Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

volchitsa wrote: »

I know it was an obvious joke but Marr made me laugh with his comment about "Fox supports Hunt" head line.
(Yeah ok I'm superficial like that.)

I liked his joke about people needing to be careful when pronouncing his hashtag HuntyMcHuntFace.

Sam Russell

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Whats notable is that some EU leaders have speculated as to the potential consequences of the UK not paying the money it owes, preferring instead the general "breach your obligations under international law", some of the consequences could be:

1. Seizure of UK Gov assets within the EU e.g. their money on deposit with the ECJ, rebate due (not sure when exactly its to be repaid so unsure of this exactly), investments in common ventures e.g. Gallileo, PESCO etc, potentially stop the pensions and severance of UK MEPs (not sure they will do this though as the individuals could potentially sue in their own right) etc. So they "save" / "reserve" £39bn but the EU will "save" / "reserve" several billion of UK assets and non payment of liabilities to offset the loss. Granted, it wont be the full amount, but still.

2. Sue in the UK for breach of contract. UK will defend this on a jurisdictional basis e.g. that it is an EU agreement and all such obligations cease once art 50 period ends. I accept that they do have a stateable defence, but its not clear if it will succeed. EU Treaty law will cease, but the multi annual funding meetings are not strictly speaking covered by EU law as I understand them (but again its open to debate). If they win on jurisdiction, then surely the ECJ has the power to determine if they have breached their obligation or not. I wonder which way they will rule. The UK hasnt stated any substantive basis upon which they dont owe the money, so whichever court has jurisdiction will likely find against them.

3. Loss of reputation, sterling drops as markets percieve them as defaulters. Again, even if a clever argument about jurisdiction wins in court, China, Russia, Saudi etc will all be cautious about this supposed safe haven that doesnt repay money if it doesnt suit them politically.

4. They talk about GATT 24 and how the EU "can" agree to a temporary free trade area. If the UK reneges on its lawful debts, far from agreeing to a free trade area, the EU could seek to impose sanctions on the UK pursuant to the WTO dispute resolution system. I doubt they would do this for medicines or other essentials, but on everything else.

5. My theory is that part of the EU sees a chaotic hard brexit as an opportunity. Banking is the jewel in the UKs crown, making up something like 6% of GDP generally but indirectly making the city of London a financial powerhouse. Frankfurt, Dublin etc would like some of this. And despite what many city bankers would like you to believe about the UKs unique talent base of people etc, in reality, London grew as the safe haven in the EU but with strong commonwealth and US links. The EU member states cannot be seen to be directly competeing with the UK for this business at the moment, as that would be contrary to EU rules and ettiqute. But, if the UK leaves on a no deal, Id expect a lot of EU packages to encourage moveable financial firms to relocate inside the EU. When the Brexiteers talk about the German manufacturing lobby putting pressure on the EU, the same cannot be said for Uk based banks putting pressure on the london government. Theyll make their downside risk money on the no deal chaos, then simply relocate to Frankfurt with a nice EU relocation grant.

I wonder what Boris thinks about these consequences of withholding the money they owe, quite apart from any semse of shame or scruples being a gentleman debt defaulter

Well, let us start with aviation. EU rescinds their proposed temporary suggestion to allow some UK aircraft limited access to EU airports.

EU could require visas for each and every UK passport holder to have a one for every trip.

EU raises inspection rate for every UK truck entering the EU, plus the driving licence requirements. Certificate of Origin requirements might be another area to cause problems.

There are lots of ways the EU can make life difficult for the UK, within the law, and, like non-tariff barriers, but subtle beyond expectation.

Stop moaning ffs

Is everyone complicit in this mission to take Boris down? Even his father? Or is he just incredibly ignorant and short of memeory?
This is appalling

https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1142375439798808577?s=21

Beechwoodspark

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is everyone complicit in this mission to take Boris down? Even his father? Or is he just incredibly ignorant and short of memeory?
This is appalling

https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1142375439798808577?s=21

Was that this mornin or when?

Stop moaning ffs

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Was that this mornin or when?

Today or yesterday.

Cal4567

If the media such as The Guardian are going hell for leather full steam to try and disrupt the BJ campaign, notwithstanding that the candidate is certainly given them enough ammunition to do so, this will just harden even more the Tory members to anoint Johnson. For them it is as much ‘Stop Corbyn’ as it is Brexit.

If, as feared, the media have other angles to show up Johnson, surely this will give him victim status. This will give him an even clearer run to No. 10.

It’s all very tawdry and sleazy. All it seems to have done is given a dent, a scrape, to Boris. No more. The Tory members have made up their mind now. The majority want a Brexiteer as PM. That alone rules Jeremy Hunt out.

Cal4567

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Today or yesterday.

It was last October and got a fair few comments at the time. Not an unusual comment from a 65+ Tory who would have been an adult through most of the Troubles, had families or friends serving in the UK army in the north. Many of who would be the Tory members now voting in this election.

Stop moaning ffs

Cal4567 wrote: »

It was last October and got a fair few comments at the time. Not an unusual comment from a 65+ Tory who would have been an adult through most of the Troubles, had families or friends serving in the UK army in the north. Many of who would be the Tory members now voting in this election.

Was it? It’s trending on twitter today. That’s teally odd that it would pop back up after some time.
Youd have to wonder how or why that is.
Definitely seems to be an organised assault on Boris. From where though?


*its also popped up on a few Brexit /anti brexit FB groups im in.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is everyone complicit in this mission to take Boris down? Even his father? Or is he just incredibly ignorant and short of memeory?
This is appalling

https://twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1142375439798808577?s=21

Imagine how the DUP feel about being lumped in with the Taigs. Another blithe misunderstanding is history shows that the 'Irish' don't confine their 'shooting' to 'each other'. English elitism at its finest.

branie2

How long till we get the results about the new PM?

Water John

The hustings are going on for a whole month TMK.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Imagine how the DUP feel about being lumped in with the Taigs. Another blithe misunderstanding is history shows that the 'Irish' don't confine their 'shooting' to 'each other'. English elitism at its finest.

Something the DUP know deep down and it scalds them is that everyone in Britain just thinks of them as paddies same as us no difference.
In part I think it fuels their insistence that they’re british

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Something the DUP know deep down and it scales them is that everyone in Britain just Binks of them as paddies same as us no difference.
In part I think it fuels their insistence that they’re british

Exactly. It's like an adult trying to leave the house with a toddler clinging to their leg.

Peregrinus

branie2 wrote: »

How long till we get the results about the new PM?

Oh, God, not for weeks. If neither Hunt nor Johnson withdraws, then the choice is made by a postal ballot of members, with the results being announced in the week of 22 July. The time lapse is to allow the candidates to go tripping around the country attending local hustings, debates, etc.

It's not that there's much doubt about the result. It's just there can be no serious encounter with reality among Tories, and no real confronting of the decisions the UK must make, until this process has dragged itself out to the end. And Oct 31 gets ever closer.

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Something the DUP know deep down and it scales them is that everyone in Britain just Binks of them as paddies same as us no difference. In part I think it fuels their insistence that they’re british

Their main motivation is not to be Irish. They would look for independence before that. The term "Our Wee Country" is often heard and may be on the increase.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

Their main motivation is not to be Irish. They would look for independence before that. The term "Our Wee Country" is often heard and may be on the increase.

Seen that myself.
I’d hope one day we’d have a united ireland.
Then I look at them and think how completely awful it would be for us to have them involved in our politics or decision making.

That’s if they took their seats. They’d probably abstain.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, God, not for weeks. If neither Hunt nor Johnson withdraws, then the choice is made by a postal ballot of members, with the results being announced in the week of 22 July. The time lapse is to allow the candidates to go tripping around the country attending local hustings, debates, etc.

It's not that there's much doubt about the result. It's just there can be no serious encounter with reality among Tories, and no real confronting of the decisions the UK must make, until this process has dragged itself out to the end. And Oct 31 gets ever closer.

I dunno. While he's looking like a shoe in, there may well be some serious dirt out there on Johnson. At the very least, he's a controversial character. Just today, the Sunday Times reporting that two ministers have said he would be very exposed to blackmail. Apart from the Hunt camp, there are a lot of people out there who would be very happy to sabotage his campaign - as the domestic incident proved.

Water John

A month in the spotlight may leave him a very damaged occupier of No 10.

Cal4567

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Was it? It’s trending on twitter today. That’s teally odd that it would pop back up after some time.
Youd have to wonder how or why that is.
Definitely seems to be an organised assault on Boris. From where though?


*its also popped up on a few Brexit /anti brexit FB groups im in.

I've found that a problem with twitter. Things are put up as if they are new but in reality, they are a few months or even a year or two old. It then catches fire and before you know it, it is high on trending.

I would say a fair part of the leftist media are out to get Boris. At the same time he does make it rather easy for them. The right wing media, DT, Daily Mail, Express, have it a a leftist plot. Quite the soap opera.

Stop moaning ffs

Cal4567 wrote: »

I've found that a problem with twitter. Things are put up as if they are new but in reality, they are a few months or even a year or two old. It then catches fire and before you know it, it is high on trending.

I would say a fair part of the leftist media are out to get Boris. At the same time he does make it rather easy for them. The right wing media, DT, Daily Mail, Express, have it a a leftist plot. Quite the soap opera.

It’s quite the addictive soap opera.
I ignored british politics all my life and suffered that malign view ‘when England coughs Ireland catches a cold’ we just aped them and all their bad policy. We haven’t broken that yet, Leo and FG being tiny thatcher privatising everything as a goal.
Brexit changed that for me. I hope we finally snap out of copying their patently and obviously stupid approach to being servile to corporations and greed.
Cock eyed optimism on my part.

trellheim

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, God, not for weeks. If neither Hunt nor Johnson withdraws, then the choice is made by a postal ballot of members, with the results being announced in the week of 22 July. The time lapse is to allow the candidates to go tripping around the country attending local hustings, debates, etc.

It's not that there's much doubt about the result. It's just there can be no serious encounter with reality among Tories, and no real confronting of the decisions the UK must make, until this process has dragged itself out to the end. And Oct 31 gets ever closer.

Assume

1. BJ gets in as PM
2. Immediate vote of confidence motion from Labour . A few Tory MPs I think have gone on the record to say they would not vote for boris


Right now
Out of 650

Con
312 + DUP 10 = 322

Opposition
247+SNP 35 = 282

282+15 IND + 12 LDEM = 309

+5 Change UK, 4 Welsh, 1 Green = 309+10=319

Making up the numbers is 1 vacant, 1 speaker and 7 Sinn Fein abstentionist. Although SF taking the seats and voting against might cause the govt to fall I really am not sure what event would get them to abandon that long held policy, so its not something to count on .

some of the IND might vote with the govt e.g Lady Hermon but people like Kate Hoey might as well :rolleyes: .

The question is though would party loyalty triumph over hard brexit/fear of corbyn and would a few Tory MPs vote for a PM bent on Hard Out

Watch then as the all-stick-together spirit grows over the next couple of months while waving Land of Hope and Glory flags

Cal4567

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s quite the addictive soap opera.
I ignored british politics all my life and suffered that malign view ‘when England coughs Ireland catches a cold’ we just aped them and all their bad policy. We haven’t broken that yet, Leo and FG being tiny thatcher privatising everything as a goal.
Brexit changed that for me. I hope we finally snap out of copying their patently and obviously stupid approach to being servile to corporations and greed.
Cock eyed optimism on my part.

We are different, but also very much the same. I think Leo and certain elements of the D4 media would have us as very different, but talking to real people, we're very much the same. Similar issues, and as far as I can see, the exact same hopes, fears, and aspirations. I work a lot now across the UK. It's been a real eye opener to me how alike we are. I come home and it's all Premiership football and Love Island.

Roll on 20 years, beyond Brexit, I'm not sure in what place both countries will be.

bob mcbob

Headline in the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times

Boris victory "Will End Union"

Cryptopagan

bob mcbob wrote: »

Headline in the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times

Boris victory "Will End Union"

What difference do they imagine it will make whether Johnson or Hunt wins? Neither of them proposes to pursue a version of Brexit more acceptable to staunchly Remain Scotland.

Capt'n Midnight

Yet more evidence that the UK gov't can't manager a simple off-the-shelf IT project nevermind a techo border.

Registering online is perhaps the simplest part of any project that needs new technology.


17 July 2017 UK announced plans to roll out an online age verification scheme

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-47706818/online-pornography-age-checks-for-uk-web-users

UK internet users could soon have to pay for an ID check if they want to watch pornography online at a cost of £4.99 per device.
...
She said there was now a holding pattern for the legislation that was passed in 2017

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48700906

An age-check scheme designed to stop under-18s viewing pornographic websites has been delayed a second time.

The changes - which mean UK internet users may have to prove their age - were due to start on 15 July after already being delayed from April 2018.

What makes it worse is that like the border there are reasons why it won't work.
People can bypass it with tunnels , be they VPN's or oil pipelines or actual tunnels.

The age verification only applies to sites that have more than one third dodgy content. So you can cheat.
Stuff like the old container switcheroo with matching paperwork.

And besides it only applies to people who register. And who's going to pay to register to view the trial before you sign up to a dodgy site ? Or register if you want to smuggle in Crossmaglen

Hurrache

Apparently there's also a plot within the Tories to have Johnson gone within a day of being PM via an immediate no confidence vote.

Stop moaning ffs

bob mcbob wrote: »

Headline in the Scottish edition of the Sunday Times

Boris victory "Will End Union"

Be interested to see when that referendum gets called, if those Tories who were Happy to lose Scotland as the price of getting brexit, will still be happy to see them leave the Union.

I want and hope Scotland leaves and stands up as an independent country.
It’ll be a rocky transition but far from impossible.

Sam Russell

Hurrache wrote: »

Apparently there's also a plot within the Tories to have Johnson gone within a day of being PM via an immediate no confidence vote.

If that is true, then those MPs just need to go to TM and inform her, formally or informally, that they will bring him down within a day of him being nominated as PM, and if believed by TM, she will be duty bound to advise HM QE II of those facts, that he will not be able to command a majority in the Conservative Party or alternatively in the HoC, and advise HM that a GE be called.

That would be some call by TM.

Stop moaning ffs

Sam Russell wrote: »

If that is true, then those MPs just need to go to TM and inform her, formally or informally, that they will bring him down within a day of him being nominated as PM, and if believed by TM, she will be duty bound to advise HM QE II of those facts, that he will not be able to command a majority in the Conservative Party or alternatively in the HoC, and advise HM that a GE be called.

That would be some call by TM.

Didn’t he backstab her in a big way?
She’s be well within her rights to rat on him to her maj


What happens then though

trashcan

First Up wrote: »

Their main motivation is not to be Irish.

I've long suspected this too. It's much more about not having anything to do with the rest of the island than it is about remaining with Britain.