Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BobbyBobberson

Have not posted on here in ages and I missed the "debate" tonight.

Boris will be made PM, head to Brussels, hit a wall, they will call his bluff and he will come back with his tail between his legs. Cue ERG members "Boris was never fully Brexit" and "Sure he wrote two columns about which side to back in the ref" and we revisit all this again in six months time.

Boris is so flip flop that is really says something about the UK that he is about to made PM. The guy has already changed his mind on his tax policy he suggested last week. One wet week into his PM bid and he has backed down on his main domestic policy. Unreal

Rjd2

Dante7 wrote: »

I wonder is Stewart purposely scuppering his own campaign? As has been mentioned, he is not really fighting to win this campaign but rather the next one. He went from 28/1 a couple of weeks ago to second favourite at 7/1 today. He went back out to 10/1 after the debate. I don't think he really wants this poisened chalice.

A Tory not wanting to be PM? :P

I think he struggled with the format which he has admitted. His body language at times was poor. It should not matter as its superficial bollocks, but this stuff is absolutely basic and has always been. I understand that some of the drivel spouted would be infuriating, but still needs to learn how to play the game better.

I expect Boris will fail when he becomes PM....the issue for Stewart is I don't see the demographics of the members changing drastically over the year year or two. Heck it's more likely some younger more hardcore leaver like Raab will have a go next as he always believed in brexit blah blah.

20silkcut

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's incredible to think it's three years as you say. I think Macron will huff and puff but a conditional extension will be granted. Essentially, there are only two options - an extension or crash out. There isn't time to renegotiate a deal that the EU won't renegoitiate anyway. May's deal is dead and revoke won't happen. So Johnson will threaten and bluster until mid October and then he will capitulate having been advised of the realities of a No Deal Brexit.

The can will go rattling down the road and the Brexiteers will rant and rave. Regarding your 18-22 year olds, the demographic clock will keep on ticking. Younger and more pro EU voters will come on stream and elderly Brexiteers will continue to die off until a GE comes round. All hell will then break loose.

At some stage in the process the million plus people who took to the streets in March will surely appear again. If Boris is ramming through a no deal I wouldn’t be surprised to see scenes in central London similar to Hong Kong at the minute.
He’d have to kick the can down the road in such a scenario. I’d imagine it would be easier keep hard brexiteers off the streets by extending/revoke/ vaguely promising to renegotiate etc than keep growing numbers of remainers off the streets in a hard chaotic Brexit.

It is hard to Imagine mass protests on the street to force your country into a worse deal than it currently has. Although farage will try and whip up a storm . In the history of protesting it would be the weakest most underwhelming backward thinking cause in history. In my opinion Hard brexiteers are too scattered across the social strata and too scattered geographically across the country. Hardcore remainers are more likely in large clusters in the big urban centres, ideally located for mass street protesting. These are the people who will see the net loss of Brexit.
Surely human nature will kick in and the material loss to the people in a hard brexit will be realized.

First Up

KildareP wrote:

It's a victory for which you are utterly invincible. Who wouldn't want it!

That's not victory; its a series of lame excuses. Meanwhile the UK economy stagnates, businesses close, jobs are lost and investment goes elsewhere.

This isn't a game and nobody in the EU gives a tuppeny sh*t who the UK "blames".

The government's and PM's responsibility is to look after the interests of the citizens, not "win" a debate.

Brexit marks the start, not the end.

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

At some stage in the process the million plus people who took to the streets in March will surely appear again. If Boris is ramming through a no deal I wouldn’t be surprised to see scenes in central London similar to Hong Kong at the minute.
He’d have to kick the can down the road in such a scenario. I’d imagine it would be easier keep hard brexiteers off the streets by extending/revoke/ vaguely promising to renegotiate etc than keep growing numbers of remainers off the streets in a hard chaotic Brexit.

It is hard to Imagine mass protests on the street to force your country into a worse deal than it currently has. Although farage will try and whip up a storm . In the history of protesting it would be the weakest most underwhelming backward thinking cause in history. In my opinion Hard brexiteers are too scattered across the social strata and too scattered geographically across the country. Hardcore remainers are more likely in large clusters in the big urban centres, ideally located for mass street protesting. These are the people who will see the net loss of Brexit.
Surely human nature will kick in and the material loss to the people in a hard brexit will be realized.

I'm afraid a lot, perhaps even the majority of remain voters don't really appreciate just how integrated the UK economy is with the rest of the EU. They know it'll be worse, but don't realise just how much worse. I think very few Brits really understand the gravity of no deal. In Ireland we have a completely different perspective on how important the EU is for our material well being.

Cal4567

Interesting observation from one of David Cameron's old team in Newsnight last night. They expected, I guess back in 2016, that they would be able to pick up individual EU members one by one in a series of negotiations. As we know now, that didn't happen, and for the most part EU members have stayed united.

Tories have driven themselves clearly now into a cul-de-sac, the entrance to which is now also blocked from exiting.

Cal4567

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Have not posted on here in ages and I missed the "debate" tonight.

Boris will be made PM, head to Brussels, hit a wall, they will call his bluff and he will come back with his tail between his legs. Cue ERG members "Boris was never fully Brexit" and "Sure he wrote two columns about which side to back in the ref" and we revisit all this again in six months time.

Boris is so flip flop that is really says something about the UK that he is about to made PM. The guy has already changed his mind on his tax policy he suggested last week. One wet week into his PM bid and he has backed down on his main domestic policy. Unreal

Thought he was poor last night. Not sure what he wants, apart from of course becoming PM. Can't help but think though he is taking on a poisoned chalice.

No way is he going to be able to meet the demands and expectations of all those currrently backing him either. He's going to have to be very clever to avoid the knives being turned on him.

LuckyLloyd

Cal4567 wrote: »

Interesting observation from one of David Cameron's old team in Newsnight last night. They expected, I guess back in 2016, that they would be able to pick up individual EU members one by one in a series of negotiations. As we know now, that didn't happen, and for the most part EU members have stayed united.

Tories have driven themselves clearly now into a cul-de-sac, the entrance to which is now also blocked from exiting.

I think that observation has been made many times, and is accurate. The strategy, such as there was one, was to divide and conquer via bilateral diplomacy. That they thought they could do this is related to them fundamentally underestimating the competence and health of the EU. Which would go hand in hand with being Brexity to begin with.

It also would have required, imo, much greater capability within the British Civil Service. The indications are that they are not on the EU’s level in terms of negotiation and everything that surrounds it. Boris Johnson being at the helm won’t change that.

10000maniacs

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Pretty sure Johnson tripped himself up on the old GATT 24 banana skin there but think everybody was so bored by that stage they barely noticed.

I mentioned it although yes it was boring. I think Stewart was going to challenge him on it but was shouted down by everybody.

kuro68k

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Boris will be made PM, head to Brussels, hit a wall, they will call his bluff and he will come back with his tail between his legs.

I'm sure his plan is to go there, get nothing and then blame the EU for the failure. He's been blaming the EU for everything for decades, he is an expert at it.

Then he will crash out, blaming the EU the whole time.

ancapailldorcha

Matt Forde has just tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/mattforde/status/1141234374551265286?s=21

Not sure how I feel about it. On one hand, I would love to see the end of Brexit. On the other, he's right. Corbyn would do it for purely expedient reasons, not for the nation but to preserve his voting base. Corbyn's been woefully inadequate on Brexit. He was even at a talk in High Wycombe on the day of the last People's Vote. His Parliamentary MP's think he is untouchable so they are in line for now while the membership backs both him and a People's Vote.

Leroy42

The remain side, by and large, have suffered from not having a single person or party to unite behind.

The BRexiteers are largely talking the same language. It is telling that No Deal will be mentioned and then repeated by all the others across a few weeks until such time as it becomes the accepted position rather than some new previously not discussed point.

So having Corbyn, and of course the Labour Party, take on the mantle of Remain would be huge. Up till now, the Tories have been allowed to wallow in their own internal battle, saved from any sort of debate from Corbyn.

Would it be enough? The BRexit/Remain polls suggest that the numbers are still relatively tight but moving in the direction of remain.

What I do find really strange is that Labour are not out attacking each of the candidates for their complete lack of a plan. Even Stewart, with is "I'm just being honest" shtick has no real plan. Its Brexit, but exactly how remains a mystery.

Labour should be odd today saying we have had two TV debates 2 hours given over completely to the Tories to put forward their plans, and not one of them has a clue of what to do, how to do it, or even if it is possible.

lawred2

Cal4567 wrote: »

Interesting observation from one of David Cameron's old team in Newsnight last night. They expected, I guess back in 2016, that they would be able to pick up individual EU members one by one in a series of negotiations. As we know now, that didn't happen, and for the most part EU members have stayed united.

Tories have driven themselves clearly now into a cul-de-sac, the entrance to which is now also blocked from exiting.

Near half a century of membership and the British political system seems to have little idea of how the EU functions.

Leroy42

I think the system knows how it works, it the politicians, the media and the public who have no idea.

That is why there has been such aggression and dismissiveness directed at the system (civil servants etc) as they have tried to explain the realities of the situation when the likes of JRM, Johnson, Davis and so on have ignorantly tried to argue against it.

The politicians convinced themselves, and then the public, that the key to Brexit was simply that the UK was so important, so vital to everyone else, that the EU would simply cave. That it based on looking at the EU as a loose collection of individual states rather than a joined up cooperation.

Which is ironic given that the entire reason for Brexit was that the EU was no longer a loose collection of individual states rather a joined up cooperation.

KildareP

First Up wrote: »

That's not victory; its a series of lame excuses. Meanwhile the UK economy stagnates, businesses close, jobs are lost and investment goes elsewhere.

This isn't a game and nobody in the EU gives a tuppeny sh*t who the UK "blames".

The government's and PM's responsibility is to look after the interests of the citizens, not "win" a debate.

Brexit marks the start, not the end.

To you and me (and probably any sane person looking at the whole thing) - yes, absolutely, it's not a victory. But to the UK home market that's exactly what it will be, and this leadership race seems to be just a big competition that must be won, that HAS to be won, by the absolutely most wonderful Tory. So of course they're all vying for their chance.

All this bluster that they're coming out with isn't going to be "found out" to be the load of nonsense that is in their home turf in the UK, they're going to be the wonderful, democratic ideas that were quashed by the horrible, intrasigent EU who wanted to punish the UK, aided on by those bloody Irish who ought to know their place in the world.

We're being warmed up nicely as the scapegoat for when it (inevitably) goes horribly wrong and whether we care or not (we probably won't), we'll be the sole reason in the minds of Brexiteers as to why their lovely plans fell apart, not because it was an unrealistic attempt at action that had absolutely no plan, logic or reason to have ever been brought to the voting public in the first place.

First Up

KildareP wrote:

We're being warmed up nicely as the scapegoat for when it (inevitably) goes horribly wrong and whether we care or not (we probably won't), we'll be the sole reason in the minds of Brexiteers as to why their lovely plans fell apart, not because it was an unrealistic attempt at action that had absolutely no plan, logic or reason to have ever been brought to the voting public in the first place.

That's grand so. When the UK economy flatlines, sterling drops, prices rise, shops run out and the jobless numbers increase, UK voters can express their anger how exactly?

They can "blame" who they like but which EU politicians and officials will they be voting out of office?

Walter Bishop

54&56 wrote: »

The adult in me however acknowledges the economic and social pain a no deal Brexit would cause to so many including friends and family of mine here and in the UK so let's hope BoJo and co see sense once they are off the fence and faced with making some tough decisions.

Somehow this brings to mind the Russian proverb - 'wish in one hand, $hit in the other, see which fills up first'.

Christy42

First Up wrote: »

That's grand so. When the UK economy flatlines, sterling drops, prices rise, shops run out and the jobless numbers increase, UK voters can express their anger how exactly?

They can "blame" who they like but which EU politicians and officials will they be voting out of office?

They sit and suffer and grumble about foreigners while Johnson comes out popular as he is seen battling for them. This is about what is best for Boris. Others are unimportant aside from that they should keep a good view of Boris.

Let's be honest. Boris is no idiot. The man has likely limited his own exposure to the UK economy so he won't be hurt.

First Up

They deserve each other. Leave them to it.

Patser

Dante7 wrote: »

I wonder is Stewart purposely scuppering his own campaign? As has been mentioned, he is not really fighting to win this campaign but rather the next one. He went from 28/1 a couple of weeks ago to second favourite at 7/1 today. He went back out to 10/1 after the debate. I don't think he really wants this poisened chalice.

That's exactly what Stewart is doing, he's setting himself up as a sort of anti-ERG figurehead for the future. If Boris gets it now as expected, and he is backed by the ERG, then he'll be expected to deliver on all this ' True' Brexit, hard Brexit clap trap they've been spouting for last 3 years.

In the meantime Stewart becomes the voice of dissent within the Tory party, the alternative, snapping at Boris's plans exactly as the ERG continuously undermined May.

And when Boris's Brexit promises hit the wall of reality that the EU will face them with, and Boris is exposed as a bluffer- Stewart is now the face of the alternative.

It's exactly what Boris did to May

10000maniacs

Christy42 wrote: »

They sit and suffer and grumble about foreigners while Johnson comes out popular as he is seen battling for them. This is about what is best for Boris. Others are unimportant aside from that they should keep a good view of Boris.

Let's be honest. Boris is no idiot. The man has likely limited his own exposure to the UK economy so he won't be hurt.

I think Boris is a naïve bumbling blustering idiot masquerading as a highly intelligent man who happens to be masquerading as an idiot.
I mean telling the EU to go whistle for the £39 million. Easy cannon fodder for the likes of Barnier, who quipped "I’m not hearing any whistling, just the clock ticking". Its will be like a cat toying with a cornered mouse.
I am quite looking forward for the forthcoming Johnson car crash from a purely comedic point of view. Boy do we need a few chuckles at this stage.:)

Sam Russell

lawred2 wrote: »

Near half a century of membership and the British political system seems to have little idea of how the EU functions.

Well, to be fair, the EEC evolved to become the EU. It evolved from Mastericht, Nice and Lisburn to have a democratically elected EP with more and more powers. The Commission has gained a President elected by the EP, and the Council of Ministers has also gained a President, as has the EP.

So the EU is now a very different political body than it was 45 years ago.

Now, talking of UK journalists/politicians not understanding the EU, on Newsnight last night, one of the contributors said 'there will be a new EU Council in November'. Wrong - there will be a new EU Commission in November, but the Council will remain the same, maybe a new President, but otherwise the same. Of course, not corrected.

Ignorance of the EU is not in short supply at the BBC.

KildareP

First Up wrote: »

That's grand so. When the UK economy flatlines, sterling drops, prices rise, shops run out and the jobless numbers increase, UK voters can express their anger how exactly?

They can "blame" who they like but which EU politicians and officials will they be voting out of office?

I'm not arguing with you, I'm agreeing with you

My original post was in response to a question asking why anyone would want to go for the Tory leadership. It's for those reasons I've outlined in the last two posts.

Their leadership have managed to position themselves as virtually untouchable - every single bad thing that happens is now entirely the EU's (and Ireland's) fault. Dragging up contender's history is Remainer bias. EU not re-opening the withdrawal agreement is being intrasigent. Not backing down on the backstop is bullying. Not agreeing a FTA is EU punishment for Britain leaving. Big bad EU bullying the brave PM.

The UK is so far removed from reality but the soon-to-be-real harsh realities of Brexit are not going to suddenly bring them back down to earth and have all the bluster called out for what it is. It's just going to turn EU-hatred up even higher.

We all know Johnson isn't going to get any of the things he's blustering about - the EU have said many times as much.
But believe me, he'll be over to Brussels and will blame them for not being there, then blame them for not re-opening the agreement, then blame them for having to seek an extension (and blame them if they decline), or if he decides to go No Deal will blame them for the economic crash that quickly ensues.

Again - who wouldn't want such a position of power with virtual immunity?

Russman

Given the seemingly inevitable car crash that will ensue with a no-deal, surely the PM that brings this about will be toast, no ?
I wonder are the other contenders somewhat taking a "dive" to let Boris have it, knowing he won't last too long and essentially getting him out of the way.

First Up

Russman wrote:

Given the seemingly inevitable car crash that will ensue with a no-deal, surely the PM that brings this about will be toast, no ? I wonder are the other contenders somewhat taking a "dive" to let Boris have it, knowing he won't last too long and essentially getting him out of the way.

Very likely.

Timberrrrrrrr

Raab backs Boris Johnson for Tory leadership

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/eDDTQ


Saying "he's the only man to deliver Brexit on time"

Pretty big boost for BoJo.

fash

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It also would have required, imo, much greater capability within the British Civil Service. The indications are that they are not on the EU’s level in terms of negotiation and everything that surrounds it. Boris Johnson being at the helm won’t change that.

Well part of the problem was ignoring what the competent people (i.e. in the civil service) were saying.

54and56

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Raab backs Boris Johnson for Tory leadership

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/eDDTQ


Saying "he's the only man to deliver Brexit on time"

Pretty big boost for BoJo.

Not really, Raabs votes transferring to BoJo had been factored in by pretty much everyone.

Leroy42

fash wrote: »

Well part of the problem was ignoring what the competent people (i.e. in the civil service) were saying.

Yes, this in a nutshell. The civil service has been banging the drum about Brexit being a bad idea from the start. They have not only been ignored by the likes of JRM has called them as actively working against the state!

When they put out forecasts, as the chancellor has done, they are rubbished as biased and false.

As to their dealings with the EU, I personally think the deal that TM achieved was about as good as they could have hoped for (and it was more than I thought they should give). So from that POV I think the civil service did quite a good job.

The fly in the ointment was people like Raab who, according to certain reports, was totally out of his depth and TM who couldn't decide what she wanted and when she got it told everyone she hated it.

Laois_Man

The Brexit Party have arrived in Brussels. These are the people who will be asking the EU to be more generous to them

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1141275808310419456

It wouldn't be out of place in a "Carry-on..." movie!