Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

boggerman1 wrote: »

Tory on lbc now.no deal,no deal all the way but when asked what happens next its all waffle and bluster.just crash out and be done with it.this has to stop now for everyone's sanity

If they crash out, we’ll be hearing nothing but Brexit and desperate attempts at trade deals for the next 3-5 years.

In fact, no matter what happens, I suspect Brexit will remain at the top of the political news agenda for several more years.

murphaph

Hard to feel an ounce of sympathy for the remain cause with such a low turnout given the fact it's a defacto referendum on Brexit. Lots of remainers stayed at home IMO. The message from remainers needed to be much more forceful. They needed to vote LibDem or Green in much greater numbers to send a clearer message to the EU that there is something worth saving or fighting for.

Hurrache

An Claidheamh wrote: »

British media are a joke, only good at sensationalising issues in other countries and promoting themselves as superior.

The Irish media have a history of deferring to them.

Not at all, they're pretty critical of them.

Joe_ Public

Given that they had no help from the two main parties i think a "score draw" is a very good result for the remain cause. In sporting parlance, if you'd offered them that before the contest i think most would have snapped your hand off for it. At the very least it should soften the brexit partys cough a bit, if this was a brexit referendum as they were anxious to claim, then the obvious result is that there is no clear mandate in their favour. Nothing has really changed: it still comes down to parliament finding a way to stop no deal if it comes down to it and i believe they will.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

In fact, no matter what happens, I suspect Brexit will remain at the top of the political news agenda for several more years.

Brexit will be news until they actually leave, and then the Rejoin campaign will start.


Everything in the UK will be seen through the lens of Brexit for 20 or 30 years.

branie2

branie2 wrote: »

I wonder if we'll have a pro-Europe PM.

Sorry, I mean a remain PM

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Scotland result now declared (one of the council areas does not count on Sundays). The Labour vote collapsed

SNP - 3
Lib Dems - 1
Tory - 1
Brexit Party - 1

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1132959231018250240

https://twitter.com/spink_jonathan/status/1132815932483657729

Great to see nationalism on the march.

eagle eye

The most important thing here is that Nigel Farage has to be taken very seriously. What might happen if a GE is called over there in the next two months, although that seems unlikely with the current state of the two main parties in government.

Professor Moriarty

eagle eye wrote: »

The most important thing here is that Nigel Farage has to be taken very seriously. What might happen if a GE is called over there in the next two months, although that seems unlikely with the current state of the two main parties in government.

A GE might be a very different kettle of fish. I can't wait to see Nigel's manifesto. I imagine there will be a lot of unicorns and rainbows.

Christy42

eagle eye wrote: »

The most important thing here is that Nigel Farage has to be taken very seriously. What might happen if a GE is called over there in the next two months, although that seems unlikely with the current state of the two main parties in government.

He has had success in Europeans and UKIP still failed to make serious inroads in a general election.

ancapailldorcha

eagle eye wrote: »

The most important thing here is that Nigel Farage has to be taken very seriously. What might happen if a GE is called over there in the next two months, although that seems unlikely with the current state of the two main parties in government.

UKIP won no MP's last election and only one in 2015. The people who voted for the Brexit party on 23 May will go back to voting Tory/Labour in a general election. FPTP means the Brexit party won't win more than a few seats at most.

LuckyLloyd

Nigel Farage would do terribly in a general election. He's failed to get a seat before. Single issue candidates don't get seats in a FPTP system. The Brexit "Party" is not a party at all. It has no policies, constitution, rules, structures. They'd rip the head off each other sorting all that out in a short timeline ahead of a General Election.

devnull

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A GE might be a very different kettle of fish. I can't wait to see Nigel's manifesto. I imagine there will be a lot of unicorns and rainbows.

He isn't going to have one, over the last 24 hours he says that they are not needed.

My Brexit supporting relatives have bought into the local Brexit Party line that they will be common sense policies based on democracy and taking back control of our laws, borders and untangling European Law and that they say it how it is.

There's no need for a Manifesto as they are just liars charters, said the leaflet.

Joe_ Public

Plus old nige has no choice in a lengthy GE campaign but to fess up to all his less than wholesome ideas about immigration and other far right wish list items. Wittering on incessantly about democracy and crying foul every time someone on an interview panel refers to his party as extremists won't wash for long when they are required to put some flesh on some actual real policies they might hold.

eagle eye

Professor Moriarty wrote:

A GE might be a very different kettle of fish. I can't wait to see Nigel's manifesto. I imagine there will be a lot of unicorns and rainbows.

So you are not going to take him seriously, I think that's a big mistake.

Christy42 wrote:

He has had success in Europeans and UKIP still failed to make serious inroads in a general election.

ancapailldorcha wrote:

UKIP won no MP's last election and only one in 2015. The people who voted for the Brexit party on 23 May will go back to voting Tory/Labour in a general election. FPTP means the Brexit party won't win more than a few seats at most.

The Tories and Labour have done an awful job though. This is as bad as it's ever been for them.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A GE might be a very different kettle of fish. I can't wait to see Nigel's manifesto. I imagine there will be a lot of unicorns and rainbows.

Seen a clip of him this morning where he has already started to attempt to communicate something that's a bit broader than Brexit. Having said that. it was a general whoo-haa about cleaning up the internal UK political system with the only real specifics being offered was about abolishing the house of lords!

ancapailldorcha

eagle eye wrote: »

So you are not going to take him seriously, I think that's a big mistake.

Well, Cameron did that in a very abject way and look how things turned out. Farage has passed his peak. There are too many people who have seen the scandals for him to make serious inroads into domestic British politics. Then there's the fact that he failed to get elected seven times in Kent of all places.

eagle eye wrote: »

The Tories and Labour have done an awful job though. This is as bad as it's ever been for them.

Of course they have but they are protected by the voting system, FPTP. In 2010, the Lib Dems won a paltry 57 seats despite having the rush of fee-averse students and having provided a way out for Labour voters who had become disillusioned with their party. The Brexit party must contend with UKIP and the Tories and actually provide a manifesto.

bilston

NI voted approx 57% for Remain parties and 43% for Leave. However that's including all UUP votes as Leave which is by no means certain.

Broadly in line with the 2016 referendum which off the top of my head was 56-44 Remain in Northern Ireland.

Leroy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Plus old nige has no choice in a lengthy GE campaign but to fess up to all his less than wholesome ideas about immigration and other far right wish list items. Wittering on incessantly about democracy and crying foul every time someone on an interview panel refers to his party as extremists won't wash for long when they are required to put some flesh on some actual real policies they might hold.

He has been at this for 20 odd years, particularly the last 10 and if he has been asked those questions his supporters aren't listening to the answers.

It's all Rule Britainia, fish and the hated elite. He will simply bluster his way through the interviews and if called out on BS he'll just claim a media conspiracy.

Christy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

He has been at this for 20 odd years, particularly the last 10 and if he has been asked those questions his supporters aren't listening to the answers.

It's all Rule Britainia, fish and the hated elite. He will simply bluster his way through the interviews and if called out on BS he'll just claim a media conspiracy.

And those 20 years have not resulted in an excess of mps.

devnull

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Of course they have but they are protected by the voting system, FPTP. In 2010, the Lib Dems won a paltry 57 seats despite having the rush of fee-averse students and having provided a way out for Labour voters who had become disillusioned with their party. The Brexit party must contend with UKIP and the Tories and actually provide a manifesto.

The kind of people who vote for Farage in the majority won't care if he has a manifesto or not. They just think he talks sense and says it like it is and tells the truth. That may not be correct but this is how these people see it unfortunately.

It is very dangerous to say that the Brexit Party will not get anywhere in a General Election because they do not have a manifesto, because that is a very blinkered view based on your own opinion and my perception from the outside.

What the likes of you and me and those who would be to the left of Farage need to understand, is the people who vote for him see things very differently and what matters to us doesn't really matter to them. To suggest otherwise and to write them off is highly dangerous.

Tell me how

devnull wrote: »

The kind of people who vote for Farage in the majority won't care if he has a manifesto or not. They just think he talks sense and says it like it is and tells the truth. That may not be correct but this is how these people see it unfortunately.

It is very dangerous to say that the Brexit Party will not get anywhere in a General Election because they do not have a manifesto, because that is a very blinkered view based on your own opinion and my perception from the outside.

What the likes of you and me and those who would be to the left of Farage need to understand, is the people who vote for him see things very differently and what matters to us doesn't really matter to them. To suggest otherwise and to write them off is highly dangerous.

Isn't the bit in bold what 99% of all discussion is on Boards.

Farage ran for Westminster unsuccessfully 5 times. I do suspect that given the disarray that Labour and the Tories are in that should he run in the next GE that he will likely get elected but I also think that the party is popular exlcusively because of it's anti-EU view and no one associated with it thus far has shown any aptitude towards good governance of the UK itself.

I also think that anyone who in any way desires Brexit, voted for them or other Brexit supporting parties meaning the argument that the majority of the country still wants to leave is no longer true.

devnull

Tell me how wrote: »

Isn't the bit in bold what 99% of all discussion is on Boards.

Farage ran for Westminster unsuccessfully 5 times. I do suspect that given the disarray that Labour and the Tories are in that should he run in the next GE that he will likely get elected but I also think that the party is popular exlcusively because of it's anti-EU view and no one associated with it thus far has shown any aptitude towards good governance of the UK itself.

I also think that anyone who in any way desires Brexit, voted for them or other Brexit supporting parties meaning the argument that the majority of the country still wants to leave is no longer true.

Yes but my point more was that I know Eurosceptics, both relatives and friends as well as former colleagues and none of them are the slightest bit bothered with if he has a Manifesto anymore. These are the same people who didn't vote for UKIP in previous elections because they didn't know what they stand for.

These people used to think a manifesto and a clear outline of policy was very important to making their decision, but they don't seem to think so anymore so you will see them getting far more votes this time around.

Tell me how

devnull wrote: »

Yes but my point more was that I know Eurosceptics, both relatives and friends as well as former colleagues and none of them are the slightest bit bothered with if he has a Manifesto anymore. These are the same people who didn't vote for UKIP in previous elections because they didn't know what they stand for.

These people used to think a manifesto and a clear outline of policy was very important to making their decision, but they don't seem to think so anymore so you will see them getting far more votes this time around.

Yes but there is quite a difference in how people view EU elections versus national elections.

Many of the people that didn't care about a manifesto last week would not be as forgiving at a more relevant election. They definitely will get more votes (than UKIP might have been expected to do), but, that is categorically down to the shameful behaviour by Labour and the Conservatives than any belief in UKIP Mark II being a capable alternative.

WhiteMan32

"A dis-United Kingdom" - great quote by a BBC interviewer

ancapailldorcha

devnull wrote: »

The kind of people who vote for Farage in the majority won't care if he has a manifesto or not. They just think he talks sense and says it like it is and tells the truth. That may not be correct but this is how these people see it unfortunately.

It is very dangerous to say that the Brexit Party will not get anywhere in a General Election because they do not have a manifesto, because that is a very blinkered view based on your own opinion and my perception from the outside.

What the likes of you and me and those who would be to the left of Farage need to understand, is the people who vote for him see things very differently and what matters to us doesn't really matter to them. To suggest otherwise and to write them off is highly dangerous.

My point was that the FPTP system will prevent the Brexit party from winning big in a GE as opposed to the absence of a manifesto.

devnull

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1132895182247084037

This is great - so much contradictory stuff there, talking about the negotiations, then saying there will be none.

Honestly the state of UK Politics is embarrassing.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

My point was that the FPTP system will prevent the Brexit party from winning big in a GE as opposed to the absence of a manifesto.

What makes you say that? Up to a point FPTP stops small parties from getting in but there's a tipping point where massive seat gains can be made. A bit like Tully-mandering here.
If the BP could hit 40% across England with no single Remain party to hoover up the other 60% then what happens?

devnull

Deleted User wrote: »

What makes you say that? Up to a point FPTP stops small parties from getting in but there's a tipping point where massive seat gains can be made. A bit like Tully-mandering here. If the BP could hit 40% across England with no single Remain party to hoover up the other 60% then what happens?

Personally I think that Change UK have really been naive about how they have gone about things. It's a poor name, although better than The Independent Group, and they've not really got anything like the bounce and numbers that they thought they would when they first went independent.

Couple that with the Brexit Party, love it or hate it, it's focused on a single issue, has a very simple and clear name with a clear purpose and a clear logo, something that Change UK could have embraced. They could have gone with something like "The Remain Party" corny yes, but the name along will have got them votes in it's simplicity.

Really I think Change UK should now join the Lib Dems, all they are doing by being on the own is diluting the vote and that is not going to be good for the cause of the remain parties.

Tell me how

devnull wrote: »

Honestly the state of UK Politics is embarrassing.

It really is, and while that is somewhat entertaining on some level (purely to see how the wheels actually came off), it is frightening on many more as it does open the possibility to nefarious forces gaining more power.

Already it looks like the next GE will bring about Farage pontificating in the HoC and realistically, what type of government is going to be formed or be able to pass legislation when people like him and others are going to try to soapbox on every issue.