Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Only 3 votes added to Johnson. Must have loaned 8/10 votes to Hunt.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

Only 3 votes added to Johnson. Must have loaned 8/10 votes to Hunt.

Definitely....it was close but he manipulated the result

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

Only 3 votes added to Johnson. Must have loaned 8/10 votes to Hunt.

Thought they'd have lent 20 to make sure.

Water John

They'd nearly be stupid enough to do that, overcook it.

Love Beth Rigby.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

They'd nearly be stupid enough to do that, overcook it.

Love Beth Rigby.

Johnson seems to have had a good handle on the numbers and knew exactly what he was doing

bilston

Johnson seems to have served up a cold dish of revenge on Gove!

lawred2

Are these Tories not a minority government?

Why does their next leader get to be an automatic PM?

Seth Brundle

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Leo’s quoted in this thread saying there will be no extension granted (unless election or referendum)

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700582908092416?s=21

https://twitter.com/colmomongain/status/1141700590361354240?s=21

This is being reported in the Telegraph as "Ireland's prime minister warns of EU-27's 'enormous hostility' against Brexit extension"
It's the EU that are at fault obviously! :rolleyes:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/20/irelands-prime-minister-warns-eu-27-enormous-hostility-against/

Stop moaning ffs

Seth Brundle wrote: »

This is being reported in the Telegraph as "Ireland's prime minister warns of EU-27's 'enormous hostility' against Brexit extension"
It's the EU that are at fault obviously! :rolleyes:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/20/irelands-prime-minister-warns-eu-27-enormous-hostility-against/

Well of course they would.

But it isnt even stealthily put. He’s telling them eat what’s in front of you or eff off. And in barely diplomatic language.

ancapailldorcha

That's disheartening from Varadkar to say the least.

I think he and Simon Coveney have done a splendid job in ensuring that the EU acts with Irish interests in mind. Unfortunately, I am somewhat out of touch with Irish politics but I'm thankful that he's among the EU27 agitating for patience and care for the negotiations with the UK. However, if this disheartening news is anything to go by it would seem that the EU has reached its limit. Any chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If some EU member states have run out of patience with Britain then I can't see the Irish government being able to do all that much to help the UK gain another extension.

I think the EU still wants Brexit to be cancelled. However, it has prepared for Brexit much more scrupulously and thoroughly than the UK. It's even shown better form in acting for UK citizens than their own government. Meanwhile the Conservatives continue to bicker amongst themselves about how loves Brexit most aided and abetted by Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats are electorally irrelevant in Westminster while the SNP pursues its own separatist agenda.

There's not enough time for another general election even if the government were of a mind to call one. It'll be 22 July when Boris Johnson is crowned Tory leader. One can only hope he experiences some sort of Damascene moment while lounging in one of his Estates but that seems unlikely. I think the EU would grant an extension to facilitate a People's Vote. Maybe. But from Varadkar's tweet, this seems a stretch. My pool of optimism grows ever more shallow.

It was always going to be like this.

Joe_ Public

lawred2 wrote: »

Are these Tories not a minority government?

Why does their next leader get to be an automatic PM?

I would guess because its, theoretically anyway, they still have the numbers. The opposition would be entirely free to move a vote of no confidence in the new leader, though i'm not sure it would be a good idea the way things are panning out.

Infini

In fairness Ancapailldorcha the UK has been giving every chance to come up with a credible alternative or try and be realistic about thing's but the truth is your own government is essentially ignoring reality and intent on pursuing a self destructive policy that suits a minority of people and the conservative party before the common good of the British people. Varadakar might be just putting out a heads up to warn people that patience is running out because the conservatives look like they're going to put Boris in charge who's talked about leaving on Halloween no matter what so basically they've made their bed and now have to lie in it.

There's only so much that can be done but the truth is that if the British Government is intent on pursuing such a stupid and delusional policy no matter what warning's are given then they're the ones that will be held to account for the consequences of their folly, blaming the EU will do nothing for them they made the choice, they executed it, they suffer the consequences both Diplomatically, Economically and Politically and whoever comes back after such a disaster will basically be at the mercy of whoever is there and it will be essentially a policy of this is what's on offer its that or nothing because the UK will have nothing to offer.

I honestly think October will be the final nail in all this one way or another, either the UK abandons this entirely or it crashes out there won't be any hope of an extension unless there's an announcement of another referendum IMO because I think most want this done, the French want it done and I'd say other's want it done one way or another, they'd likely give Ireland all the support they can to offset the damage of this but like I said the UK pays the biggest price if they're foolish enough to execute this vainglorious BS project in the end.

Stop moaning ffs

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's disheartening from Varadkar to say the least.

I think he and Simon Coveney have done a splendid job in ensuring that the EU acts with Irish interests in mind. Unfortunately, I am somewhat out of touch with Irish politics but I'm thankful that he's among the EU27 agitating for patience and care for the negotiations with the UK. However, if this disheartening news is anything to go by it would seem that the EU has reached its limit. Any chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If some EU member states have run out of patience with Britain then I can't see the Irish government being able to do all that much to help the UK gain another extension.

I think the EU still wants Brexit to be cancelled. However, it has prepared for Brexit much more scrupulously and thoroughly than the UK. It's even shown better form in acting for UK citizens than their own government. Meanwhile the Conservatives continue to bicker amongst themselves about how loves Brexit most aided and abetted by Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats are electorally irrelevant in Westminster while the SNP pursues its own separatist agenda.

There's not enough time for another general election even if the government were of a mind to call one. It'll be 22 July when Boris Johnson is crowned Tory leader. One can only hope he experiences some sort of Damascene moment while lounging in one of his Estates but that seems unlikely. I think the EU would grant an extension to facilitate a People's Vote. Maybe. But from Varadkar's tweet, this seems a stretch. My pool of optimism grows ever more shallow.

It was always going to be like this.

I agree with your sentiment but if you think back, Macron is far past having lost patience. It’s really really bizarre Leo would use such language, and to be fair there are comments from him along with this for full context and he says he has
‘Endless patience’.

Eu and Ireland have been totally coordinated in messaging this while time.
I’d say this was carefully placed along with the Dutch PMs remarks today to let them know, renegotiating isn’t happening. It’s this deal or it’s no deal.
In order to shake them out of the stupor they’re in.

PeadarCo

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

I agree with your sentiment but if you think back, Macron is far past having lost patience. It’s really really bizarre Leo would use such language, and to be fair there are comments from him along with this for full context and he says he has ‘Endless patience’.

The issue is some people in the UK think the threat of a no deal can be used as a threat/bargaining tool against the EU ie the EU is afraid of a no deal. All Leo is doing is pointing out that a lot of EU countries are fed up and are not afraid of a no deal, Macron being a well known example.

It's a reminder to the tories that using the threat of a no deal by the UK won't work.

Stop moaning ffs

PeadarCo wrote: »

The issue is some people in the UK think the threat of a no deal can be used as a threat/bargaining tool against the EU ie the EU is afraid of a no deal. All Leo is doing is pointing out that a lot of EU countries are fed up and are not afraid of a no deal, Macron being a well known example.

It's a reminder to the tories that using the threat of a no deal by the UK won't work.

Are Boris etc even listening though? They haven’t been to date.

Joe_ Public

I think the message from Leo & co is as much for the remain side, and especially Labour, as the tory brexiteers. They're just about a lost cause at this stage. I listened to 4 of them sitting around the table on Sky after the leadership vote and they were talking about the backstop as if it could be solved tomorrow. Alternative arrangements, still as simple as that. Was reminded of an earlier tweet by Leo to the effect of the UK "talking to itself." Beth Rigby had a Johnson guy on earlier who when asked if 31 October was still feasible, replied that they might just need a very short extension while Boris renegotiated the WA. Forget about them. It's up to Labour and other remain parties to get their house in order, thats who leo and other european voices should be directing at.

Strazdas

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Well of course they would.

But it isnt even stealthily put. He’s telling them eat what’s in front of you or eff off. And in barely diplomatic language.

He also says that is not the one that is hostile to the UK. I'm not really sure what else he can say in response to the Tories. They are talking about renegotiating the WA or ditching the backstop, all within the next four months and this is virtually a red line for them.

ancapailldorcha

Infini wrote: »

In fairness Ancapailldorcha the UK has been giving every chance to come up with a credible alternative or try and be realistic about thing's but the truth is your own government is essentially ignoring reality and intent on pursuing a self destructive policy that suits a minority of people and the conservative party before the common good of the British people. Varadakar might be just putting out a heads up to warn people that patience is running out because the conservatives look like they're going to put Boris in charge who's talked about leaving on Halloween no matter what so basically they've made their bed and now have to lie in it.

There's only so much that can be done but the truth is that if the British Government is intent on pursuing such a stupid and delusional policy no matter what warning's are given then they're the ones that will be held to account for the consequences of their folly, blaming the EU will do nothing for them they made the choice, they executed it, they suffer the consequences both Diplomatically, Economically and Politically and whoever comes back after such a disaster will basically be at the mercy of whoever is there and it will be essentially a policy of this is what's on offer its that or nothing because the UK will have nothing to offer.

I honestly think October will be the final nail in all this one way or another, either the UK abandons this entirely or it crashes out there won't be any hope of an extension unless there's an announcement of another referendum IMO because I think most want this done, the French want it done and I'd say other's want it done one way or another, they'd likely give Ireland all the support they can to offset the damage of this but like I said the UK pays the biggest price if they're foolish enough to execute this vainglorious BS project in the end.

All correct though I resent somewhat the “your own government” comment. I voted Lib Dem and I'm not from the UK. I can always clear off back home to rural Ireland and, I don't know go back to rearing sheep or something. A lot of decent people here are about to be stripped of their rights to live and work in 27 EU countries and they had no say in it.

The problem is that a lot of people are going to take a hit though. The EU migrants in the UK and the Brits living in the EU though I've no sympathy with the pensioners sipping margaritas in Spanish villas moaning about foreigners. Then there's various UK and EU businesses who operate using just in time supply chains, Irish farmers who sell to the UK, various smaller UK and EU firms who might not be able to take the hit and so on... Brexiters love to remind us they're prepared to suffer but funnily enough, it's usually wealthy older people who make this claim in my experience..

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I agree with your sentiment but if you think back, Macron is far past having lost patience. It’s really really bizarre Leo would use such language, and to be fair there are comments from him along with this for full context and he says he has
‘Endless patience’.

Eu and Ireland have been totally coordinated in messaging this while time.
I’d say this was carefully placed along with the Dutch PMs remarks today to let them know, renegotiating isn’t happening. It’s this deal or it’s no deal.
In order to shake them out of the stupor they’re in.

Reversing Brexit puts the Irish border issue back in the box. Leo therefore has no choice but to try and facilitate the UK staying in for as long as possible.

People here seem to genuinely think that Johnson is some kind of mastermind who can renegotiate. It's terrifying, frankly. I come from a Unionist family and I'd family members try to flog me the same shtick when I visited home recently.

Berserker

PeadarCo wrote: »

The issue is some people in the UK think the threat of a no deal can be used as a threat/bargaining tool against the EU ie the EU is afraid of a no deal. All Leo is doing is pointing out that a lot of EU countries are fed up and are not afraid of a no deal, Macron being a well known example.

It's a reminder to the tories that using the threat of a no deal by the UK won't work.

Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.

54and56

Berserker wrote: »

Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.

When you say "open up talks" do you mean the WA and/or the PD?

PeadarCo

Berserker wrote:

Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.

Why would the EU open up talks? A no deal just increases the EUs leverage. The UK needs a deal sooner or later. Close to half the UKs trade is with the EU, over half when you factor in EU trade deals that comes with membership.

So grand the UK goes for a no deal and in a matter of weeks if not days it has to come back to the negotiating table. And guess what the preconditions for talks will be(what's in the withdrawal agreement). And not only that the UK now as 3rd party needs to satisfy all EU governments and in some cases regional assemblies in countries like Belgium.

Joe_ Public

I doubt its that simple that a new PM just continues on as things are, threatening no deal and the EU blink at 5 minutes to midnight as was supposed to happen last time. There will be a growing public momentum against it, public demonstrations, possible strike actions. The anger isn't exclusive to leave people who think democracy is being thwarted by not getting a hard brexit. People are just as entitled to anger at the prospect of a no deal for which there isn't and never has been any democratic mandate at all. This will all play out in public just as much as in parliament i think. Lot of twists and turns before we reach end game yet.

Infini

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

All correct though I resent somewhat the “your own government” comment. I voted Lib Dem and I'm not from the UK. I can always clear off back home to rural Ireland and, I don't know go back to rearing sheep or something. A lot of decent people here are about to be stripped of their rights to live and work in 27 EU countries and they had no say in it.

I don't mean your own government in a bad way of course but rather they're there meant to be responsible for all of those in the UK including yourself not just their own voters but what they're doing is beyond sheer incompetence and well into the realm of political malice. Being in government doesn't let one just ignore a significant amount of people just because it suits them and neither does it excuse them for pursuing blatantly incompetent policies that have absolutely no benefit and are of pure ideological stupidity. Alot of people are about to be stripped of their right's but the ONLY way this is going to change is basically if people start mass protests on a level that will force these delusional fools to listen.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Reversing Brexit puts the Irish border issue back in the box. Leo therefore has no choice but to try and facilitate the UK staying in for as long as possible.

Reversing Brexit does put the issue back in the box its just that while Ireland can have infinite patience the rest of Europe might not and that's the thing. If the UK crashes out the Border becomes a serious problem and only reunification will remove that issue as the UK and the DUP failed their voters by selling politically defective and idiotic policies.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

People here seem to genuinely think that Johnson is some kind of mastermind who can renegotiate. It's terrifying, frankly. I come from a Unionist family and I'd family members try to flog me the same shtick when I visited home recently.

Honestly it sounds like some of your family really has absolutely no idea how incompetent and utterly opportunistic Boris is, I mean what are they basing this on even? It's actually daft in a way how some either don't know or don't want to know the reality of things expecially in this day and age (though the Russian Troll Federation obscuring things with their "IRA" is one reason). Of course there's some out there who dont want to know or face reality either.....

Christy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

All correct though I resent somewhat the “your own government” comment. I voted Lib Dem and I'm not from the UK. I can always clear off back home to rural Ireland and, I don't know go back to rearing sheep or something. A lot of decent people here are about to be stripped of their rights to live and work in 27 EU countries and they had no say in it.

The problem is that a lot of people are going to take a hit though. The EU migrants in the UK and the Brits living in the EU though I've no sympathy with the pensioners sipping margaritas in Spanish villas moaning about foreigners. Then there's various UK and EU businesses who operate using just in time supply chains, Irish farmers who sell to the UK, various smaller UK and EU firms who might not be able to take the hit and so on... Brexiters love to remind us they're prepared to suffer but funnily enough, it's usually wealthy older people who make this claim in my experience..



Reversing Brexit puts the Irish border issue back in the box. Leo therefore has no choice but to try and facilitate the UK staying in for as long as possible.

People here seem to genuinely think that Johnson is some kind of mastermind who can renegotiate. It's terrifying, frankly. I come from a Unionist family and I'd family members try to flog me the same shtick when I visited home recently.

The UK will never revoke article 50 while they can keep extending and pretending.

At a certain point the UK's bluff needs to be called and they pick an option. At least then we can plan for it effectively (and they can get round to changing their minds).

Sam Russell

How many Tory MPs would it take to threaten to quit the party if BJ gets elected leader of the party, and therefore the next PM? And if they did, would it change the Party faithful vote? And what then if he did get elected - a GE would follow as night follows day.

How many - 10 - 20 - 30?

Just 10 would cost them their majority if you include the DUP. At least one third of the Tory MPs are remainers, probably more - that is more than 100 MPs.

Rory Stewart has already said he will not serve under BJ.

Tell me how

Sam Russell wrote: »

How many Tory MPs would it take to threaten to quit the party if BJ gets elected leader of the party, and therefore the next PM? And if they did, would it change the Party faithful vote? And what then if he did get elected - a GE would follow as night follows day.

How many - 10 - 20 - 30?

Just 10 would cost them their majority if you include the DUP. At least one third of the Tory MPs are remainers, probably more - that is more than 100 MPs.

Rory Stewart has already said he will not serve under BJ.

I think the die is cast in terms of the party faithful vote, they are more likely to flirt with Farage coming on board than to reverse the path which they are on at the moment should they lose members.

Think a GE is the most likely outcome before the end of the year with the EU allowing an extension for that purpose.

lawred2

Sam Russell wrote: »

How many Tory MPs would it take to threaten to quit the party if BJ gets elected leader of the party, and therefore the next PM? And if they did, would it change the Party faithful vote? And what then if he did get elected - a GE would follow as night follows day.

How many - 10 - 20 - 30?

Just 10 would cost them their majority if you include the DUP. At least one third of the Tory MPs are remainers, probably more - that is more than 100 MPs.

Rory Stewart has already said he will not serve under BJ.

Fairly sure Dominic Grieve has said the same

Professor Moriarty

When Stewart and Grieve say they won't serve under Johnson, they are talking about cabinet positions. They will remain Tory MPs.

Peregrinus

Berserker wrote: »

Guessing that your implying that he's terrified of a no deal Brexit? The consequences of a no deal Brexit on the island would be significant. Macron is speaking out because he's concerned about the knock on effect that it'll have on France. I'm not buying the fed up line at all. If Boris threatens to leave without a deal, I think the EU will open up talks.

The EU and its member states have been remarkably consistent, remarkably clear and remarkably unanimous in saying that the WA is not up for renogotiation. This is not a bluff, and there is no reason to think that it is. It's exactly the position that you would expect the EU to take, given its strategic position and its interests and objectives.

While Brexiters cling to the belief that the EU will "blink" and change its position on this, we can hardly not notice that Brexiters have, right from the get-go, been consistently wrong in their assessments of the positions the EU and its member states would take and the stances they would adopt. Every Brexiter prediction about this has been completely contradicted by how events have unfolded, every time, right from the start of this process. This is because the case for Brexit rests on a profound misunderstanding of what the EU is, how it works, and what the UK's place in and relationship with the EU is. And this is why the UK's negotiations with the EU have been such a train-wreck.

The current view in Brexitland seems to be that, while the EU declined to reopen the WA for Teresa May, they will do so if asked by a PM who has a penis. And, doubling down on this, they seem determined to send in a PM who not only has a penis, but actually is one.

Guys, guys! It's not about the genitals. The negotiations worked out the way they did not because of the personalities involved, but because of the positions and interests of the EU and the UK, and of the reality within which they must both operate. Changing the UK's PM does nothing at all to change anything that matters here.

If the UK wants the EU to reopen the WA, they will have to radically alter their position in a way that makes it attractive for the EU to reopen the WA. Brexiter thinking seems to be "if we send in a PM who actually will go out with no deal rather than merely saying he will, this is a change in position which will make it attractive for the EU to reopen the WA". But, no, it isn't. The EU looked at no-deal in the face a long time ago - well before the UK did, if we're honest - and decided (a) we can cope with this, and (b) we can cope with it better than the UK can. So the increased possiblity of no deal will not change the EU's negotiating stance, and this remains so regardless of how big a dick the UK sends out to threaten no-deal.

The UK would have to change its position in a much, much more radical way, e.g. by abandoning its red lines, in order to make it attractive to the EU to change its position and reopen the WA.

Laois_Man

Peter Foster - Europe editor of the Telegraph was a contributor on RTE Prime Time last tonight and reckons BJ's tactic will be to table a motion such that the HoC passes the WA but with an end-date on the Backstop. He could be right up to that point - but even that passing is not a given. But he then goes on to speculate that other member states will put pressure on Leo to accept a 5-7 year time-limit to avoid chaos in 5-7 weeks.;)

They also speculated that BJ will know his stated intentions will result in an extremely short stint as PM and he will completely change course once he secures the job and head for a second referendum.