Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What 'cards' are there to be played if they crash out? None whatsoever.

To my mind the average Brexiteer does not know clearly enough what will happen, because everyone is pussy footing around the issue.

Spell out what happens and who will be held to account for it. That is called 'applying pressure' in my book and it is exactly what we should be doing in stereo with the rest of the EU.

But the brexiteers arent playing by those rules.


If Leo comes out tomorrow and says "here's our infrastructure plans for the hard border in the case of no deal" then Boris, Mogg et all will jump on it and start claiming Ireland are the ones who want a hard border and the tories are doing their best to avoid it but the big bad EU and Ireland wont let them and all kinds of other bluster and lies. Then the people who should be held to account for the hard border as you want will be just dodge all blame because their brexiteer supporters will eat those lies up.


It wont apply any pressure to the people you want it to be applied to it will simply give them another false talking point to start spouting on about akin to the Gatt 24 lies and that will be a new way for them to pad out the news cycle and keep any real facts from reaching the public.

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

But the brexiteers arent playing by those rules.


If Leo comes out tomorrow and says "here's our infrastructure plans for the hard border in the case of no deal" then Boris, Mogg et all will jump on it and start claiming Ireland are the ones who want a hard border and the tories are doing their best to avoid it but the big bad EU and Ireland wont let them and all kinds of other bluster and lies. Then the people who should be held to account for the hard border as you want will be just dodge all blame because their brexiteer supporters will eat those lies up.

They are doing this already. We have to stop being afraid of anything Brexiteers think.

'Here is what will happen and why if you are stupid enough to believe we are doing it because this is what we want...then you are a fool'.

You don't need to use those words, but it should be exactly what we mean at this late stage.
You either believe the truth is on your side or you don't.

It wont apply any pressure to the people you want it to be applied to it will simply give them another false talking point to start spouting on about akin to the Gatt 24 lies and that will be a new way for them to pad out the news cycle and keep any real facts from reaching the public.

It makes no difference then. Spell out the truth again and again, stop trying to mollycoodle/cajole these people into a place they have no intention of going.

First Up

VinLieger wrote:

If Leo comes out tomorrow and says "here's our infrastructure plans for the hard border in the case of no deal" then Boris, Mogg et all will jump on it and start claiming Ireland are the ones who want a hard border and the tories are doing their best to avoid it but the big bad EU and Ireland wont let them and all kinds of other bluster and lies. Then the people who should be held to account for the hard border as you want will be just dodge all blame because their brexiteer supporters will eat those lies up.

The important audience is industry, who create wealth and give employment. Industry demands clarity and certainty and that's what Ireland and the EU are giving it. The UK is doing the opposite and fooling nobody but itself.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are doing this already. We have to stop being afraid of anything Brexiteers think.

'Here is what will happen and why if you are stupid enough to believe we are doing it because this is what we want...then you are a fool'.

You don't need to use those words, but it should be exactly what we mean at this late stage.
You either believe the truth is on your side or you don't.



It makes no difference then. Spell out the truth again and again, stop trying to mollycoodle/cajole these people into a place they have no intention of going.

Honestly though what will what you want to do achieve? You are looking to punish them out of frustration it seems, but can you even imagine how frustrated Varadkar, Junker, Tusk etc are and they think the current strategy is still the best course of action.

Theres no reason realistically to publicly announce these measures, it wont gain us anything in the long run. I dont trust the government with a lot but in this case I do due to the way they have handled everything thus far that their plans are ready to go if required unlike the UK.

VinLieger

First Up wrote: »

The important audience is industry, who create wealth and give employment. Industry demands clarity and certainty and that's what Ireland and the EU are giving it. The UK is doing the opposite and fooling nobody but itself.

Indeed and everyone from Industry circles seems to be satisfied with Ireland's plans so far and aren't shouting and stamping their feet for further information to be made public yet.

Which is exactly the opposite you see from literally every industry group in relation to their dealings with the UK government.

I see no reason for the current strategy to change.

CelticRambler

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Spell out what happens and who will be held to account for it. That is called 'applying pressure' in my book and it is exactly what we should be doing in stereo with the rest of the EU.

That was tried, albeit in a half-hearted way, during the referendum and was promptly labelled "Project Fear". You cannot apply that kind of pressure to someone who refuses to believe anything you say because you are the one saying it.

In any case, just about all the information is already spelt out in dozens of EU-published statements, some of which have also been replicated and/or expanded upon by HMG for a British audience; if interested parties in the UK choose not to read them, then that's their lookout. It's not the EU's job (and definitely not Leo Varadkar's) to tell the Brits what to think or who to hold accountable.

FrancieBrady

CelticRambler wrote: »

That was tried, albeit in a half-hearted way, during the referendum and was promptly labelled "Project Fear". You cannot apply that kind of pressure to someone who refuses to believe anything you say because you are the one saying it.

In any case, just about all the information is already spelt out in dozens of EU-published statements, some of which have also been replicated and/or expanded upon by HMG for a British audience; if interested parties in the UK choose not to read them, then that's their lookout. It's not the EU's job (and definitely not Leo Varadkar's) to tell the Brits what to think or who to hold accountable.

That's it in a nutshell...the info is all out there already, but because we are pussyfooting around afraid to offend and not spelling it out clearly- British media is still able to play games. I.E. Project 'The EU is Pressuring Ireland'.
You also have many many Irish people who are unsure as to what will happen too, which is not helping.

Tell me how

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's it in a nutshell...the info is all out there already, but because we are pussyfooting around afraid to offend and not spelling it out clearly- British media is still able to play games. I.E. Project 'The EU is Pressuring Ireland'.
You also have many many Irish people who are unsure as to what will happen too, which is not helping.

Gees, come on Francie.
As said, Irish industry is happy with strategy.
V interesting you use phrases like 'pussy footing' regarding it.

You seem to want UK media to change from 'Eu is pressuring Ireland' to 'Eu and Ireland want a hard border and will not try our plans which would avoid it'

FrancieBrady

Tell me how wrote: »

Gees, come on Francie.
As said, Irish industry is happy with strategy.
V interesting you use phrases like 'pussy footing' regarding it.

You seem to want UK media to change from 'Eu is pressuring Ireland' to 'Eu and Ireland want a hard border and will not try our plans which would avoid it'

Seems to me many here rant about British media not asking Boris or Ress Mogg the hard questions when they waffle about alternatives.
If we are not going to do it, why expect their own media to do it?

We should be spelling out what will happen and why it will happen and who is at fault for it in stereo with the EU, every chance we get. We should not be hiding non existent 'cards' (there is only one well known one) anywhere.
No prevarication and no room for mis-interpretation or any sign of weakness.

What makes you think we haven't?
The message coming from all corners of the EU is essentially the Irish message.

No point doing it in public and giving sensationalist headlines to the British press.

Tell me how

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seems to me many here rant about British media not asking Boris or Ress Mogg the hard questions when they waffle about alternatives.
If we are not going to do it, why expect their own media to do it?

We should be spelling out what will happen and why it will happen and who is at fault for it in stereo with the EU, every chance we get. We should not be hiding non existent 'cards' (there is only one well known one) anywhere.
No prevarication and no room for mis-interpretation or any sign of weakness.

Ire/EU has consistently asked UK to produce details on supposed alternatives to WA which will honour GFA and not call for a hard border.

The Irish government, including MEP Mairead McGuinness has said on QT about the implications of a No deal.
Simon Coveney has spoken about desire to avoid border because of what it would mean.

Just cause UK is ignoring this, the message shouldn't be changed just yet.
I suspect planning for No Deal has started, I don't think it needs to be publicised.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

What makes you think we haven't?
The message coming from all corners of the EU is essentially the Irish message.

No point doing it in public and giving sensationalist headlines to the British press.

Ahead of some sort of vote on this, another referendum or a GE we should be hoping to persuade the British public of the no-win situation they are in. I.E. turn unconvinced Leavers into Remainers and sow a little doubt into hardened Brexiteers.
Leave no doubt in what we are saying. As we have seen the British media will play games no matter what we do.

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What 'cards' are there to be played if they crash out? None whatsoever.

If you read the bit of my post which you quoted in your response, you will see that I already explained one gambit for that scenario, but you are obviously not reading what I write.

An Ciarraioch

The one positive aspect of Brexit to date is that it has encouraged the EU to speed up the negotiation of FTAs - one with Vietnam will be signed on Sunday, which is far less controversial than the Mercosur talks which are also nearing their conclusion:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/06/25/eu-vietnam-council-adopts-decisions-to-sign-trade-and-investment-agreements/

Zubeneschamali

First Up wrote: »

The EU is a rules based organisation. So are GATT and WTO.

Their cards are all on the table, face up.

Yeah, the EU is rules based.

Ireland, not so much. It is one of the sometimes annoying but also likeable things about us.

So officially we must implement a hard border the day after No Deal Brexit, but in practice we may drag our feet and do our best to look as if we are trying while actually not doing much.

And Brexit Britain may collapse before we have to.

FrancieBrady

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If you read the bit of my post which you quoted in your response, you will see that I already explained one gambit for that scenario, but you are obviously not reading what I write.

That there will be a hard border if they crash out...is not a 'card' though, it is a known certainty and we should be spelling out the impending reality of it, by fully revealing what form it will take and who is at fault for it.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yeah, the EU is rules based.

Ireland, not so much. It is one of the sometimes annoying but also likeable things about us.

So officially we must implement a hard border the day after No Deal Brexit, but in practice we may drag our feet and do our best to look as if we are trying while actually not doing much.

And Brexit Britain may collapse before we have to.

While Britain is much more important to Ireland, in terms of trade, than Britain
is to Ireland, Britain exports more to Ireland than Ireland exports to Britain. But this seems to be lost in the fog of Brexiteer lies.

In that context, arch Brexiteer Simon Jenkins was on Newsnight last night playing hard man. Basically, he was saying that the EU will giive Britain what it wants because countries like Ireland, Germany and France have so much to lose. Simon 'forgets' that while Britain can bully Ireland with tarriffs, the EU can bully Britain with tarriffs - with only one winner.

First Up

Zubeneschamali wrote:

So officially we must implement a hard border the day after No Deal Brexit, but in practice we may drag our feet and do our best to look as if we are trying while actually not doing much.

We'll do nothing of the sort.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That there will be a hard border if they crash out...is not a 'card' though, it is a known certainty and we should be spelling out the impending reality of it, by fully revealing what form it will take and who is at fault for it.

Why though? Also it has been spelt out without these specific details multiple times, what honestly do you think we would gain by publishing our specific plans apart from you feeling a bit better about it?

Seth Brundle

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is a lot of time before Brexit happens. It could be years. It might never happen. Even if it happens in October, that is not the end of the game, just one round.

Just for clarity, no there not a lot if time.
Brexit will happen at the end of October unless the UK change course and there's currently nothing to suggest that this will happen.
If they look for an extension, they probably won't get one to their satisfaction (if they even get one)

reslfj

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

...Britain exports more to Ireland than Ireland exports to Britain. But this seems to be lost in the fog of Brexiteer lies.

.... that while Britain can bully Ireland with tarriffs, the EU can bully Britain with tarriffs - with only one winner.

The EU27 will not and need not bully Britain. The EU27 will - from day one - apply the EU's MFN tariffs and all coming from the UK into the EU27.

The Irish land border is, however, in the context of value and volume a very insignificant UK border and it seems the EU27 will focus its efforts on traffic from Dover and from other large UK export harbours.

A 'festina lente' EU border policy on the island of Ireland would be not be any surprice to me.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And Brexit Britain may collapse before we have to.

Politically very fast and economically not much later.

Lars

FrancieBrady

VinLieger wrote: »

Why though? Also it has been spelt out without these specific details multiple times, what honestly do you think we would gain by publishing our specific plans apart from you feeling a bit better about it?

Why not lay them out? We will have to do it, we do it reluctantly, let them know this..in the clearest possible terms.
We will get the blame from certain quarters regardless.

It underlines the seriousness of the position and that is what those who wish to Remain/Brexit with a deal need to be able to point to.

'This is what happens if we cannot get a deal, there in colour, in architectural plan and detail, and location'.

MrMusician18

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Irish government shouldn't be pussyfooting around what brexiteers might say or do though, whether they be from Antrim or Finchley.

Tell the truth and let the cards fall where they may.

The real problem with that approach is that it will import Brexit poison to Irish political discourse. Irish government, opposition politicians and media are happy to live in a state of ignorance with regards to the future of the border if no deal is the result. By not having to confront the issue now, it keeps the Irish side united. Injecting a dose of realism now would fracture the approach at home and give those that seek no deal in the UK something to latch into.

As I've said previously, the strategy of the government is clearly to ignore the border or lightly enforce it at most in the short term in the hope that the UK will be forced to come back to the table when it's shook out of it's nationalist stupor. However should that not arise the open border will be untenable. Ireland will then be forced to make a choice, whether to align with Westminster or Brussels.

The Irish government will choose Brussels simply because it is less economically damaging to introduce restrictions at the border than see the multinationals leave en masse.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The real problem with that approach is that it will import Brexit poison to Irish political discourse. Irish government, opposition politicians and media are happy to live in a state of ignorance with regards to the future of the border if no deal is the result. By not having to confront the issue now, it keeps the Irish side united. Injecting a dose of realism now would fracture the approach at home and give those that seek no deal in the UK something to latch into.

As I've said previously, the strategy of the government is clearly to ignore the border or lightly enforce it at most in the short term in the hope that the UK will be forced to come back to the table when it's shook out of it's nationalist stupor. However should that not arise the open border will be untenable. Ireland will then be forced to make a choice, whether to align with Westminster or Brussels.

The Irish government will choose Brussels simply because it is less economically damaging to introduce restrictions at the border than see the multinationals leave en masse.

We already know the answer to that one. A stranded UK outside the EU and at loggerheads with everyone is something nobody would touch with a barge pole.

Zubeneschamali

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just for clarity, no there not a lot if time.
Brexit will happen at the end of October unless the UK change course and there's currently nothing to suggest that this will happen.

Yes, there is.

Last time they faced the cliff edge, they did not jump. The time before, same. They had two opportunities to go for No Deal, and they didn't want it. Nothing (literally nothing) has happened since then to change anyone's mind.

So that means that unless something changes, the most likely outcome in October is the same outcome as on March 29th and 10th April - another extension.

Zubeneschamali

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The Irish government will choose Brussels simply because it is less economically damaging to introduce restrictions at the border than see the multinationals leave en masse.

It is less economically damaging to us in the South. It will be devastating for NI coming on top of the general Brexit damage to the UK.

But it will be clear to all in NI whose fault it is, who did everything possible to avoid the damage, who ignored the views of the majority in NI, and which side of the Border their bread is buttered on.

So if we are eventually forced to put up a real border, it will only hasten the final end of the border in some sort of United Ireland.

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes there is.


Last time they faced the cliff edge, they did not jump. The time before, same. They had two opportunities to go for No Deal, and they didn't want it. Nothing (literally nothing) has happened since then to change anyone's mind.


So that means that unless something changes, the most likely outcome in October is the same outcome as on March 29th and 10th April - another extension.

There will be one difference this time.
If the UK do not leave on the 31st Oct, there will be a GE.
The Labour conference in September is likely to call for a second referendum.
It may come down to the likes of Dominic Grieve scuppering the Tory extremists of delivering a hard Brexit.

EU (Tusk) have said they will allow an extension beyond Oct 31 if it is to facilitate either a GE or referendum.

Laois_Man

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The real problem with that approach is that it will import Brexit poison to Irish political discourse. Irish government, opposition politicians and media are happy to live in a state of ignorance with regards to the future of the border if no deal is the result. By not having to confront the issue now, it keeps the Irish side united. Injecting a dose of realism now would fracture the approach at home and give those that seek no deal in the UK something to latch into.

As I've said previously, the strategy of the government is clearly to ignore the border or lightly enforce it at most in the short term in the hope that the UK will be forced to come back to the table when it's shook out of it's nationalist stupor. However should that not arise the open border will be untenable. Ireland will then be forced to make a choice, whether to align with Westminster or Brussels.

The Irish government will choose Brussels simply because it is less economically damaging to introduce restrictions at the border than see the multinationals leave en masse.

The open border would be untenable to the British too. WTO rules are, when operating without bilateral agreements, they erect a border to all WTO members, or leave their borders open to all WTO members.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

There will be one difference this time.
If the UK do not leave on the 31st Oct, there will be a GE.
The Labour conference in September is likely to call for a second referendum.
It may come down to the likes of Dominic Grieve scuppering the Tory extremists of delivering a hard Brexit.

EU (Tusk) have said they will allow an extension beyond Oct 31 if it is to facilitate either a GE or referendum.

The problem there is that there are some Leave Labour MPs who might vote with the Tory extremists. Some of them would back No Deal rather than Remain.

First Up

MrMusician18 wrote:

As I've said previously, the strategy of the government is clearly to ignore the border or lightly enforce it at most in the short term in the hope that the UK will be forced to come back to the table when it's shook out of it's nationalist stupor. However should that not arise the open border will be untenable. Ireland will then be forced to make a choice, whether to align with Westminster or Brussels.

You were wrong when you said it before and you are wrong again now. Ireland will protect the integrity of the Single Market.

Of course there will be flexibility for obviously local traffic (as on all the EU's external borders) but we will not turn a blind eye to abuse.

Nothing will be done "in the hope" of anything.