Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

54and56

trellheim wrote: »

HOW ON EARTH DID BOJO get 114 votes

Have you seen the demographic profile of the MP's who are voting? Predominantly white, middle to upper class, university educated, middle aged and looking for someone who can be the new Churchill that will save them from either Corbyn to the left or Farage to the right.

Bojo is a Hail Mary pass by the Conservative party whose #1 priority by far is saving their own skins even if that costs the country in a No Deal Brexit.

10000maniacs

Flex wrote: »

So sifting through her usual waffle narrative/reporting format of the ‘EU are terrified, desparate to avoid no deal, dying to water down/abandon the backstop, we have them on the ropes lads’, what she’s after saying is “if Ireland announces its happy to remove the backstop and settle for something else, other EU leaders will support that, but otherwise the EU have no intention of dropping it or threatening Ireland/throwing Ireland under a bus”

The idea that there’s “wiggle room” means Ireland is about to abandon the backstop or that the EU is about to abandon Ireland. Genuinely baffled that she seems to have put either of those two scenarios together and believes they’re credible enough to report

If there is wiggle room on the backstop, FG has wiggled.
If that's the case, it would go down like a lead balloon with FG voters. Never going to happen.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

Yes indeed . Very clear example of Pandora's box - once open , cannot be put back to the way it was. All Cameron had to do was ignore the ERG and not hold the referendum.


Anyway here we all are on tenterhooks for the round 1 results. I hope but unlikely that Rory Stewart would get through

The referendum result has sent the party over to the hard right / far right. Cameron will be remembered as the guy who inflicted untold damage on the party and the country - worst PM ever

Spanish Eyes

The Wriggle room. A place they should all be consigned to with a blindfold, news blackout and a bottle of common sense.

trellheim

Right lads its gonna be no deal I cant see a way out now


Paddy power .... Boris is on 1/5 odds.

No deal in 2019 nodds 21/10

( all other choices at 1/3

Laois_Man

Just as a reminder: Beth Rigby questioned BJ's character and his use of language when describing veiled Muslim women as bank robbers and letterbox's and when he described May's deal as a suicide vest wrapped around Britain!

apparently now she's an evil cow but the liars and racists shouldn't be questioned

20silkcut

Strazdas wrote: »

The referendum result has sent the party over to the hard right / far right. Cameron will be remembered as the guy who inflicted untold damage on the party and the country - worst PM ever

Fully agreed his place in history is cemented.
I thought his handling of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was poor as well and then shortly after he announced a brexit vote. I remember being incredulous at the time. It was like he was trying to break up the Uk.
I sometimes wonder was he an ERG plant. He went to Eton with Boris and all maybe it was a long term strategy .

bilston

The race for second place is what interests me.

McVey is crazier than even Boris so I'd say her votes will probably go to Johnson now.

Leadsom is somewhere in between Johnson and Hunt, probably more in line with Raab, her votes could split.

Not sure about Harper, I hadn't heard of him until about 10 days ago!

Anyway the race for second is very much on, and Boris could yet do something really really silly. However in the current climate that would probably help him rather than hinder him.

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

Right lads its gonna be no deal I cant see a way out now


Paddy power .... Boris is on 1/5 odds.

No deal in 2019 nodds 21/10

( all other choices at 1/3

I made bets months ago that we would have hard border in 2019 and the pound would hit parity with the euro in 2019, with Boris in the hot seat i think i might be getting paid out

BluePlanet

Found this article on a pro-Brexit website proposing the way forward.
-Suggests No Deal, and WTO.
-Suggests a temporary 'Free Trade Agreement' until an actual agreement is made.
-Dismisses the Irish border issue.

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/avoiding-the-trap-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-the-way-ahead-for-a-new-prime-minister/

LeinsterDub

Strazdas wrote: »

The Tory Party are screwed. It seems the majority of their MPs are pro No Deal

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1139155458919403521

I'd expect who ever wins will have the shortest or one of the shortest terms as PM in history.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity

Nody

VinLieger wrote: »

I made bets months ago that we would have hard border in 2019 and the pound would hit parity with the euro in 2019, with Boris in the hot seat i think i might be getting paid out

I think the first is relatively likely; the second I'm not so sure about. I agree the pound would drop but so would the euro as people fled to yen and USD instead. The question is if the drop in the pound would be large enough to offset the difference during 2019 (I think once things settle down a bit more they will both recover with the euro taking a stronger lead over time leading to parity and beyond).

Hurrache

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1139155458919403521

I'd expect who ever wins will have the shortest or one of the shortest terms as PM in history.

Sure all they're missing anyway is a civil war.

Christy42

Hurrache wrote: »

Yeah, they got banned because Johnson whips were demanding photos of the ballot paper from those who said they'd vote for him to prove they did.

Link? That should get you permanently barred from running for office ever again IMO.

Absolutely trying to make the vote completely undemocratic.

trellheim

Christy42 wrote: »

Link? That should get you permanently barred from running for office ever again IMO.

Absolutely trying to make the vote completely undemocratic.

Doing the rounds on twitter

ancapailldorcha

BluePlanet wrote: »

Found this article on a pro-Brexit website proposing the way forward.
-Suggests No Deal, and WTO.
-Suggests a temporary 'Free Trade Agreement' until an actual agreement is made.
-Dismisses the Irish border issue.

https://briefingsforbrexit.com/avoiding-the-trap-of-the-withdrawal-agreement-the-way-ahead-for-a-new-prime-minister/

"Temporary free trade agreement" screams extension which means offering the EU and general election or a People's Vote.

Headshot

Rory Steward the only Conservative that is some what likeable among the contenders for PM.

Leroy42

Temporary FTA? What incentive would there be for the UK to remove itself for that? They won't pay the monies owed, no backstop and FTA? Where is the 'win' for the EU in that?

The UK seem to forget that all the other EU countries have their own electorate to answer to.

ancapailldorcha

Headshot wrote: »

Rory Steward the only Conservative that is some what likeable among the contenders for PM.

There's the problem. A candidate with broad appeal might be able to help heal the schism in British society but the Conservative party membership is probably going to prioritize Boris' bombast over Stewart's sensibility.

Water John

Odds are it'll be Hunt V Johnson. Live TV debate next Tues I think. Also the final two have to put up £150K for the conservative members vote. Is that a joke?
The final two will do a series of meetings all around the country. Will Boris last without, foot in mouth?
They can't do a Bertie Ahern on him and run him around so fast that the media can't ask him a question.

marno21

To me it seems that what this leadership contest is demonstrating the most is how ineffective the opposition is - even a moderately fit for purpose opposition would make absolute mincemeat of these clowns running for Tory leader, between the scandals, the lack of any understanding on several key issues and their record in Government.

There are no words to describe how desperately the UK needs a Labour party with a leader who does more than sit on a fence and reaches beyond "I think it would be great if I were PM".

Strazdas

20silkcut wrote: »

Fully agreed his place in history is cemented.
I thought his handling of the Scottish referendum in 2014 was poor as well and then shortly after he announced a brexit vote. I remember being incredulous at the time. It was like he was trying to break up the Uk.
I sometimes wonder was he an ERG plant. He went to Eton with Boris and all maybe it was a long term strategy .

The UK had virtually no history of referenda but suddenly Cameron in his arrogance thought he could start using them as a political tool. Brexit was an accident waiting to happen : under UK law, referendums have very little legal status but Cameron announced that the referendum was more important than Parliament and he would implement the result no matter what.

trellheim

Water John wrote: »

Odds are it'll be Hunt V Johnson. Live TV debate next Tues I think. Also the final two have to put up £150K for the conservative members vote. Is that a joke?
The final two will do a series of meetings all around the country. Will Boris last without, foot in mouth?
They can't do a Bertie Ahern on him and run him around so fast that the media can't ask him a question.

Boris winning depends on him not having to answer hard questions. If he keeps his mouth shut . Its also worth noting he has no ministry and no portfolio at the moment so has all the time in the world to devote to this and has had plenty of time to put together a professional team . Is Lynton Crosby on board, who is the string puller here does anyone know ?

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

The UK had virtually no history of referenda but suddenly Cameron in his arrogance thought he could start using them as a political tool. Brexit was an accident waiting to happen : under UK law, referendums have very little legal status but Cameron announced that the referendum was more important than Parliament and he would implement the result no matter what.

Except he didn't.

His 'success' with the Scottish one was based on a lie - that he would increase the powers of the Scottish Assembly which never happened - in fact the UK Gov removed some powers to itself.

He tried to do the same trick with the EU by going to Brussels to demand more opt outs but got little, and so painted the picture that the UK was subservient to the EU and thus bolstered the Brexit side. He should have required either a super majority - say 60%, or he should have required that each part of the UK voted for exit, or both.

He gambled and lost so ran away.

20silkcut

He was one of the most reckless pms in British history. Remember the tight opinion poll before the Scottish referendum and the queen got in a panic and Cameron dashed to Scotland, he looked a complete twit he confirmed it two years later. When the history books are written the harsh spotlight will definitely be on him and deservedly so.
Blame firmly at his door. We are all going to pay for it unfortunately.

ancapailldorcha

If things could get any weird, it seems that Boris Johnson is in favour of the free movement of people the stopping of which was the one consistent theme of the Leave campaign and the government's efforts to negotiate a deal according to Jonathan Lis, sometimes contributor to Politics.co.uk which is edited by Ian Dunt.

Lis' organisation was working as a think-tank communicating with European embassies in London pushing for a softer Brexit:

One day I talked to an ambassador who was particularly scathing about the level of chaos, disrespect and shambolic diplomacy. At one moment they leaned forward and said (exact words): ‘Boris Johnson has been openly telling us that he is personally in favour of free movement.’

Source here.

A cheap analysis is that Johnson will say anything depending on who he is talking to. He seems to fancy himself to be the next Churchill. However, Churchill's patriotism involved self sacrifice for King and country, Johnson's seems very much inclined the opposite way.

Enzokk

firemansam4 wrote: »

If come October Europe say no to any more extentions and give the UK one last chance to approve the WA.

Parliament has one straight choice of a vote between either No deal or the WA, I wonder what way that would go?
What way would Labour members vote? You would think that rational heads would have to just go with the WA rather than driving the UK over the cliff.
I can't see parliament voting for no deal under this circumstance.

Well we know that Labour will get hammered if they assist the UK leaving the EU and it has bad consequences. For me the choice is clear, but I know it is not that clear cut. They have lambasted May's deal so they cannot turn around and support it all of a sudden either, not without facing the wrath of their mainly remain base.

Strazdas

Sam Russell wrote: »

Except he didn't.

His 'success' with the Scottish one was based on a lie - that he would increase the powers of the Scottish Assembly which never happened - in fact the UK Gov removed some powers to itself.

He tried to do the same trick with the EU by going to Brussels to demand more opt outs but got little, and so painted the picture that the UK was subservient to the EU and thus bolstered the Brexit side. He should have required either a super majority - say 60%, or he should have required that each part of the UK voted for exit, or both.

He gambled and lost so ran away.

Absolutely : he took a gamble on the roulette wheel with his country's future and arrogantly thought he couldn't lose the referendum. All of the ensuing chaos has happened because he made no preparation for Leave winning. It was an utter disaster waiting to happen.

Sam Russell

Strazdas wrote: »

Absolutely : he took a gamble on the roulette wheel with his country's future and arrogantly thought he couldn't lose the referendum. All of the ensuing chaos has happened because he made no preparation for Leave winning. It was an utter disaster waiting to happen.

It was not just the lack of preparation if Leave won, it was lack of loading the dice to make sure Leave lost.

I mentioned using a super majority, but he should have made sure the question included a follow up referendum to back the actual terms of leaving - that is a second referendum. He should have also made clear in the legislation that leaving without a deal was ruled out either directly or required a much larger super majority.

He should never have been PM.

Spanish Eyes

How do you reckon BJ will do in a debate with the remaining (sorry) candidates? Not sure about Hunt, must check him out.

Such a pity that it looks like a tiny voice of reason in all this..... Rory Stewart may be knocked out next round. But even so, I think he may be a voice of the future. If there is any future for the Tories after all this that is.