Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Timberrrrrrrr

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Stewart worth a flutter at that price!

I've £10 on Hunt at 33/1

A Shropshire Lad

I am laying Bojo at 1.17 just becuase there is always a possibility with him that he will say or do something to torpedo his campaign

Sam Russell

BonnieSituation wrote: »

The systems differ in that the Dáil elect the Taoiseach whereas in the HOC, the PM, who by dint of being leader of the largest party will be summoned by the Queen to form a government that would be expected to command a majority/confidence in the HOC.

There's no procedure for testing this "command" outside of a confidence motion. So like everything in the "sink of parliamentary democracy" that is Britain, it's done on a nod and a wink and on the principal of "good chaps".

How anyone could think we are comparable is mad.

It is not quite like that.

The PM is appointed by the Monarch on the advice of the outgoing PM. If TM could not bring herself to advise that BJ should be PM, she could advise that whoever came second be appointed. If he (there is no female contender)can get sufficient support (unlikely) from the parliamentary party, then he could then command the majority in the HoC (unlikely) because his party does not command a majority as it is.

However, TM is still PM and could (yet) lob a grenade into the current situation.

Stop moaning ffs

O Brien just pointing out that those polls on the previous page are from the conservative and unionist party. Who are 63% advocating a break up of the Union.

You couldn’t make it up.

fash

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Still trying to process that they’d be happy to see the break up of the Union if it meant brexit.
Can only imagine they’ll change their tune post brexit and Scotland moves to leave.

... And yet a NI backstop which keeps the Union together and allows a super hard Brexit is anathema.

Sam Russell

fash wrote: »

... And yet a NI backstop which keeps the Union together and allows a super hard Brexit is anathema.

It is quite clear that all the decision makers wrt Brexit have a very limited understanding of:

1: The way the EU works, including the legal basis of the treaties.

2: What WTO trading is actually based on, and what it is not.

3: Basic trade negotiations and how important the details are, and how to avoid unintended consequences.

4: Sound bites do not actually count in negotiations.

5: Having a majority in a party that has not got a majority is not a good basis to make decisions that will have a generational change to the UK and how it operates.

Things will not work out well, however this Brexit mess unfolds.

54and56

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Although not really surprising , those results are possibly the most depressing thing I've seen in relation to Brexit.

It's the kind of behaviour I associate with meth amphetamine addition.

"I'll give up anything, my own body, my possessions, I'll steal from my loved ones, anything at all, just give me my meth Brexit"

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is quite clear that all the decision makers wrt Brexit have a very limited understanding of:

1: The way the EU works, including the legal basis of the treaties.

2: What WTO trading is actually based on, and what it is not.

3: Basic trade negotiations and how important the details are, and how to avoid unintended consequences.

4: Sound bites do not actually count in negotiations.

5: Having a majority in a party that has not got a majority is not a good basis to make decisions that will have a generational change to the UK and how it operates.

Things will not work out well, however this Brexit mess unfolds.

Johnson has pledged to take Britain out of the EU by 31st October. This is impossible with a new deal because the EU won't renegotiate and there wouldn't be time anyway. He and the HoC won't accept May's deal. He won't revoke Article 15.

It is a binary choice. On the 31st of October, they will have asked for (and may have been given) an extension. Or they will crash out.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson has pledged to take Britain out of the EU by 31st October. This is impossible with a new deal because the EU won't renegotiate and there wouldn't be time anyway. He and the HoC won't accept May's deal. He won't revoke Article 15.

It is a binary choice. On the 31st of October, they will have asked for (and may have been given) an extension. Or they will crash out.

Honestly, I have no idea whatsoever what is compelling Johnson to act in this manner. He is as ruthlessly gunning for the top job as he did last time. What is missing is a clear reason why. It's a poisoned chalice and he must be smart enough to realize this.

My prediction is that he'll become leader of his party by virtue of impressing the membership with his bigotry dressed up as un-PC humor, his ideological purity on Brexit and pandering to their prejudices. Then, one of two things will happen. Either reality will dawn and he will be forced to seek yet another extension from the EU27 who likely despise him or he will abdicate realizing that he's not just morally unfit to hold high office, he's also nowhere near capable of fulfilling the role of prime minister.

Should reality fail to dawn then we're locked into hard Brexit. I see no other outcome.

Leroy42

All politicians, well most of them at any rate, have an innate confidence in their own abilities to the extent that many of them fully believe that they are destined to be PM.

To lose out the last time would have hurt Johnson and he is not about to lose out again. Whilst we on the outside think it is a poisoned chalice, to the likes of Johnson they fully and firmly believe that the only thing wrong so far is that it wasn't them in charge.

The issue is not Brexit, the issue is TM and her lack of ability and lack of belief in Brexit. And Johnson has both (in his mind anyhow) both the ability and the belief.

Shelga

Leroy42 wrote: »

All politicians, well most of them at any rate, have an innate confidence in their own abilities to the extent that many of them fully believe that they are destined to be PM.

To lose out the last time would have hurt Johnson and he is not about to lose out again. Whilst we on the outside think it is a poisoned chalice, to the likes of Johnson they fully and firmly believe that the only thing wrong so far is that it wasn't them in charge.

The issue is not Brexit, the issue is TM and her lack of ability and lack of belief in Brexit. And Johnson has both (in his mind anyhow) both the ability and the belief.

But does he even believe in Brexit? Who knows. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him.

Stop moaning ffs

Wonder what the DUP make of that poll result earlier?

Roger_007

Regarding today's ballot, I wouldn't be surprised if some of 'remain' MPs who voted for BJ in the last ballot switched their votes to Stewart this time. He, (Stewart), has gone from being a no-hoper to being a credible candidate to give BJ a run for his money. I think Raab will lose out this time as he is now regarded as just too idiotic, (even for the Tories).
I also think Gove is losing ground as well.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

All politicians, well most of them at any rate, have an innate confidence in their own abilities to the extent that many of them fully believe that they are destined to be PM.

To lose out the last time would have hurt Johnson and he is not about to lose out again. Whilst we on the outside think it is a poisoned chalice, to the likes of Johnson they fully and firmly believe that the only thing wrong so far is that it wasn't them in charge.

The issue is not Brexit, the issue is TM and her lack of ability and lack of belief in Brexit. And Johnson has both (in his mind anyhow) both the ability and the belief.

It's too easy an explanation, IMO. It's not like I've a better one, mind you.

Once the business lobbies impress the extent to which a no deal Brexit would devastate the UK economy, he'll either shun them or abdicate. Nobody is daft enough to preside over a disaster like this. It's how Theresa May lasted so long. Hopefully Stewart uses the possibility of a Corbyn premiership to sway the members but that's unlikely to match Boris and his jokes.

Leroy42

Shelga wrote: »

But does he even believe in Brexit? Who knows. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him.

Nobody can believe in Brexit that has given it even a cursory glance. Well not believe that it is a good idea for the country as a whole.

From the very start, this has all been about the Tories. And they fully see Brexit as the only way to save the party, the country be damned.

They are lucky that what should be their opposition, the Labour party, are of a similar thinking. And the very fact that Labour are simply allowing the Tories to dominate the news agenda, instead of rightfully attacking each and everyone of the candidates and the Tories decision to have another vote on leader despite having one only a few years ago, shows how utterly useless they are.

4068ac1elhodqr

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

I am laying Bojo at 1.17 just becuase there is always a possibility with him that he will say or do something to torpedo his campaign

Very terrible odds indeed, elevated/leveraged risk of e.g. 1,000units to gain just 170?

Have backed Boris some time ago at about 6.5, if he gets TBP to join forces (somewhat likely), they've just won any general election.

Boris has already deflected awkward question, and will likely continue to do so, a shake of the moppy hair, a bit of blustering and quick change of topic.

Not sure Hunt has any chance, he's only gone and said he supports Trump/Hopkins views slating Khan's 'stab city' after another weekend of street fatalaties.

Quin_Dub

54&56 wrote: »

It's the kind of behaviour I associate with meth amphetamine addition.

"I'll give up anything, my own body, my possessions, I'll steal from my loved ones, anything at all, just give me my meth Brexit"

It's more the fact that they are willing to accept any kind of pain to achieve Brexit , except a Labour Government.

Basically they are saying "We don't care what happens or how awful it is for everyone as long as we are still in charge"

ancapailldorcha

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It's more the fact that they are willing to accept any kind of pain to achieve Brexit , except a Labour Government.

Basically they are saying "We don't care what happens or how awful it is for everyone as long as we are still in charge"

Except they won't experience any hardship themselves. It'll be borderline areas heavily reliant on a single employer like Nissan in Sunderland or Honda in Swindon who'll take the hit. Wealthy, southeastern Tories will continue to live comfortable affluent lives propped up by the rest of the nation.

Leroy42

True, but even those places that you mentioned have not turned against Brexit at this stage. Even if one was to dismiss all the forecasts there is still, 3 years after the vote, been no actual benefits put forward save for sovereignty or 'control'. Both totally useless concepts when you are are facing unemployment and lack in future investment.

It is odd, because most elections are dominated by the party that promises more. More tax cuts, better schools etc etc. Brexit seems to have turned this on it head whereby voters are seemingly happy to to told they will lose out directly with the promise of something sometime in the future. Although no details of what or when can be given.

devnull

Nothing we didn't already know but they really are Party before country:
https://news.sky.com/story/andrea-leadsom-endorses-boris-johnson-in-tory-leadership-race-11743885

Tory members would be willing to sacrifice the union, risk destroying their party or suffer economic damage to deliver Brexit, a poll suggests.

The YouGov survey of party members suggests that almost half (46%) would be happy to have the Brexit Party's Nigel Farage as their new leader.

A total of 63% of members would be prepared to see Brexit take place even if it meant Scotland leaving the UK.

The poll also found:

Some 61% would rather Brexit was delivered even if it caused "significant damage" to the economy;

59% would prioritise leaving the EU even if it meant Northern Ireland breaking away from the rest of the UK;

54% would accept the Tory party "being destroyed" in order to see Britain leave;

Only 39% of members said they would want Brexit to happen if it meant Jeremy Corbyn becoming the next prime minister.

The fact that more people would vote for Brexit if it had an impact on the country than people would vote of it if it impacted their party pretty much says it all.

Then you have those who suddenly wouldn't want Brexit if it meant Labour were getting into power, it's abll about themselves and always has been, completely sickening.

The UK is in for a very rough few years to come and it will be all their own fault as they have completely left from their senses and it seems a real big shock and depression is needed to bring people to their senses.

Sorry - didn't realise it had already been posted.

BonnieSituation

When does the next round of voting begin?

Professor Moriarty

BonnieSituation wrote: »

When does the next round of voting begin?

It's happening now. Most MPs have already voted.

Dytalus

BonnieSituation wrote: »

When does the next round of voting begin?

Going on currently, results expected at 6pm. There'll be more rounds tomorrow and Thursday as I understand it.

A Shropshire Lad

You would think at some level the working class people who voted Brexit should be slightly concerned that the main proponants of Brexit are the right wing of the Tory Party, including many Eton educated snobs. My question would be "whats in it for them". Because ultimately, people are planning to line their pockets and it wont be Joe Bloggs getting rich.
Selling off the NHS will be number one on the agenda possibly, or another raft of privatisation, deregulation of the City. I am assuming that these EU laws they are always banging on about are getting in the way of such plans at the moment

Enzokk

So Johnson seems to have learned the art of telling everyone what they want to hear.

What Boris Johnson said next to business

Boris Johnson attempted to mend some fences with the business community this morning.

His infamous expletive caused widespread shock within industry and highlighted for many how relations had soured between business and the party that used to be its natural champion.

He started by telling the 40 or so business leaders that those remarks had been taken out of context. The truth, he said, was that he had always loved business, and attendees I've spoken to were prepared to believe that his comment was indeed an off-the-cuff Borisism.

The interesting part is the following for me,

Mr Johnson's plan appeared to be to defer the negotiations over the problematic Irish backstop till after the UK leaves the EU on 31 October. He proposed extending the transition period till December 2021, which would give everyone enough time to negotiate a free-trade deal and come up with the technology to ensure no physical infrastructure would be required at the Irish border.

This plan is roughly the same as the one suggested by Kit Malthouse. A plan that was dismissed by the EU as it required the backstop to be replaced by a solution that does not yet exist and therefore couldn't be considered a backstop at all.

So he will go to the EU and demand that the Irish backstop be removed as part of the WA or they leave with no-deal. If the EU agrees then he wants to extend the transition to 2021 when a solution to the border will have been negotiated through a FTA and technology.

This article about Johnson is interesting as it delves into his past and his childhood growing up. It scared me a little to be honest.

The Empty Promise of Boris Johnson

It is hard not to discern a psychological motive in Johnson’s assault on the E.U. machine. As his siblings have pointed out, Brussels had been a deeply unhappy place for him as a child. The Johnsons had lived in a big house in the suburbs, next to a forest. According to Purnell, Rachel Johnson, Boris’s younger sister and also a prominent journalist, has compared life at the time to “The Ice Storm,” the Rick Moody novel about a disintegrating family. “There was the same bleakness, the disconnection,” she has said. Stanley had affairs, and the marriage slowly fell apart. When Johnson was ten, his mother, Charlotte, suffered a breakdown and was hospitalized for nine months. Boris and Rachel were sent to boarding school.

So in effect he has a chip on the shoulder with the EU as his father was sent their and he lived their during a very unhappy time in his childhood. That makes total sense to me, what worries me is that he will be in charge of trying to hurt the EU as much as possible and I don't know if he will care if he hurts the UK more as his people will not feel the effects that much.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

So he will go to the EU and demand that the Irish backstop be removed as part of the WA or they leave with no-deal. If the EU agrees then he wants to extend the transition to 2021 when a solution to the border will have been negotiated through a FTA and technology.

The EU will not agree to that under any circumstances, so they'll face the same choice in October as they did in March - No Deal, Extend or Revoke A50.


And the EU will not be as keen to extend this time, Macron will point to the utter waste the Brits made of the current extension and say why bother?

Joe_ Public

I see another Tory mp regurgitating the same fantasy on sky news just now. The EU will look on the who!e WA renegotiation issue once a new pm is in place apparently. The mp insisted he was " quite certain" about that. But the simple truth about this is that if this was anyway possible at all then the last person you would appoint on that basis is Boris Johnson.

Spanish Eyes

Would be great if RS gets through to the next round. I don't care if he wins the leadership, he probably won't, but Johnson's sneaky ploy of avoiding the debate on Sunday in the hope that RS would be out for tonight's debate might backfire on him. I think my mean streak will come out if RS gets through and I will grin, I can't help it.

ambro25

Brexit Party ordered by Electoral Commission to account for donations

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party has been told to check all £2.5 million donated to it to ensure it hasn't accepted cash from foreign donors.

The Party will be required to satisfy itself that every single £25 'supporter' fee was not from an impermissible source.

If they can't, they'll have to either return it to the donor or hand it over to the Treasury.

Considering that the Brexit Party, as an incorporated company, must be able to do exactly that for submissions to HMRC and Companies House, you'd think "no problem"...

...but then, Farage has already said that they can't (for Paypal donations).

In a related development, the Electoral Commission is also to give evidence about digital campaigning to MPs in Parliament, under absolute privilege rules (as I understand it, that means no possibility of suits for libel/slander available to Nigel and chums, so we should be able to expect "warts an all").

I know, I know. But at this stage of proceedings, looking at things...it's the small victories.

Harry Palmr

Stand by!

Boris Johnson 126
Gove 41
Hunt 46
Javid 33
Stewart 37

Raab 30 out

So as you were really. 2nd is a four horse race with Stewart coming up on the rail