Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public

From what i see everything about Johnson is shrouded in mythology. The myth that he's some kind of avuncular charmer who will attract people with his steady wit and magnetic charm when, as Max Hastings and others have attested, he's in reality a boorish charlatan with a temper that wont bear up in pressure situations. That he will be some kind of magnetic vote getter and saviour of the conservative party is another myth. So he won 2 mayoral elections in the capital, against an opponent whose stock had well and truly fallen by that time and Johnsons record simply does not bear the scrutiny they pretend it does. "Boris delivered the Olympics," they chorus, as if he did it all single-handed or even had anything to do with the initial campaign. His own seat in Uxbridge isn't even that watertight in the event of an early election, as constituents there have a bone to pick with him over the heathrow terminal issue. He has a working majority of just 5,000.

The bottom line is if there actually was any "wiggle room" in the EU's negotiating position, then the last person you would wish to send to talk to them would be Boris Johnson. It's not just that they dont like him, but that they dont rate him and would likely see him out of town at the first sign of foolishness. He just isn't any good really which is what the cultish bracket of his supporters will discover to their and our cost before very long i wager.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Certainly his style seems to be very popular with the masses, but the problem he will find is that once PM he is no longer dealing with the masses but with other world leaders and leaders in other areas.

Clearly the EU will be willing to listen to any plans from the UK, they don't want a No Deal, but Johnson will not be able to state a plan to them. Some waffle about plans, and post implementation arrangements and "Art 24 or whatever" is not going to cut it.

It might have been a runner at the start of the process, but not after 3 years.

I agree, but any of the candidates other than Stewart will be caught out because Brexit is a car crash. Trying to defend it will not end well for anyone. We will wait for Hunt to get in front of journalists and do his interviews to see if he handles it any better, but I doubt he will be because to get the vote to become leader will mean you will have to believe in unicorns.

I mean is the plan put forward by Jeremy Hunt anymore credible than Johnson? The EU has already said no to renegotiation, so what will he offer the EU to open talks again that will mean the backstop will not be needed?

Alun wrote: »

I agree 100%, he's no better than Trump in that regard. The EU will make mincemeat of him.

The EU will make mincemeat of any candidate who comes in with unrealistic objectives.

Spanish Eyes

I would be concerned about Johnson upholding the dignity of office as PM.

He has blustered his way to this point by inventing himself as a buffoon, and has got away with it. But he has never had to hold high office.

Remember there is only a potential majority of 160k Tory voters who may elevate him. I doubt he would be able to argue his way out of a paper bag in real life.

For that reason, I want him to be PM. Let him and the TP see what reality is like and so on.

Whatever about the disastrous tenure of Theresa May, the one thing you could say about her is that she had dignity, manners and respect in her own right.

Am not so sure if Johnson could speak a sentence with accuracy and gravitas. And now that he's had his hair cut, he cannot hide behind his big fringe either.

I think the UK is really going to hell in a handcart. But let them at it. I know we will be affected, but no matter what it's not really going to improve unless Johnson just revokes. I wouldn't be surprised, but would be happy if he did. It would be something different I suppose and maybe he will dress it up somehow as a holding measure or something. I must dream on though.

kunst nugget

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I would be concerned about Johnson upholding the dignity of office as PM.

He has blustered his way to this point by inventing himself as a buffoon, and has got away with it. But he has never had to hold high office .

Is foreign secretary not high office? I mean, he made a hames of it but I would have thought that it would be considered high office.

ancapailldorcha

kunst nugget wrote: »

Is foreign secretary not high office? I mean, he made a hames of it but I would have thought that it would be considered high office.

The four great offices of state are Prime Minister, Chancellor, Home Secretary & Foreign Secretary.

Spanish Eyes

kunst nugget wrote: »

Is foreign secretary not high office? I mean, he made a hames of it but I would have thought that it would be considered high office.

No, being a Minister for Foreign Affairs (equivalent here) is being a member of Cabinet. He rightly stitched up Razanin, and is still bluffing his way out of that one.

Being PM is high office IMV. Maybe I should have said that instead.

Spanish Eyes

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The four great offices of state are Prime Minister, Chancellor, Home Secretary & Foreign Secretary.

Does everyone in UK know this? Is there a rule for this anywhere. Thanks.

Leroy42

Yes, Foreign Sec is high office as is any minister. And I would count London Mayor as high office as well.

And in both of them he made terrible errors and has no specific achievements to point to.

One area that is being glossed over by the media in the UK, or at least I haven't seen it brought up directly to Team Boris, is why he choose to vote for TM deal the last vote? Would he have accepted it if it had passed? What has changed since then to so massively rule it out?

Also, and this is a question for both Johnson and Hunt, they should be asked how they 1) envisage No deal impacting the country and 2) how will they counteract any impact.

ancapailldorcha

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Does everyone in UK know this? Is there a rule for this anywhere. Thanks.

Does the whole country know this? Highly unlikely.

There's no rule. These four positions are simply the highest and most prestigious in government and are therefore the most sought after. Like Parliament, convention is important here.

Spanish Eyes

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Does the whole country know this? Highly unlikely.

There's no rule. These four positions are simply the highest and most prestigious in government and are therefore the most sought after. Like Parliament, convention is important here.

Thanks,

The only one of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse I know the name of is TM. There have been so many resignations and sackings lately. Note to self, look up who the other three Stooges are.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

One area that is being glossed over by the media in the UK, or at least I haven't seen it brought up directly to Team Boris, is why he choose to vote for TM deal the last vote? Would he have accepted it if it had passed? What has changed since then to so massively rule it out?

Also, and this is a question for both Johnson and Hunt, they should be asked how they 1) envisage No deal impacting the country and 2) how will they counteract any impact.

Well the easy explanation for him voting for her deal is just to get Brexit done with. That would have fulfilled the referendum vote so if it was successful he would have sold it as such. It is still one of the great ironies, Brexiteers who want to leave the EU keep voting against leaving the EU.

The real problem I see for Hunt is that he is a Remainer. This will surely link him to May and once he goes to the EU and asks for a extension he will be hammered the same as she was. So electing him leader solves absolutely nothing.

Hurrache

The sly Hunt has just exposed the EU's dastardly plan..
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1143565534484672512?s=19

Joe_ Public

Seems a valid question to me. If Johnson was able to vote for PM's deal back in March, then why couldn't he vote for it now? The dynamics remain the same: if they want to leave then it remains the only viable option for them to achieve it. To persist with the fantasy that he's going to be able to lead them out on a no deal ticket is simply wasting everybody's time, which the EU warned against. "Things change," i heard him say during one of the interviews which is probably how he'd begin his explanation of his many volte faces. Apparently, however, things don't change enough over there when it comes to the issue of a peoples vote. Seems everybody else can change their mind, except the actual people themselves.

spacecoyote

Not sure if posted but seems hes trying to put the challenge out to Hunt to either commit or back down on Brexit in October

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304

Tell me how

^^^

Jeremy should respond with.

'Let's discuss on TV in front of the entire UK Boris"

Professor Moriarty

No Deal increasingly possible. Bookies have it at 2/1 now. Interesting times.

Joe_ Public

Johnson: "The Irish Taoiseach has already suggested that any further extension would be subject to the condition that the UK holds a second referendum."

That is a serious misrepresentation of what Varadkar actually said, which was this: "So I think an extension could really only happen to facilitate something like a General Election in the UK or perhaps something like a second referendum if they decided to have one."

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers. Can't see there is any dealing with the man at all.

First Up

Joe_ Public wrote:

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers. Can't see there is any dealing with the man at all.

BoJo has only one objective at the moment (become PM) and only one audience (the people who can vote for PM). Everything he says should be interpreted accordingly.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

The sly Hunt has just exposed the EU's dastardly plan..
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1143565534484672512?s=19

Brussels types, look away now he says backstop solution is technology, and EU didn’t listen to that because they wanted to keep us in the Customs Union ... more lines to come

Quote from the tweet. This is ridiculous now, the EU didn't want the UK in a customs union. All they wanted was to ensure the spirit of the GFA is adhered to and for NI to be in a customs union to facilitate this. It was May that insisted, on the back of the DUP, that the whole of the UK is in a customs union. This is no better than the bluster from Johnson, the EU will give Hunt just as little time as they will the unicorns Johnson is selling them.

Pitiful from both.

Enzokk

First Up wrote: »

BoJo has only one objective at the moment (become PM) and only one audience (the people who can vote for PM). Everything he says should be interpreted accordingly.

I agree with this, but the piper will need to be paid and if the likes of Francois and the ERG feel they have been left at the alter they will respond and get rid of Johnson as they got rid of May. The difference, he has less support in the Party than May and more rebels so a vote of no-confidence should succeed more easily.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No Deal increasingly possible. Bookies have it at 2/1 now. Interesting times.

Got it at 13/5 a few months back along with a hard border in 2019 at 4/1, might as well make some money out of this farce

Leroy42

Surely the problem for the ERG is that this really is their run at it. The likes of Baker, JRM etc will lose all credibility (I know its odd that they have any at all) if they turn on Johnson.

At that point they would have had BRexiteers as two ministers for Brexit (3 if there is another) and a fully fledged and fully backed PM Brexiteer.

The counter to that of course is that they don't really care whether Johnson lasts of PM or not, he is the useful idiot that will be happy to deliver No Deal simply to save himself.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the problem for the ERG is that this really is their run at it. The likes of Baker, JRM etc will lose all credibility (I know its odd that they have any at all) if they turn on Johnson.

At that point they would have had BRexiteers as two ministers for Brexit (3 if there is another) and a fully fledged and fully backed PM Brexiteer.

The counter to that of course is that they don't really care whether Johnson lasts of PM or not, he is the useful idiot that will be happy to deliver No Deal simply to save himself.

Yes, he is the tool to get what they want and they will discard him as soon as he is not useful any longer. The problem is that they have the numbers to make a difference in the HoC so whoever is the PM will have to deal with them with care. It is the Brexit problem, it doesn't matter who is in charge they will still have to deal with the problems May had. A razor thin majority, having to placate the DUP, the ERG and enough soft leave Conservatives that will make the job almost impossible.

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

Got it at 13/5 a few months back along with a hard border in 2019 at 4/1, might as well make some money out of this farce

Hope it was a hefty punt. We'll all be taking a cold shower if it happens.

Joe_ Public

I cant claim i know better than the oddsmakers, but i wouldnt be touching 2/1 on no deal with my hard earned anyway. I think revoking A50 is around the same price which just indicates how volatile the whole situation is. I know no deal is default position, but there's no part of me can see how that is allowed to happen. I imagine, after seeing that Johnson letter to hunt, that there are conservative mps having conversations about how they will put a stop to his gallop as we speak. He simply doesn't have the numbers to achieve it without the changes to WA he's never going to get.

MrMusician18

First Up wrote: »

If we don't police the EU border in Ireland, it will be policed between Ireland and the rest of the EU. The procedures may be at the Irish port of departure or the EU port of arrival but there will be procedures.

The UK came within days of brexiting last March and there was no evidence of any plan on the ground to collect tariffs or export controls at any Irish port. This lack of action on the ground obviously points out the Irish strategy. They do not believe the UK will leave without a deal or that if it does leave without a deal that that position is unsustainable in the short term or that if it somehow manages to maintain a no deal environment the EU is willing to allow Ireland time to erect the infrastructure necessary to stay in the single market and align itself with the treaties again. The latter means custom posts on the border, because if it came to it the border economy is far less important than seamless exporting for the MNCs that are based here.

I cannot see any situation where the Irish government imposes controls at our own ports unless the EU position of solidarity with Ireland is completely abandoned.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Johnson: "The Irish Taoiseach has already suggested that any further extension would be subject to the condition that the UK holds a second referendum."

That is a serious misrepresentation of what Varadkar actually said, which was this: "So I think an extension could really only happen to facilitate something like a General Election in the UK or perhaps something like a second referendum if they decided to have one."

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers. Can't see there is any dealing with the man at all.

Also, Varadkar was saying that he personally would be open to an extension but it was other states who were opposing it.

serfboard

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Johnson: "The Irish Taoiseach has already suggested that any further extension would be subject to the condition that the UK holds a second referendum."

That is a serious misrepresentation of what Varadkar actually said ...

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers.

@FrancieBrady: this is why you don't "show all your cards" to the Brexiteers - because this is what happens when you do.

Leroy42

It is just the UK playing silly games with itself, trying to blame everyone else and not looking for a solution.

When they first started 3 years ago many felt it must be part of some grand scheme, a cunning plan, to play the EU. But it turns out that this is it. They have nothing for hopes and dreams that something will work out.

Of course the large irony in all of this is how quick the UK is willing to accept that they are being pushed around not only by the EU but also Ireland, when they continue to believe that they are so important and will simply get everyone to agree with them.

mm_surf

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I cannot see any situation where the Irish government imposes controls at our own ports unless the EU position of solidarity with Ireland is completely abandoned.

I would be shocked controls for beef and milk/dairy weren’t put in place (in the event of a no-deal brexit)
Irish food carries a premium, and those would be at risk in the event of a porous border. Was done for the foot&mouth risk. I can easily see farmers getting a bit militant about it!

M.