Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Berserker

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If the nationalist community is angry, their anger will be directed at the British government. Funny you think otherwise.

Angry at the British government because the EU decided to build a hard border on the island? It's the EU building the wall not the British government.

BonnieSituation

Berserker wrote: »

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.



So the EU will implement a hard border to protect it's borders. I just hope that republicans will direct their angst at the EU and not the UK when the border appears.

Given that the border exists in the first place solely because of British imperialism i see republicans and Nationalists (this one included) being pretty irate anyway towards the UK. The EU (of which Ireland is a constituent member) won't register at all to being a cause of any angst.

Professor Moriarty

Berserker wrote: »

Angry at the British government because the EU decided to build a hard border on the island? It's the EU building the wall not the British government.

Nah. Nationalists in the North will rightly feel betrayed by the British government and the Unionist community. I'm amazed you don't understand that.

Dytalus

Berserker wrote: »

Angry at the British government because the EU decided to build a hard border on the island? It's the EU building the wall not the British government.

The British government (will have) left the EU, forcing the situation on all parties. Ireland, the UK, and the EU all must comply with WTO rules absent any agreement and the UK voted for Brexit in spite of this and without due consideration to the problems that would be encountered.

I cannot see anyone more deserving of the blame.

54and56

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Macron thinks No Deal is OK not because it will mean Brexit is over, but because he thinks the UK are currently living in a fantasy land and as long as they keep getting extensions they will stay there.

No Deal will be a short, sharp shock - an international ice-bucket challenge, and when they return to ask the EU for a deal, they will have woken up in the real world and realized that they are in a very bad place.

And realizing that, they will be in an extremely weak negotiating position, which will suit the EU (and Macron) very well.

Plus with Merkel retiring soon and troubles at home it absolutely suits Macron to be projecting himself as the tough guy in Europe who finally decides the UK have had enough time to stare at their navels and it's time to move on from Brexit which has hijacked the EU agenda for the last 3 years.

First Up

Berserker wrote:

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.

A very short game with a very familiar result. I hope for the UK's sake that behind the bluster and nonsense he has thought about what happens next.

L1011

Berserker wrote: »

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.

Boris currently tells us he truly believes in it. We haven't got a clue if he actually does.

lawred2

Berserker wrote: »

Angry at the British government because the EU decided to build a hard border on the island? It's the EU building the wall not the British government.

EU decided to do nothing. It's the UK leaving the trading bloc.

Seriously it doesn't still need saying does it? :rolleyes:

robinph

Berserker wrote: »

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.

Johnson might think he's started a new game, everyone else in the EU, and the rest of the world looking on, will still be playing the original game and looking on in despair.

trellheim

If the UK had no problem with an open border the backstop would have been signed ages ago , that it has not tells you all you need to know, and much about its credibility in any future state

Its also worth noting that the UK AGREED TO THE BACKSTOP. LETS REPEAT THAT - THE UK AGREED TO THE BACKSTOP. The Government of the United Kingdom worked it out with the European Commission and that is what they came up with. The Government had every chance to say no - and did not. (Boris Johnson resigned as foreign secretary just after it had been agreed, not before )


The missing part was/is Parliament ratification .

Peregrinus

Berserker wrote: »

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.

It really doesn't. The rules of the game don't depend on the identity of the players. A late substitution of May, T. by Johnson, B in the dying moments of the match is not going to make any difference.

PeadarCo

Berserker wrote:

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.

He doesn't believe in Brexit. It just suits his political needs. Remember this is a guy who apparently wrote two columns one for remain and one for leave. If the wind had being blowing a different direction on the day he made his mind up he would have went with remain.


And so what if he really believes in Brexit. It doesn't change anything. The economic consequences are still the same. Which means a no brexit just means that the UK comes back to the table with even less negotiating power. It's an empty threat. Just because Brexiters don't believe in the consequences of a no deal brexit doesn't mean they won't happen which the last few years show.

kuro68k

trellheim wrote: »

Its also worth noting that the UK AGREED TO THE BACKSTOP. LETS REPEAT THAT - THE UK AGREED TO THE BACKSTOP. The Government of the United Kingdom worked it out with the European Commission and that is what they came up with. The Government had every chance to say no - and did not. (Boris Johnson resigned as foreign secretary just after it had been agreed, not before )

And the fact that Boris now wants to go back on that agreement is exactly why the EU will never allow a time limit on the backstop. They have to old any future leader to it, no waiting it out or just walking away.

First Up

robinph wrote:

Johnson might think he's started a new game, everyone else in the EU, and the rest of the world looking on, will still be playing the original game and looking on in despair.

Not despair, just a recognition of reality. Brexiteers forget that the EU has been dealing for years with chaotic and dysfunctional countries on its borders. Nothing new here.

Sam Russell

Oh dear!

How can this guy keep his position?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/20/greenpeace-activists-target-philip-hammond-speech-in-climate-protest

Mark Field urged to quit as minister after grabbing climate protester
Video shows Foreign Office minister manhandling female demonstrator

The Conservatives have been plunged into controversy after a video showed a minister grab and manhandle a protester who disrupted the chancellor’s Mansion House speech.

Police began looking into the incident on Thursday night after footage showed Mark Field pushing the female Greenpeace activist against a pillar and grabbing her neck. There were calls for Field to lose his position as a Foreign Office minister. In a statement, he apologised to the woman and said he would refer himself to the Cabinet Office over the incident.

Mezcita

Sam Russell wrote: »

Oh dear!

How can this guy keep his position?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/20/greenpeace-activists-target-philip-hammond-speech-in-climate-protest

Mark Field urged to quit as minister after grabbing climate protester
Video shows Foreign Office minister manhandling female demonstrator

Just got suspended.

Professor Moriarty

Sam Russell wrote: »

Oh dear!

How can this guy keep his position?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/20/greenpeace-activists-target-philip-hammond-speech-in-climate-protest

Mark Field urged to quit as minister after grabbing climate protester
Video shows Foreign Office minister manhandling female demonstrator

Unsurprisingly, he's an elite Brexiteer. It was an assault. He pushed her violently, then he grabbed her neck and marched her out like like a Victorian schoolmaster. Not to play the internet hard man, but If it was my wife or daughter and I was there, I would have punched him.

Quin_Dub

Berserker wrote: »

A no deal Brexit will do a hell of a lot of damage to the rest of the EU and they want to avoid that at all costs. I've every confidence in Boris when it comes to these negotiations. I hope/expect that he'll take a Trumpian approach and we'll see a change in tact from the EU when that happens. The UK is not going to sail into economic nothingness, if it leaves on a no deal Brexit. People are forgetting that!

If by "Trumpian Approach" you mean scream , shout and use xenophobic/misogynist dog whistles along with claiming all kinds of wonderful never seen before victories whilst in reality delivering nine tenths of sod all.

Then yes, you are probably spot on.

Nody

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If by "Trumpian Approach" you mean scream , shout and use xenophobic/misogynist dog whistles along with claiming all kinds of wonderful never seen before victories whilst in reality delivering nine tenths of sod all.

Then yes, you are probably spot on.

To be fair to Trump I think Boris would deliver even less than Trump has managed of his campaign promises simply because between being ousted (delivering or failing to deliver a crash out Brexit as ironically both are likely to get him ousted but by different parts of the party/parliament) as a PM he's simply don't even have time to get a new budget through with the tax cuts etc. Hence his delivery rate is likely to below even the pathetic rate of Trump. But at least he can claim to have been PM and that's his only goal; similar enough to how May's only goal was to be PM for as long as possible and damn anyone and everyone to meet that target.

Professor Moriarty

Nody wrote: »

To be fair to Trump I think Boris would deliver even less than Trump has managed of his campaign promises simply because between being ousted (delivering or failing to deliver a crash out Brexit as ironically both are likely to get him ousted but by different parts of the party/parliament) as a PM he's simply don't even have time to get a new budget through with the tax cuts etc. Hence his delivery rate is likely to below even the pathetic rate of Trump. But at least he can claim to have been PM and that's his only goal; similar enough to how May's only goal was to be PM for as long as possible and damn anyone and everyone to meet that target.

I really do think it is very possible that history will judge May more favourably than Johnson in years to come.

robinph

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Unsurprisingly, he's an elite Brexiteer. It was an assault. He pushed her violently, then he grabbed her neck and marched her out like like a Victorian schoolmaster. Not to play the internet hard man, but If it was my wife or daughter and I was there, I would have punched him.

I think if it was your wife or daughter and you were their then you'd either have already been arrested on the way into the room if you were supporting them, or you'd have been jumping up to stop them before they had got as far as the MP.

Either that or you'd have been scurrying out the fire exit and hoping that nobody realised it was your wife or daughter that was making a scene and ruining your ride on the gravy train that got you a seat in the room in the first place.

Quin_Dub

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I really do think it is very possible that history will judge May more favourably than Johnson in years to come.

On a relative scale, you are probably correct. She will still rank amongst the worst ever.

May was/is hopelessly out of her depth in the attempts at negotiating Brexit but also just generally in terms of her overall leadership ability.

Johnson however knows exactly what he's doing - I don't buy the "bumbling public schoolboy" schtick for a minute.

In years to come people will look back at the last 3 PMs (assuming Johnson takes the mantle) and the 3 of them will without a shadow of doubt make any "All-Time Worst" top five list (Tory or otherwise), which really is a measure of how utterly awful the entire Brexit shambles is/was/shall be .

CelticRambler

Alan_P wrote: »

But how does that get through the HOC, given DUP resistance ?

funkey_monkey wrote: »

It is plain as day that GB MPs do not give a flying fig about NI ... the possibility of this getting through the HoC without the support of the DUP is feasible.

The traditional tribal politics in England has deteriorated to such an extent, and been replaced by pro- or anti-Brexit camps that the DUP are already pretty much irrelevant. Given that there are suggestions that the new PM will struggle to secure the support of the house for his own role, and an election is only being staved off through the fear of seats being lost, the confidence & supply arrangement counts for nothing any more.

So Boris's only renegotiation option is to revert to the NI-only backstop (as proposed in the Spring by the EU) and get a majority for the WA on the grounds that he has regnegotiated something, that it's better to leave now with a plan than look for another extension, that some Brexit is better than none, that "everyone" just wants to get on with it, etc, etc. Sacrificing the feelings of a few Paddies is a small price to pay.

Professor Moriarty

robinph wrote: »

I think if it was your wife or daughter and you were their then you'd either have already been arrested on the way into the room if you were supporting them, or you'd have been jumping up to stop them before they had got as far as the MP.

Either that or you'd have been scurrying out the fire exit and hoping that nobody realised it was your wife or daughter that was making a scene and ruining your ride on the gravy train that got you a seat in the room in the first place.

The chances of my ever becoming a Tory MP are rather remote.

L1011

Tories are now a man down following a recall petition in Wales; in an area that was Lib Dem for an age and where they have a sitting AM - could easily swap in the by election and starts to bring the numbers for getting a Queens Speech through in to severe doubt

farmchoice

CelticRambler wrote: »

The traditional tribal politics in England has deteriorated to such an extent, and been replaced by pro- or anti-Brexit camps that the DUP are already pretty much irrelevant. Given that there are suggestions that the new PM will struggle to secure the support of the house for his own role, and an election is only being staved off through the fear of seats being lost, the confidence & supply arrangement counts for nothing any more.

So Boris's only renegotiation option is to revert to the NI-only backstop (as proposed in the Spring by the EU) and get a majority for the WA on the grounds that he has regnegotiated something, that it's better to leave now with a plan than look for another extension, that some Brexit is better than none, that "everyone" just wants to get on with it, etc, etc. Sacrificing the feelings of a few Paddies is a small price to pay.

he will need labour votes to get this passed and he will need a good few as there are at least 10-20 tories who wont back this.
to get these votes i think he will have to agree to a second ref. this will actually suit him down to the ground because he can blame it on labour safe in the knowledge remain will win.
he is off the hook of brexit and it wasn't his fault it was a combination of the paddies and corybn, his support bases two biggest bogymen ( wrong paddies but they dont really know the difference).

bob mcbob

Berserker wrote: »

Debunked? TM was not a Brexiteer. Boris truly believes in it. New game starts when he goes to Brussels.



So the EU will implement a hard border to protect it's borders. I just hope that republicans will direct their angst at the EU and not the UK when the border appears.

Have you not been paying attention - Boris believes in nothing except it is his god given right to be PM. When he his PM, all the promises he has made mean NOTHING.

Why not check out all the promises he made as London mayor

ancapailldorcha

CelticRambler wrote: »

The traditional tribal politics in England has deteriorated to such an extent, and been replaced by pro- or anti-Brexit camps that the DUP are already pretty much irrelevant. Given that there are suggestions that the new PM will struggle to secure the support of the house for his own role, and an election is only being staved off through the fear of seats being lost, the confidence & supply arrangement counts for nothing any more.

Indeed. The Economist's Briefing section this week focuses on the new divide in British politics, namely the idea that people identify more with Leave and Remain than the party they vote for.

The article is here:

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/06/20/how-brexit-made-britain-a-country-of-remainers-and-leavers

It's an excellent piece with some fascinating tidbits:

Plenty of attention has been paid to how Brexit is driving apart the countries that make up the United Kingdom; Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed Remain and bitterly resent being dragged out of the eu by the English. Less consideration has been given to what divides the two tribes of Remainers and Leavers. Even among the moderate middle, Brexit has become the biggest ideological split. Half the population identifies with a religion. Just under two-thirds feels attachment to a political party. Yet 87% identify as a Remainer or Leaver—15 percentage points more than turned out to vote in the referendum......

Political bickering isn’t new. But it is bigger over Brexit than conventional politics. A study by NatCen Social Research found that 71% of young people living at home backed the same side as their parents in the referendum. By comparison, in the general election of 2015, 86% voted the same way. (The researchers included only those who voted for the two main parties, for a fair comparison with the binary referendum.) Brexit is dividing couples, too. In the election 89% backed the same side as their live-in partner; only 79% did in the referendum. A fifth of counsellors at Relate, which helps couples on the rocks, say Brexit has contributed to bust-ups.

Prejudice over Brexit is now as strong as that over race. And, perhaps surprisingly, it is the side that talks most about “openness” that is least open to mixing with the other lot. A YouGov/Times poll in January found that whereas only 9% of Leavers would mind if a close relative married a strong Remainer, 37% of Remainers would be bothered if their nearest and dearest hooked up with a Brexiteer. Remainers were also more likely to live in a bubble. Some 62% said all or most of their friends voted the same way, whereas only 51% of Leavers did.....

The referendum provoked an ugly spike of 50% or so in racial and religious hate crimes. But by the end of 2016 the number had returned to its trend level. The public is less hostile to immigration than before the vote, partly because inflows from the eu have drastically reduced.

Yet there is deep frustration with how things are going. The British Election Study found that 38% thought the referendum had been conducted unfairly. This is not an ordinary case of sore losers. Half as many thought the previous general election unfair. The gridlock in Parliament, where mps have been caught between loyalty to their constituents, their party and the instruction of the referendum, has undermined faith in politics. The Hansard Society, a research body, finds that 37% believe the system needs a “great deal” of change—ten points more than the previous record, in 2010, when mps were mired in an expenses scandal. Willingness to contact an mp has fallen; willingness to march or join a picket has risen. More than half agree that “Britain needs a strong leader who is willing to break the rules.”

The article then goes on to highlight how cities tended to be very much in favour of remaining in the EU while the Leave vote was more spread out:



Leave voters also seem to be more optimistic about the future than Remain voters:

https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/640-width/images/print-edition/20190622_FBC168_0.png

We've also seen some odd electoral behaviour such as the Tories starting to gnaw at support in Labour heartlands and vice vearsa. In addition, you have the success of the Brexit party and Lib Dems along with the Greens in the EU elections though there was a low turnout of 37%.

We are however still stuck with a decrepit two-party system. We need fairly serious change in the electoral system as it's become ever clearer that the status quo is unfit for purpose. At the very least should be voting reform followed up by a look at the House of Lords though the latter seems to be functioning fairly well as far as I can see.

robinph

Few more video clips of the protest last night just shown on the news and the MP was only very slightly more physical than the security people who had been trying to deal with the rest of them a bit beforehand. Lots of protestors ran into the room carrying portable loudspeaker units, in a very well organised manner.

The MP did bundle her out in an unprofessional manner, but he was dealing with one that had got away from the rest of the security so not sure its really quite as bad as the reports first thing this morning were suggesting.

Sam Russell

robinph wrote: »

Few more video clips of the protest last night just shown on the news and the MP was only very slightly more physical than the security people who had been trying to deal with the rest of them a bit beforehand. Lots of protestors ran into the room carrying portable loudspeaker units, in a very well organised manner.

The MP did bundle her out in an unprofessional manner, but he was dealing with one that had got away from the rest of the security so not sure its really quite as bad as the reports first thing this morning were suggesting.

Why was he the one to jump out of his seat and grab her? Those sitting near him took no action. Was he on security duty? Did he consider himself to be the appropriate person to physically assault her? Or is he just a brute?

It is truly shocking that he took such action. He should resign or be sacked.