Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

54and56

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That there will be a hard border if they crash out...is not a 'card' though, it is a known certainty and we should be spelling out the impending reality of it, by fully revealing what form it will take and who is at fault for it.

Don't see any point in playing the blame game.

UK and ROI are in the EU when GFA is negotiated, no one anticipates or builds into the agreement something like Brexit which sees NI and ROI diverge in terms of customs etc.

UK decides to leave the EU in the hardest way possible thus creating a customs border.

EU doesn't want to put up a hard border but is obliged to protect it's market and people from non conforming/potentially dangerous products.

Hard border is the only option until alternative solutions are actually workable and pass functionality tests. Even the British Civil Service admit that will take at least 10 years to develop, test and implement.

Anyone who can't see where the fundamental blame lies for creating a customs border either isn't looking or doesn't want to know.

If the EU starts pointing the finger at the UK it won't achieve anything as the only people who could benefit from such a clarification are those who aren't interested in the truth and who believe anything the EU says must be a lie.

We should save our breath, focus on implementing as soft a border as possible in order to fulfil our obligations and put our energy into mitigating the effects on ourselves and our EU partners whilst at the same time taking no pleasure in watching the UK implode and avoiding the temptation to say "I told you so".

FrancieBrady

54&56 wrote: »

If the EU starts pointing the finger at the UK it won't achieve anything as the only people who could benefit from such a clarification are those who aren't interested in the truth and who believe anything the EU says must be a lie.

It makes it tougher for those advocating for Brexit to spin lies. And that, at this point, IS crucially important.

There are those who remain to be convinced either way in the UK and it to those we(the EU) would be talking.
Spelling out again and again the reality of what will happen and why it is happening is not engaging in a blame game...it is keeping the truth front and centre of the inevitable debate.

kunst nugget

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It makes it tougher for those advocating for Brexit to spin lies. And that, at this point, IS crucially important.

That's patently nonsense. They have had plenty of clarification from the EU on many, many issues and it has never made a jot of difference to the fantasies being espoused by the Brexiteers.

MrMusician18

First Up wrote: »

You were wrong when you said it before and you are wrong again now. Ireland will protect the integrity of the Single Market.

Of course there will be flexibility for obviously local traffic (as on all the EU's external borders) but we will not turn a blind eye to abuse.

Nothing will be done "in the hope" of anything.

You really think on B-day+1 that border checks are going to be enforced and tariffs collected? There is no infrastructure in place and this is allegedly happening at the end of October. For local, transit or other traffic.

The Irish attitude to protecting the integrity of the single market will be called into question after hard Brexit and the Irish government will probably be given up to a year to get it's enforcement in order. It will be in this period that the Irish Government are clearly hoping for a change in the political direction of the UK.

Ultimately it will come down to a choice between following the UK or the single market and Ireland will choose the single market despite the difficulty in implementing it's rules at the border.

54and56

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It makes it tougher for those advocating for Brexit to spin lies. And that, at this point, IS crucially important.

There are those who remain to be convinced either way in the UK and it to those we(the EU) would be talking.
Spelling out again and again the reality of what will happen and why it is happening is not engaging in a blame game...it is keeping the truth front and centre of the inevitable debate.

Spell it out now BEFORE a No Deal Brexit? Absolutely.

Continue spelling it out AFTER a No Deal Brexit? Waste of time and energy. The EU would only be fanning the flames of those hard Brexiteers who'd be looking for someone to blame once the sunny uplands they'd promised Brexit would deliver turns into a self inflicted economic, social and political implosion without historic precedent.

BluePlanet

Laois_Man wrote: »

The open border would be untenable to the British too. WTO rules are, when operating without bilateral agreements, they erect a border to all WTO members, or leave their borders open to all WTO members.

My understanding is the WTO doesn't necessarily require a border, but in practice that's what countries do.
Thing is, in the scenario whereby the UK won't put up a border despite WTO: other WTO members will complain and this will take time before those complaints have teeth.
Meanwhile the EU will probably move quicker to defend the single market and put up infastructure.

This is all part of the blame game the Tories are waging.
They'll want to construe a narrative that the EU gets the blame for the border.

First Up

MrMusician18 wrote:

You really think on B-day+1 that border checks are going to be enforced and tariffs collected? There is no infrastructure in place and this is allegedly happening at the end of October. For local, transit or other traffic.

Whatever way it is managed, it will not be Ireland "dragging its feet" or pretending to do anything.

MrMusician18 wrote:

The Irish attitude to protecting the integrity of the single market will be called into question after hard Brexit and the Irish government will probably be given up to a year to get it's enforcement in order. It will be in this period that the Irish Government are clearly hoping for a change in the political direction of the UK.

If the border on this island is not controlled, then our membership of the Single Market will be suspended until it is.

MrMusician18 wrote:

Ultimately it will come down to a choice between following the UK or the single market and Ireland will choose the single market despite the difficulty in implementing it's rules at the border.

Of course it will. Our entire economic strategy is based on it.

VinLieger

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It makes it tougher for those advocating for Brexit to spin lies. And that, at this point, IS crucially important.

It absolutely does nothing of the sort. Currently they have no specific information so they have to make lies about every thing and every possible scenario many of which end up being completely contradictory which helps show them up for the liars they are.


If you give them specific information they can then construct a very specific and crafted set of lies around that which will be far far harder to fight against, "project fear" is a prime example of this happening

mm_surf

I suspect that in the event of a "no deal" scenario, Ireland will effectively erect a "one way" border control for goods. The Irish agribusiness sector will be very protective of it's standards, and i think controls similar to what were used during the foot & mouth crisis would be implemented.
People movement unaffected, but checks on goods vehicles definately. As for goods leaving the country, I'm not aware of any tariffs for exported goods (gas? Minerals? Maybe). So no need for Ireland to check those as they leave the state.
I can't see "mainland" Britain getting too worried about the NI goods/border in the event of a no deal, there will be enough going on elsewhere to deal with- it certainly won't be a priority. Hopefully Boris can finagle a GE which results in the DUP not holding the balance and then the backstop can be limited to NI (as in the initial withdrawal agreement). While idealogically distasteful to Unionists, its by far in the best interests of both Unions.
M.

Sam Russell

BluePlanet wrote: »

My understanding is the WTO doesn't necessarily require a border, but in practice that's what countries do.
Thing is, in the scenario whereby the UK won't put up a border despite WTO: other WTO members will complain and this will take time before those complaints have teeth.
Meanwhile the EU will probably move quicker to defend the single market and put up infastructure.

This is all part of the blame game the Tories are waging.
They'll want to construe a narrative that the EU gets the blame for the border.

Dover is where it will be fought the hardest.

In the first instance, Ireland will issue instructions for approved border crossings for commercial traffic, and will require compliance enforced by random inspections. Commercial traffic using unapproved crossings will be dealt with in a similar way to drivers without insurance etc. Vehicle impounded (as is the case for any smugglers) and swingeing penalties.

If Dover causes the expected chaos, the NI border will be ignored by both the UK and the EU. I assume the current inspections at Larne will continue, but maybe at a higher level.

If the situation at Dover improves from utter chaos to manageable chaos, then expect the Irish Gov to review its arrangements. Milk lorries that currently collect milk from both sides of the border will be restricted to only one side, etc.

Laois_Man

First Up wrote: »

If the border on this island is not controlled, then our membership of the Single Market will be suspended until it is.

In the even of a hard Brexit on Oct 31st, Ireland's membership of the Single Market will be suspended on November 1st?

Sam Russell

Laois_Man wrote: »

In the even of a hard Brexit on Oct 31st, Ireland's membership of the Single Market will be suspended on November 1st?

Why? Surely, the border at Dover will be more important. There will be no infringement on Nov 1st.

First Up

Laois_Man wrote:

In the even of a hard Brexit on Oct 31st, Ireland's membership of the Single Market will be suspended on November 1st?

If we don't police the EU border in Ireland, it will be policed between Ireland and the rest of the EU. The procedures may be at the Irish port of departure or the EU port of arrival but there will be procedures.

Enzokk

Seems like Corbyn is having a difficult meeting with his Shadow Cabinet on Brexit. He still wants to delay it seems, they are intent on Labour settling on a policy.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1143534143101460480

Thornberry and McDonnell and Abbott seem to be telling Corbyn there is no more delaying, Labour needs to back a second referendum and Remain or lose votes.

VinLieger

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like Corbyn is having a difficult meeting with his Shadow Cabinet on Brexit. He still wants to delay it seems, they are intent on Labour settling on a policy.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1143534143101460480

Thornberry and McDonnell and Abbott seem to be telling Corbyn there is no more delaying, Labour needs to back a second referendum and Remain or lose votes.

His fence sitting is beyond farcical at this stage

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

His fence sitting is beyond farcical at this stage

He's caught between personal ideology and the views of about 26 Leave MPs versus the views of a vast majority of Labour party members

Leroy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's caught between personal ideology and the views of about 26 Leave MPs versus the views of a vast majority of Labour party members

Didn't he run on the promise to always listen to the members and d as they wished rather than simply what the leader wanted?

It is quite changearound.

Going back to Johnson, he has done a few interviews yesterday and today and apart from the lack of any plan (1 answer was they needed a plan!) and his inability to deal with what should be a fairly straightforward issue regarding the argument, is his complete lack of ability to actually speak.

He makes no sense whatsoever. His diction is a disaster, he seemingly has no vocabulary as he is always reaching so a word and he cannot string a sentence, never mind a cogent argument, together.

This is the man that they think will persuade the EU to change it position. They simply will have no idea what he is talking about.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's caught between personal ideology and the views of about 26 Leave MPs versus the views of a vast majority of Labour party members

100% agree, i cannot understand how the grassroots who are absolutely in the majority remain cannot see he is a big part of the reason brexit is in the state it is and they are still without a GE or 2nd Ref

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

100% agree, i cannot understand how the grassroots who are absolutely in the majority remain cannot see he is a big part of the reason brexit is in the state it is and they are still without a GE or 2nd Ref

Reading between the lines, it seems like he's increasingly isolated within the Labour party. When Watson openly challenged his position recently, it emboldened others to do the same. I think he either now backs a second referendum or there will be a heave.

Laois_Man

First Up wrote: »

If we don't police the EU border in Ireland, it will be policed between Ireland and the rest of the EU. The procedures may be at the Irish port of departure or the EU port of arrival but there will be procedures.

And you're saying these procedures will begin on November 1st?

First Up

Laois_Man wrote:

And you're saying these procedures will begin on November 1st?

Barring any other intervention or developments - yes.

CelticRambler

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We should be spelling out what will happen and why it will happen and who is at fault for it in stereo with the EU, every chance we get.

"We" have been doing that for years. Remember the "Barnier staircase" ? We gave the Brits a simple step-by-step guide to what they could expect in the light of TM's red lines. Instead of picking one of the pre-defined options, they decided to play pin the tail on the unicorn.

Reporters and journalists (e.g. James O'Brien) have spent years trying to get Leavers to explain precisely which law and what regulations they'll change post Brexit. YouGov & other pollsters constantly demonstrate that a huge percentage of the English are now fully indoctrinated into the cult of Brexit.

And if that wasn't enough, there is no way "we" can spell out (any more than we have) what will happen in the future or who is/will be at fault when none of us know if, when or what circumstances will surround an eventual Brexit.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

we should be hoping to persuade the British public of the no-win situation they are in.

Turn that around for a sec: how would you feel if we had a bunch of Germans, Spaniards or Romanians telling us what to think? :eek:

It is not our fault that the English have bred the kind of rabid press and insipid BBC that informs them; it is not our fault that they've got a ridiculously unrepresentative electoral system; and it is not our fault if the Remain/pro-EU/anti-Brexit can't get their act together to smack some sense into the heads of the other side.

Joe_ Public

10000maniacs wrote: »

Bernard Jenkin on Newsnight now suggesting that it is possible to do a basic interim trade deal and do it before the 31st of October just on goods and even better can be done on a few sheets of paper under GATT Article 24. Do they really want to put tariffs on trade between the UK and EU? he bellows.
Emily Maitlis is again clueless on this and gets muddled and flustered. Andrew Neal would rip Jenkin to shreds on the same issue.

Andrew Neil has been going through them for a shortcut for months, this as faar back as January last:

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Going back to Johnson, he has done a few interviews yesterday and today and apart from the lack of any plan (1 answer was they needed a plan!) and his inability to deal with what should be a fairly straightforward issue regarding the argument, is his complete lack of ability to actually speak.

He makes no sense whatsoever. His diction is a disaster, he seemingly has no vocabulary as he is always reaching so a word and he cannot string a sentence, never mind a cogent argument, together.

This is the man that they think will persuade the EU to change it position. They simply will have no idea what he is talking about.

He is very effective when he does he whaffling and obfuscating. The problem for him is that on Brexit there is very little chance to try and chance your way through an interview on the subject as people and journalists have been focused on it now for 3 years and know the inns and outs of the arguments.

Have you seen any Brexiteer come out of an interview where they are challenged on their stance in any credible way? Think about that? Try to think how badly Barry Gardiner has been as he has been chasing the same shadows from a Labour point of view on Brexit.

The problem is if they will need to admit that there is no sunny upland and there will be pain for people and they will not do that as they campaigned on Brexit being good for the country where they would continue being a big player while leaving the EU. We know this is false so any interview with anyone on this subject will be a car crash.

Take any other subject and his style will be very effective. It is just Brexit that is catching him out.

Laois_Man

First Up wrote: »

Barring any other intervention or developments - yes.

So the fact that the UK asked for an extension with 9 days to go before Brexit in March, and asked again with 7 days to go before Brexit in April, where neither Ireland nor the EU had put in place any plans to implement such procedures, and where they are currently making no plans to do so on November 1st either, doesn't make you think you might be wrong?

Leroy42

Certainly his style seems to be very popular with the masses, but the problem he will find is that once PM he is no longer dealing with the masses but with other world leaders and leaders in other areas.

Clearly the EU will be willing to listen to any plans from the UK, they don't want a No Deal, but Johnson will not be able to state a plan to them. Some waffle about plans, and post implementation arrangements and "Art 24 or whatever" is not going to cut it.

It might have been a runner at the start of the process, but not after 3 years.

Alun

Leroy42 wrote: »

Going back to Johnson, he has done a few interviews yesterday and today and apart from the lack of any plan (1 answer was they needed a plan!) and his inability to deal with what should be a fairly straightforward issue regarding the argument, is his complete lack of ability to actually speak.

He makes no sense whatsoever. His diction is a disaster, he seemingly has no vocabulary as he is always reaching so a word and he cannot string a sentence, never mind a cogent argument, together.

This is the man that they think will persuade the EU to change it position. They simply will have no idea what he is talking about.

I agree 100%, he's no better than Trump in that regard. The EU will make mincemeat of him.

First Up

Laois_Man wrote:

So the fact that the UK asked for an extension with 9 days to go before Brexit in March, and asked again with 7 days to go before Brexit in April, where neither Ireland nor the EU had put in place any plans to implement such procedures, and where they are currently making no plans to do so on November 1st either, doesn't make you think you might be wrong?

What makes you think nobody is making plans?

VinLieger

Laois_Man wrote: »

So the fact that the UK asked for an extension with 9 days to go before Brexit in March, and asked again with 7 days to go before Brexit in April, where neither Ireland nor the EU had put in place any plans to implement such procedures, and where they are currently making no plans to do so on November 1st either, doesn't make you think you might be wrong?

Theyve been making plans since the day article 50 was triggered if not the day the result came in, they have simply not made them entirely public as doing so would have benefitted the UKs negotiating team

fly_agaric

First Up wrote: »

Whatever way it is managed, it will not be Ireland "dragging its feet" or pretending to do anything.

Have you observed governance here over last 20 years?
It is always foot dragging and can kicking until forced by circumstances.

Effect of the NI border becoming an external EU frontier we have to watch overnight in event of UK crash-out Brexit are awfully painful and quite monumental (unlike some of the other 'very very hard, so so complex' stuff that gets long fingered by our politicians like building a few poxy houses, bus lanes or a toy tram system!)