Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

54and56

trellheim wrote: »

I had a long talk with relatives in deepest oxfordshire during the week. The main feeling is sickness of the whole thing, and 'just get 'er done' no matter the outcome or end result - and I do mean whatever up to and including no deal . This seems apparent across a large cross-section.

Deal fatigue is peaking.

This is going to be a case study in how not to negotiate......for generations to come.

Joe_ Public

Sam Russell wrote: »

That is the point. If BJ cannot guarantee a majority in the HoC (or at least if TM believes he cannot) then she cannot recommend him as PM, and she has to recommend a GE. She would have to be certain of it, but if 20 or 30 Tory MPs inform her of their intention to not support him, she would have little choice. The prospective PM has to be able to command a majority.

The dissenting MPs do not need to be named.

Its a very interesting scenario, that's for sure. You'd think if this does develop into a possible outcome, and i dont see why it couldn't, then Hunt would surely become a safer bet for a sizeable number of johnson supporting tory mps. Then again, they seem so wedded to the idea of Johnson as an election winner that's its hard to be sure about any of it. They are in one hell of a fix whatever happens. People say Labour are in just a big a jam, but i think their issues are just about fixable. Not so sure about the conservatives right now.

listermint

Very interesting article here about origin's of brexit in Oxford in the 80s


https://www.ft.com/content/85fc694c-9222-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2

Water John

The threat from Tory MPs like Ken Clarke is not, to refuse to support Johnson in a vote of confidence or elect him PM. Their threat is to not allow the HOC allow a, no deal Brexit. If that is what Johnson goes with, they will then vote against the Govn't.

Thargor

Boris is getting hammered on Twitter about this Bannon tape, he previously denied any relationship with him and called it lefty delusion but Bannon claims in a new documentary to be heavily involved with him, back and forths over writing his resignation speech, advised him to target Muslim women etc.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1142883370856275971

Sam Russell

Water John wrote: »

The threat from Tory MPs like Ken Clarke is not, to refuse to support Johnson in a vote of confidence or elect him PM. Their threat is to not allow the HOC allow a, no deal Brexit. If that is what Johnson goes with, they will then vote against the Govn't.

I think some of the Tories are likely to take fright if it looks like there is public revulsion wrt to BJ. He has many skeletons both in the cupboard and in full view.

If they make it known to TM before the result is in, BJ might be made to withdraw from the race by he grey suits.

Leroy42

This is quite an incredible statement by Hunt.

https://twitter.com/march_change/status/1142877478849044480?s=09

Basically, a well run local company employing 350 people and commanding significant portion of the EU market would be forced out of business as a result of 10% tariffs.

But sure that's the will of the people so he basically says screw em!

Water John

The tape is part of a docu on Steve Bannon that was not used in the final cut. It's importance is now. I'm sure Sky News or Channel 4 will oblige,

BonnieSituation

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is quite an incredible statement by Hunt.

https://twitter.com/march_change/status/1142877478849044480?s=09

Basically, a well run local company employing 350 people and commanding significant portion of the EU market would be forced out of business as a result of 10% tariffs.

But sure that's the will of the people so he basically says screw em!

Fixed that link

Leroy42

How do link properly on mobile?

Thargor

Mad world in the UK atm:

https://twitter.com/inthesedeserts/status/1142698889222467585

devnull

Tomorrow's Sun



Tommorows Mail



First time I've seen both of those papers taking opposite stances to each other for quite some time, but think this will run and run for a little while yet and he could be haunted by it if the press really stick it up to him.

Water John

The 'anarchists' are camped outside their house??

devnull

I have to say, that when it starts going to say things like a friend, a source said and pretty much no details on the source are named, there is always the chance that it may not have been said at all or it was a planted story.

Another different take from the Mirror.

trellheim

First time I've seen both of those papers taking opposite stances to each other for quite some time, but think this will run and run for a little while yet and he could be haunted by it if the press really stick it up to him.

its an attempt to own the news cycle dont forget some of the smartest people in media are trying to get rid of this

Strazdas

Leroy42 wrote: »

This is quite an incredible statement by Hunt.

https://twitter.com/march_change/status/1142877478849044480?s=09

Basically, a well run local company employing 350 people and commanding significant portion of the EU market would be forced out of business as a result of 10% tariffs.

But sure that's the will of the people so he basically says screw em!

Insane comment. In a normal democracy, any policy that was clearly going to trash the economy would be binned instantly, no matter who was in power. To be talking about doing this and using 'democracy' in the same sentence is disgusting stuff.

20silkcut

It’s like a real life version of the novel lord of the flies with the EU playing the role of the beast. The non existent existential threat.

hatrickpatrick

I haven't payed much attention to the leadership contest until this clusterf*ck happened, but just posting this to see if I'm right later: This whole "Boris Johnson in row with his partner SHOCKER" incident will backfire spectacularly on those who have reported it. Even if it's not an intentional character assassination, it massively looks like a stitch up (indeed, people in my family - who are all staunch remainers and who include a mixture of journalists and people involved in government - have been saying this repeatedly over the last few days) - the story reeks of a set-up or take down even if it actually isn't intended to be one. This will cause his supporters, by and large, to double down - while driving at least some undecideds to his side purely for the cynical "I'm voting for this guy because They (with a capital T) obviously don't want me to" factor. This type of cynicism and doubling down was what drove a lot of people to vote for Brexit in the first place, the idea that this will cause them to abandon their Lord and Saviour in his darkest hour is ridiculous. He may temporarily slip in the polls as a result of this controversy, but this is only going to end up boosting and cementing his support.

That's my view anyway, we'll see how it pans out.

Peregrinus

It's certainly not a set-up or a stitch-up; nobody is disputing the basic facts, and nobody suggests that Johnson was enticed or ensnared into a row with his partner.

What you can say is that Johnson's political opponents have ensured that this story sees the light of day. But, seriously, it was always likely to. Police called to altercation at home of prominent politician, involving prominent politician? We were always going to hear about that.

Will it harm Johnson? Johnson't main selling point is that he is a charming unprincipled sh!t with a strong sense of entitlement, and the great bulk of his supporters know that, and vote for him because they calcluate that an entitled unprincipled sh!t is what the Tory party needs right now. There may be some who are a bit squeamish about having to confront so graphically the naked truth of their own betrayal of decency, but I think most of them will swallow this, in much the way that a lot of US evangelical Christian voters have swallowed Trump the adulterous pussy-grabber.

ilovesmybrick

Brexit: alternative to Irish backstop 'feasible in three years'

So I haven't read the report itself, but the article seems to suggest that they think the solution would be for the EU to allow Ireland deviate from EU standards and have special rules for Ireland and Britain? Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but this seems to be a more convoluted and difficult to implement version of Northern Ireland staying part of the EU customs area, and instead creating some weird hybrid Northern Ireland economic zones and an Irish and UK rulebook that diverges from the EU?

To be honest as a concept it would be a good starting point for discussion...three years ago, but three months (supposedly) before leaving it seems like a waste of time and paper.

Leroy42

It also makes a mockery of the ERG insistence that they would be locked in forever. Agree the WA and put together a formal government plan to deliver on the alternatives by 3 years.

Focus the country on that as the final leave date.

robinph

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Brexit: alternative to Irish backstop 'feasible in three years'

So I haven't read the report itself, but the article seems to suggest that they think the solution would be for the EU to allow Ireland deviate from EU standards and have special rules for Ireland and Britain? Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but this seems to be a more convoluted and difficult to implement version of Northern Ireland staying part of the EU customs area, and instead creating some weird hybrid Northern Ireland economic zones and an Irish and UK rulebook that diverges from the EU?

To be honest as a concept it would be a good starting point for discussion...three years ago, but three months (supposedly) before leaving it seems like a waste of time and paper.

Would have been a good starting point for discussion between the UK and Ireland before the referendum was even considered in order for the UK to see if such a thing was possible and Ireland was OK to permit it/ move away from EU themselves.

Professor Moriarty

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's certainly not a set-up or a stitch-up; nobody is disputing the basic facts, and nobody suggests that Johnson was enticed or ensnared into a row with his partner.

What you can say is that Johnson's political opponents have ensured that this story sees the light of day. But, seriously, it was always likely to. Police called to altercation at home of prominent politician, involving prominent politician? We were always going to hear about that.

Will it harm Johnson? Johnson't main selling point is that he is a charming unprincipled sh!t with a strong sense of entitlement, and the great bulk of his supporters know that, and vote for him because they calcluate that an entitled unprincipled sh!t is what the Tory party needs right now. There may be some who are a bit squeamish about having to confront so graphically the naked truth of their own betrayal of decency, but I think most of them will swallow this, in much the way that a lot of US evangelical Christian voters have swallowed Trump the adulterous pussy-grabber.

It was so loud the three sets of neighbours distinctly heard the altercation. So it wasn't just a simple lovers' tiff. Also, some papers are reporting that this is not an isolated incident. Just a thought. Johnson and his partner intend living in No. 10. It would be interesting, to say the least. to see police calling to No. 10 for a domestic incident.

Nody

Leroy42 wrote: »

It also makes a mockery of the ERG insistence that they would be locked in forever. Agree the WA and put together a formal government plan to deliver on the alternatives by 3 years.

Focus the country on that as the final leave date.

Except the "solution" is not an actual solution and was proposed by UK back in 2017 and rejected by EU due to multiple failures. It's magical unicorn dust sprinkled over the same thing all over again to be sold as a "solution" that EU are rejecting to set the narrative.

From the article:

• Multi tiered trust certificates for companies - New system and way of vetting which takes way longer than 3 years
• Small companies excluded - Allowed to ignore all EU rules because you're a small company? Yea; that one will go down well
• Sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS)” tests could be carried out by mobile units "away from the border" so in practice we got a border but we just moved the controls away breaking the deal anyway
• Ireland in practice leaving the EU single market due to having it's own rulebook

In short it's like May's proposed deal with a new name on the "solution" which is not an actual solution and as a cherry on top it breaches DUP requirements as well. It's a no go from EU, DUP and reality but that's never stopped a Brexiteer before to propose something as a solution.

Peregrinus

robinph wrote: »

Would have been a good starting point for discussion between the UK and Ireland before the referendum was even considered in order for the UK to see if such a thing was possible and Ireland was OK to permit it/ move away from EU themselves.

Ireland can't; it's an EU competence. This is just a variation on the line that the right way to keep the border open after Brexit is Irexit.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Ms Symonds, who you'd imagine is in a pretty pivotal position now if there's any truth to this. If she decided to walk out on him and 'dish the dirt' it could do him serious damage...

Seemingly not going to happen and she is very much standing by her man.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9354092/boris-johnson-furious-partner-carrie-symonds-stitch-up-anti-brexit/

A Boris camp insider said: “As far as Carrie is concerned this is a stitch-up.

“Both she and Boris are convinced that this was politically-motivated.

“It was a row like lots of couples have at the end of a demanding day but suddenly they found the police on their doorstep.”

So I guess this is end of story unless that recording is released and there's something very juicy on it. Even then if Carrie is saying it's not a big issue it'll be hard for anyone else to make one of it either.

Leroy42

But Team Boris are spectacularly missing the point. He is a politician based almost entirely on his charisma and personality. It is thus a bit much much to suddenly ask people to forget about his personality and focus on his achievements or policies.

In addition, no one is claiming it didn't happen, so the only 'leftist' plan was to make it public (if one accepts the plan idea). But that misses the point that A) it happened and he could have easily simply laughed it off/explained it away rather than this weird attempt to cover it up, even getting some supporters to go to bat for him. What is. or at least should be, worrying for the Tory party is how terribly he has handled this and how unable he has been to face up to it.

If this is the type of thing that gets him flustered then the Tories are taking a real gamble with him as the leader.

Tell me how

Thargor wrote: »

Boris is getting hammered on Twitter about this Bannon tape, he previously denied any relationship with him and called it lefty delusion but Bannon claims in a new documentary to be heavily involved with him, back and forths over writing his resignation speech, advised him to target Muslim women etc.

Apparently BBC did not cover the uncovering of this tape on their main news yesterday..... Seems bizarre not to.

Instead, they gave Facebook head of global affairs (One Nick Clegg) the opportunity to say that FB/Cambridge Anaytica/Russia had nothing to do with influencing public opinion before the referendum.

devnull

Tell me how wrote: »

Apparently BBC did not cover the uncovering of this tape on their main news yesterday..... Seems bizarre not to.

Instead, they gave Facebook head of global affairs (One Nick Clegg) the opportunity to say that FB/Cambridge Anaytica/Russia had nothing to do with influencing public opinion before the referendum.

Unfortunately you should know by now that British State TV has an agenda and cannot be trusted. There is inherient bias in State TV in Britain because of their relience on the state for funding therefore they will be doing the best that they can to appease their paymasters.

It's sad but true.

Leroy42

devnull wrote: »

Unfortunately you should know by now that British State TV has an agenda and cannot be trusted. There is inherient bias in State TV in Britain because of their relience on the state for funding therefore they will be doing the best that they can to appease their paymasters.

It's sad but true.

I really don't think this is true. IMO they have just gone far too far on the whole 'balance' area whereby now it seems that they are scared to challenge anyone but if they do challenge one thing it must immediately be followed with a challenge to the other side, even if the other side has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

Case in point, the Tories are a mess over Brexit, but whenever it is said it must be followed by the statement that Labour are terrible as well. Whilst not untrue, it really has no bearing on whether or not the Tories are being competent, or indeed even truthful, in terms of Brexit.