting systems, or tourism). Shared competence exists in areas like consumer protecion and transport.

Many of the areas that are cited by Brexiteers as reasons to leave the EU do not form any part of the EU competency - like austerity, lack of police numbers, or many of the Boris lies.

For Clarity:

I pretty much agree with everything that Sam says above.

What I was alluding to was that, despite the fact that the EU was really a peace project to begin with, it always struck me that the most troublesome member who never really figured out its place within it, was the one member who had a civil war on its territory during its membership.

Only God knows where we would be without the EU and what state the north might be in given the complete intransigence of the British State towards it.

It's just fascinating!

joeysoap

Anyone see the news tonight where is showed William and Kate visiting a sheep farm in the north of England. The father voted remain and the son voted Brexit. Father is now worried about future payments and son is worried where their sheep will go in the event of import duties/restrictions into the EU.

Bit late.

Ireland had a civil war in the last few decades? Or am I misreading that post?