Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache

Rutte has been one of the most vocal and consistent European leaders when it comes to this.

Hurrache

Andrew Bridgen, with an awful puss on him, up against Neale Richmond on Sky News. Still insisting the border is a stick to beat the English with by the EU. The only reason I can guess for why Bridgen is still rolled out is because he's shown on numerous occasions to be clueless on all things Brexit and producers use him to show the futility of it all. It's put to him when he claims the WA is slanted in favour of the EU that the backstop was his governments idea he chooses to ignore it, instead claiming that the EU are now actually looking at the alternative arrangements. He also doesn't want to know anything about the YouGov poll.

The ignorant git doesn't even listen to what Richmond says, instead looking around and sitting like a petulant child when reality is thrown at him by Richmond, who's pretty well briefed in his role.

Jamiekelly

Hurrache wrote: »

Andrew Bridgen, with an awful puss on him, up against Neale Richmond on Sky News. Still insisting the border is a stick to beat the English with by the EU. The only reason I can guess for why Bridgen is still rolled out is because he's shown on numerous occasions to be clueless on all things Brexit and producers use him to show the futility of it all. It's put to him when he claims the WA is slanted in favour of the EU that the backstop was his governments idea he chooses to ignore it, instead claiming that the EU are now actually looking at the alternative arrangements. He also doesn't want to know anything about the YouGov poll.

The ignorant git doesn't even listen to what Richmond says, instead looking around and sitting like a petulant child when reality is thrown at him by Richmond, who's pretty well briefed in his role.

You think that's bad? I just had a twitter row with a Corbyn supporter over his stance on the EU and when I pressed him on his personal political beliefs he revealed that he genuinely believes in the implementation of a social credit system. As in China style big brother government that puts the UK's current snoopers charter to shame. As well as government nationalising all companies that have a value of over 1 billion pounds. The worst part is he claims to be a true centrist who no longer believes in left and right. Andrew Bridgen may be a lying petulant child, but it appears the grassroots supporters of Corbyn also have a far more sinister undertone to their beliefs.

Laois_Man

Hurrache wrote: »

It's put to him when he claims the WA is slanted in favour of the EU that the backstop was his governments idea

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the backstop was the EU/Ireland's idea - but it was in the form of a border down the Irish sea. A UK wide backstop (to appease the DUP) was the UK's idea.

Leroy42

I think you are wrong. The backstop was the idea to get around the problem created by TM red lines. How to keep the border open in Ireland when they wanted to get rid of everything else.

Without NI, there wouldn't really be a problem. The UK decided to leave, so leave and put up the borders. NI, and specifically the GFA, caused a huge problem as the UK had an international agreement which stated they couldn't simply do that.

As such, the EU agreed to treat NI as a special case. It is actually quite a coup for the UK to get them to agree as it, technically, goes against the 4 pillars. But the EU were willing to do so A) because NI is such a small part of the EU, it helped with the peace process and C) it should have made the rest easier.

Of course it ended up but even more divisive as the ERG and others simply couldn't accept that their vision of Brexit was not going to be the pure through form they wanted.

The UK wide backstop was again the UK's idea to try to get over the stigma of the NI backstop and try to help TM get the deal over the line. Recall that the DUP main gripe with the backstop was not the backstop itself, it was that they were being treated differently. The ERG then grabbed that and claimed they couldn't possibly stand by whilst their DUP colleagues were against it. Of course when the UK side backstop was announced, getting around all the previous complaints, and whole new raft of complaints came in and the DUP were still not happy.

mayordenis

Jamiekelly wrote: »

but it appears the grassroots supporters of Corbyn also have a far more sinister undertone to their beliefs.

Bit of a leap from arguing with some dickhead on twitter to a sweeping generalisation about a fairly large swathe of the UK population. It's also very weird to press someone on their political ideology and for them to immediately launch into dystopian social scoring system. I don't support labour (but would choose them over the conservatives), I also don't think labour or Corbyn would have any intention to implement any such system.

steddyeddy

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Meanwhile Karen Bradley can't organise a píss up for Irish people with a free bar.

Lots of Conservative talk about giving Stornmount a say. Unless they specifically rule out the Petition Of Concern then its effectively giving the DUP + UUP a veto.



The DUP are Kingmakers, and all they've got to show for it is a few quid and lip service. The ERG are only using the backstop as a red herring. Without it there'd be other "concerns".



They still have the option of pulling the plug on the govt. They'll still get re-elected so no risk.

The big payoff is that a GE could mean no Brexit or a Customs Union, either meet their demand for no divergence from the UK , apart from the existing divergences on major socioeconomics.

If it's a hung parliament they are back in the driving seat.


If Labour win , well have the Tories actually done for them so far ?
Besides Corbyn is too busy with the foot shooting to win.

She didn't even know there was a unionist-nationalist divide in Northern Ireland. She couldn't be bothered to look that up before starting her job as secretary of state. Is incompetence a virtue in the Tory party?

fash

Leroy42 wrote: »

Of course it ended up but even more divisive as the ERG and others simply couldn't accept that their vision of Brexit was not going to be the pure through form they wanted.

I am not convinced that any agreement with the EU which involved any obligations on the UK would be acceptable to the ERG - it is never satisfied grievance politics that motivates them.

Leroy42

fash wrote: »

I am not convinced that any agreement with the EU which involved any obligations on the UK would be acceptable to the ERG - it is never satisfied grievance politics that motivates them.

100% agree and it is why I think that any deal is doomed to failure regardless. They keep moving the goalposts and will seemingly accept only that the UK take over full and total control of the EU.

Harry Palmr

Two Stewart fans spoiled their votes.

Johnson
Gove
Hunt go forward

It's all very predictable. Though a boost for Gove.

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

Hurrache

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

No, it'll eventually go to a postal vote for Tory party members when there's only 2 left so it'll be July 22nd.

Sparko

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

No - they will narrow it to Johnson and one of either Gove or Hunt today, then there will be a month of campaigning before all the Conservative members vote for one of them.

robinph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

Only if Hunt and Gove drop out, although it would still take until tomorrow before May went to visit the Queen.

robinph

robinph wrote: »

Only if Hunt and Gove drop out, although it would still take until tomorrow before May went to visit the Queen.

And the Queen is currently at Ascot and would be mighty annoyed with a new PM interrupting her watching the horse racing.

Kk. Thanks all.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Haven't been following any of this. Could Boris be the new PM today?

Hurrache wrote: »

No, it'll eventually go to a postal vote for Tory party members when there's only 2 left so it'll be July 22nd.

Sparko wrote: »

No - they will narrow it to Johnson and one of either Gove or Hunt today, then there will be a month of campaigning before all the Conservative members vote for one of them.

We expect the final two candidates to be known at 18:15. Then it's a vote from the membership in July as Hurrache says to decide on which of the final two will become the new leader and therefore PM.

Water John

Quite obvious now, with Hunt and Gove so close, Johnson will manouvere the next round to pick who he wishes to run against. I would say he wants Hunt as he would fear Gove. It would also be bonus Karma for him to knock Gove out.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the backstop was the EU/Ireland's idea - but it was in the form of a border down the Irish sea. A UK wide backstop (to appease the DUP) was the UK's idea.

It follows that the backstop would have always been in the WA, it is just the opposition to it is due to the red lines of the Brexiteers. I think had the UK gone to the EU and said their aim was a EFTA style relationship with the EU, then the thought of the backstop would not have been as toxic as the future relationship would include ECJ jurisdiction and so having it included in the backstop would not have been as bad. But because they have their red lines, the terms of the backstop seems severe to them and thus they have their opposition to it.

So basically, there would have always been the backstop in the negotiations with the EU, it is the red lines of the UK that makes the backstop seem toxic to Brexiteers who wants all of their cake and want to eat it as well.


Here is a link to download the Mapping exercise on the NI border.

https://www.scribd.com/document/413958070/Brexit-Mapping-exercise-by-UK-government-on-Northern-Ireland

And just a quick tweet on our position on an extension,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1141685725538205698

So it seems like we are in a position where we are not opposed to more extensions, but we do have our hands tied a bit as it would be a collective decision of which we are only one vote.

20silkcut

Enzokk wrote: »

It follows that the backstop would have always been in the WA, it is just the opposition to it is due to the red lines of the Brexiteers. I think had the UK gone to the EU and said their aim was a EFTA style relationship with the EU, then the thought of the backstop would not have been as toxic as the future relationship would include ECJ jurisdiction and so having it included in the backstop would not have been as bad. But because they have their red lines, the terms of the backstop seems severe to them and thus they have their opposition to it.

So basically, there would have always been the backstop in the negotiations with the EU, it is the red lines of the UK that makes the backstop seem toxic to Brexiteers who wants all of their cake and want to eat it as well.


Here is a link to download the Mapping exercise on the NI border.

https://www.scribd.com/document/413958070/Brexit-Mapping-exercise-by-UK-government-on-Northern-Ireland

And just a quick tweet on our position on an extension,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1141685725538205698

So it seems like we are in a position where we are not opposed to more extensions, but we do have our hands tied a bit as it would be a collective decision of which we are only one vote.

For the EU to retain their credibility they will have to take that line.

54and56

Water John wrote: »

Quite obvious now, with Hunt and Gove so close, Johnson will manouvere the next round to pick who he wishes to run against. I would say he wants Hunt as he would fear Gove. It would also be bonus Karma for him to knock Gove out.

There is something beautifully symmetrical about Gove and BoJo, the joint leaders of the Leave campaign, battling it out to be the new PM. No matter who wins we will be entering the final straight as the much longed for control of Brexit by a true Brexiteer, and who could be more Brexit than the leaders of the Leave campaign? (other than Farage), finally happens and all excuses about how poorly TM the remainer negotiated with the EU will be laid bare.

If your kids don't listen to your advice based on decades of experience and knowledge sometimes it's best to just sit back and let them fall off that fence or eat too many sweets and get sick so they learn the hard way.

We are entering the "I wish I'd listened to the advice" stage I'm afraid which is going to end in tears for a lot of people.

Professor Moriarty

54&56 wrote: »

There is something beautifully symmetrical about Gove and BoJo, the joint leaders of the Leave campaign, battling it out to be the new PM. No matter who wins we will be entering the final straight as the much longed for control of Brexit by a true Brexiteer, and who could be more Brexit than the leaders of the Leave campaign? (other than Farage), finally happens and all excuses about how poorly TM the remainer negotiated with the EU will be laid bare.

If your kids don't listen to your advice based on decades of experience and knowledge sometimes it's best to just sit back and let them fall off that fence or eat too many sweets and get sick so they learn the hard way.

We are entering the "I wish I'd listened to the advice" stage I'm afraid which is going to end in tears for a lot of people.

To continue your analogy, it's like watching someone else let their kid fall off the fence but their kid lands on your kid.

Water John

I do hope they let it go to a Tory membership vote as they need to take ownership of the mess.

beggars_bush

Water John wrote: »

I do hope they let it go to a Tory membership vote as they need to take ownership of the mess.

About one third of Tory voters are remainers, it is believed

trellheim

"none of the above"

Stop moaning ffs

Leo’s quoted in this thread saying there will be no extension granted (unless election or referendum)

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700582908092416?s=21

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700590361354240?s=21

Joe_ Public

They are absolutely dead right not to offer another extension for no good reason. There is no other option. They told the UK not to waste the time after granting the last extension but that pretty much is what they are doing, the conservatives tearing themselves apart while Labour dithers and sits by doing nothing. The remain side need to get Labour into gear and get some momentum going. I think they can still win it if they get their act together.

Stop moaning ffs

That’s seriously impressive from Leo.
Basically telling Boris Eff you. And the whole shambolic lot of them, ‘sort your sh!t out, agree or we’re done.’

I’d expect a massive ramp up in the ‘Ireland is the problem’ narrative in the uk media tomorrow. With Leo being the target.

Harry Palmr

*unt has prevailed - just! 77 to 75 for Gove.

Joe_ Public

Johnson camp nearly screwed that up, far too close for comfort.