Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

How can even the most unicornist of Brexiters not acknowledge that any change to the border in the north is because they voted for the stupidity that is Brexit?

Dominic Raab on the radio today said that it is ultimately the EU’s fault if there’s a no deal Brexit, basically because they wouldn’t give the UK everything they want, or compromise on the four pillars. His sense of superiority is quite something. He’s the epitome of all that is wrong with the British public school system, where humility seems to be viewed as a weakness.

VinLieger

Shelga wrote: »

How can even the most unicornist of Brexiters not acknowledge that any change to the border in the north is because they voted for the stupidity that is Brexit?

Because they don't care what happens in the North so they will say and do anything to get their precious Brexit over the line.

FreudianSlippers

volchitsa wrote: »

But that is complete delusion, especially from people for whom one of the major issues with the EU was the need to "control our borders". And there's really no point in trying to reason with someone who is delusional. They will just take what you've said and integrate it into their fantasy. Or dismiss it.

That delusion unfortunately is still being peddled not only on here but in the media and in the UK generally - that it's the EU that will need to put up a border; that it's all an EU thing and Ireland should be siding with the UK on this.

The first major mis-step as I said on here months ago was accepting the UK's "red lines" which framed the deal being pitched to them as opposed to vice versa.

Leroy42

Accepting the red lines? What was the alternative?

It was their choice, nothing we could have done. All we could do, and did do, was lay out the possible outcomes based on the red lines

Sam Russell

Shelga wrote: »

How can even the most unicornist of Brexiters not acknowledge that any change to the border in the north is because they voted for the stupidity that is Brexit?

Dominic Raab on the radio today said that it is ultimately the EU’s fault if there’s a no deal Brexit, basically because they wouldn’t give the UK everything they want, or compromise on the four pillars. His sense of superiority is quite something. He’s the epitome of all that is wrong with the British public school system, where humility seems to be viewed as a weakness.

Dominic Raab is the guy who did not know that Dover was near Calais.

Dominic Raab, who was Brexit Secretary, said in a Commons Committee that he had never read the GFA - all 38 pages of it, despite how pivotal it was to Brexit negotiations.

Dominic Raab was the guy who was appointed Brexit Secretary and went over to Brussels, thumped the table, rescinded all the already agreed matters, and went back home and was sacked or resigned to spend more time gardening in quick order.

He is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

mickoneill31

The UK has red lines. So does the EU. That's fine.

The problem is when the UKs contradict each other. But they set them. They have to figure out how to untangle them.

Strazdas

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

That delusion unfortunately is still being peddled not only on here but in the media and in the UK generally - that it's the EU that will need to put up a border; that it's all an EU thing and Ireland should be siding with the UK on this.

The first major mis-step as I said on here months ago was accepting the UK's "red lines" which framed the deal being pitched to them as opposed to vice versa.

Brexiteers keep speaking as if it is a binary UK-Ireland issue, when in fact it is an EU Single Market - UK one. I don't think a lot of them even fully understand this.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Brexiteers keep speaking as if it is a binary UK-Ireland issue, when in fact it is an EU Single Market - UK one. I don't think a lot of them even fully understand this.

I hope the Irish do. I don't really keep tabs but I would hate for Irish people to get the impression that anyone but the British is responsible for the erection of a border with Northern Ireland.

I think the Brexiters are getting ready to justify the Brexit economic catastrophe by laying down the foundations for a long term case for blaming Ireland and the EU for the mess before they begin project Singapore-on-Thames which will miraculously be the next unicorn to be sold to the British public.

Seth Brundle

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I hope the Irish do. I don't really keep tabs but I would hate for Irish people to get the impression that anyone but the British is responsible for the erection of a border with Northern Ireland.

I think 99.9% of Irish people realise the sheer idiocy of the Uk position and how the Irish are in no way responsible for it.
The other 0.1% think Irexit is a good idea.

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I think 99.9% of Irish people realise the sheer idiocy of the Uk position and how the Irish are in no way responsible for it.
The other 0.1% think Irexit is a good idea.

I'm specifically talking about the border though. There are people who will spread misinformation and unless the government takes the initiative, there's a risk that an Irexit movement could make it into Ireland's equivalent of the £350 million a week for the NHS. As I said, I'm not well up on how Irish people view Brexit but I think this is a legitimate area of concern.

kunst nugget

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm specifically talking about the border though. There are people who will spread misinformation and unless the government takes the initiative, there's a risk that an Irexit movement could make it into Ireland's equivalent of the £350 million a week for the NHS. As I said, I'm not well up on how Irish people view Brexit but I think this is a legitimate area of concern.

Well, the only way we'll be able to get rid of the border on this island if we leave the EU is if a) there's a border poll and the North joins the Republic or b) the Republic joins the UK.

I can't see joining the UK being a great prospect for getting mass acceptance of the Irexit movement.

Seth Brundle

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'm specifically talking about the border though. There are people who will spread misinformation and unless the government takes the initiative, there's a risk that an Irexit movement could make it into Ireland's equivalent of the £350 million a week for the NHS. As I said, I'm not well up on how Irish people view Brexit but I think this is a legitimate area of concern.

IMO people in the republic realise a number of things:
* Brexit is an unjustifiable mess
* NI is not being represented and it's desire to remain is being ignored
* we stand to lose a lot more if an EU border is put between us and "mainland" Europe
* none of this is our doing

If this means that a border goes up then so be it. We did not ask for it nor do we want it but it is a necessary evil.

As for Irexit, whilst I don't think anyone with a level of reasonable mental capacity would consider leaving the best thing that happened this country. However, you're right that the government should be conscious of any BJ or Farage-type bull being spread

seamus

eagle eye wrote: »

I've been hearing that a well organised Brexit will end up costing us big but a disorganised chaotic Brexit means we'll get loads of funding. Is this true?

Sounds like the kind of fantasy stuff that someone invents to try and get support for Brexit tbh. "The EU will give you loads of grants!".

BluePlanet

It's all about the blame game now.

I would rather Leo and Coveney never said they had no plans on putting up border infastructure.

Problem is the media and opposition would be doing nothing but hounding them to spell out WHEN and WHAT infastructure would go up.

MrMusician18

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's all about the blame game now.

I would rather Leo and Coveney never said they had no plans on putting up border infastructure.

Problem is the media and opposition would be doing nothing but hounding them to spell out WHEN and WHAT infastructure would go up.

I think that's what a lot of posters here are forgetting when they say the Irish government should spell out exactly what happens if there is no deal. There had been remarkable unity in Irish politics and that comes from the vagueness of the plans and to be fair the unwillingness of the opposition to press the government on it's plans.

If they came out, well then the opposition would be forced to oppose it, this laying bare divisions in Ireland that the brexiters will press to take advantage of.

serfboard

Since the British do nothing but lie over Brexit and the border specifically, perhaps we should come up with some lies of our own?

Cue a Daily Express/Mail/Telegraph/Ranting Tory Rag headline: "Flood of immigrants expected at the border"

'Irish Government sources have said that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, with no border infrastructure on the British side, they simply will be not able to control the expected deluge of Eastern European immigrants expected to pour into the UK through its the border with the Republic. Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has stated that they are seeing "unprecedented" demand for flights from Romania and Bulgaria to Ireland from October 31st (Brexit day) onwards. "We are really surprised at the number of forward bookings that we are getting on flights from various Eastern European countries to Dublin, and we are going to double our flights, particularly from Romania and Bulgaria to Dublin from November."

From Dublin, it is only a two-hour train or bus journey to Belfast, and with no border posts in place, there will be nothing to stop Eastern European immigrants entering the UK. The Home Office has proposed having immigration checks at ports on the UK mainland, but the DUP are believed to have ruled that out insisting that it will mean that Northern Ireland will be treated differently from the rest of the UK.'

I bet they'd put up a Border infrastructure fairly sharpish in response to articles like that ...

VinLieger

BluePlanet wrote: »

It's all about the blame game now.

I would rather Leo and Coveney never said they had no plans on putting up border infastructure.

Problem is the media and opposition would be doing nothing but hounding them to spell out WHEN and WHAT infastructure would go up.

The opposition have been fully briefed and are on board and agree with the brexit strategy. They know any visible internal disagreement will play right into the UKs hands, exactly like the public ****show the UK are displaying has played right into the EUs hands.

BluePlanet

serfboard wrote: »

I bet they'd put up a Border infrastructure fairly sharpish in response to articles like that ...

I would add a follow-up story, including a grainy photo of a bus of Roma gypsies disembarking, somewhere north of the border.

Capt'n Midnight

lawred2 wrote: »

It's a good read. And I've read pretty much the same rebuttal of that same fantasy multiple times.

Pity noone cares what some 'patronising elitist'* boffin in the FT has to offer..

You can't use article 24 unless the negotiations are nearly complete.
- the UK is tearing up the 595 page Withdrawal Agreement and not yielding on any Red Lines, don't expect negotiations to start anytime soon.


both sides have to agree
- why would the EU agree ?


besides it can be challenged by any WTO member
- like tiny countries like Moldova or "old friends" like New Zealand never mind places like India or China angling for visas



And of course Article 24 doesn't cover services which is the mainstay of the UK economy.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/1143895033738907649

I will look around for the full thing, but this is great.

Frank Bullitt

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mark-francois-on-sky-news-1-6128141

And I have found it...enjoy.

Bit cynical

serfboard wrote: »

Since the British do nothing but lie over Brexit and the border specifically, perhaps we should come up with some lies of our own?

Cue a Daily Express/Mail/Telegraph/Ranting Tory Rag headline: "Flood of immigrants expected at the border"

'Irish Government sources have said that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, with no border infrastructure on the British side, they simply will be not able to control the expected deluge of Eastern European immigrants expected to pour into the UK through its the border with the Republic. Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary has stated that they are seeing "unprecedented" demand for flights from Romania and Bulgaria to Ireland from October 31st (Brexit day) onwards. "We are really surprised at the number of forward bookings that we are getting on flights from various Eastern European countries to Dublin, and we are going to double our flights, particularly from Romania and Bulgaria to Dublin from November."

From Dublin, it is only a two-hour train or bus journey to Belfast, and with no border posts in place, there will be nothing to stop Eastern European immigrants entering the UK. The Home Office has proposed having immigration checks at ports on the UK mainland, but the DUP are believed to have ruled that out insisting that it will mean that Northern Ireland will be treated differently from the rest of the UK.'

I bet they'd put up a Border infrastructure fairly sharpish in response to articles like that ...

I would expect however that nationals of most EU member states will still be able to get visitors visas for the UK after Brexit so it will be easier for them to just fly to London; they just won't have the automatic right to work. It will be more advantagious to them to go to Germany or Ireland or wherever for work.

Shelga

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/1143895033738907649

I will look around for the full thing, but this is great.

Mark Francois makes me cringe at a level I never thought possible. He has not got the slightest clue what he wants, what it means, how to get it, when it would be doable- just spouts on about ‘believing in Brexit’- and ‘a comprehensive free trade agreement’- ie all of the benefits, none of the responsibilities. The expert tells him that a comprehensive trade agreement can still mean tariffs- all of this would have to be worked out over years and years and years. It’s all so far beyond satire now it’s not funny. It’s really scary.

Headshot

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/grahamlithgow/status/1143895033738907649

I will look around for the full thing, but this is great.

Maybe it's just me but if Sky was still part of the Murdoch empire, we wouldnt see that on Sky News. It's a joy to see an expert setting the record straight on the lies peddled by Brexiters

Sky News has really turned the corner

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

You can't use article 24 unless the negotiations are nearly complete.
- the UK is tearing up the 595 page Withdrawal Agreement and not yielding on any Red Lines, don't expect negotiations to start anytime soon.


both sides have to agree
- why would the EU agree ?


besides it can be challenged by any WTO member
- like tiny countries like Moldova or "old friends" like New Zealand never mind places like India or China angling for visas



And of course Article 24 doesn't cover services which is the mainstay of the UK economy.

It really is amazing that the brexiteers expect the EU to bend when faced with Johnson as PM when the latter shows less than zero understanding of a basic trade principle. Sending the likes of Mark Francois onto Sky to bicker the point with a trade expert just shows how farcical the whole thing is becoming.

As I understand it, what they are trying to argue (completely in vain) is that GATT Art 24 allows them to have an implementation period with zero tariffs if the EU agrees and they are working towards a permanent free trade deal. So lets just draw up a one page document setting out that aim, get both signatures and away they both go, trading tariff free both ways. Or so the theory goes.

Except, they can't do this. Because, as per WTO rules, for Art 24 to apply all other aspects of trade have to be settled first, including regulatory alignment standards, trade in services etc. Services trade is governed by GATS and the only way to get past this is by passing the WA. So, whatever way they spin it, it all comes back to WA. No WA, absolutely no way of trading tariff free under Art 24. If they bothered reading their own HOC literature or listening to the actual experts, they'd know that in 10 minutes.

kunst nugget

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/mark-francois-on-sky-news-1-6128141

And I have found it...enjoy.

Honestly, the petulant ignorance on display by Mark Francois is kind of frightening.

Joe_ Public

Headshot wrote: »

Maybe it's just me but if Sky was still part of the Murdoch empire, we wouldnt see that on Sky News. It's a joy to see an expert setting the record straight on the lies peddled by Brexiters

Sky News has really turned the corner

From what I've seen it has really upped its game over the past couple of months, particularly in terms of having Irish and European voices on to give a different perspective on the awful spin spewing daily from Brexiteer sources. Adam Boulton is probably my favourite interviewer, very low key and restrained, but gets the job done with great efficiency.

Not sure I'd be handing out any gongs to broadcasters on the GATT24 issue, though. That was absolutely blown out of the water over here many months ago, just shows how far behind they are in the UK when that issue is only getting this kind of attention now.

Mr.Nice Guy

Don't know if it was mentioned but thought it was interesting that known Brexiter Julia Hartley-Brewer today tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1143893495956037632

So now we're firmly into the territory of Brexit > 'the precious Union.'

Also saw Gordon Brown warning that a Johnson premiership could mean the break-up of the UK. Meanwhile the English establishment seems tone-deaf about the wishes of the Scots as seen in this amazing discussion:

https://twitter.com/lumi_1984/status/1143587403770322947

"For goodness sake, Scotland by itself? How's it going to survive?"

"What does it have? Oil, and a monster in a lake?"

I can't see the Scots putting up with British politics 2019-style for much longer.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Mark Francois makes me cringe at a level I never thought possible. He has not got the slightest clue what he wants, what it means, how to get it, when it would be doable- just spouts on about ‘believing in Brexit’- and ‘a comprehensive free trade agreement’- ie all of the benefits, none of the responsibilities. The expert tells him that a comprehensive trade agreement can still mean tariffs- all of this would have to be worked out over years and years and years. It’s all so far beyond satire now it’s not funny. It’s really scary.

Mark Francois speaking about the potential loss of 120,000 jobs in the event of No Deal tarriffs: "Yes but it would be our choice." Adam Bolton in response: You have the choice to blow your own head off but that doesn't mean you blow your head off. "

Professor Moriarty

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Don't know if it was mentioned but thought it was interesting that known Brexiter Julia Hartley-Brewer today tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1143893495956037632

So now we're firmly into the territory of Brexit > 'the precious Union.'

Also saw Gordon Brown warning that a Johnson premiership could mean the break-up of the UK. Meanwhile the English establishment seems tone-deaf about the wishes of the Scots as seen in this amazing discussion:

https://twitter.com/lumi_1984/status/1143587403770322947

"For goodness sake, Scotland by itself? How's it going to survive?"

"What does it have? Oil, and a monster in a lake?"

I can't see the Scots putting up with British politics 2019-style for much longer.

Yer man goes on to bolster his argument by saying that Scotland leaving the UK "would hurt the Queen." Oh well, that's Scottish independence put to bed so.