Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

bilston

My maths could be wrong here as this is a quick calculation ..

However...
Lib Dem + Green + Change UK = 37%
Brexit Party + UKIP = 36.8%

Labour got 14.4% and the Tories 8.8%. The only fair way of doing the sums is to split those votes 50/50 (although in reality I suspect Labour would be weighted more towards Remain and the Tories towards Leave).

But even then it gives the Remain vote a narrow lead over Leave by something like 0.2%. (again given the likely nature of Labour and Tory voters it is probably a bigger lead for Remain).

Now that is far too close for my liking...however what it absolutely isn't is a mandate for a No Deal Brexit in any way shape or form. It's not even a mandate for Brexit.

Edit - also we haven't seen the NI results yet which will obviously make minimal difference but will presumably give more votes to Remain supporting parties than Leave.

S.M.B.

More proof that the country is deeply divided across geographical lines, across party lines and across socio economical lines.

Think a middle ground is drifting further and further away which is worrying.

trellheim

The only thing I can think of here is floating the idea of a Hiberno-Scottish Republic and letting London residents be a part of they want to, the rest of England and Wales can be the UK.

Leroy42

S.M.B. wrote: »

More proof that the country is deeply divided across geographical lines, across party lines and across socio economical lines.

Think a middle ground is drifting further and further away which is worrying.

Yeah it is deeply worrying in terms of the union itself. Scotland is the clearest sign of it, but depending on the Brexit itself NI may soon become a factor and clearly with England their is a clear gap opening up.

And that should be the bit that is most worrying, even for the likes of the Brexit Party. They like to claim, as does JRM, that what price sovereignty, but clearly the survival of the union itself could be the cost.

Is that, along with the clear economic costs with even the BP don't deny, really a price worth paying?

Zubeneschamali

S.M.B. wrote: »

Think a middle ground is drifting further and further away which is worrying.

Disagree. On Brexit, the middle ground is some sort of half-arsed Norway Brexit, which apparently everyone hates.


Increasing polarization means that the extreme position of No Brexit At All is getting more likely, which is good. Of course No Deal Brexit is also getting more likely, but say there is a referendum and people people vote for it, they get what they actually want vs. a compromise half Brexit no-one wants.

Harry Palmr

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Brexit Party basically took UKIP's vote plus a few percent from (presumably) the Tories and Lab. The interesting question is how many Tory and Lab votes went to the Lib Dems and the Greens. Those that stayed Tory/Lab are essentially the party faithful and/or those who are waiting for policy changes.

The % is easy to work out - LD up 14, Greens up 5. Lab down 10, Con down 16 so 19 up for remainers and 26 down for the big two.

That leaves 7%

UKIP down 25% - 25% plus 7% = 32%. Brexit party on 33%.

So Con/Lab went to remain parties 2.5/1 (I think I have that right - I'm no psephologist!)

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

And that should be the bit that is most worrying, even for the likes of the Brexit Party. They like to claim, as does JRM, that what price sovereignty, but clearly the survival of the union itself could be the cost.

While that may worry folks in Westminster, I think an Independent Scotland in the EU and a United Ireland are fine ideas.

Blowfish

trellheim wrote: »

The only thing I can think of here is floating the idea of a Hiberno-Scottish Republic and letting London residents be a part of they want to, the rest of England and Wales can be the UK.

Or, as I've seen mentioned (not particularly seriously) before, the neatest way for everyone to get what they want is for the UK to cancel article 50 and then England and Wales to leave the UK. Scotland and NI then get to stay in the EU under UK membership and England and Wales get to leave.

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

Cameron at least had the wit to set up a non-binding referendum. May was the short-sighted fool who decided to trigger Art.50 without identifying a precise and achievable outcome, and while there were already allegations of impropriety surrounding the Leave campaign. If anything, Cameron set things up so that she could walk away from his mess.

This frustrates me no end, last night Tim Montgomery said that the referendum in 2016 was binding on MPs, but the reason why there could be no reversal of the result due to the illegalities of the Leave campaigns was because it was non-binding. So this makes it even worse for me for Cameron, he somehow constructed the referendum be a legally non-binding referendum without legal protection but was politically binding. That takes some new level of incompetence.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Labour whether the leadership likes it or not are about to become a remain party I reckon.

Also the idea that Brexit party results will transpose to a big majority in the GE is ludicrous. They have no policies beyond leave and if they form some it'll repell many cos it'll be a vision of right wing claptrap.

I hope that the Brexit Party does what UKIP threatened to do in 2015, take away from the Conservative votes. Instead the referendum promise took all the wind out of the UKIP sails, one issue party, and was able to stop the bleeding that was threatening a Labour/SNP coalition.

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Nobody voted for personal candidates. It’s a party list system. This was clear in the returning officers results if nothing else, did you hear a personal Farage vote?

I’m aware of those polls. I clearly said that labour remainers have in general defected to the Lib Dems, Greens and other remain parties. Therefore those that voted for labour were in the overwhelming majority pro Brexit. The defectors left because labour was pro Brexit. And yet now it is claimed that all these Labour voters can be considered remain.

Again because the 65% of labour voters who voted remain probably didn’t vote for labour in this election. Labour got <10% of the votes here compared to 30.4% in the general election which maps exactly to the percentages that you say are remain vs leave.

Maybe there is some stickiness in the labour vote, maybe some voters defected to BP and some remain voters stayed, but as it stands labour is a Brexit party and it makes far more sense to say the reason they lost 60% of their vote was because remainers didn’t vote for them and that therefore what’s left are largely brexit voters.

That analysis makes far more sense than adding all of the labour voters in this election to the remain camp. Either exclude them, because we don’t know exactly or add them to the soft Brexit camp.

Your analysis falls apart for me in that you assume the following, that Labour with their frequent fence sitting about a second referendum and backing remain, did not lose any leave voters and lost all of their remain voters only. This is not realistic and thus you cannot say with certainty that they are a Leave party as this is the voters that they kept. I am telling you that there will be voters that voted Labour in London that want to remain in the EU and that knew while the party is for leave they are happy with their representation in the EU by their local MEP. I cannot see how the remaining Labour vote from what they lost in the last election was happy to vote for MEPs that are pro-EU in their views if they themselves believe that the country has to leave the EU.

At best you can say that the votes Labour retained has no stance on the EU and will follow the party whichever way it is pointing at the moment. That doesn't make it a Leave party, it makes it one that hasn't made up its mind (See Corbyn statement from last night with still more fence sitting) but who's members and MP's and MEP's are overwhelmingly for Remain.

As for the maps turning light blue (or whatever colour that is for the Brexit Party), it is misleading because you would have had a lot of voters voting strategically for remain parties in certain areas. I think the result would have looked a lot different had FPTP been used, still a lot of Brexit Party MEPs but the maps would looked as divided as the country is instead.

Professor Moriarty

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The % is easy to work out - LD up 14, Greens up 5. Lab down 10, Con down 16 so 19 up for remainers and 26 down for the big two.

That leaves 7%

UKIP down 25% - 25% plus 7% = 32%. Brexit party on 33%.

I agree with your stats analysis but my point is that we can't be sure as to how many disaffected Lab voters went to the Brexit Party or to Remain parties. Ditto the Tories.

Charles Babbage

trellheim wrote: »

The only thing I can think of here is floating the idea of a Hiberno-Scottish Republic and letting London residents be a part of they want to, the rest of England and Wales can be the UK.

Could we not make a case for Liverpool?

devnull

Jeremy Corbyn still sitting on the fence it seems, decision on new Labour policy going forward will be made in the next conference in September. Still won't say really what he stands for.

Will listen to members, public, supporters, local parties to rebuild the country, end austerity and take the fight to the Tories to deal with the many other issues in the country.

Wants to stop no deal, but most important thing is the general election and it seems that he'd just wish for Brexit to go away as he has no interest in dealing with it whatsoever.

He's taking his party into the abyss, they're rotting away at both ends, he's been on that fence so long that it's collapsing beneath him and he'll need a new one soon.

Akrasia

Two elections in a row where the two main parties were wiped out by the voters and remain options saw a surge in support.

If voting meant anything, these votes send a really loud message to Labour that their constituency want them to fully support remain

Leroy42

At least the likes of Chukka had the balls to walk away from Labour. Surely the likes of Starmer, Thornberry etc need to actively quit if Corbyn is unwilling to move until the next conference.

How can they continue to support their party when the party is taking the wrong choice over the most series political issue of their lives?

bilston

How is Corbyn still the leader of Labour?

Given the state of the UK govt (20+ govt resignations, a British PM resigning, numerous govt defeats in the HoC) the main opposition party in the UK (i.e. Labour) should be getting 40%+ of the vote. Instead they get 14%!!!!

What am I missing here?!!!!

Corbyn has to go.

devnull

Leroy42 wrote: »

At least the likes of Chukka had the balls to walk away from Labour. Surely the likes of Starmer, Thornberry etc need to actively quit if Corbyn is unwilling to move until the next conference.

I remember when Donald Tusk said back in April that the UK should not waste the time that they have been given to get their house in order and make their mind up rather than squabbling.

The Tories are going to be wasting a couple of months squabbling over who is going to be the next leader and Labour are kicking the can another 3 months down the road. I shouldn't be surprised by this, but it's another example of leaving everything to the last minute like happened in March.

How can they continue to support their party when the party is taking the wrong choice over the most series political issue of their lives?

Jeremy Corbyn doesn't care about Brexit - he wants to be Prime Minister and nothing will take his eyes off the big prize unfortunately, he sees the whole Brexit debate as an obstacle to his ability to talk about other things, he'd rather it was not there so he can talk about workers rights, unions, privatisation and everything else he keeps banging on about.

Labour is FIFTH in Scotland and THIRD in Wales, which is completely unheard of. Even in Corbyn's own area the Lib Dems have won and several prominent Labour figureheads like Alastair Campbell have voted for the Lib Dems. If he still doesn't get the message he never will.

I don't often agree with Tories, but Brandon Lewis was right when he said that Labour is now the 'Jeremy Corbyn Party'

Professor Moriarty

Leroy42 wrote: »

At least the likes of Chukka had the balls to walk away from Labour. Surely the likes of Starmer, Thornberry etc need to actively quit if Corbyn is unwilling to move until the next conference.

How can they continue to support their party when the party is taking the wrong choice over the most series political issue of their lives?

Give it time. It's only the day after the results. After the Locals and these disastrous European elections, they now have the ammunition to challenge Corbyn's dithering and give that ultimatum.

10000maniacs

Andrew Bridgen on BBC News now. He's still spouting on about going to GATT24 after a crash-out.
Of course the BBC interviewer didn't challenge him on it.
Why would the EU even consider an interim agreement without a withdrawal agreement & backstop?
And why would the WTO membership not complain about it and demand substantial changes?
Also, the only way the EU would agree to GATT24 would be if the UK were entering the EU and were negotiating and working towards agreeing to a free-trade area and a customs union.

An Claidheamh

10000maniacs wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen on BBC News now. He's still spouting on about going to GATT24 after a crash-out.
Of course the BBC interviewer didn't challenge him on it.
Why would the EU even consider an interim agreement without a withdrawal agreement & backstop?
And why would the WTO membership not complain about it and demand substantial changes?
Also, the only way the EU would agree to GATT24 would be if the UK were entering the EU and were negotiating and working towards agreeing to a free-trade area and a customs union.

Always reminds me of a pub landlord, or a parody of one.

British media are a joke, only good at sensationalising issues in other countries and promoting themselves as superior.

The Irish media have a history of deferring to them.

Hopefully Brexit ends this.

They're as clueless on Brexit as they were on the North, and as biased as they were on the North and also Scottish independence.

Shelga

Any chance whatsoever of another coup against Corbyn, but a successful one this time, and installing Keir Starmer as leader?

Professor Moriarty

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Always reminds me of a pub landlord, or a parody of one.

British media are a joke, only good at sensationalising issues in other countries and promoting themselves as superior.

The Irish media have a history of deferring to them.

Hopefully Brexit ends this.

They're as clueless on Brexit as they were on the North, and as biased as they were on the North and also Scottish independence.

What is becoming increasingly clear is the re-emergence of latent English nationalism. England leaving the EU is now more important for Brexiteers than maintaining UK unity.

Laois_Man

bilston wrote: »

My maths could be wrong here as this is a quick calculation ..

However...
Lib Dem + Green + Change UK = 37%
Brexit Party + UKIP = 36.8%

Labour got 14.4% and the Tories 8.8%. The only fair way of doing the sums is to split those votes 50/50 (although in reality I suspect Labour would be weighted more towards Remain and the Tories towards Leave).

But even then it gives the Remain vote a narrow lead over Leave by something like 0.2%. (again given the likely nature of Labour and Tory voters it is probably a bigger lead for Remain).

Now that is far too close for my liking...however what it absolutely isn't is a mandate for a No Deal Brexit in any way shape or form. It's not even a mandate for Brexit.

Edit - also we haven't seen the NI results yet which will obviously make minimal difference but will presumably give more votes to Remain supporting parties than Leave.

I think also, you have to factor in the fact that those vehemently opposed to EU membership are possibly by-and-large more motivated to go out and vote in the EU elections, for the likes of Brexit Party. This might not be as much of a factor in a General Election or a second referendum

Also, it was interesting to see Farrage last night adding to his history of goal post moving when it was pointed out to him that Remain parties have outvoted Leave parties. His response was "That only works if you are counting Labour as a remain party which is nonsense" - this from the man who has spent the last 3 years complaining that Labour and the Tory's are both predominantly remain party's!

CelticRambler

Bambi wrote: »

Macron has been walloped in France

:eek: Has he??? When did that happen, and why is the French press not reporting it?

The view here is that he's come in ahead of expectations, closing the gap on MLP at the last minute, and watching the Gilet Jaunes lose their deposit. :pac:

A Dub in Glasgo

Scotland result now declared (one of the council areas does not count on Sundays). The Labour vote collapsed

SNP - 3
Lib Dems - 1
Tory - 1
Brexit Party - 1

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132959231018250240

https://twitter.com/spink_jonathan/status/1132815932483657729

farmchoice

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Always reminds me of a pub landlord, or a parody of one.

British media are a joke, only good at sensationalising issues in other countries and promoting themselves as superior.

The Irish media have a history of deferring to them.

Hopefully Brexit ends this.

They're as clueless on Brexit as they were on the North, and as biased as they were on the North and also Scottish independence.

there really is a serious problem within the British media. and its not just the tabloid crowd, in fairness you get what you expect from them. there is a serious lack of intellect and as mentioned above an incredibly inflated sense of their own ability.
also at every level their is a terrible crassness about them.

on numerous occasions i have sceen serious television journalists stop what they are saying to bellow ridiculous questions at any politician who have come within 100 yards of them.

last week one sky reporter (his name escapes me, not Bolton) was standing in the lobby of the houses of parliament reporting on the meeting of the 22 committee, mid interview with some MP he spots Graham Brady waking across the lobby, he stops mid question and starts roaring at Brady, obviously Brady was not going to start roaring back, why bother with that rubbish?

Headshot

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance whatsoever of another coup against Corbyn, but a successful one this time, and installing Keir Starmer as leader?

A good pick

I would suspect it would probably beetween Keir and Tom Watson in the end

Christy42

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Scotland result now declared (one of the council areas does not count on Sundays). The Labour vote collapsed

SNP - 3
Lib Dems - 1
Tory - 1
Brexit Party - 1

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132959231018250240

https://twitter.com/spink_jonathan/status/1132815932483657729

He is not wrong, they are a front. I have no idea why people are being so PC describing them.

IAmTheReign

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Because they know the pro EU candidate could resign tomorrow and be replaced by an anti EU MEP

They could but they can't just give the seat to whoever they want, they still have to follow the order on the list. Regardless I can't see any of the pro EU MEPs resigning anytime soon.

My point is that if you have a candidate who's both serving the voters interests at the EU and is part of the party they support it's unrealistic to think they'll vote for a different party.

boggerman1

Tory on lbc now.no deal,no deal all the way but when asked what happens next its all waffle and bluster.just crash out and be done with it.this has to stop now for everyone's sanity

Joe_ Public

Headshot wrote: »

A good pick

I would suspect it would probably beetween Keir and Tom Watson in the end

You think 2 blairites would be the front runners to be next labour leader? I wouldn't be convinced about that, momentum would have too much say to make that a viable scenario. I dont think watson has that much chance to be honest. Corbyns strategy is all about the GE and if and when they manage to achieve it then he'll be judged on the outcome of that. I wouldn't be writing him off just yet quite frankly.

Sorry: I should say "so-called blairite" when referring to the likes of starmer and watson. I dont particularly like the term myself and i have great time for both of them as politicians.