Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Didn’t he backstab her in a big way?
She’s be well within her rights to rat on him to her maj


What happens then though

General Election.

Hurrache

Sam Russell wrote: »

If that is true, then those MPs just need to go to TM and inform her, formally or informally, that they will bring him down within a day of him being nominated as PM, and if believed by TM, she will be duty bound to advise HM QE II of those facts, that he will not be able to command a majority in the Conservative Party or alternatively in the HoC, and advise HM that a GE be called.

That would be some call by TM.

That indeed is their plan.

Laois_Man

TM will not destroy the Tory party just to 5h1t on BJ - her loyalty to the Tory party is, in a way, just about the only redeeming feature she has!

I also find it hard to believe that other Tory's would do something to bring about a General Election - barely a single one of them, if even one of them, are in a secure seat!

Charles Babbage

Laois_Man wrote: »

TM will not destroy the Tory party just to 5h1t on BJ - her loyalty to the Tory party is, in a way, just about the only redeeming feature she has!

I also find it hard to believe that other Tory's would do something to bring about a General Election - barely a single one of them, if even one of them, are in a secure seat!

Some of them, in remain areas, might well believe that standing up to Boris would increase their chances in their constituency.

Laois_Man

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Some of them, in remain areas, might well believe that standing up to Boris would increase their chances in their constituency.

Even those won't want to be relegated to membership of a party that is the third, or possibly even the fourth largest party in the HoC

Perish the thought that the great conservative party (to them) might actually end up as the junior partner in a coalition with PM Nigel Farage!

Sam Russell

Laois_Man wrote: »

Even those won't want to be relegated to membership of a party that is the third, or possibly even the fourth largest party in the HoC

Perish the thought that the great conservative party (to them) might actually end up as the junior partner in a coalition with PM Nigel Farage!

But some may put Country ahead of Party.

Unlikely, I know.

trellheim

Sam Russell wrote: »

But some may put Country ahead of Party.

Unlikely, I know.

As I posted above the current score is 322 to 319 . At that rate it only requires a 1% voting change to beat an all-in no-confidence vote so you only need to shake loose three or four mps

First Up

Sam Russell wrote:

But some may put Country ahead of Party.

Unlikely, I know.

I think it is seat first, party second and the country a distant third.

I've heard numerous tory MPs explain with a straight face that keeping the party intact is the priority. I don't think it had occurred to them that it might be anything else.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

I think it is seat first, party second and the country a distant third.

I've heard numerous tory MPs explain with a straight face that keeping the party intact is the priority. I don't think it had occurred to them that it might be anything else.

That’s been apparent since Cameron Calling the referendum on thinking he could see off the rebels within his party. And it’s ongoing

Is this going to be addressed at any point ?

A conservative squabble lead to all his. And it’s a disaster.

Surely they’ll be held to acount

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Surely they’ll be held to acount

Corbyn in unelectable so I'm not sure they will.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

Corbyn in unelectable so I'm not sure they will.

British press saw to that.

But is it true?

When Boris comes back from Brussels with exactly the same failure and lack of understanding that the deal is done, will the focus shift into needing a new approach? I’d say Corbyn is far more competent and able to work a totally different deal than mays.

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

British press saw to that.

By reporting what he says?



When Boris comes back from Brussels with exactly the same failure and lack of understanding that the deal is done, will the focus shift into needing a new approach? I’d say Corbyn is far more competent and able to work a totally different deal than mays.[/quote]

All evidence to the contrary. Labour are as fractured as the Tories and Corbyn has exactly the same chance of a totally different deal as BoJo - i.e none

Stop moaning ffs

Maybe.
Labour is lost and divided.
But not one person in the Tory party has the key to unlock this. Bluster and hull****.
Time for new thinking maybe.

First Up

Stop moaning ffs wrote:

Maybe. Labour is lost and divided. But not one person in the Tory party has the key to unlock this. Bluster and hull****. Time for new thinking maybe.

The new thinking needs to extend to the electorate as well as politicians.

There is no magic bullet or golden key for this. The UK is in for a long slow and painful education in how the world works in the 21st century.

How it goes from here is anyone's guess but it won't be quick, or pretty.

Laois_Man

First Up wrote: »

By reporting what he says?

By misreporting everything - e.g. He didn't bow his head low enough when laying a wreath on reemergence day - he doesn't care as much as May!

Ridiculous!

Sam Russell

The Tory press are attacking the couple who recorded the BJ fracas (deliberately) in the normal 'attack the messenger' rather than report the message.

First Up

Laois_Man wrote:

By misreporting everything - e.g. He didn't bow his head low enough when laying a wreath on reemergence day - he doesn't care as much as May!

That is nonsense but I'd be more concerned that his economic policies would drive out investment.

There's a saying that capital goes where it is made most welcome and whether Corbyn likes it or not, you need capital to create wealth.

Headshot

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Tory press are attacking the couple who recorded the BJ fracas (deliberately) in the normal 'attack the messenger' rather than report the message.

Did you expect anything different? When they can't defend BJ they just try to attack the messenger.

Sam Russell

Headshot wrote: »

Did you expect anything different? When they can't defend BJ they just try to attack the messenger.

Does not make it right.

They have a history of it, Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock, Ed Miliband, and now, Jezza.

I think BJ will be an easy target for lampoons.

trellheim

I had a long talk with relatives in deepest oxfordshire during the week. The main feeling is sickness of the whole thing, and 'just get 'er done' no matter the outcome or end result - and I do mean whatever up to and including no deal . This seems apparent across a large cross-section.

First Up

trellheim wrote:

I had a long talk with relatives in deepest oxfordshire during the week. The main feeling is sickness of the whole thing, and 'just get 'er done' no matter the outcome or end result - and I do mean whatever up to and including no deal . This seems apparent across a large cross-section.

Yes, they see Brexit as they end, not the beginning.

They'll learn.

Enzokk

Laois_Man wrote: »

By misreporting everything - e.g. He didn't bow his head low enough when laying a wreath on reemergence day - he doesn't care as much as May!

Ridiculous!

Like any Labour leader he has had to face a hostile press. The problem for Corbyn is that antisemitism seems to float around him and his office which the press did not do. Then you have his policy on Brexit, which again is not some manufacturing of the press. He has had a tough time with the press but most of his problems is his own making. Let us not forget how the press attacked Ed Milliband, Corbyn isn't special in the attacks he has faced.

Stop moaning ffs

First Up wrote: »

Yes, they see Brexit as they end, not the beginning.

They'll learn.

On that.

They all collectively both sides leave and remain, seem unaware that this is just stage one.

Next stage is where it really comes home to bite and the screw gets turned.
By every single nation and trading block they have to sit down with.

It hasn’t even started yet and they don’t realise.

trellheim

First Up wrote: »

Yes, they see Brexit as they end, not the beginning.

They'll learn.

The people in question were strong remainers and still are . The utter weariness of the whole thing means everyone just wants to move on, no matter the cost. And to those saying "they don't realise etc, I suspect they do and pandora cannot close the box, but they have to move on"

I suspect this feeling has been wargamed very carefully by ERG types

Lackadaisical

The biggest problem is they don't understand or care what this "it" they're demanding be done actually involves.

I keep hearing this from English people I know too : oh let's just get on with it. Get "it" done, like as if they're talking about booking in to get a root canal done.

Pulling the plug on a huge % of integrated systems isn't going to be simple at all.
A whole lot of things that they're currently taking for granted will suddenly cease to function and they keep insisting that it's all fake news and nonsense because reality doesn't suit them.

Nody

First Up wrote: »

That is nonsense but I'd be more concerned that his economic policies would drive out investment.

There's a saying that capital goes where it is made most welcome and whether Corbyn likes it or not, you need capital to create wealth.

And hard brexit (which has been the story for the last two years) would be driving investments how exactly? Not that I think Corbyn is exactly business friendly but looking at the two options I'd argue he's more business friendly than the current Tories (though a third option would be much better) but not the business friendly option until the Brexit election results were done (it muddles after that were you want to cut it between Corbyn and May switching positions as the most business friendly option).

Joe_ Public

Hurrache wrote: »

Apparently there's also a plot within the Tories to have Johnson gone within a day of being PM via an immediate no confidence vote.

Have read this, it's interesting but hard to see how exactly it unfolds. So Johnson becomes PM 24 July, Labour table no confidence motion on 25th which, with backing of anti-Johnson tory MPs, Johnson loses. So Johnson steps down and GE is called, presuming Corbyn can't then form a gov.



In that scenario I would think any Con MP voting against Johnson would then be almost certain to be deselected for any forthcoming GE? Also, i wonder would Johnson himself be that distraught about it, as it gets him to an early GE without having failed to deliver Brexit which, i imagine, is his worst nightmare. He could face his electorate, bemoaning this stab in the back from his enemies and pleading, just give me a majority and i'll deliver brexit. Not sure it'd work, mind, but may be one of his best chances.

Tell me how

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Tory press are attacking the couple who recorded the BJ fracas (deliberately) in the normal 'attack the messenger' rather than report the message.

Off topic but we have similar issues here looking at questions into investigating a certain swinger from SCD.

Alyson Pearson could be charged with inciting unrest with her tweets about the neighbors.

First Up

Nody wrote:

And hard brexit (which has been the story for the last two years) would be driving investments how exactly? Not that I think Corbyn is exactly business friendly but looking at the two options I'd argue he's more business friendly than the current Tories (though a third option would be much better) but not the business friendly option until the Brexit election results were done (it muddles after that were you want to cut it between Corbyn and May switching positions as the most business friendly option).

Hard Brexit drives investment away. Business can only succeed if it has access to inputs and markets. Brexit suffocates both. Protectionism just disguises and postpones reality.

Sam Russell

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Have read this, it's interesting but hard to see how exactly it unfolds. So Johnson becomes PM 24 July, Labour table no confidence motion on 25th which, with backing of anti-Johnson tory MPs, Johnson loses. So Johnson steps down and GE is called, presuming Corbyn can't then form a gov.



In that scenario I would think any Con MP voting against Johnson would then be almost certain to be deselected for any forthcoming GE? Also, i wonder would Johnson himself be that distraught about it, as it gets him to an early GE without having failed to deliver Brexit which, i imagine, is his worst nightmare. He could face his electorate, bemoaning this stab in the back from his enemies and pleading, just give me a majority and i'll deliver brexit. Not sure it'd work, mind, but may be one of his best chances.

That is the point. If BJ cannot guarantee a majority in the HoC (or at least if TM believes he cannot) then she cannot recommend him as PM, and she has to recommend a GE. She would have to be certain of it, but if 20 or 30 Tory MPs inform her of their intention to not support him, she would have little choice. The prospective PM has to be able to command a majority.

The dissenting MPs do not need to be named.